Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research proves very unlike Morgan in showing a slight improvement of the Coalition vote, but opinions on the future of the Liberal leadership and the result of the next election would wipe any smile off Tony Abbott’s face.

Essential Research bucks the trend a little in ticking back a point to the Coalition, with Labor’s lead now at 52-48. The Coalition gains a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting the parties at 40% and 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United steady at 10% and 2%. However, the fun for Tony Abbott ends there, as the poll turns in the remarkable findings that only 29% think him likely to be Liberal leader at the next election versus 51% for unlikely, and that 46% consider Labor to win the election versus 27% for the Coalition. Forty-seven per cent think Bill Shorten likely to remain as leader against only 20% who don’t. Further questions relate to climate change, a semi-regular question finding 57% (up one since September) relating it to human activity and 29% (down one) expressing skepticism, and fully 51% saying they are more concerned than they were two years ago against 9% for less concerned. Twenty-six per cent think Australia is doing enough versus 51% not enough, but opinion is even more negative about the responses of the United States and China.

Roy Morgan has turned in an eye-opener with its final poll of the year, recording a blowout in the Labor lead to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (53.5-46.5 last time) and 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences (53-47). On the primary vote, Labor is up 3.5% to 41%, the Coalition is down 4% to 35%, the Greens are down 0.5% to 11.5% and Palmer United is steady on 2%. This is not in fact the worst result for the term recorded by the Coalition, having been surpassed by the poll of June 7/8. However, that was a single weekly result rather the a combined fortnightly one in Morgan’s usual fashion. If combined with the poll of the following week, the result comes out as comparable with this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,023 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 18 of 21
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  1. What a charmer Tessa Kun is, creator of the divertattentionfromislamicterror, sorry, ridewithyou hashtag.

    “I’m learning about hate because I am coming to hate you, white person. You have all the control, all the power, all the privilege, and there is nothing holding you accountable. I hate the double standards and hypocrisy you display, the rank dishonesty of your conduct. I hate that you can harm us, when we cannot harm you.”

    I fully accept that she hates me and probably most poll bludgers because of race. What a sanctamonious hypocrite!

  2. [The Geek
    Terrorist link not working as well, so Abbott is going the failed refugee programme / multiculturalism angle. Under Howard nevertheless.]

  4. Nicholas #850

    Apparently one of his bail conditions was to report to the Police daily.

    That daily contact did not identify that he was planning this

  5. Nicholas

    That’s all very well, and I don’t disagree, but when the agenda is driven by the Murdoch press and the likes Of Hadley, the judiciary is always going to cop it.

    I read somewhere that a Daily Mail editor (not sure who) once said the object of his newspaper was to make people angry about something every day.

    It works for them and sections of the media here follow the same principle, pandering to a minority who just love to hate.

  8. I gather under the new bail laws he would not have been given bail.

    His wife was charged with murder and is still on bail. That’s more surprising.

  9. Nicholas

    and another thing: preventative detention is routine for asylum seekers.

    Its kinda funny that people accused of serious crimes can get bail while they wait for they day in court but people claiming to be refugees are locked up and may never have their day in court

  12. Re Rossmcg @855: I’ve often had the thought that people with an authoritarian, far right outlook enjoy being angry. Now anger is one of my least favorite emotions. It disrupts sleep, pays havoc with digestion and can impair one’s ability to get on with work and life. But some people seem to find it empowering, makes them want to go out and, as our American friends would say, kick someone’s ass. It must be related to their need to have someone to look down on, be it foreigners, non whites, non Christians or ‘dole bludgers’.

  17. Steve777
    It is also related to them needing someone to stand over them. They like to have a dominating figure to tell them how to think and for them to please.

  19. The messages on the cards pinned to the flowers which are slowly cascading westwards down Martin Place, such as can be viewed while walking quickly in a horseshoe motion,are full of hope, sadness and prayer save ones apologising which appear to authored by persons with Muslim sounding names.

    One posy is from Iranian representatives.

  21. Presumably Peta gave the AFP commissioner a roasting over the wrong gun advice. So now she and Abbott are at loggerheads with the AFP and maybe ASIO, various Ministers, the Public Service, most of the Australian people and sundry overseas leaders. Not a bad effort in just over a year.

    There is of course no need for Abbott to be talking about details of the past life of the gunman at this stage, except for his obvious political motives. Publicly humiliating the AFP for providing incorrect advice could well backfire on Abbott.

  23. AA

    [Of course Abbott is pushing the “terrorist ” act line.

    It suits the right wing attack on freedoms to have this as a terrorist act.

    Going to be embarrassing in the world media when the review finds he was a deluded narcissistic violent madman who was delusional about his status as a martyr ]

    Of course, if people pick up that it’s a mental health issue and not a terrorism issue, they’ll be asking why the money going the wrong way.

  25. [787
    AussieAchmed

    Going to be embarrassing in the world media when the review finds he was a deluded narcissistic violent madman who was delusional about his status as a martyr]

    Monis or Abbott?

  32. A not-a-poll has also been added to the sidebar of my site so people can predict when (if ever) this government will recapture the 2PP polling lead.

  33. Kevin,

    Signs are certainly there that the anti Government feeling is now entrenched. You could say that the Government cock ups before Xmas last year were just a sign of displeasure. The fact that it remains 12 months on says the feeling is turning to disappointment.

    At some stage the Coalition need a circuit breaker to turn things around.

    If the margins still there at the end of 2015 then One Term Tony might be the reality.

  34. AA@849,

    AFAIK there is no significant problem in the UK either which does not have (indeed couldn’t practically have) such a rule. Nor does it appear that the few reported cases of CJD there were the beginnings of a bell curve as was once feared.

    Quite apart from the case of us Poms, though, when you read the list of who can’t give blood, it appears that there can’t be more than about 50 eligible donors nationwide. They must be getting awfully shrivelled by now ;).

  36. Some good news finally from the UK

    [Rupert Murdoch’s British newspaper and publishing division suffered an operating loss of £3.5m in the year up to June 2014 compared to a £51m profit the year before.

    The loss by News Corp UK & Ireland, which owns the Times, Sunday Times, the Sun and the book publisher HarperCollins, is revealed in accounts filed by the company, without fanfare, at Companies House. ]

    and the auditors qualify the books…

    [And the report carries an auditor’s note which stresses that “significant uncertainty” remains about the future costs relating to phone-hacking cases and the on-going cases involving “inappropriate payments to public officials”. The company’s “ultimate exposure” is impossible to gauge, it suggests.]

  37. rossmcg@841

    Dio

    Yep, it’s what they do at the blood bank to collect the plasma (the yellow stuff).

    And that’s a chance to urge any lapsed or irregular blood donors out there see if they can get along over the next few weeks. Might be the best Christmas gift you can give.

    Keep your head down, last time mentioned having given a blood donation ‘Bullshit Bill’ went bonkers.

    I am not due till February but I generally do them every 3 months.

    Also done a lot of plasma donations and something even more exotic, ‘double red cell’ where they take the red cells and return the plasma. But they stopped doing those.

  39. Puffy@865 and GG@870

    If George Christensen is tweeting this stuff, it is almost certainly untrue, and part of a disinformation campaign to derail the peaceful response of many Australians to the siege. It would be good to get that comment deleted if no attribution is forthcoming.

  41. The fact we have had royal commissions into unions and insulation, but are not going to have a royal commission into the Sydney siege is Abbott’s first mistake in handling this issue.

    Well his first mistake if you ignore the fact he thought the guy had a gun license.

  42. Douglas and Milko,
    Yes, that is my thought, and trolls like DF seed it in reputable blogs like PB on Crikey so it can gain currency and then be linked back here.

    Bilbo, are you sure DF has not tripped over your welcome mat?

  43. ruawake@847

    Thanks to all the blood donors, I have received 13 bags of packed red cells in the last 9 weeks.

    Thanks ru, I appreciate the encouragement but I have haemachromatosis so have to get rid of some red cells every 3 months to reduce my iron stores. The ARCBS wouldn’t allow me to donate when I was first diagnosed but now do accept donations from people with this syndrome.

    But a lot still just have the blood removed and discarded. Crazy, it would just about sort out the blood shortage if it was all donated to Red Cross, less what is required for research.

  46. Re DF @851: that quote appears on a number of what appear to be far right blogs, which claim to have found it on Tessa Kum’s blog. Assuming that the quote actually exists in such a blog, I think that there is a good chance that she has been quoted out of context. Until I see a credible source for the quote I’m calling bullshit (urban myth).

    It is interesting to see how right wing bloggers have apparently done some searching through the blogosphere in an effort to discredit a project intended to alleviate any backlash that Muslums may be receiving as a results of Monday’s atrocity. Rather like climate deniers trawling through 8,000 page IPCC reports looking for typos because the’re too lazy, stupid or lacking in any supporting evidence to argue their case (whatever that may be in this instance).

  47. I have a sneaking suspicion Kun will not be suing Bolt for defamation.
    What a prize that would be for someone like her?

    There is no sign of her disowning it.

  48. On twitter

    [If the PM’s befuddled as to whether Monis had a gun licence or not – we need an inquiry into his office and national security. #auspol]

  50. [Margo Kingston ‏@margokingston1 3m3 minutes ago
    Never report anything Abbott says as fact before you fact check. I learned that a long time ago. Say ‘PM claimed…’ ping @channeltennews]

    Seems a good lesson for other journalists.

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