The News Corporation tabloids take a second bite of the Galaxy cherry in successive weekends, to mark the occasion of the looming Liberal leadership spill. It confirms last week’s shattering result for Tony Abbott in putting the Labor lead at 57-43. The inevitable questions on voting intention under Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop aren’t quite as dramatic as ReachTEL’s, with Labor maintaining leads of 51-49 under a Turnbull scenario and 53-47 under Bishop. On a straight question of whether Tony Abbott should resign, 55% say yes and 35% say no, in case anyone’s wondering what might distinguish this leadership change from what happened in 2010. Primary votes and such to follow. HT: GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: All primary votes were perfectly unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 36%, Labor on 43%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 3%. A further question found only 24% anticipating that Tony Abbott would lead the Liberals to the next election, compared with 63% who believe he will not.
Agreed on Newspoll. A real shocker could sway some waverers. Still, it would appear Abbott has used all his street fighting skills to apparently live to fight another day beyond tomorrow, if the latest round of punditry is to be believed. Still, that could all change by morning.
Amanda Vanstone of all people made the point in her column that Abbott is poisoning the well for any PM taking over from him with all this stuff about “looking just like Labor”.
confessions@850
Are we likely to know tonight? Or early tomorrow?
don:
Apparently Chris Kenny is sharing the first glimpse of Newspoll on his program tonight, so I’d say the results will be out later on.
PvO would say that about a 54-46 to be honest.
Don
8 tonight Sky is doing preview of Newspoll
@854 – At least it wasn’t ‘wow’
PVO famously overhypes Newspolls, but you’d have to think it could be pretty awful. On the flipside, isn’t this kind of “priced in”. Liberal MPs will be expecting a shocker – so how shocking is beyond what they expect? Would even 57 – 43 be a genuine shock? or is it more to do with Abbott’s personal ratings that might stand to cause MPs to think twice as they enter the party room.
[Apparently Chris Kenny is sharing the first glimpse of Newspoll on his program tonight, so I’d say the results will be out later on.]
But no one watches that program so it’s no help.
Don’t get why there would be any wimp element.
Secret Ballot. Unless it’s show and tell kinda ‘secret’ ballot they will vote how they want to ministry and all. What’s Abbott going to say when he loses?
I hope they do wimp it. I hope they saddle themselves with the same nitwits preparing the next budget and trying to push stupid policies through a senate that isn’t going to budge and crash Baird’s campaign. But I can’t believe even Liberals that believed in their own magic fairy dust are dense enough to think hanging on with Abbott for a day longer than necessary does them any favours at all.
Meaningless pvo tweet. He does it regularly.
alias
PvO saying he would be shocked if no attention paid by party room is just stating the obvious that polls will count in the decision.
alias @849
[Also bear in mind that Uhlmann’s old mate Simkin was standing just outside the camera view eye-balling Uhlmann for all he was worth.
]
What would this achieve ? Uhlmann would have to have better job security than Simkin now.
I do remember the photo of Abbotts interview with Credlin just out of shot.
meher baba
The “There’s no pleasing some people” scene . Start at 1:10 for the crucial bit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTJFwwJ7VF8
Re AJM @843:
[As well as desperately trying to hold on, Abbott is doing his best to poison the well if he is removed.]
I was thinking that as well. All that crap about the ‘people’ choosing the PM and only they can ditch him sounds like the Liberal’s usual tactic of repeating a convenient lie loudly and often, unchallenged by a lazy media when they don’t actively help push it. But in this case the constituency is the Liberal Party room. They know better and many must be greatly annoyed at this line. After all, they choose the leader.
Yes, looks like Abbott will pass McMahon and Holt. Hopefully the economy doesn’t tank and war doesn’t break out in the next 6-12 months.
alias:
PvO has a longstanding habit of ‘wow-ing’ at Newspoll without warrant.
I’ll just wait to see what the results are when they come out.
Abbott needs less advice from Peta Credlin and more advice from Philip Nitschke.
The bits of Newspoll that PVO is probably referring to will be the Abbott v Alternatives. You’ll probably see the same sort of 10 point turn around for Turnbull we saw with Reachtel (?)
abbott has no substance. nowhere man. tool of murdoch and rest. profoundly simplistic bordering on George W. Go away
PVO: the boy who cried “wow”.
confessions@853
Thanks ‘Fess and Guytaur, much appreciated.
If it is a doozy, I wonder what effect it will have on tomorrow’s meeting?
meher baba@823
The ABC gave abbott very favourable coverage tonight IMO.
It is valid however to mention they provided Nil coverage of how this all came about – the lies, lies about lies and how people apparently heard promises other than the ones abbott made. The refusal to admit such serial porkies.
The ABC didn’t touch on the simmering discontent within the tories own ranks about the PMO and COS who are unelected yet have had an iron clad veto over the elected members etc for almost 5 years.
The ABC also didn’t mention how abbott has denied there was discontent, how *he* was elected by voters to be PM, when he was elected the member for Waringah, then elected leader by his party room.
The ABC didn’t mention how abbott’s position has changed over the last week on a range of points as it became clear what trouble he was in with his party room and because of his own goals.
Point I’m making in each the aspects above when it came to Labor – the stuffing was kicked out of them and all the negatives were trotted out in detail.
Piss poor effort ABC. Scared of being shouted at again by the tories so you take the easy option. Again. Still.
ratsak:
You’re probably right.
After a thorough and detailed 30 minutes examination of this $40b submarine decision Abbott has sold out whatever principles he had.
I think the spill motion will fail tomorrow. Abbott will spend a month swinging in the breeze before Turnbull is drafted to take over in about 1 month.
There are some PB commentators who wont be happy till the ABC reporters take off their shoes and throw them at Abbott. It is not the job of journos to destroy politicians – the job is to question them so we can judge whether we will destroy them.
Attack their pathetic commentary about what is going on by all means. Different matter when they venture a personal opinion.
ratsak@859
Yep. If abbott is still PM later tomorrow and turnbull is further distrusted and ostracised as payback from abbott it will only help Labor.
abbott the gift that keeps giving to Labor ?
Geoffrey
[profoundly simplistic bordering on George W. Go away]
Bordering ! They are twins. They have so much in common.
Geoffrey
[profoundly simplistic bordering on George W. Go away]
Bordering ! They are twins. They have so much in common.
But seriously, would Turnbull want to inherit Abbott’s cack-splattered clown convention?
Ah ha!
Yes, an MP would have to be a dimwit to take the Rabbott at his word.
[In an exclusive interview with ABC political editor Chris Uhlmann, Mr Abbott said he had “always intended” to open up the bids to tender and denied it was a multi-billion-dollar bargain for party room votes.
“We are still a long way from doing this,” Mr Abbott said.
“The decision on this needs to be made by the end of the year at the latest, but nevertheless it is something which is still evolving, as you’d expect.”]
When it comes to the Tories and the media, one thing must be remembered: If you’re not selling their perspective, 24/7, without exception – you’re “left-biased” and to be tarred and feathered.
Especially if you’re the ABC.
Now is the winter of our discontent made yet in glorious summer
And all the clouds that once graced our house with good fortune
In the deep bosom of neglected oceans will be buried
after the bard – its time to make moral fable of this powerplay of one deluded leader. this travesty of all we might value.
and he was but smoke made with the fume of lies
Matt
I listened to some talk back this morning on 3aw tory radio. Callers accused the ABC of fuelling leadrshit. They said wtte that why would ABC be cheerleading fir the demise if Abbott. That is not want Labor want. Talk about deluded!
Inner Westie @879:
Sure he would! He’s a better salesman than Abbott, and the media have already (predictably) started their fawning all over him.
He’ll cruise through the rest of the term, win an easy re-election and never once be asked a tough question – standard Tory treatment, since he’s smart enough not to bite the hand that feeds him.
The Galaxy from this thread is not so flattering for Turnbull as the earlier knee-jerk one. People have probably thought about MT more. Newspoll probably similar to Galaxy for Abbott and Turnbull. Will we hear more about Godwin’s email and its purveyor, Malcolm, in coming weeks?
Ahhhh typos!
Wakefield@875
The ABC failed to cover why and how this situation came about.
Its a pretty slow news night overall so they had and used quite a bit of time on this topic.
They just failed to canvas both sides of the situation adequately.
It was a very very poor effort.
Newspoll has “very bad news for Tony Abbott” … Kenny.
“Very bad news indeed for Abbott in tomorrow’s NewsPoll” – Chris Kenny
Oh woe!
Newspoll dire for Abbott apparently.
Hasn’t mattered yet.
As a small business owner (one hat I wear), I desperately hope that Abbott is removed tomorrow. The surge in confidence among the population will be enough to get many floundering businesses over the line until March, when people start spending again. Feb is always a bad month – back to school, credit card bills from the Christmas card bills.
The money that Abbott and Co have currently ripped out of the economy – cuts to pensioner benefits, loss of school kids bonus, plus what they are threatening to rip out – increased tertiary education fees, end of bulk billing, job insecurity, has really dampened discretionary spending.
And IPA, it has noting to do with the minimum wage! If people are not buying, you cannot even pay $1 per hour for staff, and if you do, who would they serve!!!
[Bridget O’Flynn @BridgetOFlynn 17s18 seconds ago
Chris Kenny: I can tell you that tomorrow’s #Newspoll brings very very bad news for Tony Abbott.
#Viewpoint #Libspiil]
Matt@881
A rod the ABC has largely made for its own back by rolling over and not publically challenging the claims made against them by the tories.
Tonight, factually they failed to cover the how and why of this situation.
Basic.
“back to school, credit card bills from the Christmas * and holiday spending*”
I seem to remember that when Labor had its leadership woes the ABC had a running commentary from Liberal Party figures. Haven’t see any Labor people asked to comment yet on Tony’s trials. Is Labor keeping out of it, or is the ABC keeping Labor out of it?
[874
ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, February 8, 2015 at 7:58 pm | PERMALINK
I think the spill motion will fail tomorrow. Abbott will spend a month swinging in the breeze before Turnbull is drafted to take over in about 1 month.
]
The problem with this scenario (at least for the Libs) is that there is the NSW state election in March and then the budget in May.
Of course if you are thinking of surviving day to day, you might not think of this
I can’t believe I’m saying this but I hope Abbott gets a decent set of numbers in the Newspoll. We want him to go to an election which will give labor a winning chance.
Sohar – Labor MPs not saying a single word, Shorten has made one comment in 3 days. Smart move.
How utterly tantalising.
Newspoll “very, very bad” for Abbott. And this judgment from someone other than PVO – Chris Kenny being far more inclined to spin it in Abbott’s if that were humanly possible; if there just a glimmer of something hopeful in there somewhere. Obviously there ain’t.
On the hand, Abbott does seem to have engendered an “over the top boys” into the hail of Turkish machine gunfire spirit among many of his troops. Fascinating really the way he has used mantras “we are not Labor” etc in much the same way as he did in Opposition. He’s dogged if nothing else.