ReachTEL: 55-45 to Labor

ReachTEL finds Malcolm Turnbull clearly favoured over Julie Bishop clearly favoured Tony Abbott.

Courtesy of the Seven Network, ReachTEL plays the beloved leadership crisis card of gauging voting intention under the current leader and the alternative. The results under Tony Abbott’s leadership are slightly worse than in the poll taken just before Australia Day, with Labor up 1.2% to 41.4% and the Coalition down 1.3%, with the Greens and Palmer United all but unchanged at 11.2% and 2.7%. Two-party preferred moves one point in Labor’s favour to 55-45. The kickers are the findings that the Coalition would be leading 54-46 under Malcolm Turnbull and 51-49 under Julie Bishop – with the usual caveat added that such questions present partisan opponents with an opportunity to lodge a tactical vote against the incumbent. A head-to-head question rates Malcolm Turnbull ahead of Julie Bishop 56.5-43.5, but with Bishop having a 54.4-45.6 edge among Coalition voters. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 3502.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

719 comments on “ReachTEL: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Vic,

    I’ve seen a bit of “No shit Sherlock” from the MSM this week.

    Abbott’s complex election strategy… “magic puddings work for grown-up’s”… was just so impenetrable.

    (“Grown-up’s” is a term most often used by children).

  2. [ If his honeymoon does turn the polls around I imagine it would be more difficult for him to call a snap poll now (although I’m sure some BS reason could be manufactured), but such calculations are a bit too cute for him to pass this opportunity by. ]

    His only reason would be to deal with “Senate Obstruction” but he doesn’t have a DD trigger and there is no point to a house only election. Now, if there was a hot topical DD trigger available it would be a different story. We are months away from that, i reckon Sept/Oct soonest. He may find himself in a position to do that if he takes over later in the year?? Will be a different landscape by then.

  4. That’s my impression also imacca, I don’t think it would go down well to have a snap poll now… bit too transparent.

    I think being PM is higher on his mind than such detail. He would be mad not to run IMO.

  5. I can’t be bothered reading/listening to this recent badmouthing of Abbott by journalists and commentators all of a sudden because their party is behind in the polls. 95% of the media praised or protected Abbott for years – ABC, Fairfax, News, the lot. It is all a bit sickening now. It will be no different under Turnbull, Bishop or what-not, although Tony is even more repugnant than your average tory.

  7. [Michael Mance ‏@michael_mance 5m5 minutes ago
    #ImStickingWithTony because Australia needs a Minister of Women who is happy to promote Feminism at the pub. #auspol]

    Walk like a man, talk like a man, Walk like a man Weeeeoohohoh,
    Drink like a man. Geezuz fuckin Christ.

  8. Billy McMahon was simultaneously PM and Minister for Foreign Affairs for a few months.
    When Whitlam resigned the foreign office he created outrage by saying he was Australia’s greatest foreign minister ever. He qualified this by pointing out that he was only comparing himself with McMahon, Nigel Bowen and Lesley Bury (God help us). Before 1970 the position was Minister of External Affairs because it was the PM’s job to deal with Mother and the Dominions and the MEA dealt with alien countries.

  9. Were Turnbull to be strategic, he’d probably be better off giving Abbott a tiny bit more rope – say, to immediately after the NSW election – to really make any victory emphatic. Right now the hard right waverers will run back to Abbott as soon as they realise Morrison’s too smart to be their martyr.

    But I think he challenges if the spill gets up.

  10. There were two strong female leaders unnecessarily smashed in the last few years and doubt either would be gloating over the state of politics as Rudd would be (yes Bligh and Gillard). Bishop is not in the same league despite appearing on Good News Week….

  12. [ Walk like a man, talk like a man, ]

    He doesn’t walk like a man at all. More like a great ape straining not to knuckle walk.

    You can argue the sexism stuff with whoever you like Kezza, but if you point to Abbott as an example of a “man” then you lose.

    If you were looking for an example of troglodyte wan&er then……

  13. teh_

    The timing is a bit soon for Turnbull, but if he doesn’t go now, and Abbott or someone else gets the polls competitive (say 48% tpp) then he might miss out.

  14. A number of things could possibly go wrong in the world in the next 18 months:

    – the workd economy could go down the toilet. I don’t have much faith in world markets or the financial system
    – current conflicts could escalate into something far more serious: think Ukraine, the Middle East, or possibly trouble between China and its neighbours, especially Japan

    I don’t want Abbott’s hands anywhere near the levers of power in this country at the time any of these might come to pass.

    So hopefully Abbott’s gone sooner rather than later.

  15. And if Bishop has even the slightest ambition to be PM, this is her chance. Her stock’s never been higher, the alternatives have never been more offputting for the Liberals, and she can run as a compromise candidate between Abbott’s lunacy and Turnbull’s leftacy.

    Let the electorate sort out the Gillard attack hypocrisy stuff. Let the party sort out their issues with a female leader. She’ll never get the stick Gillard got from News because she’s the “right” party. If she seizes the day, the field is hers.

    And if she doesn’t want it, that’s fine too.

  16. Anyone seen a news.com report saying Turnbull is going to run with bishop for deputy and maybe morrison as treasurer. Supposedly they will announce tomorrow.

    A friend telling me this.

    ?

  17. Seriously blokes,
    How do you defend Abbott, the man?

    The punch-drunk bastard at uni – where he intimidated a woman candidate for the SRC after he lost the election?

    The punch-drunk bastard at uni – where he intimidated a woman candidate for the SRC by putting his hand between her legs?

    Or did you actually think that was funny? Not worth reporting?
    Come on, be honest.

    Would you have supported his no-gay stance? Were you all a bit intimidated?

    This bloke, who put his hand between a woman’s legs was a Catholic boy determining whether or not to be a Catholic priest.

    And he knew precisely what he was doing. That is was, for Catholic women, the most disgraceful thing a woman could allow a man to do.

    He knew that. And he did that. And he had three sisters.

    And a mother.

    Yet he determined to disgrace all the women in his family.

    And he did.

  20. Turnbull might become PM but he deserves it the least. After more than 10 years, some as Minister, I can’t recall a single good policy that he has initiated. He has just about destroyed the NBN, changed his position on the climate,, gone quiet on SSM, doesn’t utter the word “Republic “. And he supported every elemented of an unfair budget. He going to get in with others doing all the hard work for him.
    As much as a dint like Abbott and PETA, you have to agree that they put in the hard yakkas to save the Liberals and to get them into power. Turnbull 1 was destroying the Libs.

  23. I don’t believe many of PB would even defend Abbott to save their own life.

    And I’m pretty angry to hear too of Barbara Ramjan just being hushed up over the whole incident.

  26. Should Turnbull (or anyone else) get up on Tuesday, I don’t see why they woukd feel the need to go to an early election. There was nonsuch expectation of Paull Keating when he took over from Bob Hawke. The next election was held when due 16 months later. Had Peter Costello taken over from John Howard in 2006, it most likely woukd have been similar.

    I think that a successor would attempt a genuine barnacle clean / reset, have a honeymoon, get the budget out of the way and have 15-18 months to consolidate and rebuild the Liberal’s stocks.

    The situation in 2010 was different in that an election was due in 5 months. Even so, Julia Gillard might have been better to wait for November / December rather than try to rush on the Mining Tax and ‘East Timor’ solution.

  29. Steve,

    Just chewing over strategy. Fixing the LNP brand is a bit harder than enjoying a honeymoon. Good polls will buy plenty of discipline in the LNP, but they don’t really like Turnbull in the party room.

  31. Steve – I believe the idea of an early election for Turnbull is to take advantage of the honeymoon period of “thank f- it’s not Abbott” to lock in another 3 years.

    The implied fear, for the Liberals, I think being that the electorate will sour on Malcolm once they realise he’s just an IPA wolf in a moderate sheepskin.

  32. Remember Steve Lewis ex-NewsCorpse hit man ? Also Chris Uhlmann’s mate and Ashby urger. Now writing for the New Daily, his latest posted tonight

    [Facing a backbench revolt – and with every opinion poll, public and private, showing he’s toxic with voters – Tony Abbott is staring at almost certain political death. The Prime Minister might survive Tuesday’s leadership spill but it’s extremely hard to see how he can survive in the longer term.

    If Abbott wants to give the party the best chances of a swift recovery, he should stand down and spare the party some of the bloodletting.

    The electorate has made up its mind. Voters want to get rid of a national leader who, for a long time, was on probation but who’s now entered the death zone.]

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/02/06/tony-abbott-step/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The+New+Daily+Saturday+7215&utm_content=The+New+Daily+Saturday+7215+CID_fcadeec799f0782cd8948c2e71fcff5a&utm_source=&utm_term=Steve%20Lewis%20Tony%20Abbott%20should%20do%20the%20right%20thing%20and%20step%20aside

  33. Based on purely anecdotal quantitive and qualitative polling, my finding is (with an enormous MOE) that the ladies are quite attracted to Turnbull, politics and policies aside.

  35. Hey chaps

    Thanks for not supporting ABBOTT.

    I’m after the blokes who still are supporting him.

    You’ll notice by their lack of outrage against him that they still probably can’t or won’t give him up.

    They think he’s a man’s man.

    When all he is is a little boy who always expected his folks to bail him out of trouble.

    His parents are just about to cark it, and he still can’t give them peace of mind.

    What an awful son, boy, idiot male.

  39. Kezza,
    You are looking in almost the worst place possible to find men (or women) who will defend Abbott.
    Except TBA. And he’s a troll, so who cares what he thinks?

  41. I’m not sure what I enjoy more – the media getting their pro-Abbott spin spun back at them, or Coalition pollies getting their pre-election nonsense thrown back at them.

    Tell me more about how Abbott’s matured, Chris. Tell me more about that surplus in every budget, Joe.

  42. [The implied fear, for the Liberals, I think being that the electorate will sour on Malcolm once they realise he’s just an IPA wolf in a moderate sheepskin.]

    Or the Party room will sour on Malcolm once they realise he’s a moderate wolf in an IPA sheepskin.

    With him it’s impossible to know.

  43. Some say that Julie Bishop is going to continue to be a good loyal girl and play the bridesmaid role forever. However, I’m not so sure. Sing along with Julie as she wistfully stares into the future and sings her version of the Lionel Richie and the Commodores’ number, “Three times a lady”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4dl6JSf-bc

    Sucks were the times
    Playin’ number two
    To Brendan, Macolm and Tony too
    But now that I’ve come
    To the end of my tether
    Number One pozzie
    Has to be mine

    Been once, twice
    Three times a Depie
    Yes been once, twice
    Three times a Depie
    Callin’ in my dues

    When Brendan was Leader
    All I got to do was
    Change the flat tyre on his van

    But Malcolm took over
    Then Tony with his budgies
    Said I was a good loyal fan

    Been once, twice
    Three times a Depie
    Callin’ in my dues
    Callin’ in my dues

  44. PILLOW TALK:

    “Oh I say Queenie, isn’t it jolly dashed decent of that colonial chappie to give me a knighthood?”
    “Oh yes rather Philly. Isn’t he the chap the Orstralians say is a badger smuggler.
    It makes one think why on earth would one want to smuggle a badger?”
    “Oh yes Queenie – it does sound a frightful bore. The dashed thing is that we will have to give him a title in return.”
    “I know Philly – we can make him a knight of the order of the Royal Brown Nose.”
    “A jolly capital idea Queenie – we can dub him ‘Sir Pository’.”
    “Oh that is super Philly – I am slightly amused.”

    (letter to the Guardian)

    From a facebook friend

  45. Acerbic Conehead

    JULIE BISHOP.

    She was once, twice, three times a LAY-DEE.

    But now, the fourth time?

    She’s descended into the bear pit.

    And I reckon too she’ll be calling in her dues.
    Why wouldn’t she.

    That’s what all the double-speak’s about.

    And if she doesn’t, what a wimp.

    She can’t win, either way, in my book.

  48. drewsky,

    Yes that’s probably the one. What the article did say was..

    [MPs have privately told News Corp that they believe Mr Turnbull will present as a contender for the leadership before the spill motion is due to go ahead on Tuesday.]

    Before the spill motion is the wording.

  50. Raaraa @ 608

    http://australianpolitics.com/lists/first-whitlam-ministry

    Interesting link thanks

    Another item to catch my eye was the price of The Australian back in 1972 – 7 cents!

    Now it is apparently $2.50. That is 8.9%pa growth. CPI over that time has been 5.5%pa, so a really big 3.4% real increase.

    Given the “cost” of the underlying “commodity”, information, has collapsed over the last decade or so, amazing relative price change.

    Had it only kept up with CPI, it would be retailing for $0.67. Imagine how much money News Corp would be losing then 👿

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