Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor

Newspoll matches Galaxy in the scale of the disaster for the Coalition, and exceeds anything seen previously with respect to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.

The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.

Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.

Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.

UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,041 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor”

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  1. Edi_Mahin(901) reckons it’s great entertainment.

    Not as good as the Queensland election, though. When I thanked a Tory mate in Brisbane for a terrific night, he said: ” We watched the soccer and the tennis.”

  2. Abbott will gracefully resign and hand over the leadership over to Turnbull in a time of his choosing.

    The Coalition is not Labor and is not going to allow regime change by media. Besides there is plenty of time for the polls to go up and down.

  3. I think many voters will feel let down by today’s debacle (thanx victoria 🙂 ) ..the prospect of Turnbull as PM flared up briefly ..then vanished in a puff of smoke..

    He’s a pretender imho ..and Abbott will eventually be rolled by Morrison ..which I suspect is the end game..

  4. I think Robb would see himself as Treasurer. I recall him being fingered as the man most likely to have undermined Julie Bishop when she was shadow treasurer.

    He was finance spokesman in Opposition and probably not best pleased when that gig went to Cormann and he got trade.

  5. I think Robb would see himself as Treasurer. I recall him being fingered as the man most likely to have undermined Julie Bishop when she was shadow treasurer.

    He was finance spokesman in Opposition and probably not best pleased when that gig went to Cormann and he got trade.

  6. @ 947

    Also, the potential challengers weren’t even trying to gather numbers. The Party is leaking like a sieve, so the moment Malcolm starts calling around asking if he has support, the whole plan will leak, and he will become the cartoon villain… the backstabber.

    It’s hard to see a quick end to this. Nobody wants to be seen as openly gathering support, and Abbott is too tenacious to do the right thing and step down. It may well drag on until the MPs decide that anything is better than the status quo.

  7. I seem to have missed all the highlights today and have relied on bludgers’ reports (a tradesman called, the dog vomited all over my favourite rug, I had to shop for milk – just an average day at the office!).

    But from your reports of Abbott’s reply to Shorten, and Cormann’s conversation with Uhlmann, he’s still stuck in the same groove. Not much barnacle removing evident, it’s all “I hear you and I’ll do better at all the same things as before”.

  9. TrueBlueAussie@952

    Abbott will gracefully resign and hand over the leadership over to Turnbull in a time of his choosing.

    The Coalition is not Labor and is not going to allow regime change by media. Besides there is plenty of time for the polls to go up and down.

    I very much doubt it. Most likely he’ll only lose leadership if defeated in a spill or an election.

  10. Just remember, as bad as you think the Abbott Circus is, there is scope for it to be much worse if you look at other conservative government meltdowns currently underway, ie. NT – the latest is that a CLP member has secretly recorded Adam Giles at a party meeting in Alice Springs yesterday, and released the tape to the media.

    Full-on civil war.

  12. It looks like a good result all round. The Liberals say they’re happy, Labor says it’s delighted.

    It seems the only ones who missed out are the Australian people.

  14. TBA

    [The Coalition is not Labor and is not going to allow regime change by media. Besides there is plenty of time for the polls to go up and down.]

    Up and down like a honeymooner’s nightie. Yeah right.

    Up for Labor, down for the Coalition. The trend is not your friend.

  15. Just an idling fancy, but what if the reason the situation played out as it did is as follows:

    There are three factions, roughly as follows:

    Abbott: 40
    Turnbull: 39
    Morrison: 21

    It may not be Morrison in the third faction, but someone of that ilk.

    My memory of the Lib rules is that they use a form of preferential voting for leader. The candidate with the lowest support eliminated in each round.

    If, understanding that a spill would have seen an Abbott v Turnbull face off, the leader of the third faction would have thrown support behind Abbott.

    So perhaps what matters is until the third faction can draw enough support from Abbott to reliably finish second, not third, in the first round.

    It would completely explain why the leadership speculation has been so fierce but without Turnbull apparently trying to do anything about it.

  16. [Abbott will gracefully resign and hand over the leadership over to Turnbull in a time of his choosing.]

    Abbott will hang on until he’s chuck.

  17. Diogenes, Dave et al.
    Tactical Assault Group East (mainly 2 Commando, based in Sydney) were involved (particularly the snipers), but the siege was under NSW Police command, and operated under “civil” rules of engagement. One of the issues that arises from the death of one of the hostages from shrapnel from police fire is whether high velocity 5.56 rounds were used, or the more conventional 9mm rounds. If M4 carbines were used, someone in the NSW Police is going end up wearing it.

  18. Turnbull hasn’t got the political nous and/or killer instinct to organise and successfully pull of a coup.. But Morrison has..

  20. [Abbott will gracefully resign and hand over the leadership over to Turnbull in a time of his choosing.]

    Yeah, like about 2 hours before it happens Abbott is told to walk the plank or resign?

    The Coalition is not Labor and is not going to allow regime change by media. Besides there is plenty of time for the polls to go up and down.]

    and down and down and down …

  21. [Abbott will gracefully resign and hand over the leadership over to Turnbull in a time of his choosing.]

    Yeah, like about 2 hours before it happens Abbott is told to walk the plank or resign?

    [The Coalition is not Labor and is not going to allow regime change by media. Besides there is plenty of time for the polls to go up and down.]

    and down and down and down …

  22. “Gracefully resign?”

    Hand on heart in the American way, Tony stares mournfully into the camera “It is a far, far better thing that I do…”

    Rubbish!

  23. I agree with Zoomster et al that after not seizing power today, Turnbull looks to have very little chance of ever doing so.

    The leadership will pass from Tony Abbott to a candidate tolerable to the right at some point later this year, I predict.

  24. [
    935
    sohar

    Zoomster @ 913,
    Agree, Turnbull will never be acceptable to party. The hunt is of for someone to groom as Tony’s replacement. Turnbull should have done a Don Chip and formed his own socially moderate and economically extremist party. Bit late for that now.
    ]

    Long been my view that this path would have been his best option to maximise his political influence and retain his personal integrity.

  26. It could well be that only half of those 39 actually wanted Malcolm, the rest wanting anyone but Mal or Tone. I agree that the Libs will have a new leader by year’s end, but it won’t be Mr Turnbull.

  27. The thought of Morrison as PM is frankly terrifying. The man seems seriously nasty, the type who would have ticked off the Jews to work camp or the chambers as they arrived at Auschwitz.

  29. @ 965

    I think you are being overly optimistic to imagine things are that organised.

    I don’t think anyone within the party knows the true numbers. We have a fair idea of the number of politicians who would likely identify with each wing of the party.. but that’s about as far as the certainty goes.

    Modern politics is so leaky, and factions within the Liberal party are so fluid, that the numbers game is far less certain than it may seem at first glance. It won’t be until open warfare is declared that any certainty will be possible on the numbers.

    Plus, there is no formal process for selecting a leader. It’s all based on convention and past practice, which is actually quite unclear and contradictory. That only makes determining numbers even more difficult.

  31. Not only has Abbott and the Liberals not learnt anything, even more tragically, the media hasn’t.

    We now have a string of dutiful reports that Abbott has learnt his lesson and will change. Therefore he will.

    Sad.

  32. Abbott is as likely to graciously hand over to me as he is to graciously hand over to Turnbull.
    I think the “right hoping to hand over to someone other than Turnbull” theory has merit.

  34. sohar

    [It could well be that only half of those 39 actually wanted Malcolm, the rest wanting anyone but Mal or Tone.]

    We must assume that the 39 were the disaffected backbenchers only. How many frontbenchers would have wanted Malcolm? We can’t know, because all frontbenchers (including Mal himself) were compelled to vote against the spill.

    Apparently the Liberal Party bible stipulates that a minister can’t vote for a spill motion against the leader who gave you the ministry. Total horseshit – and very convenient if you’re an embattled leader. Very Orwellian.

  35. @ 984

    How about Abbott just increase the size of the outer ministry, so 51% of the party room have a nominal title?

    Instant stability.

  37. [How about Abbott just increase the size of the outer ministry, so 51% of the party room have a nominal title?]

    Great strategy AJH. The alternative is to keep the ministry the same size, and simply drastically decrease the number of Lib MPs and Senators. It government is on track to pursue the latter strategy.

  38. @Sustainable Future: just listened to that speech myself. Loved the sucker punch of hammering Turnbull for a little bit, until Pyne oh-so-cleverly opined that Shorten had brought the wrong speech – and then seamlessly switching into giving the government as a whole an absolute bollocking.

  39. rhwombat@967

    Diogenes, Dave et al.
    Tactical Assault Group East (mainly 2 Commando, based in Sydney) were involved (particularly the snipers), but the siege was under NSW Police command, and operated under “civil” rules of engagement. One of the issues that arises from the death of one of the hostages from shrapnel from police fire is whether high velocity 5.56 rounds were used, or the more conventional 9mm rounds. If M4 carbines were used, someone in the NSW Police is going end up wearing it.

    I am pretty sure it was M4s they used.

    I was gobsmacked.

  41. The only way Abbott is likely to resign is to visit the GG first and get an election. Then he can announce the election and resign from being PM all in one go. Of course he would tell no one what he is doing so they would find out to their shock and horror at the same time the rest of the country did.

  43. zoomster @ 981

    [We now have a string of dutiful reports that Abbott has learnt his lesson and will change. Therefore he will.]

    They will only look worse when the next gaffe comes along. Mind you, the statement ‘Good Government Starts Today’ has not gotten much press, even though it begs the question of what sort of government does Abbott think he was giving us between September 2013 and yesterday.

  45. “Tough questions from @leighsales to PM Tony Abbott”. What is the capital of Australia? What did you have for breakfast? Yeah, sure – tough questions from Leigh.

  48. I bet Leigh Sales will be pleading for her job tonight with Tony. I bet she didn’t think he’d win the spill when she confronted him last week at the childcare centre. This could be real Game of Thrones stuff.

  49. TPOF

    [‘Good Government Starts Today’ ]
    He should be hammered for that comment. Another question is that after being so shit for so long what possible reason would someone have for believing they are capable of “good government”?

  50. TPOF

    [the statement ‘Good Government Starts Today’ has not gotten much press, even though it begs the question of what sort of government does Abbott think he was giving us between September 2013 and yesterday.]

    Agree – I mean, what’s he saying? They haven’t really been trying until now? Or they were crap and they knew it?

    Only a year ago he was giving his government gold stars – and much more recently, he’s been telling us how fantastic it is.

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