Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research proves very unlike Morgan in showing a slight improvement of the Coalition vote, but opinions on the future of the Liberal leadership and the result of the next election would wipe any smile off Tony Abbott’s face.

Essential Research bucks the trend a little in ticking back a point to the Coalition, with Labor’s lead now at 52-48. The Coalition gains a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting the parties at 40% and 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United steady at 10% and 2%. However, the fun for Tony Abbott ends there, as the poll turns in the remarkable findings that only 29% think him likely to be Liberal leader at the next election versus 51% for unlikely, and that 46% consider Labor to win the election versus 27% for the Coalition. Forty-seven per cent think Bill Shorten likely to remain as leader against only 20% who don’t. Further questions relate to climate change, a semi-regular question finding 57% (up one since September) relating it to human activity and 29% (down one) expressing skepticism, and fully 51% saying they are more concerned than they were two years ago against 9% for less concerned. Twenty-six per cent think Australia is doing enough versus 51% not enough, but opinion is even more negative about the responses of the United States and China.

Roy Morgan has turned in an eye-opener with its final poll of the year, recording a blowout in the Labor lead to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (53.5-46.5 last time) and 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences (53-47). On the primary vote, Labor is up 3.5% to 41%, the Coalition is down 4% to 35%, the Greens are down 0.5% to 11.5% and Palmer United is steady on 2%. This is not in fact the worst result for the term recorded by the Coalition, having been surpassed by the poll of June 7/8. However, that was a single weekly result rather the a combined fortnightly one in Morgan’s usual fashion. If combined with the poll of the following week, the result comes out as comparable with this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,023 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [As someone mentioned, on social media, if Channel 7 could get a clear headshot of the bloke, why didn’t a “specialist security person” just take him out? This was an hour or so into the siege.]

    That early in the piece was it known with certainty that there was just one villain in the shop? If not then taking a shot at him would have been reckless in the extreme.

  2. Too many people watching Bond/Arne/Bruce Willis action movies and getting reality confused with the fantasy of a movie.

    The shot would have been through glass, this could cause the bullet to deflect. Using a heaving bullet to “prevent” deflection would possibly passed through the hostage taker.

    Given that no-one knew what was in the backpack that could have caused an explosion, or killed a hostage.

    I spent 32 years working in prisons and over 17 years training and studying for all type of incidents that occur in prisons, including hostage taking.

    After every incident the reviews were carried out by armchair experts with hindsight as a ‘tool’. Very little of any use came from the reviews by these “drips under pressure”.

    the best reviews were our own team reviews

  3. [46% consider Labor to win the election versus 27% for the Coalition.]

    That’s pretty remarkable given they are a first term govt having only just finished its full first year in office.

  4. WB

    [ opinions on the future of the Liberal leadership and the result of the next election would wipe any smile off Tony Abbott’s face.]

    I’m feeling so sorry for him – not.

    😀

  5. [ACT Policing ‏@ACTPolicing 14m14 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Package found at DFAT deemed non-suspicious. More info to come #DFATevac]

    Good to know.

  6. [ That early in the piece was it known with certainty that there was just one villain in the shop? If not then taking a shot at him would have been reckless in the extreme. ]
    Plastering the shot all over the news was a good way of showing the gunman where he shouldn’t place himself

  7. Going by quiz’s logic, given that logically the most likely outcome of the DFAT package incident is that it was innocuous, we should ignore the advice of those appropriately trained and carry on with business as usual.

  8. [ACT Policing ‏@ACTPolicing 14m14 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Package found at DFAT deemed non-suspicious. More info to come #DFATevac

    Good to know.]

    Probably Christmas cake.

  9. ‘fess

    [Package found at DFAT deemed non-suspicious.]

    I remember in the late 70’s / early 80’s we were always getting the guys from Duntroon blow up ‘suspicious packages’.

    The bomb detectors that the C’wlth bought for Registries were notoriously useless.

    Mostly the suspicious briefcases contained a Canberra Times and two Vegemite and Cheese sandwiches.

  10. Itep

    [ACT Policing ‏@ACTPolicing 14m14 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Package found at DFAT deemed non-suspicious. More info to come #DFATevac]

    Reckless ramping of terrorist threats does none of us any good.

    The poor hostages were forced to make social media tapes. Do you think our esteemed security weren’t onto that?

    Do you think Tony Abbott didn’t know about it?

    Yet Action Man couldn’t even make a decision for himself. What leadership? Military? Security?

    Who the fuck’s in charge here?

  11. Sky Media comparing this hostage taking to what happened in Canada and describing it as a terrorist act.

    My memory is that the guy in Canadia was a mentally ill person with no connections to terrorism, despite the spin of the media

  12. kezza

    [Yet Action Man couldn’t even make a decision for himself. What leadership? Military? Security?]

    But he wanted to use the ‘boat phone’.

  13. I also want to see Abbott’s role in jailing Hanson properly investigated

    Lots of grist for a future bunch of RCs in the next term. What is the collexctive term for a group of Royal Commissions?

  14. Is anyone else puzzled why there is no information being released on whether the hostages killed or wounded were shot by the gunman or ‘caught in crossfire’?

    The gunman had a shotgun whereas police had pistols and sub-machine guns, both of which would create a wound quite unlike that from a shotgun.

    It should be a matter that is cleared up as soon as possible.

  15. [Oh gawd just what we all need Pauline Hanson running for the seat of Lockyer at the next Queensland election.]

    She is a serial election campaigner yet is never elected. Why on earth can’t she just move to the UK like she promised all those years ago.

  16. MTBW

    [Oh gawd just what we all need Pauline Hanson running for the seat of Lockyer at the next Queensland election.]

    This could prove enormous fun for the LNP, who currently hold the seat. Katter’s party polled well at the last election (much higher than Labor). Hanson might be in with a chance.

  17. No need for a bunch of Royal Commissions. Shorten just needs to get on the front foot and announce that he will establish a Federal ICAC with similar powers to the NSW one. Set it up with the freedom to investigate back say 30 years so that no claims of political witch hunting can stick.

    And then direct it to look into a few things. Like maybe where Andrew Bolt got the top secret stuff if not from Dolly, and like what the government really knew about the AWB kick backs to Saddam, and like what Tones really was up to with ‘Australian’s for Honest Politics’.

  18. I’m sure this has been explained before, but why does the Essential poll always seem to have a lower figure than the others? When I say ‘lower’ I mean the ALP takes a longer time to show up better than the other polls.

  19. [bemused
    Posted Tuesday, December 16, 2014 at 4:30 pm | PERMALINK
    Is anyone else puzzled why there is no information being released on whether the hostages killed or wounded were shot by the gunman or ‘caught in crossfire’?

    The gunman had a shotgun whereas police had pistols and sub-machine guns, both of which would create a wound quite unlike that from a shotgun.

    It should be a matter that is cleared up as soon as possible.]

    Hey, whaddya reckon’s going on there? Trubble at ballistics?

  20. kezza2@25

    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, December 16, 2014 at 4:30 pm | PERMALINK
    Is anyone else puzzled why there is no information being released on whether the hostages killed or wounded were shot by the gunman or ‘caught in crossfire’?

    The gunman had a shotgun whereas police had pistols and sub-machine guns, both of which would create a wound quite unlike that from a shotgun.

    It should be a matter that is cleared up as soon as possible.


    Hey, whaddya reckon’s going on there? Trubble at ballistics?

    I would have thought it would have been immediately fairly obvious and not need ballistics.

    The longer the silence, the more my suspicion grows that much of the carnage was caused by police bullets.

    I hope not.

  21. The phone call from Abbott:

    “Margie?”

    “Yes, dear.”

    “Margie, Margie, is that you?”

    “Yes, dear.”

    “Why are you calling me “dear”?”

    “Yes, dear.”

    “You’re scaring me.”

    “Yes, dear.”

    Silence, then from Margie:

    “What the fuck do you want, dear?”

    “Oh, that’s better.”

    “Don’t you remember you told me to say, “yes dear”, if you rang in an emergency?”

    “Did I?”

    “Yes, dear.”

    Tony forgot to do the ironing.

  22. Is anyone else puzzled why there is no information being released on whether the hostages killed or wounded were shot by the gunman or ‘caught in crossfire’?

    Not puzzled as that will be the subject of Police Internal Investigation and the Coroner.

  23. Good to see that our new Shooters and Fishers representative in Victoria is off to a glorious start, saying that the siege shows that our gun laws don’t work. He also added that semi-automatic weapons shouldn’t be totally banned!

    I would say that the perpetrator could have done a lot more damage with a military-style semi-automatic rifle than he did with a sawn-off shotgun.

  24. AA 29 – I am a great believer in expert advice. There is nothing worse than “after the event: second guessing by amateurs. It’s like asking Viscount Monckton for his scientific opinion on climate change.

  25. boomy1,

    Essential seems to be oscillating on it’s rounding. By their sluggish and minimal movements I would suggest this poll is a rogue.

    “Division is Death” is a political cliché for a reason, and the prevailing story last week was LNP division. The only explanation for poll to move toward the LNP after the last week is a problem with the sample.

  26. [Good to see that our new Shooters and Fishers representative in Victoria is off to a glorious start, saying that the siege shows that our gun laws don’t work.]

    I really hope this isn’t a sign of things to come on the policy advocacy front.

  27. BK 39

    He was talking with Margie today while laying a wreath. Perhaps she gave him a quick slap on the back of the head to hit the reset button

  28. fess

    [I really hope this isn’t a sign of things to come on the policy advocacy front.]

    Are you kidding? Abbott wreck Pope John Howard’s legacy? I don’t think so. He wouldn’t be game.

  29. As a person who has been involved in incidents that the media make unsubstantiated claims/so-called “expert comment and then people without any first hand knowledge getting their “15mins” it is frustrating.

    Unable to make comment to tell the facts or dispute the so-called expert opinion is more stressful than the incident itself. Bound by law unable to comment.

    I’ve seen more staff fall by the wayside with PTSD and other issues that are exasperated by these uninformed comments

  30. kezza:

    Abbott is a weak leader, prone to caving in and changing his mind on even things he declares himself to have been rock solid on.

  31. [“@MichaelWestBiz: Multinational tax back-down happening by government now under media cover of #sydneysiege. more soon”]

    Keep us up to date but ‘no big surprise’ would be my response.

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