Fairfax/Ipsos: 56-44 to Coalition in NSW

An Ipsos poll finds that one conservative government at least is travelling quite nicely.

The Fairfax papers have an Ipsos poll showing Mike Baird’s government riding high in New South Wales, with a 56-44 two-party lead (up from 54-46) from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up two) and 34% for Labor (down two). Respondent-allocated two-party preferred is, as always, a lot stronger for Labor, with the Coalition lead at 53-47.

Mike Baird is unchanged on both approval and disapproval, with extremely healthy ratings of 60% and 18%. Luke Foley cops a big shrug in his first poll as leader, with approval at 30%, disapproval at 21% and the remainder uncommitted. Since only 15% of respondents were in fact able to name the new leader, this offers an interesting insight into the efficacy of much leadership polling, particularly at state level. Baird’s inevitable lead as preferred premier is 54-24. We are also told that “8 per cent of those who voted for the Coalition at the 2011 state election have changed their vote because of the federal government’s performance&#148.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

42 comments on “Fairfax/Ipsos: 56-44 to Coalition in NSW”

  1. I think Baird’s steadiness in the face of Liberal implosions elsewhere is probably helping his ratings. The comparison to Abbott makes him look pretty good.

  2. Baird is safe. Its not labors turn yet to dip their snouts back in the lucrative NSW trough.
    Isn’t that how its played in NSW?
    This is Australia and believe in a fair go. If you form a dodgy government, you should have enough time to make it worthwhile prosecuting and not waste taxpayers dollars

  3. Unlike every other Coalition leader in the land, Baird simply hasn’t done anything to piss people off. The most obvious line of attack against the government is the number of MPs they’ve been forced to turf for corruption – but NSW Labor are in absolutely no position to do that.

    Probably the only hope is to hammer the fact that electricity prices are as high as ever, despite the Liberal carbon tax lies, and they’re only going to get higher if the government is allowed to flog off the poles and wires.

  4. esj 4 – yes I am sure there are many nervous NSW Coalition State MPs (and one Premier) awaiting tomorrow’s vote. If Abbott gets up he will have to go into hiding again during the NSW campaign – a bit harder than the Victorian and Queensland elections seeing as he lives in Sydney!

    I still don’t think Labor would win, but you never know – I mean something like a “Dame” Queen Elizabeth may happen by then.

  5. @5 O’Farrell didn’t piss people off and I think he was a good premier who should not have resigned. Baird is Johnny come lately and has been restrained to a degree but I don’t trust him. It’s not only the flogging of essential infrastructure ie poles and wires but forced council amalgamations aimed a teaming financially secure councils with a basket cases – result many basket cases. I really hope this hits voters radar.

  6. I should have pointed out most of the councils in the basket case category are controlled by “Independents” ie Liberals incognito. Unfortunately for the rate payers these are the ones put in change with managing the amalgamations as well for obvious reasons political.

  7. Who would ever guess that if you have a conservative government that doesn’t pee on the couch, graffiti the walls and set the bedroom on fire that people don’t hate them as much?

    The fate of Newman and Abbott compared to the fate of Baird and Barnett should be a historical pointer for any conservative government that thinks slash-and-burn vandalism as a means of governing is good idea.

  8. I agree that this is a decent poll for the Coalition, given what’s happening Federally, but I think that like in Queensland, the respondent-allocated-preferences figure is going to be more reliable than the previous-election-preference figures (because the previous election was a historic low-point for Labor).

    If Abbott holds onto the PMship and continues to gaffe things up all the way to the NSW election, this is winnable for Labor – though they probably don’t deserve to win it. Alas, in our politics it is often more the case that a Government is evicted than that an Opposition is elected.

  9. AS – 10 – good point on the preferences – likely to matter like in Queensland. How upset with Abbott and his Federal colleagues would you be if you were a NSW Coalition MP sitting on a 8-10% margin, quietly working away and expecting (until very recently) that you were going to have at least two terms in office?

    Seriously if Abbott wins tomorrow he will need the ring from Lord of the Rings so that he can be “invisible” when his NSW counterparts are campaigning.

  10. Given NSW Labor are almost invisible I’m surprised that their polling isn’t worse, looks like the Federal poll to me.

  11. I would expect the margin to tighten as the asset sales stuff bites and Foley gains a little more recognition.
    That said I’m predicting an election result of 53-47 to the tories at best (at best for labor that is).
    Baird is sensible, moderate and not Abbott, it will be interesting to see how they hide Abbott in the campaign without overtly appearing to do so. I can see a Manly stunt or two in Abbott/Baird’s electorate and that’s about it. Maybe Abbott could gut and fillet a lifesaver…

  12. Plus Baird gets the usual conservative press dream run from the Daily Tele; they are in such lockstep that he has even appeared in the Tele’s tv campaign.
    Channel 9 seems to cover even their flimsiest news with a positive spin too. I have a theory that Kevin Wilde, former channel 9 political reporter, who seemingly disappeared off the radar last year is now working for the libs.

  13. The look on Baird’s face if Abbott is by his shoulder will mirror the look on Julia Gillard’s when she had to campaign with Keneally

  14. The new pendulum is interesting for the large number of Liberal seats on margins under 6.8%, then a gap to the next seat on 8.3%.

    The electorates on 0 to 6.8% represent what should be a minimum haul for the ALP. Six of the 15 seats – Swansea, Macquarie Fields, Newcastle, Wyong, Maitland, Londonderry – don’t even have incumbent Liberal MPs.

    On this poll – the swing is about 8% – that minimum haul might be all Labor gets.

    Let’s say Charlestown stays Labor and Miranda returns the Libs. By my count that would leave the Coalition with 55 seats in a 93 seat parliament.

  15. Then again, don’t dismiss the respondent allocated 53-47 result so easily. (That represents a swing of about 11%.)

    The lesson of the Queensland election is that the sentiment of minor party voters is not fixed, as is assumed under the conventional preference allocation method. At least not under OPV.

    This makes intuitive sense. Many minor party votes otherwise inclined towards Labor – in particular, Greens voters – would have been likely to withhold their preferences from the tired old Keneally govt, just as they were against the tired old Bligh govt. One term of a conservative government later – plus a conservative federal government – and they’re more willing to send their preferences Labor’s way.

    So we could be seeing a similar underestimate of the extent to which preferences will benefit Labor.

  16. 53/47 and closing.Labor has been working very hard at the grassroot level, unheralded or dismissed even by the types who just don’t know, care or understand. Game on !

  17. Shellbell, if ICAC loses, can the fault of their position be rectified by an act of Parliament ? Would this be a one off, a diminished ICAC, or the end ?

  18. Sorry outside left where is the 53/47 poll at the top of the headline.
    I suspect you must live the whole of your life in denial (not a river in Egypt, thanks Bill Shorten). Do you seriously contend that the ALP is ready to govern again – I’d give them until 2027 to rid them of the stench of 16 years of corruption and sheer brazen incompetence, and then I’ll come back to you.

  19. @ moderate, 28

    The 53-47 is the respondent-allocated preference figure for this poll – which, as the recent Queensland election demonstrated, is a more reliable measure when the previous election is a historic low-point for Labor (and thus, the flow of preferences to Labor was much lower than it would be at a more standard election).

    No denial needed to read that into it, you just need to remember all the polls before the QLD election that got the primary votes very close to exactly right, but stuffed the 2PP estimate by using previous-election preference flows.

  20. David Walsh @20: Would Monaro be as easy for Labor to win as other Lib seats with a similar margin? They nearly held the seat in 2011 with a much smaller swing than the state average, thanks to a popular MP who’s in the upper house these days – it was pretty atypical.

  21. I’m surprised the Coalition polled so strongly, but the main relevance of this poll is that it’s probably a good time at the moment to find enthusiastic Coalition supporters among your friends and try to get good odds from them.

  22. BoP – no idea really.

    It is surprising the margin in Monaro is so small, given Labor didn’t hold this seat in the first two terms of the Carr government.

    Steve Whan is giving up his upper house seat to re-contest Monaro, so that factor remains.

  23. Man outside left you have a gift for a great turn of phrase. Zinger……
    I was not wishing for 54/46. In fact, consistent with the poll result reported above, I am increasingly confident of 56/44 or 57/43. This is after all the Luke Foley who saved Ian McDonald’s bacon…
    Keep those Zingers coming, cant wait for the next one!!

  24. @ moderate, 34

    I guess you ignored my post at 29. Do go back and read it when you’re ready to exit your wonderful dreamland of taking polls at face-value without reading further into them, especially in the context of what was going on with the polling in Queensland before the election.

  25. Didn’t ignore it – just don’t agree with it. Is that OK by you?
    Not sure where you come from, but Baird is not Newman, and the OPV strategy the coalition will run has every prospect of being as successful in ’15 as it did in ’11. Sorry but not all subscribers here have drunk the ALP kool aid!

  26. To be fair, I think Baird has made it clear enough that he is nothing like Newman, Marshal or Abbott, so he has a chance with the voters.

    However, with the upper house, he might be in with a fiercer opposition. Are all seats of the legislative council up for election?

  27. Had a read and it’s half the council seats up for election or 21 seats.

    Up for contention:

    8 Liberal / National
    9 Labor
    2 Greens
    1 Shooters & Fishers
    1 Christian Democratic

  28. Going by current polls, it does look the Liberal / Nationals have a chance of controlling the upper house due to the strong performance in 2011.

  29. @ moderate, 36

    Oh, don’t get me wrong – I fully expect Baird to win this election with reasonable comfort.

    I just doubt that this poll truly represents 56-44 and expect that it represents either 54-46 or 53-47, based on the precedent of the Queensland polling.

    As for your comment about the LNP’s OPV strategy, it is not the LNP’s strategy that will impact the preference flows of minor parties, it is the strategy of the minor parties themselves. As the ABC’s Antony Green pointed out here on his blog, it will depend on what the HTVs look like, especially the one from the Greens.

    If we see the same “put the Liberals last”-type campaign that we saw in QLD, the preference share that Labor receives will be quite a bit higher than it was at the last election, thus making polling that estimates 2PP based on previous-election preference flows unreliable in this measure.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *