Galaxy: 57-43 to Labor

A second Galaxy poll in consecutive weekends confirms last week’s disaster for Tony Abbott, although hypothetical voting intention questions under a Turnbull or Bishop scenario are slightly less bad for him than those served up by ReachTEL.

The News Corporation tabloids take a second bite of the Galaxy cherry in successive weekends, to mark the occasion of the looming Liberal leadership spill. It confirms last week’s shattering result for Tony Abbott in putting the Labor lead at 57-43. The inevitable questions on voting intention under Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop aren’t quite as dramatic as ReachTEL’s, with Labor maintaining leads of 51-49 under a Turnbull scenario and 53-47 under Bishop. On a straight question of whether Tony Abbott should resign, 55% say yes and 35% say no, in case anyone’s wondering what might distinguish this leadership change from what happened in 2010. Primary votes and such to follow. HT: GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: All primary votes were perfectly unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 36%, Labor on 43%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 3%. A further question found only 24% anticipating that Tony Abbott would lead the Liberals to the next election, compared with 63% who believe he will not.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,083 comments on “Galaxy: 57-43 to Labor”

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  1. [998
    meher baba

    There would need to be a new, all-powerful senior adviser installed in his office: not to replace Credlin, who has always done fine in her role as principal spin doctor, but to provide a buffer between Abbott and the levers of executive government. That is, his/her role would involve 24/7 vigilance to prevent captain’s picks.

    Who is this person? No name has been announced. Without such a person in control, nothing can change.]

    They need to create a new Cabinet post – Cabinet Secretary or Special Minister of State – whose role would be to foster consultation and communication/co-ordination all round. Bob Hawke had one (Mick Young). Such a minister would not have executive responsibilities, but political ones.

  2. It’s disappointing to find that Sky inflicts Paul Murray on us even on a night when he doesn’t have a show. Well, at least they keep him away in the daytime.

  3. For the ALP the benefits of a narrow Abbott win tomorrow will go far beyond just the fact that he will continue to hang around damaging his own brand.

    By forcing his Ministers to lock in behind them, he will owe them, big time. And the ones to whom he will owe the most just happen to be the duds he should be getting rid of, who plainly saw coming out in his support as a way of protecting their own positions under him: Hockey, Dutton, Brandeis etc.

    If it’s close, he won’t be able to afford to alienate any of them. His political authority will be calamitously diminished. And the one’s who supported the spill will know they have no future under him, and so might well start freelancing on policy issues, such as the Laming Bill on knights and dames. All of this will seem familiar to those of us who lived through the Gorton era.

  4. So we’re no closer to having a clue about tonight’s Newspoll?

    Chris Kenny should stick to whingeing about the ABC and leave the reporting to those who know what they’re doing.

  5. @1005 – I think the tone was pretty clear, the TPP and approvals have gotten worse and Abbott performs worse against the alternatives.

  6. So it was a fake ghost tweet earlier?

    My brain says a 52:48 rogue to keep Abbott safe would be best, my heart would love a 60:40

  7. [All of this will seem familiar to those of us who lived through the Gorton era.]

    Is this the first Liberal leadership of the modern era where there’s been a distinct absence of ministers or front benchers publicly oppose the leader?

  8. Briefly

    [They need to create a new Cabinet post – Cabinet Secretary or Special Minister of State ]

    Umm, the Cabinet Secretary is Phillip Ruddock. The Special Minister for State is Michael Ronaldson.

    Abbott-minding is in good (albeit somewhat indolent) hands already.

  9. Murray just said that a source inside ‘The Australian’ has just told him that the latest Newspoll figures approach those obtaining just before the Liberals sacked Turnbull.

  10. Boerwar

    After all his Abbott boosting tonight Murray saying that made me wonder if the fake GhostWhoVotes tweet may not in fact be real 🙂 How sad if it were so. 🙂

  11. this was the last newspoll in November 2009 before Turnbull got the bullet

    43-57 2PP, and his disapproval rating was even then still miles ahead of Abbott’s now..

  12. Boerwar:

    Totally OTT bootsrapping for Murdoch’s outlets.

    Am starting to think this thoroughly overhyped Newspoll is pretty much business as usual MoE and therefore nothing to see here.

  13. 1014
    Posted Sunday, February 8, 2015 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    Murray just said that a source inside ‘The Australian’ has just told him that the latest Newspoll figures approach those obtaining just before the Liberals sacked Turnbull.

    In November 2009, Newspoll recorded 43/57 in favour of Labor, from primaries of 35/43.,d.dGY

  14. [Anyone here think the spill motion will be successful tomorrow?]

    Latest from Kieran Gilbert:

    [Kieran Gilbert ‏@Kieran_Gilbert 54m54 minutes ago
    I know reports to the contrary but I’m picking up optimism among those pushing spill – set to come down to wavering frontbenchers #libspill]

  15. My brain must be addled but I remember Bludgers blasting Newspolls results for Gillard as Modor biased crap, whats changed?

  16. [ Anyone here think the spill motion will be successful tomorrow? ]

    No, they need more bleeding and flailing around first. A few more captains calls about major contracts wont hurt either.

    Get Monday over and done, then get out of the way since Tony and Jo have a Budget to do dont cha know?? 🙂

  17. mikehilliard, there were always a few voices crying that Newspoll was rigged. But only a very few, not taken seriously by the majority.

  18. @1026 – that was something that always pissed me off about my fellow lefties. If Newspoll was bad, it was biased LNP friendly MSM, if it was good, YAY!

  19. [
    My brain must be addled but I remember Bludgers blasting Newspolls results for Gillard as Modor biased crap, whats changed?

    Newspoll currently has Labor in the lead, that’s whats changed.

    I’m fairly sure that as soon as Newspoll starts showing Labor behind, we’ll start to see the same idiotic complaints reappear.

  20. Briefly

    That would be kinda cute. The Tories sacked Turnbull cos the polling was crap. Now it is that crap again they might make him PM.

    The mind boggles.

  21. briefly and sprocket: Special Ministers of State and Cabinet Secretaries are underlings. Abbott needs someone sitting in his office, day and night, who is so scary that he (Abbott) wouldn’t dare even to go to the dunny without consulting them first. Someone whose first loyalty is not to Abbott, but to the party machine. pre-briefs the media before each Prime Ministerial announcement, with Abbott not being allowed to announce anything to anyone unless and until that pre-briefing has taken place.

    In short, a minder/nanny. Someone to protect him from himself.

    I seriously donut he’d put up with it. But it’s surely the only way forward. As the old saying goes “trust is good, but control is better”. Anyway, there isn’t any trust left.

  22. @1019

    The difference is that MT was Opp leader and Abbott is PM. MT screwed up just been in opposition. Abbott on the other hand has to make some tough decisions even though every one of them are unfair. He hasn’t helped himself by screwing up so many times. MT’s only campaign, the Republic, was an absolute disaster and his main opponent then was TA

  23. [Paul Murray ‏@PMOnAir 18m18 minutes ago
    If #Turnbull is doing so well why have only half a dozen MP’s got the balls to publicly back the spill? You need more than hype for a coup.

    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP
    .@PMOnAir because of the disgraceful way the PM & PMO (and I mean Peta Credlin) exercise payback. A key reason they are in this royal mess.]

  24. rossmcg @956, the problem for Abbott is he’s got to appease two very different constituencies. He’s in trouble with the conservative base for not being conservative enough, go figure, and he’s got Labor/Liberal centrists who think he’s too right wing. It’s a diabolical conundrum that is obviously beyond Abbott’s ability to solve, appeasing one pisses off the other. As a politics watcher I’m loving it and want him to hang on until the election so he can be kicked out on his arse. As an Australian watching his country going backwards to the future I want him gone tomorrow morning, first thing.

  25. poroti@1033


    Newspoll have changed policy and now publish the “truth” ” ?

    abbott has been committing a most heinous crime for some time now.

    Being a loser.

    Unforgivable by the tories really, even if widely expected elsewhere.

  26. I wonder if Abbott’s move to allow SA to bid on the submarine contract is actually a sign of weakness and the numbers are close.

    Alternatively it might be a repeat of his “no cuts to education, no cuts to health, ……” election eve promise, unnecessary and undisciplined.

    I think the latter.

  27. meher:

    On that ABbott minder thing, I’m curious as to why Credlin hasn’t fallen on her sword yet given all the chitter chatter and Murdochia outrage about her.

    Perhaps she offered to resign, yet her resignation was refused because Abbott (or someone who has his counsel) recognises all you state.

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