Galaxy: 57-43 to Labor

A second Galaxy poll in consecutive weekends confirms last week’s disaster for Tony Abbott, although hypothetical voting intention questions under a Turnbull or Bishop scenario are slightly less bad for him than those served up by ReachTEL.

The News Corporation tabloids take a second bite of the Galaxy cherry in successive weekends, to mark the occasion of the looming Liberal leadership spill. It confirms last week’s shattering result for Tony Abbott in putting the Labor lead at 57-43. The inevitable questions on voting intention under Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop aren’t quite as dramatic as ReachTEL’s, with Labor maintaining leads of 51-49 under a Turnbull scenario and 53-47 under Bishop. On a straight question of whether Tony Abbott should resign, 55% say yes and 35% say no, in case anyone’s wondering what might distinguish this leadership change from what happened in 2010. Primary votes and such to follow. HT: GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: All primary votes were perfectly unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 36%, Labor on 43%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 3%. A further question found only 24% anticipating that Tony Abbott would lead the Liberals to the next election, compared with 63% who believe he will not.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,083 comments on “Galaxy: 57-43 to Labor”

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  1. Newspoll

    57-43 2PP to Labor
    Primaries: Coalition 35, Labor 41, Greens 12, Others 12
    Better PM: Abbott 30, Shorten 48
    Abbott: Satisfied 24, Dissatisfied 68
    Shorten: Satisfied 42, Dissatisfied 40

    Best to Lead Liberals:
    Abbott 25, Turnbull 64
    Abbott: 27, Bishop 59
    Turnbull 49, Bishop 38

    Feb 6-8, 1178 sample

  2. meher baba@1036

    Abbott needs someone sitting in his office, day and night, who is so scary that he (Abbott) wouldn’t dare even to go to the dunny without consulting them first.

    In short, a minder/nanny. Someone to protect him from himself.

    What you are really saying is he is not fit to be PM.

    Thats very old news – even to those who dare not admit it – ie those in the party, his base, his donors etc etc who don’t give a stuff about their country just their own wallets.

    If they did he would be out on his arse tonight!

  3. The MP is short pants is up for a spill

    [James O’Doherty ‏@jmodoh 1m1 minute ago
    . @Wyatt_MP says a spill is needed to ensure the govt is engaged with voters @SkyNewsAust #libspill]

  4. meher baba
    For “donut” read “doubt”. Spellcheck on my device clearly having a Homer Simpson moment.
    Solution just press the any key.

  5. Thanks JAmes J.

    Agree with PvO. If the Liberal partyroom don’t wake up and smell the reality, then god knows what planet they’re on.

  6. confessions

    PvO damned right. Why speak out publicly knowing what would happen if they did ? Now in a secret ballot however 😉

  7. [Best to Lead Liberals:
    Abbott 25, Turnbull 64]

    I reckon its 55-47 for the spill

    Then Bishop for PM and Turnbull for Treasurer and Deputy

    You heard it here first folks

    T-11 hours and counting…..

  8. [No, they need more bleeding and flailing around first. A few more captains calls about major contracts wont hurt either.

    Get Monday over and done, then get out of the way since Tony and Jo have a Budget to do dont cha know?? :)]
    I think Tony is worried that the new PM will have too much time for a budget. I think he wants to leave the new PM only 3 or 4 weeks to do a budget so he is going to hang on for a while longer.

  9. Not quite as much spinal reinforcement as a 59-41 would have been but still should put enough steel in there to get it done.

    If they don’t pull the trigger they will simply look like buffoons who can’t take a very loudly shouted hint from the public.

  10. [57-43 2PP to Labor
    Primaries: Coalition 35, Labor 41, Greens 12, Others 12
    Better PM: Abbott 30, Shorten 48
    Abbott: Satisfied 24, Dissatisfied 68
    Shorten: Satisfied 42, Dissatisfied 40

    Best to Lead Liberals:
    Abbott 25, Turnbull 64
    Abbott: 27, Bishop 59
    Turnbull 49, Bishop 38

    Feb 6-8, 1178 sample]

    Just a flesh wound!

  11. Confessions @ 1010: There wasn’t an identified challenger when John Gorton fell. In the aftermath of the resignation of Malcolm Fraser as Defence Minister, the coalition was facing a no-confidence motion in the House. A motion of confidence in Gorton as PM was moved in the party room, and tied. Gorton then exercised his casting vote against his continuing in office. McMahon at that point agreed to run.

    The full story is in the Postscripts to Alan Reid’s classic book The Gorton Experiment, into which I’ve just been dipping. The parallels between then and now are really quite remarkable. To give just one juicy quote: “The government was reeling like a punch drunk boxer from one Gorton-induced crisis to another, crises for which Gorton must take responsibility, [David] Fairbairn said.”

  12. VOTE FOR TONE. !!!!

    C’mon Fibs youse can’t be like Labor. The Imbecile Tone, he has got to be a ‘keeper’.

    Keep him firing on all threes. Youse have an election to fight.

  13. [I expect the Cabinet + Ministry to break ranks.]

    That isn’t how the public statements have been running thus far.

    For all intents and purposes it looks like the motion will be defeated.

  14. turnbull better win or his has no reputation …. either that or quit ministry – where is the hunger passion determination and honesty …. his waiting game is worse than geoff boycott century (how do i remember that – banality rules)

  15. J341983 @ 1079: Exactly. Almost every comment I’ve read here in the last 18 months has told me that this government is stuffed with liars to bursting point. That being so, I think we can take it as given that they will be lying to each other and to the public without compunction, provided that they know that they can never be proven to have lied.

  16. Them is big numbers, given Malcolm is behaving himself well today he may have the keys to a newly refurbished lodge on tuesday.

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