The News Corporation tabloids take a second bite of the Galaxy cherry in successive weekends, to mark the occasion of the looming Liberal leadership spill. It confirms last week’s shattering result for Tony Abbott in putting the Labor lead at 57-43. The inevitable questions on voting intention under Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop aren’t quite as dramatic as ReachTEL’s, with Labor maintaining leads of 51-49 under a Turnbull scenario and 53-47 under Bishop. On a straight question of whether Tony Abbott should resign, 55% say yes and 35% say no, in case anyone’s wondering what might distinguish this leadership change from what happened in 2010. Primary votes and such to follow. HT: GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: All primary votes were perfectly unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 36%, Labor on 43%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 3%. A further question found only 24% anticipating that Tony Abbott would lead the Liberals to the next election, compared with 63% who believe he will not.
sprocket_@50
Recently sold I believe – according to media anyway.
Hockey said
[It is a very difficult period to govern anywhere in the world]
Which, as Bernard Keane points out, was not Hockey’s view when the ALP was in power and the LNP was running for office as an ‘adult government’.
It hard to see how what looks like straight down the line corruption is a poison pill for Labor. Grounds for a Royal Commission I would have thought.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/east-west-the-publicprivate-project-from-hell-20150206-137mj5.html
Dave, he actually used to have 2 farms adjoining each other.
Still owns the larger one.
The Hockey family assets are extensive with multiple properties
Happiness … You’ve left out Scott Emerson … 😉
Maybe some sitting Lib will stand down and give Campbell Newman a crack at being PM. that would be a strong choice.
😉
Ta sprocket
Lucky him – no wonder the cigars.
Poor people don’t drive cars ya know…
Joe Hockey does say some dumb things, like :
– finding wind farms on Lake George offensive cause it spoilt his view
– the poor aren’t concerned about petrol excise increase cause they don’t drive far
– we work half the year for the tax man
And the list goes on and on and on
Maybe Laurie’s worked out Abbott hasn’t nixed the Britisher citizenship.
sprocket_@57
Most of which went unchallenged in media interviews etc…until they were challenged and then he fell to earth.
Now a lot more of his BS is being challenged, but not all.
Surely they have brighter bears at Menzies House ?
No. Really ?
This is as good as it gets ?
Rossmore @ 16: You note the cigars on budget day as a turning point. But the coalition were behind in the polls even before the budget: most unusual for a new government.
I’d put the turning point a bit earlier, in March last year, marked by two events: the first announcement of knights and dames, and Senator Brandis’s “people have a right to be bigots” statement. Both highlighted a fundamental wackiness at high levels of government which struck me then as likely to end in tears all around.
Whatever the arguments now flying around, the coalition should defenestrate Mr Abbott for one reason: the public have come to perceive, quite correctly, that he simply lacks the abilities needed in a Prime Minister
If the Sunday Tele’s peace deal gets up, that would be even better, blow 2 leaders for the price of one.
From preveious thread
Kezza @ 573:
“I don’t hate men (misandry), I’m just over the way they couldn’t give a rat’s arse about kids, unless they’re their own. Or related to them.”
Utterly offensive crap. I.m 54, was married for 18 years, raised two stepchildren, who I loved (and do). I teach swimming to toddlers one night a week – including kids with learning difficulties. I am not these kids’ relative, but I love them all.
You have a bitter and twisted (and incorrect) perception of many (but not all) men.
Re turning points, even earlier, remember when the government went to ground, and the ALP were doing the leadership hallow between Shorten and Albanese.
And then in November Pyne said they were not doing Gonski.
Looks like Shorten’ s god is delivering something better than Abbott to the election. The fractures within the Liberals are becoming obvious to all.
[Maybe Laurie’s worked out Abbott hasn’t nixed the Britisher citizenship.]
Would be a convenient excuse for the Libs to dump Abbott.
And my dream team is Bishop for PM (the old white men that write right wing rubbish will have trouble dealing with that); Turnull for deputy (he will have trouble dealing with that) and Morrison for treasurer (for the shear joy of watching him flonder)..
One of the few people i have read who continually tackles Hockey’s version of reality … no make that lies … is greg jericho.
I the unlikely event Hockey remains treasurer a few gallery hacks would do well to read Jericho’s columns at The Guardian.
Frednk
The old white men who write right wing rubbish will fawn all over Bishop and the women will be fixated with her fashions.
Just wait till she shows up in new glasses.
Just me @ 65: It would be enough to find that he had been elected a few times before he dropped his UK citizenship, even if he’s now got it sorted out. For in that case, he would have broken the law by making a false declaration of qualification in a nomination form – a bit like the PUP candidate in Ferny Grove, Qld – and the penalty for making such a false declaration at a federal election is 12 months in prison, which could then bring into play the disqualification set out in s.44 of the Constitution.
frednk @ 64
[Looks like Shorten’ s god is delivering something better than Abbott to the election.]
Clearly the jesuit god favours Melbourne Jesuits over Sydney Jesuits.
[Kezza @ 573:
“I don’t hate men (misandry), I’m just over the way they couldn’t give a rat’s arse about kids, unless they’re their own. Or related to them.”]
This would have to be one of the most stupid posts in PB history.
Lefty E @ 22:
Champion post 🙂
From pedant
[I’d put the turning point a bit earlier …]
Back in the previous thread Victoria had a link to and a quote from Philip Coorey which basically said Abbott was in deep strife from the May budget.
So I went and had a look at the PM approval/disapproval/netsat numbers from Newspoll.
The election was in Sept 2013.
The first Newspoll after gave Abbott a positive netsat of 13 from 47:34
Then 45:38 for +7
3rd Newspoll gave him 42:42 for 0
In 3 Newspolls he had lost 13 satisfaction points.
That was the honeymoon.
Dec. 6th gave him his first negative, -5, then the following:
-5
-16
-12
-17
-21
In early May the approaching budget became an issue and his netsat plummeted to -30.
And has been badly negative since.
It took only a few months for the Oz people to start to wake up to Abbott and the COALition government.
fredex @ 73: Thanks for those interesting figures, which strike me as profoundly significant. Usually at this point in a life of a government, oppositions if they are lucky are just starting to make a bit of headway. People vote in a new government, and like to tell themselves they got it right. So opposition criticisms sound like sour grapes. The extraordinary thing about Mr Shorten’s situation is that in criticising the government he has been able to channel public opinion rather than having to fight it. ,
The Libs are fooling themselves if they think replacing Hockey with Turnbull, and tossing Credlin will save Abbott.
The voters have made their mind up about him and have stopped listening (same thing happened to Gillard). It’s irreversible. He’s a rotting political carcass waiting to be cut down.
ImStickingWithTony 😀
Happiness @ 71;
Agreed. In a month (or so) of wackiness/offensiveness, I think we can close the betting.
The end of Neo-liberalism
___________________
The end of neo-liberalism around the world may be dawning as we see in Europe and here in Australia at the moment
The various disasters afflicting the Liberal Party here are part of a general public refusal everywhere to accept the doctrines of austerity…permanent austerity..as a way of life …for the 99% while the ruling capitalist slass live high on the hog
The Neo-libs assault on the welfare state and all govt intervention is part of the history of capitalism,and in the recent Qland ,Vic elections and also those in Europe especially in the case of Greece…and soon too in Spain and in Scotland at the coming elections there ,….will be a major blow against the the neo-libs …and the growing chaos inside the conservative parties here is another function of this crisis
Liberal backbenchers on <10% should tweet:
#ImstinkingwithTony
[Foreign Minister Greg Hunt]
LOL
This whole spill thing is throwing up some real comedy gems.
I want it to be Prime Minister Turnbull but my waters* still tell me Prime Minister Bishop
*I hope its just a urinary tract infection……
Kezza
Two men I can name who have empathy with other people men woman and children.
Julian Burnside and David Manne. Continually speaking up out of empathy and a sense of justice for the powerless in detention centres.
The Liberal partyroom will have to hold their nose either way — Turnbull for his leadership style and ETS policy indulgences — and Bishop for her being a woman (and a relative competent one at that)!
Oh boy, do they deserve this karma!
No wonder poor Gillard was rushed to hospital the other day with a bad case of Schadenfreude
not to mention about 4 billion others that could be listed since the dawn of time….
DL
Its not a Karma Bus. Its a Convoy!
[Two men I can name who have empathy with other people men woman and children.
Julian Burnside and David Manne. Continually speaking up out of empathy and a sense of justice for the powerless in detention centres.]
Oh rubbish, you can do better than that to refute Kezza’s crazy rants.
Those are two lawyers who want to enact publicly policy through the courts rather than elected office.
If they genuinely wanted to help the plight of the world’s disadvantaged, they would leave their lawyers’ picnic here and head to refugee camps and volunteer their services.
The “true believers” really don’t like folk who fight for the downtrodden and disadvantaged asylum seekers, do they?
Pricking the conscience too much, eh?
deblonay
you old commo – what would you know – what alternative ?
deblonay
pardon but your ongoing support for putin rings in my ears – putin is the topic for neo liberalism – get your philosophy together man
“@JohnBirmingham: #ImStickingWithTony because my columns write themselves when he’s around.”
[I want it to be Prime Minister Turnbull but my waters* still tell me Prime Minister Bishop
*I hope its just a urinary tract infection……]
Pis#ing in the wind.
Talc wouldn’t make it through an election.
deblonay:
The conservatives won massively in Canada, the US Congress, and Germany.
The #ImStickingWithTony hashtag has trended in such a way that it has been used by critics to hilariously exploit it similar to those corporate hashtag fails.
Happiness@91
Actually there has been some reversals in Canada with the Liberals taking back states from the Conservatives.
And Germany has become a grand coalition of conservatives and the social democrats.
Goodnight
Me too….
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/02/liberal-spill-and-poll-roundup-trouble.html
Liberal Spill And Poll Roundup: The Trouble With Political Jokes
Aggregate 55.6 to ALP (highest of term)
Probably the most important bit of this for anyone in a hurry is the track record of leaders who faced spill motions or contested leadership contests. I can find thirteen previous examples, of which five were booted immediately, seven were booted in a later challenge in the same term or resigned, and just one made it to the next election (and lost). The historical precedents are exceptionally bleak for Tony Abbott, unless this is somehow not what it seems and can be sorted out to the extent that the motion is withdrawn (which seems unlikely).
[The conservatives won massively in … the US Congress] but they have a massive gerrymander to do it don’t they? Essentially they cheat?
There is a extra-ordinary parallel in the way both Gillard and Abbott lost popularity, especially is you start just from the stat of their rule as PM post election. JG as PM June- Sep 10 was more of campaign mode than rule.
Neither was well loved on election ie both were seen as flawed but better than alternative. Now I have kept an excel sheet (yes I know get a life) which tracked the performance of Gillard and more recently Abbott. Their level of support is rated according to how the public sees them as a person, according to how well they manage leadership/vision and how competent they are at governing.
Each started off with relatively similar public assessments with Abbott seen as more competent,largely thanks to Peta Credlin and his gaffe free period as LOTO and to a very friendly press.
The decline in their ratings has been eerily similar, with both making geese of themselves on Australia day. However whereas Gillard made a slight gain in perception thanks to CHOGM in WA in November 2011, Abbott made a right idiot of himself at the G20. This is why Rudd’s challenge in 2012 failed whereas Bishop/Turnbull for Abbott will probably succeed.
[Their level of support is rated according to how the public sees them as a person, according to how well they manage leadership/vision and how competent they are at governing.]
And as to how they are presented in the media.
Gillard was smeared before she became PM and afterwards by a hostile media, Murdoch’s minions in particular. Relentlessly.
Abbott had a dream run for several years eg “We need Tony” and only very recently has there been any semblance of criticism fair or otherwise.
As Tony Jones said, belatedly, to Mirabella on QANDA- “JONES: Does it help when Rupert Murdoch is on your side?”
[[The conservatives won massively in … the US Congress] but they have a massive gerrymander to do it don’t they? Essentially they cheat?]
More or less.
In 2012, the Republicans won 234 seats (a majority), with just 47.6% of the total vote while the Democrats won 201 seats with 48.8%.
The gerrymander is more pronounced during presidential elections because the turnout is more representative of the general population.
Mid-terms are a different story with a very skewed turn out to the white and well-heeled, as we saw recently with 2014, where the Republicans actually did get a majority of the vote:
Republicans won 247 seats with 51% and Democrats won 188 with 45.3%.