Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research proves very unlike Morgan in showing a slight improvement of the Coalition vote, but opinions on the future of the Liberal leadership and the result of the next election would wipe any smile off Tony Abbott’s face.

Essential Research bucks the trend a little in ticking back a point to the Coalition, with Labor’s lead now at 52-48. The Coalition gains a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting the parties at 40% and 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United steady at 10% and 2%. However, the fun for Tony Abbott ends there, as the poll turns in the remarkable findings that only 29% think him likely to be Liberal leader at the next election versus 51% for unlikely, and that 46% consider Labor to win the election versus 27% for the Coalition. Forty-seven per cent think Bill Shorten likely to remain as leader against only 20% who don’t. Further questions relate to climate change, a semi-regular question finding 57% (up one since September) relating it to human activity and 29% (down one) expressing skepticism, and fully 51% saying they are more concerned than they were two years ago against 9% for less concerned. Twenty-six per cent think Australia is doing enough versus 51% not enough, but opinion is even more negative about the responses of the United States and China.

Roy Morgan has turned in an eye-opener with its final poll of the year, recording a blowout in the Labor lead to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (53.5-46.5 last time) and 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences (53-47). On the primary vote, Labor is up 3.5% to 41%, the Coalition is down 4% to 35%, the Greens are down 0.5% to 11.5% and Palmer United is steady on 2%. This is not in fact the worst result for the term recorded by the Coalition, having been surpassed by the poll of June 7/8. However, that was a single weekly result rather the a combined fortnightly one in Morgan’s usual fashion. If combined with the poll of the following week, the result comes out as comparable with this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,023 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. DF
    You disgusting little creep.
    [
    Here’s the Silence Without: Bringing You the Views of Tessadom blog of of a Tessa Kum of Melbourne. (Perhaps she’s not the same Tessa Kum? But could there really be two? Here’s the Twitter account of Tessa Kum.) Here are excerpts from a November post by Tessa Kum. (I’ll add bolding for one word.)
    ]

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/the-media-heroine-of-the-australian-counterbacklash-has-some-issues/

  2. On reading the article at The Unz Review, halfway down I come across this:

    [“Here’s the Silence Without: Bringing You the Views of Tessadom blog of of a Tessa Kum of Melbourne. (Perhaps she’s not the same Tessa Kum? But could there really be two? Here’s the Twitter account of Tessa Kum.) ..” ]

    Kum is not an uncommon name, nor is Tessa. Given that the excerpt was taken from a 9000 word posting Melbourne Tessa Kum made on racism in Sci Fi (and Isaac Asimov has some interesting comments on this), Melbourne Tessa is most likely the short story Sci Fi author you can find on Goodreads, and may well be a different person to Sydney Tessa.

    I think it is important to find out if they really are the same people before jumping to conclusions.

  3. You can see it for yourself Steve.

    You don’t think she’s discredited herself? She’s someone who wants to stop ‘racism’ while espousing racism herself?

  4. [If the PM’s befuddled as to whether Monis had a gun licence or not – we need an inquiry into his office and national security. #auspol]
    It should be a royal commission with powers to subpoena Abbott and ask him why he is incompetent.

  5. Is that a classic case of strawmen?

    Nevermind if it was the person or not, she merely came up with the hashtag.

    The fact that many have came in support to the entire meme of keeping unity after the fact of the disaster shows that Australia as a society gain by being united than divided.

    I don’t believe the intention was to wipe the memory of the victim and a distraction. One can appreciate both.

  6. There was a rightwing nutjob in the United States who got into trouble for his video editing to make people appear to say the opposite to what they actually said.

    I would think it would be far easier with text.

    That said even if its true. This is one person out of hundreds of thousands in Australia. A very think reed to hang an argument on indeed.

  7. What is critical is that at the moment we still don’t know exactly the full basis the magistrate that released Monis on bail made their decision on. There are no transcripts that are available from his cases, although Guardian Australia has lodged requests for each of the bail hearings and the magistrate’s reasoning.

    While it has been suggested that the new bail laws would have led to a different outcome for Monis’s bail application, it is virtually impossible at the moment to make an informed assessment about the strength of the bail applications until we see those documents.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/17/would-the-new-bail-laws-have-prevented-the-sydney-siege

  8. Ok, after another 30 seconds research, it does look as though Sci Fi writer Tessa and hashtag Tessa are the same people (Silence Without., although I do think her words were hyperbole for her Blog as a budding author rather than anything more sinister.

  9. William,

    Your insights are interesting here. Because of all of us here posting you are the only person to convert a vague idea/concept in to an iconoclastic web site of significant importance

  10. DF, you are a obviously a terminally stupid and odious piece diseased liberal voter excrement. Do you ever wonder if you actually exist for some other purpose than attracting the derision of others??

    [ I fully accept that she hates me and probably most poll bludgers because of race. What a sanctamonious hypocrite! ]

    Try reading some of her stuff on her blog site. If she has a few issues and has expressed herself in robust fashion, so what? It actually doesn’t really impact on the significance of the #illridewithyou hashtag. Being out in the wild it has a meaning and “life” of quite worthy stature all of its own regardless of what the person who created it may have said or thought in the past. She has created something of worth and deserves some credit for that.

    What is it with the RWNJ set that they will take just about ANY excuse to hang onto their petty little hates?? Sad little angry people with a sense of entitlement they feel is under threat maybe?

  11. 904
    ShowsOn
    Posted Wednesday, December 17, 2014 at 9:39 pm | PERMALINK
    [If the PM’s befuddled as to whether Monis had a gun licence or not – we need an inquiry into his office and national security. #auspol

    It should be a royal commission with powers to subpoena Abbott and ask him why he is incompetent.]

    I am all for it

  12. William, this is definitely in the category of “Who Cares”. Of course the fact that I will now have to listen to my RWNJ friends tell me that #illridewithyou is really a Muslim plot to blind us to the enemy within and so on… makes it necessary for me to arm myself with the facts.

  13. Who started the Twitter #illridewithyou is irrelevant. The fact is that it immediately caught people’s attention and spread like wildfire in Australia and across the world. It has been mentioned favourably in the MSM here and overseas. There was even an article in the Telegraph (online at least – I don’t read the paper edition).

  14. I read a lot of it, and that is totally out of context, she talks about her inner struggles including overcoming anger and hate as a person of colour PoC as she calls herself brought up as a middle class white, and being white inside etc etc. Just taking any bit out of the 9,000 words to say, “she espouses hate” to create a strawman argument is very weak. But rightwing trolls are weak.

  15. Desert Fox – I’m surprised you’re objecting to Tessa’s supposed racism, after all your heroes Brandis and Abbott have both defended the right to be a bigot. But I guess in your worldview that right only applies if you’re white.

  16. I commented earlier that both ends of the political spectrum are struggling to fit the Martin Place siege into their respective political narratives. You see it on the right, where #illridewithyou is angrily dismissed, as is any suggestion that the gunman was more criminal nut job than terrorist. And you see it on the left, where any hint of vindication for those who believe muslim refugees are potentially dangerous is also angrily dismissed, as is any suggestion that Tessa Kum may have another agenda.

  17. I’ll second Greensborough Growler’s sentiment… #illridewithyou Desert Fox when you get scared of people of colour on our public transport

  18. [ABC journalists were in tears on Wednesday afternoon after being told their positions could become redundant.

    Close to a third of more than 300 ABC staff in pools with similarly skilled colleagues were expected to learn their possible fate by 5pm.]

    Part of me does not feel sorry for anyone working at a television network that broadcast At Home With Julia and which employs Chris Uhlmann.

  19. Puff,

    [I read a lot of it, and that is totally out of context, she talks about her inner struggles including overcoming anger and hate as a person of colour PoC as she calls herself brought up as a middle class white, and being white inside etc etc. Just taking any bit out of the 9,000 words to say, “she espouses hate” to create a strawman argument is very weak. But rightwing trolls are weak.]

    I’ve read a lot of what Tessa Kum has written and I think you’re probably right, in the sense that a few regrettable statements shouldn’t negate all of the other interesting and honest things that she has to say.

  20. William

    for what it is worth, offering the view “who cares” got me into a lot of trouble when I was younger.
    My bosses found it insightful, giving them a clue to my attitude to most things.

  21. Jake: It seems to me that “angry dismissal” is the current order of the day in Australian politics, in a far wider context than this issue and stretching back several years.

  22. [And you see it on the left, where any hint of vindication for those who believe muslim refugees are potentially dangerous is also angrily dismissed]

    Although we’re seeing that less and less these days, to be fair.

  23. Jake – what on Earth is “regrettable” about what Tessa Kum said? She’s some Joe Bloggs exercising her bloody right to say what she thinks. I would think if Pauline Hanson, George Christensen and Andrew Bolt get to say what filthy things they say about non-White people, then she should bloody get to say what she wants. For Christ’s sake it’s not like she’s gone around physically assaulting white people, unlike those scumbags that went attacking Muslim women, because some nutter who belonged in a mental ward, and who happened to Muslim, committed an horrific crime. I mean, Anders Breivik did the same bloody thing in Norway, except he killed 77 people and he was an actual f*cking terrorist with specific political aims.

  24. “@BernardKeane: .@GChristensenMP hey big fella I notice your website still suggests there are no women in your electorate. must make life tough for blokes?”

  25. caf,

    [Jake: It seems to me that “angry dismissal” is the current order of the day in Australian politics, in a far wider context than this issue and stretching back several years.]

    Yep. I do it myself, quite a bit. It’s boneheaded and unhelpful.

  26. Fess,

    [Although we’re seeing that less and less these days, to be fair.]

    True.

    Jimmy Doyle,

    You’ve covered a lot there, all of which I pretty much agree with. The stuff that Tessa Kum said that’s regrettable is the same kind of stuff I said when I was her age and seething with anger at the world. In her case, vague references to hating white people – which I doubt she actually does.

  27. On a completely different note…hopefully, dtt will be among the relieved…

    http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/

    [There have been 17 942 reported cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD), with 6388 reported deaths.

    · Case incidence is slightly increasing in Guinea, decreasing in Liberia, and may be increasing or stable in Sierra Leone.

    · Sierra Leone now has the highest total number of reported cases of the three intense-transmission countries, with 7897 cases reported to date.

    · At a national level, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone have sufficient capacity to isolate and treat all reported EVD cases, and bury all EVD-related deaths safely and with dignity. However, local variations mean capacity is still insufficient in some areas.]

  28. I have followed a few links and looked on Google and it does appear that Tessa Kum (not Kun) wrote the words quoted. There’s a lot to plough through but it Ms Kum seems to be building on her experience as a ‘Woman of Colour’ and how those in the dominant group do not appreciate what she has to go through. So, not bullshit, but I get the impression that it’s more an essay in creative writing or venting frustration rather than racism. I admit that I would need to do more reading to make a definitive call. In any case there is nothing regarding the #Illridewithyou to suggest that it is motivated by anything other than a concern to protect the Muslim community from attacks by the ignorant, stupid and bigoted.

    I still question the agenda of those who appear to be setting out to discredit this campaign. Are you saying that Muslims should be blamed for the attack? That it is OK for people to take out their anger on the innocent? That we should treat law-abiding Muslims as second class citizens and terrorists? It’s a serious question. In the wake of 9/11, a number of Muslims were attacked in the street in the USA and a Sikh, who was mistaken for a Muslim because he wore a turban, was killed.

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