Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research proves very unlike Morgan in showing a slight improvement of the Coalition vote, but opinions on the future of the Liberal leadership and the result of the next election would wipe any smile off Tony Abbott’s face.

Essential Research bucks the trend a little in ticking back a point to the Coalition, with Labor’s lead now at 52-48. The Coalition gains a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting the parties at 40% and 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United steady at 10% and 2%. However, the fun for Tony Abbott ends there, as the poll turns in the remarkable findings that only 29% think him likely to be Liberal leader at the next election versus 51% for unlikely, and that 46% consider Labor to win the election versus 27% for the Coalition. Forty-seven per cent think Bill Shorten likely to remain as leader against only 20% who don’t. Further questions relate to climate change, a semi-regular question finding 57% (up one since September) relating it to human activity and 29% (down one) expressing skepticism, and fully 51% saying they are more concerned than they were two years ago against 9% for less concerned. Twenty-six per cent think Australia is doing enough versus 51% not enough, but opinion is even more negative about the responses of the United States and China.

Roy Morgan has turned in an eye-opener with its final poll of the year, recording a blowout in the Labor lead to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (53.5-46.5 last time) and 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences (53-47). On the primary vote, Labor is up 3.5% to 41%, the Coalition is down 4% to 35%, the Greens are down 0.5% to 11.5% and Palmer United is steady on 2%. This is not in fact the worst result for the term recorded by the Coalition, having been surpassed by the poll of June 7/8. However, that was a single weekly result rather the a combined fortnightly one in Morgan’s usual fashion. If combined with the poll of the following week, the result comes out as comparable with this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,023 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [We should give these police on the pointy end more than “A job wel”]

    I’m sure we will if the appropriate reviews show they did a good job.

  2. Poroti

    [Good timing . A minute or so after I read that some police type was calling for way more ability to monitor people on line, everyone online.]

    Given they actually dropped him off the watch list and only needed to read the front page of the paper to monitor him, the calls for extra powers are pretty spurious.

  3. it’s the vibe …

    I caught some of Hadlee this morning, accidentally as I wandered into our school kitchens and the kitchen assistant had him on. He was saying he was sick to his stomach about something. Oddly on the last occasion I had walked in there — about six weeks ago — he was sick to his stomach then too. I am wondering what 2GB is thinking having an employee whose work continually makes him ill continue in his job. Shouldn’t he be on light duties? Shouldn’t he have some sort of therapy?

    Perhaps he could take up knitting, given his love of tabloid justice. 😉

    Usage note: the word ‘mob’ is an aphetic for the Latin mobile vulgus ‘the fickle commoners’. Oddly the remaining morpheme (mob) is the fickle part rather than the commoners part.

    [and the kitchen assistant had him on.]

  4. pom #797

    While not privy to the routines of the NSW Police I can comment that we ensured our guys were rotated regularly, provided with light meals and plenty of water in a place a suitable distance from the incident. Good rest periods.

    We would keep them away from the media and didn’t allow them to watch the news services. They didn’t need to see the poor reporting and be “upset” or angry about poor media.

    Psychologists on scene and even the service Chaplain.

    Yes, those guys do need to be thanked. To stand there at the ready for extended periods takes a lot out of people. The boredom but at the same time knowing you will need to react quickly, as these guys did. They were magnificent.

    I hope that they are not spending too much time ‘second guessing’. Leave that to the arm chair “experts”.

  5. Digging in.

    [Eliza Borrello ‏@ElizaBorrello 3m3 minutes ago
    Re whether Monis had a gun licence @TonyAbbottMHR ‘s office says he was told the National Police Reference System indicated he had had one.]

  6. Matthew

    [It’s not really apehtic, though, is it? Otherwise, they’d call mobs ‘biles’.]

    You’re almost correct.. The usual definition relates to the initial unstressed vowel. E.g. The a from acute to form cute. Dropping a whole syllable from the front is apheresis.

    I was still wrong anyway though. I should have said it was a clipped phrase. Thanks for pointing this out though. That was careless of me.

  7. Diogenes@782

    bemused

    It is technically possible to get a license for a sawn off shotgun but you have to get permission from the Commissioner of Police.

    It’s probably only allowed for law enforcement training and customs detection training purposes.

    Such weapons would be owned by the law enforcement agency, defence force etc and would not be licenced to individuals.

    Try again!

  8. In short, Abbott’s office is blaming the officials for mis-briefing him.

    Again, as I said before, he went early with his announcement and is now paying the price for that.

  9. [Samantha Maiden ‏@samanthamaiden 2m2 minutes ago
    Tough for PM if advice from AFP wrong. This is why Howard always added “I am advised” by the AFP in this instance]

  10. [Why is the question of whether or not Mr Monis was reveiving welfare relevant?]

    Because Centrelink offices are Australia’s madrassas. They are a breeding ground for terrorists.

  11. confessions #800
    Peter Fox ‏@Peter_Fox59 7m7 minutes ago Newcastle, New South Wales
    Former Catholic Brother Bernard McGrath to face more than 250 child sex charges in the Hunter

    Why wasn’t he on a watch list?

  12. Fran,

    [I caught some of Hadlie this morning, accidentally as I wandered into our school kitchens and the kitchen assistant had him on. He was saying he was sick to his stomach about something. Oddly on the last occasion I had walked in there — about six weeks ago — he was sick to his stomach then too.]

    Maybe he gets his lunch from there and your kitchen assistant has been lacing his tucker.

  13. [@bkjabour: Prime Minister Abbott’s statement on how he came to mistakenly say the #sydneysiege gunman had a NSW gun licence http://t.co/2x7IzcvCYd%5D

    The Lying Friar’s problem is that he believes everything his told.

    His mentor, the Lying Rodent, would have said “I am advised that…..”

    And he wouldn’t grandstand.

  14. Fran,

    [You’re almost correct.. The usual definition relates to the initial unstressed vowel. E.g. The a from acute to form cute. Dropping a whole syllable from the front is apheresis. ]

    You’re almost correct, too. The standard definition relates to the disappearance of an unstressed initial vowel or syllable.

    Aphaeresis is the omission of a letter or phoneme or unstressed syllable from the beginning of the word. At least, it is in Australian and British English. In the US, where they call it ‘apheresis’, it may have a different usage.

  15. Sam maiden was also being apologetic with DSpeers on Sky agenda this afternoon. Wtte that how can intelligence be expected to have this man under surveillance due to how much resources would be required etc.

    Well i would have thought that the 600 million given by the govt for such matters could have no doubt helped considerably.

  16. [The Lying Friar’s problem is that he believes everything his told.]

    His real problem is trying to milk this for all it’s worth by appearing as some kind of all knowing, all seeing force of goodness.

    It appears to me he and his office went lone wolf on this by announcing his review early, and not clearing the intel he’d been given with NSW Police.

    A simple check with NSW Police would’ve cleared this matter up and prevented the embarrassment he now finds himself in. He can blame officials all he likes, but he and his office chose to go public with this. Presumably in order to milk it for political gain.

  17. AFP Commissioner is investigating how the PM came to be briefed that Manos had a gun licence in NSW when he didn’t.

    Far more important to find out who caused the PM to embarrass himself than to get the siege review started.

    The real priorities of Government are on show

  18. Sam Maiden is the sensible face of the otherwise sewer-dwelling Daily TellMeCrap.

    She gets a regular drop from Credo for her Sunday column. It’s times like this that the payola is called in.

  19. Matthew

    [Aphaeresis is the omission of a letter or phoneme or unstressed syllable from the beginning of the word. At least, it is in Australian and British English. In the US, where they call it ‘apheresis’, it may have a different usage.]

    In the days when I used to do editing, I often used American manuals to guide me as some were for US journals. That’s where I picked up the terms.

    I will make a note, so thanks again.

  20. If the perpetrator had a gun licence in the past, maybe he had kept one or guns after the licence expired / was cancelled / whatever. Maybe it was a licence which allowed a shotgun and Monis illegally shortened in.

  21. AC

    [Maybe he gets his lunch from there and your kitchen assistant has been lacing his tucker.]

    She would love that! She is quite a nice older woman but you would never go to her seeking insight. She came here as a very young girl from Greece, barely educated, post-war and is out there on the right with the more foolish folk one hears on talkback.

  22. I was wondering; has Australia reached peek terror and Abbott’s and the media’s attempt to add to it will not help Abbott’s popularity. Seems I will never know; Abbott’s office has not reached peek stupidity.

  23. The SMH story about Joe Sweat-machine giving a free pass to multinational tax avoiders was very interesting. It was the main non-siege story. I sense that, because Joe has decided to sue for defo, they regard him as fair game. So suck it up Joe.

  24. Matthew

    [Aphaeresis is the omission of a letter or phoneme or unstressed syllable from the beginning of the word. At least, it is in Australian and British English. In the US, where they call it ‘apheresis’, it may have a different usage.]

    Apheresis in medicine is separating out blood components.

  25. [833
    frednk

    I was wondering; has Australia reached peek terror…]

    I dunno about peak terror, but certainly “peep horror” is on the front pages of the Murdoch press.

  26. Dio

    Yep, it’s what they do at the blood bank to collect the plasma (the yellow stuff).

    And that’s a chance to urge any lapsed or irregular blood donors out there see if they can get along over the next few weeks. Might be the best Christmas gift you can give.

  27. [Tony Abbott goes looting in Martin Place – rifling the pockets of the dead for political treasure]

    Least he is doing something he has done before

  28. rossmcg@841,

    I would, but as a former Pom who consumed the odd cheap meat pie during the late 80s they don’t want my blood. I understand the caution but given that, as far as I’m aware, there’s no evidence of blood products transmitting CJD/BSE or whatever more than 25 years after the risk was first recognised, it’s also very frustrating.

  29. Hockey’s got to be gating the IMF. Their recommendations are that superannuation concessions be stopped and negative gearing be reviewed

  30. theintellectualbogan

    I feel for you. As a long term donor I have seen the rules get more and more restrictive over the years. But I guess after a few incidents in the past they simply can’t take the risk.

  31. ross and ib

    Some of the rules are ridiculous. I’ve had patients knocked back who were long term donors because of very minor skin cancers.

  32. theintellectualbogan

    Posted Wednesday, December 17, 2014 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

    rossmcg@841,

    I would, but as a former Pom who consumed the odd cheap meat pie during the late 80s they don’t want my blood. I understand the caution but given that, as far as I’m aware, there’s no evidence of blood products transmitting CJD/BSE or whatever more than 25 years after the risk was first recognised, it’s also very frustrating

    I think the fact that there haven’t been any incidents is testament to the validity of the “rule”.

  33. I don’t like the media’s hounding of the judge who granted bail to the man accused of sex offences and accessory to murder after the fact. The judge should not be lambasted for his lack of training as a soothsayer. His job was to make a bail decision on the basis of the relevant law and facts before him him AT THE TIME. I see no reason to doubt the correctness of his decision. His correct bail decision did not cause this atrocity. Anyone who thinks it did, or contributed to it, needs to read up on post hoc ergo propter hoc. He made the decision he was duty-bound to make. The perpetrator made the decision to take hostages.

    We don’t live in a totalitarian state in which preventative detention is routine. I would rather take the one in ten million probability of being killed in a cafe in Australia than accept the one hundred percent certainty that I live in a police state.

    For people who think this judge got it wrong, what are the relevant bail principles and cases which make it wrong?

    For people who think that bail needs to be harder to get, how much harder? To what degree would you enlarge the scope of defendants who don’t get bail?

    Extremely rare tragedies happen. That sucks. It is not a reason to jettison core principles of our society. We must not pretend that we can micro-manage fate – that every horrible outcome could have been prevented had we changed this aspect or that aspect of the areas within our control. There are many things over which we have no control.

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