ReachTEL: 55-45 to Labor

ReachTEL finds Malcolm Turnbull clearly favoured over Julie Bishop clearly favoured Tony Abbott.

Courtesy of the Seven Network, ReachTEL plays the beloved leadership crisis card of gauging voting intention under the current leader and the alternative. The results under Tony Abbott’s leadership are slightly worse than in the poll taken just before Australia Day, with Labor up 1.2% to 41.4% and the Coalition down 1.3%, with the Greens and Palmer United all but unchanged at 11.2% and 2.7%. Two-party preferred moves one point in Labor’s favour to 55-45. The kickers are the findings that the Coalition would be leading 54-46 under Malcolm Turnbull and 51-49 under Julie Bishop – with the usual caveat added that such questions present partisan opponents with an opportunity to lodge a tactical vote against the incumbent. A head-to-head question rates Malcolm Turnbull ahead of Julie Bishop 56.5-43.5, but with Bishop having a 54.4-45.6 edge among Coalition voters. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 3502.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

719 comments on “ReachTEL: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Tom,

    To my thinking, picking someone who you agree with, or concurs with your particular ideology will have more to do with it than whether or not the polls say Turnbull is popular.

    Morrison may put his hand up, but only if he’s done a deal with the other front benchers and knows he will at least get more votes than Abbott.

    In a run off between Morrison and Turnbull I think Morrison will win, purely on ideology.

  2. Question@651

    I’ve seen a bit of “No shit Sherlock” from the MSM this week.

    We’ve all seen a lot of it this week. They have known it as many many bludgers have called it for so long.

    Shame on them! Shame on them for only now saying it – calling nonsense.

    Now they report it, now that most are saying enough.

    Fairfax saying give the tories another chance in Qld last week.

    Most of the current media are an utter disgrace. The web based independent media are the ones setting the standard.

  3. Kezza may rant and rave, but occassionnally gets it right.

    Bishop J should be the short-priced favourite to take over when Tony Abbott goes under the political bus on Tuesday. But why not?

    Why is Turnbull in with a shot? He had his chance and failed. The partyroom doesn’t abide his social policies (and ETS FFS!) nor his leadership style. Yet — he is the favourite?

    Bishop for all her asbestos and plagerising faults, has been the most competent Minister (low bar to be sure).

    The Liberal Party is deeply sexist and this is why Bishop has no chance on Tuesday.

  4. Laocoon

    [ Another item to catch my eye was the price of The Australian back in 1972 – 7 cents!

    Now it is apparently $2.50. That is 8.9%pa growth. CPI over that time has been 5.5%pa, so a really big 3.4% real increase.

    Given the “cost” of the underlying “commodity”, information, has collapsed over the last decade or so, amazing relative price change. ]

    You have to keep in mind that fewer and fewer people actually pay for their copy of the Australian these days. Most copies are given away gratis – or go straight to landfill unread – to keep up the circulation numbers.

  5. kezza, are you serious?

    I have no problem Julie Bishop going for the leadership. I’m questioning whether she actually wants it. Like seriously. I think she’s got a serious problem of misogyny in her party, and that’s not going to be fun to deal with, but hey… politics is tough.

    But to imply that somehow women are more empathic? Absolute tosh. I’ve known some absolute hard-ass bitches in my life, and I’m known some guys that are complete and utter assholes. I’ve also known sweet men and women in equal measure.

    Sex does not equate with personality. You’re talking like you agree with Abbotts return to the 50’s.

  6. kA 2 – way back @467

    [Sounds so dopey Phil the Greek of Denmark, and silly Liz of Germany]

    Sorry to be pedantic (and I’m no fan of the royals) but Elizabeth 2, whilst certainly having a lot of German ancestry, is, through her mother, about a quarter Scottish and a quarter English. Even beyond all the German ancestry, there is Scottish blood via the Stuarts (Sophie, who married the Elector of Hanover was a Stuart and was, for a time, heiress presumptive to the British throne).

  7. Victoria 680 amazing quote from Chris Kenny.

    Dripping with hubris, conceit and arrogance. For a couple of months Kenny and his ilk lived the dream of a right wing, tea party government with Abbott as the perfect dear leader. Abbott appeared in the press about once a fortnight and seemed to be getting away with it.

    The moment when it started to unravel is now etched in this country’s political history. The Treasurer and his Finance Minister chomping on expensive cigars after handing down the most brutal budget in memory.

    Funny how pride so often comes before a fall.

  8. > Kezza : Seriously blokes,
    > How do you defend Abbott, the man?

    I don’t. I’m not the one trying to make generalizations about sexes, and using him as a poster-boy for ‘men’. He’d be just as distasteful with a vagina, just like Gina Reinhardt would be with a penis.

    You’re the one making sweeping generalizations about sexes. Abbott is a thug. He uses his advantages to bully others, and I’ve seen women do when they’ve had the same character faults and the same opportunity.

  9. 714

    He is a Lord, having inherited his title from his father. But because of Tony Blair/Labour`s 1998 reform`s to the House of Lords, kicking out the hereditary peers and replacing them with 92 elected representatives of the hereditary peers, he is not a member but could be if he won election.

  10. Kezza @ 573:

    “I don’t hate men (misandry), I’m just over the way they couldn’t give a rat’s arse about kids, unless they’re their own. Or related to them.”

    Utterly offensive crap. I.m 54, was married for 18 years, raised two stepchildren, who I loved (and do). I teach swimming to toddlers one night a week – including kids with learning difficulties. I am not these kids’ relative, but I love them all.

    You have a bitter and twisted (and incorrect) perception of many (but not all) men.

  11. Turnbull just said :

    I respect the party room. You can never consult with the party room enough.

    A direct attack on Tony Abbott and his “Captain’s Pick” and a boost for himself as being “Consultative”!

  12. Angry Anderson quits as Nationals candidate for Cessnock for “personal reasons”

    Well, we don’t need Angry Anderson to save us from the Carbon Tax money being funneled to the United Nations to establish a One World Government any more, do we? Not now that Tony has abolished it. No reason for him to go into politics now.

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