Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor

Newspoll matches Galaxy in the scale of the disaster for the Coalition, and exceeds anything seen previously with respect to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.

The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.

Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.

Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.

UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,041 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor”

  1. TBA: you can’t count every “no” vote as an endorsement of Abbott any more than you can count every “yes” vote as an anti-Abbott vote.

    There were two parts to the process of getting rid of or keeping Abbott. Today was about ask the question in the first place: to vote or not to vote. Only once that is settled in the affirmative, does it then move to the leadership vote, where the exact pro- and anti-Abbott vote would have been there for all to see.

    In terms of the spill motion, it was never about a clear Abbott vs anyone else split. Even within the Abbott/Turnbull/Other camps there were:

    1. The Abbott supporters who voted no because they were worried if the motion was allowed to go through then their boy mightn’t ultimately get up;
    2. The Abbott supporters who voted yes because their unwavering confidence in their boy (and level of delusion) was such they would have relished a leadership vote in order to prove their boy is still numero uno;
    3. The Turnbull supporters who voted yes because they wanted to bring on a leadership vote in order to get their boy up;
    4. The Turnbull supporters who voted no because they were worried about the perception of leadership instability, but who would definitely vote for Turnbull in the event any spill occurred;
    5. The Bishop/other supporters who voted no for the same reason as those in 4;
    6. The Bishop/other supporters who voted yes in order to end the uncertainty;
    7. Waverers who aren’t sure, but who voted no because they were worried a la 4;
    8. Waverers who aren’t sure, but who voted yes a la 6;
    9. The fruitloops who voted yes just like a bit of biff to liven things up.

    This is the kind of things that happen in the absence of factions, BTW. All over the place like a mad dog’s breakfast 😉

  2. TrueBlueAussie@952

    Abbott will gracefully resign and hand over the leadership over to Turnbull in a time of his choosing.

    The Coalition is not Labor and is not going to allow regime change by media. Besides there is plenty of time for the polls to go up and down.

    Well truthie – you have carried a candle for abbott for sometime now. Remember this sort of stuff you’ve posted in the past ?

    [Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, October 21, 2013 at 1:09 am | Permalink

    Tony Abbott is like the George Washington of our times… ]

    Today abbott took so many blows I doubt he can tell the time.

  3. Have thought a bit about today personally – i think it was historical in the end, in that it amounted to beginning of end, the endplay as someone here has phrased it, of LP in this country. if it is it will a deserved end too – the party twice voted for this misfit, and all he represents – given a chance on the second go with all evidence to contrary the vote increased. there is no need to add to avalanche of appraisal of abbott. what is more timely for today was the failure of Turnbull. I agree entirely with shorten’s speech (which was breathtakingly good and can be found on youtube) in demolishing the track record and policies and personal qualities of this business end of town candidate. Thinking now I am not sure what the fuss was all about – his personal demeanor is copybook version of GPS culture, and demeanor along is not enough for national office or leadership. His has some ‘hobby’ one might say interests in climate republic and maybe maybe telecommunication but put to crunch these are paper thin. Look if he really believe in such things and in failure of govt he would have stood for office and stood down from ministry -he would have garnered considerable respect in doing so and ensured his eventual role as party leader. This last week confirmed an “ambiguity” (as shorten termed it) that has gone on far too long. Obviously he faces opposition in the party – but I cant see recovery from the events of today. Personally, looking at his presentation today and before that, I don’t know what the fuss is all about – we must be pretty desperate to hang hope on his enriched indeed privileged coat-tails. Is there any evidence on most issues that he would differ from any of the existing policies. None I can think of – he could even be worse, a true trojan horse to electorate. Yet he was pragmatically the only and last chance for this sad rightest party to find a coherent future and today put paid to that. the door is open to progressive emerging directions within and beyond the labor parties to pick up the spoils. I was glad shorten underlined his mention of the republic in his speech – we can begin to pick up real national debates slowly freed from howard and abbott regimes of bullying propaganda and national cringing, that in the end is about very little except self regard and financial aggrandisement. If that is so then the wait – esp these abbott years now extended excruciatingly into the future months – might just have been worth it.

  4. The problem with a Sales interview isn’t asking questions, it is the way she is likely to let Abbot evade the question and spew some slogans. If she asks a tough question he will just divert it into something more comfortable and blame the Labor the party and she will let him.

  5. TBA – Considering that Abbott couldn’t claim victory in 2013 without a trace of grace. I don’t see why he’s suddenly going to develop this now of all times.

  6. [I am pretty sure it was M4s they used. ]

    Think there was mention that the flash bangs were fired from the larger barrel under the M4 itself ?

  7. TBA

    [Abbott will gracefully resign and hand over the leadership over to Turnbull in a time of his choosing.]

    Ah, a backroom deal!

    So Tony thinks the post of Prime Minister is his to give away! Not his party room and not the public!

  8. Ah. Where are all those posters who used to do the “I’m not a Liberal hack, but Labor is doomed and will never poll over 40% primaries again” now that the Libs are in the same situation?

  9. J341983 – Roy Morgan headline two part preferred figures are based on respondant allocated preferences, so tend to wobble a bit versus than the primary votes, depending on the mood out there and general sample quirks. There will also be a standard pollsters “last election” preferences allocation figure tucked away in the full results when that comes out.

  10. The police weapons actions at Martin incident had two things that I notice and has now come to light.
    Only high caliber weapons seemed to have been used to suppress one offender in a confined space.
    More than twenty rounds of military type ammunition were fired by body protected officers to suppress one offender which was armed with a shotgun.

  11. geoffrey@1007

    Have thought a bit about today personally – i think it was historical in the end, in that it amounted to beginning of end, the endplay as someone here has phrased it, of LP in this country. if it is it will a deserved end too – the party twice voted for this misfit, and all he represents – given a chance on the second go with all evidence to contrary the vote increased. there is no need to add to avalanche of appraisal of abbott. what is more timely for today was the failure of Turnbull. I agree entirely with shorten’s speech (which was breathtakingly good and can be found on youtube) in demolishing the track record and policies and personal qualities of this business end of town candidate. Thinking now I am not sure what the fuss was all about – his personal demeanor is copybook version of GPS culture, and demeanor along is not enough for national office or leadership. His has some ‘hobby’ one might say interests in climate republic and maybe maybe telecommunication but put to crunch these are paper thin. Look if he really believe in such things and in failure of govt he would have stood for office and stood down from ministry -he would have garnered considerable respect in doing so and ensured his eventual role as party leader. This last week confirmed an “ambiguity” (as shorten termed it) that has gone on far too long. Obviously he faces opposition in the party – but I cant see recovery from the events of today. Personally, looking at his presentation today and before that, I don’t know what the fuss is all about – we must be pretty desperate to hang hope on his enriched indeed privileged coat-tails. Is there any evidence on most issues that he would differ from any of the existing policies. None I can think of – he could even be worse, a true trojan horse to electorate. Yet he was pragmatically the only and last chance for this sad rightest party to find a coherent future and today put paid to that. the door is open to progressive emerging directions within and beyond the labor parties to pick up the spoils. I was glad shorten underlined his mention of the republic in his speech – we can begin to pick up real national debates slowly freed from howard and abbott regimes of bullying propaganda and national cringing, that in the end is about very little except self regard and financial aggrandisement. If that is so then the wait – esp these abbott years now extended excruciatingly into the future months – might just have been worth it.

    Here’s a thought!

    Now that you have eliminated paragraphs, why not eliminate sentences next?

    And if that doesn’t work at rendering your posts completely unreadable, you could try eliminating spaces between words.

    That should do the trick!

  12. Here we go…
    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6061-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-february-9-2015-201502090645
    [ALP increases lead before Abbott’s ‘Pyrrhic victory’ in today’s L-NP leadership vote; Government Confidence drops to 89
    February 09 2015

    Finding No. 6061– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, January 31/ February 1 & 7/8, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,939 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.

    ALP support rose to 57.5% (up 1%) well ahead of the L-NP 42.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted over the last two weekends of January 31/ February 1 & 7/8, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,939 Australian electors aged 18+.

    Primary support for the ALP rose to 41.5% (up 2% – the highest since June 2014) well ahead of the
    L-NP 35.5% (down 2%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 12% (unchanged), Palmer United Party (PUP) 2% (down 1%) while Independents/ Others were up 1% to 9%.

    Support for PUP is highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (4.5%) with little support in all other states.

    …………….

    The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (57%) cf. L-NP (43%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.]
    I’d knock off 1.5% off the TPP for the general lean in RM multi-mode polls to the ALP, so still 55.5 ALP – 44.5 L/NP.

  13. bemused
    Posted Monday, February 9, 2015 at 6:02 pm | PERMALINK

    —–you are f…. hopeless you mean spirited old pedagogue…. i will write in the style that suits the day … brush up on your reading and literary manner matey

  14. If this is to be the end of the LNP there would need to be an alternative party that would attract significant financial support. I think part of the problem is that Corp boardrooms are by and large very very right wing – hate govt and hate social goods and services but quite like corporate welfare.

    The money is pushing them to the right.

    I was reading a paper today where the authors were seriously complaining that the effective life of investments with an actual effective life of 40 years should be reduced below the 15 – 20 years concession they get now!

  15. pom@1023

    The police weapons actions at Martin incident had two things that I notice and has now come to light.
    Only high caliber weapons seemed to have been used to suppress one offender in a confined space.
    More than twenty rounds of military type ammunition were fired by body protected officers to suppress one offender which was armed with a shotgun.

    5.65mm is not ‘high calibre’, but it is high powered and fires a very high velocity projectile designed to cause a lot of damage.

    9mm, as used in pistols and some sub machine guns is a higher calibre, but a much slower projectile which is far less likely to ricochet all around the place.

  16. Rhwombat

    [If M4 carbines were used, someone in the NSW Police is going end up wearing it.]

    Is that because of the increased chance of ricochet injuries, as in the lady who died and the lady shot in her legs?

  17. *sigh*

    Abbott said WTTE that we shouldn’t get rid of a government that is not perfect but was at least “fair dinkum”.

    I could say the same about the Rudd and Gillard governments.

  18. Sustainable Future @949:

    If the Coalition screened sociopaths when picking candidates, they’d have to find an entirely new Parliamentary team, with perhaps half a dozen exceptions!

  19. TBA @952:

    First, Abbott’s never done anything difficult “gracefully” in his entire life…why would he start now?

    Second, the polls may well move up and down – but for Tones, it all seems to be one direction. Down.

  20. Rates Analyst @965:

    If Turnbull can command more than one-third of the caucus, then excluding him from the top two finishers is mathematically impossible.

    Which means that the hypothetical “ultra-Right” faction (what else is one to call people silly enough to support Morrison?) needs to peel off Turnbull supporters, not Abbott supporters.

    If they want to exclude Turnbull, then proceed to knock off Abbott in the final round, then they need to a) cut his numbers, b) improve their own and c) do it in such a fashion as to make the remaining Turnbull supporters prefer their candidate to Abbott.

    A tall ask.

  21. Abbott’s flash new half million dollar BMW has featured in separate, 10 second video grabs three days running on ABC24.

    In those few seconds of footage, the driver has committed numerous traffic offenses:

    Fail to yield (1)
    Fail to come to a complete stop at a stop sign (1) – he/she in fact blasted through at about 40k/h –
    Cross double white lines (1)
    Fail to indicate intention to change lanes (2)
    Fail to indicate intention to make a right hand turn (1)

    And generally drive like a reckless loon/hoon.

    Has dear leader got somewhere urgent to be lately, perhaps there was a bushfire requiring his expertise to extinguish?

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