The News Corporation tabloids take a second bite of the Galaxy cherry in successive weekends, to mark the occasion of the looming Liberal leadership spill. It confirms last week’s shattering result for Tony Abbott in putting the Labor lead at 57-43. The inevitable questions on voting intention under Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop aren’t quite as dramatic as ReachTEL’s, with Labor maintaining leads of 51-49 under a Turnbull scenario and 53-47 under Bishop. On a straight question of whether Tony Abbott should resign, 55% say yes and 35% say no, in case anyone’s wondering what might distinguish this leadership change from what happened in 2010. Primary votes and such to follow. HT: GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: All primary votes were perfectly unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 36%, Labor on 43%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 3%. A further question found only 24% anticipating that Tony Abbott would lead the Liberals to the next election, compared with 63% who believe he will not.
[“@latikambourke: Bill Shorten ‘It wasn’t the thousands of shipbuilding jobs at risk that forced Tony Abbott to act – it was the threat of losing his own job””]
AddJapanese Prime Minister Abe, Tony bestest friend in Asia, to the list of those whom he has betrayed in order to save his own skin.
Re submarines: imagine the furore if Rudd or Gillard had done something similar.
Best scenario for the Libs:
Abbott resigns – not only from PMship but from Parliament.
The Liberal party appoints someone relatively unknown but competent (e.g. Christian Porter) who has very little baggage.
That person appoints a virtually new Cabinet (demoting Hockey, Pyne, Abetz, Dutton..).
They all say that it is clear the government needs to drastically revamp its policies.
It has eighteen months to prove its competence and establish a sense of trust.
Won’t happen.
Oakes is grumpy at the twitter rumours circulating about his Ch9 report:
[LaurieOakes @LaurieOakes · 3m 3 minutes ago
And I’ve been busy working, not focused on Twitter rumours.]
Of that I have no doubt, citizen.
Not sure you sell the budget out to the tune of $40b to lock in one vote if you have the remotest concern for your dignity.
Abbott’s going down fighting. But I think he’ll survive Monday. The next QT is going to be a hoot.
Boerwar
The link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8QKbeS-flM
zoomster:
With the number of egos all with an inflated sense of entitlement brimming the partyroom, there’s no chance a newby like Porter will be elected leader.
But essentially, I agree. Lucky for Labor Abbott looks likely to prevail tomoz. 🙂
Just heard Turnbull’s statement from this morning saying that if there’s a spill anyone can nominate – he sounded extremely weak. He spoke like a loser. I’m not say he knows he doesn’t have the numbers just saying that he is being too careful
“@latikambourke: RT @bradders2: @TonyAbbottMHR tells @CUhlmann on @abcnews he could get rolled tomorrow”
OK!!OK!!
I admit to actually liking blue ties.
But not the awful, nasty, blue ties worn by Abbott.
I used to be indifferent to tie colour – never really noticed them. But Abbott’s blue tie fetish has completely turned me off blue ties of any hue.
Our CEO wore a hot pink tie the other day and I couldn’t help but think what a welcome sight it was.
Disgraceful behaviour by Abbott on the subs. Surely this alone should justify his exit.
Noteworthy that Abbott’s answer to ‘why should you remain PM?” is never “Because I have a vision for Australia and am the best person to deliver it” but “because Labor”.
That’s what struck me zoomster – his only argument to be kept as leader is one of optics, not achievement or possibility of achievement.
Tom Hawkins
[saying that if there’s a spill anyone can nominate – he sounded extremely weak]
NO ! He was countering the “you must vote for” shit that Tones and his backers have been spouting. Expressed however in a way that does not sound disloyal in the least. Direct pitch and reminder to the swinging votes. In the same way he pointed out that the PMship “is the gift” of the party room .
FFS
FIrst a double foot rub from Chris then a back rub from ABC News
Abbott demonstrating what he’s good at with his answer about the subs.
Could mean anything he wants it to.
poroti
I’m not talking about his words. I’m referring to his presentation which came across to me as weak. He is normally over confident cruising into arrogance.
[Samantha Maiden @samanthamaiden · 5m 5 minutes ago
Most Liberals MPs now think that spill motion will fail. Some MPs spooked. May explain Turnbulll decision today not to release a statement.]
Yep, looks like another Hockey budget. I hope he’s packed more cigars.
Just saw a govt ad re uni education. Apparently there will be thousands of scholarships available blah blah blah
Well I thought Uhlman was suitably tough and asked all the right questions, including the one about “how do you carry on from this now you are clearly doomed.”
There’s no pleasing some people.
[Disgraceful behaviour by Abbott on the subs. Surely this alone should justify his exit.]
If I were one of the south australians I’d be rushing to the phone for an explanation over that one. Just reinforces that Abbott is a sociopathic liar.
meher,
Knowing what I now know about Uhlman, it sounds like he’s just reading out the prepared questions but doesn’t really care.
Now the bloody ABC running promo for 60 seconds, too late to sell the ABC it’s been given away
fess
What are the MPs spooked about?
Insiders retweeted
“@KelMayo: You can see #insiders host Barrie Cassidy on @ABCTV ‘s special leadership coverage tomorrow #auspol”
Abbott has no intention of awarding SA with the sub contract. It’s simply to stall his inevitable removal. The tenders will never see that light of day under a Lib government as it will be treated as commercial in confidence. That should give Labor something concrete to offer South Australians. Elect us and we will show you the contracts just as Andrews exposed the Lib conmen who lost office in Victoria.
I thought Abbott’s i.v. with Uhlmann was below par. He repeated his vision from the Press Club as the reason he should be retained.
He went completely waffly when C.U. tackled him about the submarine “evaluation”, insisting that it had always been their policy, and when Chris said how come nobody knew about it until today, TA said it wasn’t going to happen for months anyway.
If the MP trusts him after that “explanation”, he’s a gullible fool.
victoria:
They’re still spruiking their university reforms? What an unbelievable waste of public funds!
[What are the MPs spooked about?]
Some MPs know it will be a worse look for the number of votes to spill to be high but fail, so will vote no just for that reason.
meher
The odd back hander with a limp wrist from Chris doesn’t replace incisive probing questions
Chris like Abbott is plain lazy & goes for easy delivery of prepared one liners
Chris has zip emotion or involvement as if on medication
I hope they keep Abbott tomorrow for Labor’s sake. But honestly they are absolutely fucking clueless if they do. Clueless.
fess@820. That’s looking pretty clear now: only a handful of parliamentarians have spoken out in favour of the spill.
Down here in Tassie we have had Abetz “speaking on behalf” of all seven Lib MPs and senators that they will be voting against the spill.
It’s surely a Pyrrhic victory for Abbott. I was thinking that it would only be a day or so after the vote before we’d see another gaffe. But I have already been proven wrong: he’s gotten in early with the submarine thing.
Abbott showed that he has absolutely no vision. If less than 30 MPs vote for a spill, the entire lot should be shown the door.
[Samantha Maiden @samanthamaiden · 5m 5 minutes ago
Momentum important here. If MPs think motion will not be successful margin will be whittled down by wimp vote. Was talk of 40 originally.]
[ In what universe is this conduct acceptable?
I’m told Senator Sean Edwards will vote against the spill after PM assured him there will be an open tender for building submarine fleet ]
And The Senator believes him?? He should realize that its an unscripted line in the heat of the moment.
That said an open tender for that project is a good idea.
I’m off now. Thanks for entertaining conversation all day, bludgers 🙂
victoria:
Reckon they’re spooked the motion would fail if it winds up a close vote. That would be incredibly divisive esp with all the shit that’s gone down already.
[That said an open tender for that project is a good idea.]
An open tender simply means that qualified parties can submit a bid. It doesn’t mean that the bids will be shown to the public
[Some MPs know it will be a worse look for the number of votes to spill to be high but fail, so will vote no just for that reason.]
That’s a more plausible explanation.
Was also wondering whether after what we’ve seen from Abbott the past few days, whether they’d be worrying exactly what they’d unleash if they removed him from the leadership.
As well as desperately trying to hold on, Abbott is doing his best to poison the well if he is removed.
Saying to remove him would be to make the Libs the same as the Labor Party puts any successor in a position where they can’t make any argument for better stability under the coalition than Labor.
Despite all the smart money apparently saying he will survive tomorrow I’m pretty sure it’s still an open contest. If he does hang on the Libs are basically committing political suicide and maybe enough of them will realise this before the time comes to vote tomorrow.
I think the votes are going to go with the polls in the end.
Survival first.
meher baba
‘Twas indeed a tough question . Your “There’s no pleasing some people.” gave me a big larf . It brought to mind the Life of Brian scene of the ‘miracle’ where a leper was cured. Cured leper pissed and moaned about losing his profession as a beggar. Passer by said the same thing.
[I think the votes are going to go with the polls in the end.
Survival first.]
A significant portion of the party room will be deluded enough to think minor events could potentially intervene to save them before the election in 18 months. This may change as the election gets closer, but unfortunately I think we’re stuck with Abbott for probably another 6 months to a year. Nightmarish stuff. I just want him gone now.
meher:
Personally I cannot see Abbott rehabilitating his leadership. Not only is he incompetent, but is temperamentally unsuited to the role.
I don’t get why the partyroom isn’t grabbing this opportunity to remove him with both hands if only in the hopes that his replacement can restore public faith in the govt. Then there’s the competence aspect.
Newspoll is a genuine factor here. If it is in Galaxy territory or worse, it will help the spill cause.
Yes Chris Uhlmann’s questioning was fair. There’s really not “gotcha” moment on offer in situations like this. Abbott has rehearsed all his lines, all Uhlmann can do is ask the tough questions, as he did, knowing full well, Abbott is hardly likely to break down weeping and say: “You’re right! I hereby resign. I’m a dreadful failure.”
Also bear in mind that Uhlmann’s old mate Simkin was standing just outside the camera view eye-balling Uhlmann for all he was worth.
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 1m 1 minute ago
If tomorrow’s Newspoll doesn’t get the attention of the Liberal party room I will be absolutely shocked…]