The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.
Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.
Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.
UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.
Now taking odds on whether Tony cries (3-1), or biffs someone (evens).
Well if they’ve got any sense the half decent ministers will vote for the spill.
[I expect the Cabinet + Ministry to break ranks.]
That isn’t how the public statements have been running thus far.
For all intents and purposes it looks like the motion will be defeated.
Lefty you speak of Ruddoch as the undead. Geeeeze, I was watching him on News 24 not that long ago and I was thinking of exactly the same thing.
He has got to be more dead than alive.
Hopefully sanity will be restored tomorrow. I’m not too confident though.
Now taking odds on whether Tony cries (3-1), or biffs someone (evens)
Hockey or Briggs would be a nice start.
Look, @ImstillwithTony, even if the LNP isnt.
@Lefty e 1
6/4 Abbott shakes his head uncontrollably for a few minutes and is asked by a Journo “Mr Abbott, you’re not saying anything?”
Cabinet might not but perhaps the outer ministry will (many looking for promotion 🙂 )
#thechastening
A uniform swing on those numbers would get rid of O’Dwyer, Brough, Prentice, Porter, Christensen, Simpkins, Roy, Dutton, and would be hunting down Pyne.
Please, Liberal party, stick with Tone. Do it for Australia.
[Hopefully sanity will be restored tomorrow. I’m not too confident though]
How are you coping with the Queensland election David? It was a joy to behold, Queenslanders were a lot smarter than I’d expected.
How many ministers have said they will vote for Abbott?
How many have said nothing?
How many have lied?
If the spill fails 52-50 then 90 Liberal members will claim to have voted against it. Some of them while trying to undermine Abbott so that can be another spill in the future.
At this point there’s a fair chance the Ministry are working out where they’d stand under Turnbull.
[Please, Liberal party, stick with Tone. Do it for Australia.]
Yes, think of the national interest.
I don’t know why the pro-spill vote should lose momentum.
You don’t have to be a hero to vote to get rid of the boss, if it’s a SECRET ballot.
Can’t think why Maiden is talking about a “wimp” vote. There are no wimps when it’s anonymous.
I don’t know about anyone else, but I have a distinct feeling that I won’t wake up tomorrow with the “Oh no it’s Monday” blues.
I think it is going to be a fun week.
Must get to bed now as I might need my strength tomorrow. I seem to buckle up easily if I laugh for more than 30 minutes at a time.
[Please, Liberal party, stick with Tone. Do it for Australia.]
This is what I’m thinking 😉
If the Liberals want to change they should do it NOW, else they will just have to do it in a month or two and will thus look like a huge pack of incompetents.
Gary Sparrow@1064
So Glenn – you voted tory in 2013. Helped install an abbott government.
Take a bow….
And will vote tory again in 2016 ?
The wonder of Karma. All this crap falling on Abbott’s head is truly gratifying since I was worried Abbott would wangle the PMship for 6 years just because he had the audacity to lie so baldly and blatantly.
Sigh. The universe always balances eventually.
This poll will change nothing re: voting tomorrow. Every single Lib in the room knows Abbott will not win the next election. But it won’t sway them all. Yet. A few months of jostling to go yet.
I will if Turnbull or Bishop is PM.
[And will vote tory again in 2016 ?]
Of course he will, as will David, as will PvO.
jeffemu@4
abbott should knight him….
Good chance of that Glory.
This has the makings of a 2-rounder.
[Sigh. The universe always balances eventually.]
But it is nice to see it doing it so quickly. And I may have just been careless with my observation but I don’t see you post that often and it is great to see you.
@21 – I wouldn’t be anywhere near as confident as you are.
This poll replicated at an election with a uniform swing, would knock Pyne out, as well as the member for Boothby, surely?
Gary Sparrow@22
You help create this situation with this dysfunctional tory government.
Danby reckons its Turnbull. Dont know where he gets his odds from
https://twitter.com/michaeldanbymp/status/564234041130360832
I tried 🙁
[This poll will change nothing re: voting tomorrow. Every single Lib in the room knows Abbott will not win the next election. But it won’t sway them all. Yet. A few months of jostling to go yet.]
Looks like it. But still, total and complete madness. The opportunity is there, so they should grab it.
Well dave, if Labor weren’t so dysfunctional in the first place people wouldn’t have voted them out and got Abbott!
confessions, I think Pyne usually does well compared to swings so I expect him to get less of a swing against him than the uniform swing.
Abbott at 3.50 to survive is good money
confessions – yes, a uniform swing would have Southcott out of Boothby as well (yay!).
I only mentioned either the big hitters in the current government or backbenchers who’ve been agitating in the past week.
[I tried :(]
The Queensland election renewed my faith in democracy, it was always greater than Abbotts (with his stupidcrack about Victorians making a mistake) but it is good to see the good prevail against the darkness.
@35 – are these the same agencies who gave short odds to an LNP majority in QLD?
A three word slogan?
[Just like Gillard]
Dissatisfaction Gillard September 2011 -68%
[Well dave, if Labor weren’t so dysfunctional in the first place people wouldn’t have voted them out and got Abbott!]
They were dysfunctional there is no doubt about that but Abbott played a role in that failure of Government with his lies and distortions as surely as he played a hand in his own failure. It is interesting in a way that he killed himself with lies and evil faster than he killed Labor.
Some have suggested Abbott May punch someone
They way he is going he will most likely miss the target and KO himself
I am assuming that Peta wont be invited to the party room meeting? 😀
Hi WWP.
Yeah, I got so disheartened when Gillard, Combet and the others went down I had to walk away for a while. The treachery of certain male pollies on both sides, to the detriment of this country, simply floored me.
Now it seems Karma is catching up with them and I can cease railing at the universe!
What happens if the spill motion is tied?
If Abbott has the casting vote, a la Gorton, he will almost certainly use it to keep himself in office.
If a tied vote fails automatically, Senate style, the he stays.
Only if a tied spill vote passes does the spill proceed in the event of a tie.
Gary Sparrow@33
They got budgets and most other bills passed.
Plus the debt was a hell of a lot smaller – your lot look like doubling the debt this term.
Lack of scrutiny got abbott home plus poorly chosen voting.
But cheer up, abbott will take turnbull down with him – one way or another 🙂
If the spill motion is tied Abbott would be basically forced to stand down
Dave @45:
Oh, how I wish that were a guarantee. But the media are embarrassing with the “Turnbull-as-Jesus- routine they’re pulling lately.
Gary Sparrow@42
Someone will be needed to tell elected members what they can and can’t do.
[Yeah, I got so disheartened when Gillard, Combet and the others went down I had to walk away for a while. The treachery of certain male pollies on both sides, to the detriment of this country, simply floored me.
Now it seems Karma is catching up with them and I can cease railing at the universe!]
I understand. I don’t see it purely as a gender issue but that might be because I’m of the gender with institutional advantage and bias of 100’s of years in the making. I have observed that both Labor and Liberal have lots of good people and lots of bad people and that the good people don’t prevail nearly as often as one would hope.
43
jenauthor
[Posted Sunday, February 8, 2015 at 10:29 pm | PERMALINK
Hi WWP.
Yeah, I got so disheartened when Gillard, Combet and the others went down I had to walk away for a while. The treachery of certain male pollies on both sides, to the detriment of this country, simply floored me.
Now it seems Karma is catching up with them and I can cease railing at the universe!]
Good to see you back. 🙂