The News Corporation tabloids take a second bite of the Galaxy cherry in successive weekends, to mark the occasion of the looming Liberal leadership spill. It confirms last week’s shattering result for Tony Abbott in putting the Labor lead at 57-43. The inevitable questions on voting intention under Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop aren’t quite as dramatic as ReachTEL’s, with Labor maintaining leads of 51-49 under a Turnbull scenario and 53-47 under Bishop. On a straight question of whether Tony Abbott should resign, 55% say yes and 35% say no, in case anyone’s wondering what might distinguish this leadership change from what happened in 2010. Primary votes and such to follow. HT: GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: All primary votes were perfectly unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 36%, Labor on 43%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 3%. A further question found only 24% anticipating that Tony Abbott would lead the Liberals to the next election, compared with 63% who believe he will not.
[Now I have kept an excel sheet (yes I know get a life) which tracked the performance of Gillard and more recently Abbott. ]
Heaven help us.
Leave the polling analysis to the likes of William and Kevin.
We saw what your spreadsheets did to Ebola — keep them well away from polling!
darren laver
weren’t you the one to spout on about the geriatric republicans on the eve of the big bbq stopper of australia day. o well if so i have long given up expecting apologies on PB … but keep away from prime time
[darren laver
weren’t you the one to spout on about the geriatric republicans on the eve of the big bbq stopper of australia day. o well if so i have long given up expecting apologies on PB … but keep away from prime time]
Well even after Tony’s disastrous efforts, the republic still does not enjoy majority support!
If you cannot even get a majority to say ‘yes’ in a phone poll in the wake of Knightgate, you never will at a referendum, my dear.
I’m having second thoughts about a secret ballot for leader. From Abbott leadership challenge is politics at its most brutal
They are our elected representatives. Don’t they owe it to us to tell us who they want as Prime Minister? If they are convinced the country, and their party, needs a new leader shouldn’t they have the courage to publicly standby their convictions?
It’s interesting to read a column Laura Tingle wrote back in 2011: Labor hopeless, Abbott a hollow man
Andrew Probyn also had an interesting article in 2011: Future Not So Simple For Abbott
I’ve seen a few people speculating on which cabinet ministers might go if we have a change in PM. One name I haven’t seen mentioned much is our AG, George Brandis. If he were to be moved out of that position I wonder if his replacement, and the PM, would be as keen on the proposed data retention laws?
B.C.
[Andrew Probyn also had an interesting article in 2011: ]
An ‘A’ class twat that was well and truly on the Abbott gravey train.
Did any of these paid journos get around to saying ‘what about the policy?’.
Twitter aflutter about some sort of bombshell Laurie Oakes will allegedly drop on Abbott Sunday night… sourced from some pundit’s segment on Sky News. Hmmmmm.
Daily Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1BEAK4C #auspol http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 oㄥO
#libspill, #abbott Politics in t’Pub by David Rowe © http://bit.ly/1xInIOK
Darren Laver @103
i can’t believe people are that stupid.
CTar1, that comment doesn’t hold up very well against the article BC is linking to.
Some discussion in this thread about the point at which the penny dropped and we realised we’d got ourselves the only possible worse government than its predecessor. I’d say it was election night. Just as well we have a Senate.
In support of my contention that the penny dropped on election night I call as my witness the electors of Western Australia who had to re-vote their Senate election shortly after the main federal election. They didn’t show any enthusiasm for Labor but they made sure Scott Ludlam got back in with a bigger majority than ever before.
From a Fairfax article:
[And in a sign of how fiercely the Abbott camp is prepared to fight to protect the Prime Minister, the operative also offered material on the two men who had called the spill – Liberal MPs Luke Simpkins and Don Randall.
The operative asserted both men had been involved in travel entitlements irregularities and lacked credibility in the party room, and suggested an analysis of the pair should be written.
Fairfax Media asked to see the material in question, but has decided not to publish it.]
One wonders if Chriss Pyne has been having beers with their staff, or if WA liberals have been trying to get hold of their diaries.
The funny thing is that this Government never got a honeymoon. Bludgertrack shows that Howard and Rudd both saw their 2PP improve after taking power, Abbott did not.
I think one possible turning point was around November 2013, when Pyne announced they were backtracking on Gonski. Remember Abbott saying wtte that they would implement the policy they said they would, not the policy everyone thought they said they would? This showed clearly that they thought the voters of Australia are idiots.
Soon after, Nielsen (remember them?) showed Labor in front, which became the norm from the start of 2014 until now.
Ah the Schadenfreude. This from Miranda Devine this morning trying to save Abbott’s sorry arse by throwing Hockey and Credlin overboard
[ONE of the tragedies of Tony Abbott’s current predicament is that if he’d had a Peter Costello as treasurer and an Arthur Sinodinos as chief of staff he could have been riding high.
But he had Joe Hockey and Peta Credlin, and he didn’t want to admit failure by jettisoning either one, despite the concerns of his colleagues that their flaws, coupled with his reluctance to fight with anyone, were damaging the government. The result was those colleagues in recent weeks started talking about a “three for one deal”, as in you remove the Prime Minister and lose Hockey and Credlin too.]
and she sums up
[There’s nothing wrong with Abbott that a change of Treasurer, new confidantes, and an extra dose of humility can’t fix.
]
sprocket_
[and an extra dose of humility can’t fix. ]
Now there’s the deal breaker for the Devine Miranda’s cunning plan.
sprocket
[There’s nothing wrong with Abbott that a change of Treasurer, new confidantes, and an extra dose of humility can’t fix. ]
A new Treasurer and confidantes may help, but an extra dose of humility would just mean he’d say “I get it, I’m sorry,” more often. His Uriah Heep act repulses me because he never means it.
And Sam Maiden in today’s Daily TellMeCrap has descended into conspiracy speculation
[So who encouraged Turnbull to stay in politics nearly five years ago? John Howard was one. The original Mr Lazarus with a triple bypass, himself.
Mr Howard’s former chief of staff Arthur Sinodinos was another. He counselled the man-who-would-be- king over dinners at Point Piper.
Let’s pause and take that in for a moment. Sinodinos, the man who sent shock waves through the leadership debate on Wednesday when he declared his support for the Prime Minister was not “unconditional’’ and he might not be Prime Minister by Tuesday. He’s been in the background for a long time. That’s interesting.
And where is Scott Morrison in this tableau? He came out on Friday to make it clear he was not running for a leadership position. But did he come out to speak publicly against a leadership spill? No, he did not. That’s interesting, too. Morrison is the biggest winner. He will be Treasurer if Turnbull wins a ballot without blood on his hands and has rocketed through the ranks as the next leadership apparent. And Victorian powerbroker Michael Kroger is interesting too. He’s “Switzerland” and not urging MPs, he says, to vote against the PM.]
And on the potential of Morrison as Treasurer, I think I share others’ concerns about his attitude to the disadvantaged.
and even Piers Akerman has decided that staying on Rupert’s payroll outweighs anything he has said or written before, and gently slips the knife between the shoulder blades.
As the mafioso used to say as they eliminated recalcitrant family members, “I’m sorry I have to this, but it is the business”.
[TONY Abbott’s political life is on a knife edge.
He has sufficient support to survive Tuesday’s spill vote, but the support he has is heavily conditional. Should Abbott survive without a commitment to change, maintaining the status quo will ensure he is mortally wounded.
He must focus on the economy and assure backbenchers that he is not only cognisant of his own poor performance in this area but also the failure of Treasurer Joe Hockey to present a coherent argument for the need for drastic reforms.
This should not come as a shock to either Abbott or Hockey. The contradictory messages they have been sending out to the electorate about cuts and increased spending have to stop.
]
lizzie
Joe has a few supporters, so if he knows he’s booted either way surely he’ll vote against his backstabbing maaaaate.
Did the Guardian publish the material that Fairfax rejected?
(although anyone who tried could find it all in the archives)
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/06/luke-simpkins-and-don-randall-colourful-history-of-abbotts-would-be-assassins
[There’s nothing wrong with Abbott that a change of Treasurer, new confidantes, and an extra dose of humility can’t fix]
…new personality, new history…
“He must focus on the economy and assure backbenchers that he is not only cognisant of his own poor performance in this area but also the failure of Treasurer Joe Hockey to present a coherent argument for the need for drastic reforms.”
Why would Malcolm take on the Treasury position, not in his interest to save Tony by just doing a better sales job selling the same rubbish.
The Libs need a change in direction & only Malcolm as PM can do that.
Just got back to Melbourne after a week away.
Anything been happening since the Queensland election?
Good Morning
We will get a real sense of the state of play in the LNP with Insiders. Nikki Savva is on the panel.
Malcolm Turnbull being coy this morning setting out on his morning walk.
No comment on challenge
The worst week to be “off” Pollbludger!
With no personal internet access on phone or “home” and a workplace with fairly limited access where it would have been a bad idea to access PB, an an even badder one to logon! Kept up with some news sites and ABC24 on TV.
I read last night that the spill motion will be a secret ballot (which means it will get up surely), and then another commentator saying that if it seems likely to get up that Abbott will just call a spill and bypass that step.
The funniest thing is reading the last wailings of Andrew Bolt and Miranda Devine et al, the last of the “True Deniers”.
More comments from Turnbull.
[The leadership is in the gift of the party room]
I imagine some of the 35% who think TA shouldn’t resign are actually ALP supporters making his true admirers fewer than 35%.
Planning a big day today before going back to normal work tomorrow. I am looking forward to a massive catchup of Pollbludger starting from last Sunday when I left. I have done this before and it can be very entertaining – and there is no waiting to see everyone’s responses when news events break.
[A house in the mining town of Port Hedland has been passed in at auction for $360,000 after it was bought four years ago for $1.3 million.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-07/house-passed-in-at-auction-after-million-dollar-price-dive/6077724
Turnbull refers to the spill as a grass roots issue
My God Malcolm can waffle.
It’s typical of Abbott’s tramline thinking that when he had a private meeting with Turnbull (Abbott supporter denied it, so it must be true!) and Malcom asked him to outline his future direction, Abbott simply repeated his Press Club speech. The report said that Malcolm was “underwhelmed”.
No surprises there. Anyone with half a brain would have been.
I wonder who Malcolm told.
“@Kieran_Gilbert: Turnbull says TA has shown great respect for the partyroom by saying the meeting will be on Tuesday not rushing it to Monday #libspill”
Lorax
[The leadership is in the gift of the party room]
That’s not waffle, that’s a shot at Abbott’s “the people elected me as leader”.
guytaur 131 The leadership is in the gift of the party room
That is very pointed. True of course.
John Howard uses to always say that – right up until mid 2007 when he and Janet decided that he would remain leader after all, despite the party no longer having confidence in him.
The main argument I have heard from Abbott and his supporters when I’ve been away is that ‘Abbott was elected by the Australian people at the 2013 election, and we can’t be like the Labor Party’ – there seems much less about him being a great PM, and their best chance of winning.
guytaur 137
Tactically that is a huge mistake – Tuesday makes for a chaotic (and plain embarrassing) Question Time in the House on Monday. And also Newspoll will come out late Monday night.
Though I guarantee if the party-room meeting is changed to Monday, Newspoll will get the numbers out by Monday morning.
lizzie: I know what he was doing — locking in the secret ballot and on Tuesday not Monday — but jeez he took a long time to say it. I’ll be longing for three word slogans if this is what PM Turnbull is like.
Well well. Al Jazeera is on the bandwagon
@AJEnglish: Australian PM Tony Abbott has been dogged by poor popularity ratings in recent polls. http://t.co/n5jlauF88K http://t.co/qyd0Cz4leC
one big bonus with Malcolm as PM is no more joggers or bike riders on the morning news
guytaur
Note that he wanted to “emphasised” the point that it was the gift of the party room”. Now laboring the point re secret ballot and how wonderful of Abbott that there will be a secret ballot to respect tradition. Velvet covered handcuffs put on Tones.
guytaur
Note that he wanted to “emphasised” the point that it was the gift of the party room”. Now laboring the point re secret ballot and how wonderful of Abbott that there will be a secret ballot to respect tradition. Velvet covered handcuffs put on Tones.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I had an unusual sleep in this morning.
Mark Kenny – the knives are being sharpened.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/liberal-mps-knives-sharpening-ahead-of-crucial-leadership-ballot-on-tuesday-20150207-138n3r.html
Abbott might well bully a “no” vote on the spill but the voters will say he is shit!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-survival-turns-on-official-loyalty-as-party-room-spill-numbers-add-up-20150207-138ndm.html
What genius thought the #ImStickingWith Tony hashtag? The judgement is on a par with that displayed with the appointment of Sir Phil.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-twitter-hashtag-backfires-20150207-138s8e.html
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/07/tony-abbott-supporters-start-social-media-campaign-to-save-his-job
Abbott loyalists blitz the airwaves. (To save their own skins!).
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-loyalists-blitz-airwaves-20150207-138n03.html
Turning short term thinking into long term failure.
https://theconversation.com/leadership-crises-turn-short-term-thinking-into-long-term-failure-37283
“Sack Peta and you will survive”, says a key backer to Abbott.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/02/07/peta-credlin-sack-tony-youll-stay-pm/
Abbott’s future – Lose/lose.
http://theaimn.com/abbotts-future-lose-lose/
Surely not! Sam Maiden reckons Turnbull would be happy to serve Abbott as Treasurer.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/malcolm-turnbull-for-treasurer-to-ward-off-leadership-spill-against-pm-tony-abbott/story-fnii5s40-1227211747707
Tackling tax taboos -the reform the Abbott government doesn’t want to tackle.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/tackling-tax-taboos-the-reform-process-the-government-doesnt-want-to-have-20150206-1377e7.html
Section 2 . . .
Is the TPP a dirty, dangerous deal for us?
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-tpp-the-dirtiest-most-dangerous-deal-youve-never-heard-of,7347
The 38 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/02/07/the-thirty-eight-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-190/
Russell Brand joins the queue to attack Abbott.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/06/russell-brand-joins-the-queue-to-attack-tony-abbott
Annabel Crabbe on the grammar of political intrigue.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/mangled-grammar-signals-political-storm-20150207-1385kd.html
Peter Wicks – The Coalition’s product is unsaleable.
http://wixxyleaks.com/selling-the-drama-with-a-product-as-bad-as-the-coalition-its-unsaleable/
Here’s Peter Reith’s ideas on how things might pan out.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/a-leadership-challenge-that-may-endure-long-after-tuesday-20150207-138lgm.html
Hardly surprising!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/3-billion-not-leading-to-better-results-for-private-schools-20150207-137lhr.html
Here’s Peter Fitzsimons little weekend collection.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbull-restrained-on-issue-of-loyalty-20150207-137qhu.html
Charles Waterstreet on death penalty.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/charles-waterstreet-the-death-penalty-is-a-burden-on-the-world-20150207-138dyi.html
How prescription drugs are killing us.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/peter-gotzsche-founder-of-the-cochrane-collaboration-visits-australia-to-talk-about-dangers-of-prescription-drugs-20150207-136nqc.html
Lorax
We must be prepared for much grandstanding “humour” in QT. What barrister will use one word when three are available.
Section 3 . . .
This is an interesting proposition, especially given the direct being taken on GP copayments.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/medicare-architect-suggests-making-business-pay-for-sick-certificates-20150207-138eae.html
Ross Gittins examines the concept of privatisation.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/searching-for-our-salvation-in-privatisation-20150206-137njz.html
Matt Golding just HAD to use it!
Mark Knight has a dig at Shorten having a dig at the Libs.