ReachTEL: 55-45 to Labor

ReachTEL finds Malcolm Turnbull clearly favoured over Julie Bishop clearly favoured Tony Abbott.

Courtesy of the Seven Network, ReachTEL plays the beloved leadership crisis card of gauging voting intention under the current leader and the alternative. The results under Tony Abbott’s leadership are slightly worse than in the poll taken just before Australia Day, with Labor up 1.2% to 41.4% and the Coalition down 1.3%, with the Greens and Palmer United all but unchanged at 11.2% and 2.7%. Two-party preferred moves one point in Labor’s favour to 55-45. The kickers are the findings that the Coalition would be leading 54-46 under Malcolm Turnbull and 51-49 under Julie Bishop – with the usual caveat added that such questions present partisan opponents with an opportunity to lodge a tactical vote against the incumbent. A head-to-head question rates Malcolm Turnbull ahead of Julie Bishop 56.5-43.5, but with Bishop having a 54.4-45.6 edge among Coalition voters. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 3502.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

719 comments on “ReachTEL: 55-45 to Labor”

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  4. [Snafu Rowan Dean is now talking crap]

    Rowan Dean is the most loathsome partisan hack to emerge in recent years. At least schmucks like Albrechtsen and Bolt abide by to the broken clock theory law of averages.

    Dean on the other hand could almost be a parody of a rightwing commentator. He is more shrill and 2 dimensional than the worst Liberal MP.

    I am outraged my taxpayers dollars are wasted on his appearances on the Q&A.

  5. The first of what you’d expect to be many polls conducted over the coming days, if all the leadership speculation in the past is any indication.

    Guess Newspoll will do the leadership contest with MT and JB vs Shorten also.

  8. leftwingpinko

    [Rowan Dean is the most loathsome partisan hack to emerge in recent years]

    The ABC inclusion of Dean in “intelligent discussion” shows the fear and loathing instilled in ABC management by the Tea Party nasties that have been governing the place for the past year or so.

  11. [briefly
    Posted Friday, February 6, 2015 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    1569
    Nicholas

    This has been the only realistic course of action ever since their insolvency was first revealed.

    Had they decided on this five years ago, the Greek economy would by now be growing. They could have implemented the necessary customs, monetary and fiscal reforms and been able to determine their own future.

    As it is, more pain still lies ahead.]

    Yep. The big issue is what the bad faith risk premium should be. The New Drachma would be trashed on the basis that the greeks have absolutely no commitment to economic reform and a major commitment to fooling other folks into bankrolling them.

    Given the Greens have been enthusiastic proponents of SYRIZAN bad faith there would also be a bad faith risk premium in Australian Greens’ promises to the Australian electorate.

  13. Love to be inside Abbott’s inner circle right now on the question of secret ballot versus show of hands.

    Surely, a show of hands would be regarded as so flawed a process as to be crippling to Abbott’s future prospects – but then he may realise a secret ballot all but guarantees his immediate political demise. What a dilemma for poor old Tones.

  15. Got some good insider goss on Morrison tonight.

    Appears he is atypical in the Cabinet: razor sharp, determined, clear as to objectives and priorities and with a well-oiled office.

    Is trying to retrieve a disastrous personal reputation gained by a mixture of being nasty to asylum seekers and being abrasive in interviews and in the House.

    Will not be putting up his hand in the forthcoming because his internal numbers and his numbers with the public are atrocious.

    Will be trying to soften his image over the next little while.

    This will be difficult given his primary tactic of using the wedge to get his policy ways.

    A person to watch next time round.

  16. [Surely, a show of hands would be regarded as so flawed a process as to be crippling to Abbott’s future prospects – but then he may realise a secret ballot all but guarantees his immediate political demise. What a dilemma for poor old Tones.]
    If he doesn’t allow a secret ballot then the process will be so grossly unfair that he will be undermined constantly until he allows another secret ballot.

    If he allows a secret ballot half his ministers will desert him and he will lose.

    Sucks to be Abbott

  17. alias@13

    Surely, a show of hands would be regarded as so flawed a process as to be crippling to Abbott’s future prospects – but then he may realise a secret ballot all but guarantees his immediate political demise. What a dilemma for poor old Tones.

    Sorta makes one salivate at his situation and dilemma.

    You know what I mean. 🙂

  18. [Will be trying to soften his image over the next little while.

    This will be difficult given his primary tactic of using the wedge to get his policy ways.

    A person to watch next time round.]
    Well that’s interesting considering his major interventions in his new portfolio has been to imply that we have too many dole bludgers.

  19. SO
    Yep. A bully. He’s gorrrrn. The two questions remaining are when and by whom?

    If the Libs have any sanity left after their run in with the narcissist, it will be Turnbull.

    But the carbon price lurks.

  20. SO
    Yep.

    He will focus on using the NDIS as the main priority and sacking bludgers and leaners to pay for the NDIS.

    He used the same tactic to persuade the Senate to accept TPVs.

  23. Morrison, probably rightly, realises that no pollie ever got hurt in voters eyes by going after dole bludgers.

    As long as he tells the pensioners that he’s got their back and “working Australians” that he’s sticking up for “their tax dollars” by making sure “lazy dole bludgers” aren’t spending money on videogames, booze and cigarettes, he’ll get a natural boost from the change of portfolio.

  24. Yes Dave and ShowsOn. It’s a beautiful thing. The impossible dilemma. A bit like being asked by Isis if you would prefer beheading or cage immolation.

  25. Given the chance Abbott will go for a show of hands, fairness is not a consideration, getting through the vote is.
    Who knows a black swan might come along, Kevin Rudd might decide to challenge again for the ALP leadership who can say?

  26. Predict Abbott will go to ground before the spill motion. Any public appearance will invite the question re secret ballot or not? He knows the latter is his best chance of survival, so predict he’ll go all quiet and try to out stare his opponents. This process is all getting very visceral.

    Who will blink first? Turnbull I suspect is happy to wait but knows he will have to show his hand eventually.

    What would Machiavelli recommend in the current situation?

  27. [Yes Dave and ShowsOn. It’s a beautiful thing. The impossible dilemma. A bit like being asked by Isis if you would prefer beheading or cage immolation.]
    This isn’t just his punishment for being a crap Prime Minister. It is his comeuppance for being a completely destructive opposition leader who always put his own political interests ahead of the national interest.

  31. God that was bad watching Kevin Andrews…

    Whose demise with Abbott will be very sweet. He’s been clogging up a safe Lib seat in Victoria for yonks!

  32. http://www.news.com.au/national/malcolm-turnbull-a-brilliant-mind-but-can-he-lead-the-liberals-the-country/story-fncynjr2-1227210845397
    [Malcolm Turnbull: A brilliant mind, but can he lead the Liberals, the country?
    February 06, 2015 7:30PM
    Ellen Whinnett national political editor
    Herald Sun

    MALCOLM Turnbull was bewildered. It was 2009, and Turnbull was in the dying days of his Liberal Party leadership, torn down by those opposed to his support for an emissions trading scheme.

    His famous self-belief was wavering.

    “I’m really either 20 years behind the times or 20 years ahead, I just don’t know which,’’ he confided to a colleague.

    Fast-forward to 2015, and no one is any closer to an answer.]

    David Pope has a great editorial cartoon tomorrow..
    https://twitter.com/Leroy_Lynch/status/563663122582360066

    Fight to the Death – HS front page
    https://twitter.com/tminear/status/563661429014667264

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/australias-abbott-vows-to-fight-leadership-challenge-1423190876
    [Australia’s Abbott Vows to Fight Leadership Challenge
    Lawmaker Luke Simpkins Calls for a Test of Support
    By Rob Taylor
    Updated Feb. 6, 2015 1:40 a.m. ET

    CANBERRA, Australia—Australia’s Prime Minister Tony Abbott said on Friday that he would fight to remain as leader, striking a united front with key cabinet allies to defeat a motion calling for his ouster by rebel conservative lawmakers.]

  34. Repeat from last thread.
    The idea that Cabinet solidarity or Ministerial solidarity would bind a meeting a party members deciding its leader is bizarre.

    First problem to work out who would be bound – 19 in Cabinet, 11 in Outer Minisrty and 13 parliamentary secretaries on a rough count.

    Second problem is to solve the conundrum that it creates an artifical barrier getting in the way of normal organisational democracy.

    Why should a member of Cabinet be denied the right to express a view on their leader.

    The Labor Party use of the same idea to try and dominate caucus voting on policy issues equally undemocratic.

  36. I am not sure what Laurie Oakes means here

    [Fairly quickly after a Liberal leadership change, a Labor source says, they will make a swing to the left, believing that the way Turnbull PM responds will “show the latte sippers he’s not really one of them”.]

  37. Well Boerwar tis the season to watch the meltdown of a PM that’s more than enough intrigue to bring this old Tory back to PollBludger.

    When the majority of even Lib supporters on PB want Abbott gawn image what all the others think?

    I expect Newspoll to be hugely damaging.

  38. [Predict Abbott will go to ground before the spill motion.]

    He’s managed to be front and center every day this week, despite it not being strategically in his favour to do so.

    On that basis, I expect him to continue to churn out the public appearances, blue tie and all, right up until the motion is tabled.

  39. I guess they will try to wedge turn bull agains his own right wing.
    However it better not be cynical, not like the emissions reduction bill in 2008-2009
    Fairness is good, crappy tricks are not

  40. vic – I think Oakes is predicting that Labor’s strategy when Turnbull assumes the Prime Minister’s role is to swing left, to wedge Turnbull into either betraying the soft liberal support for him, or betraying his party room.

  41. victoria:

    Frankly I wouldn’t be taking anything “Labor sources” say about a Turnbull PMship seriously. Oakes shouldn’t be either.

  43. Paul Murray on sky tonight said that Kevn Andrews deliberately said Julia Gillard instead of Julie Bishop. He reckons it was to draw a parallel in the minds of people that Julie Bishop could be likened to Julia Gillard

  44. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 1m 1 minute ago
    We are joined by three QLD Liberal backbenchers on #AustralianAgenda on Sunday. Also assistant treasurer @JoshFrydenberg]

  45. [Once its a secret ballot, expect the outer ministry and some in Cabinet to throw Tony to the wolves.]
    On 7:30 Mathias Cormann said he supports Abbott but expected it to be a secret ballot based on precedent created by Turnbull in the two late 2009 challenges.

    Ruddock (who is the whip) also mentioned Turnbull had allowed a secret ballot even after John Howard said that it could just be a show of hands.

    I think both of them were very subtly aiding Turnbull’s cause.

  46. teh drewski

    I dont see why Labor would need to swing “left” in order to call out Turnbull. Labor can maintain their policy positions they currently have and see where Turnbull and Co land on fhem

  48. [Given that there’s no challenger, the Herald Sun seems to have got a bit ahead of itself.]
    You honestly believe there won’t be a challenger is the spill motion is passed?

    The Abbott forces are just running this line to discourage support for the spill motion. As soon as the positions are spilled Turnbull will nominate for leader and then it will be up to Abbott to decide if he wants to contest or just allow Turnbull to be elected unanimously.

    If Turnbull becomes leader he will endorse Bishop for deputy and then she will win the position unanimously.

  50. SO:

    If it’s not a secret ballot then Abbott will most likely retain the leadership as the front bench fall in behind him.

    I expect he won’t allow a secret ballot, but we shall see.

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