Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research proves very unlike Morgan in showing a slight improvement of the Coalition vote, but opinions on the future of the Liberal leadership and the result of the next election would wipe any smile off Tony Abbott’s face.

Essential Research bucks the trend a little in ticking back a point to the Coalition, with Labor’s lead now at 52-48. The Coalition gains a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting the parties at 40% and 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United steady at 10% and 2%. However, the fun for Tony Abbott ends there, as the poll turns in the remarkable findings that only 29% think him likely to be Liberal leader at the next election versus 51% for unlikely, and that 46% consider Labor to win the election versus 27% for the Coalition. Forty-seven per cent think Bill Shorten likely to remain as leader against only 20% who don’t. Further questions relate to climate change, a semi-regular question finding 57% (up one since September) relating it to human activity and 29% (down one) expressing skepticism, and fully 51% saying they are more concerned than they were two years ago against 9% for less concerned. Twenty-six per cent think Australia is doing enough versus 51% not enough, but opinion is even more negative about the responses of the United States and China.

Roy Morgan has turned in an eye-opener with its final poll of the year, recording a blowout in the Labor lead to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (53.5-46.5 last time) and 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences (53-47). On the primary vote, Labor is up 3.5% to 41%, the Coalition is down 4% to 35%, the Greens are down 0.5% to 11.5% and Palmer United is steady on 2%. This is not in fact the worst result for the term recorded by the Coalition, having been surpassed by the poll of June 7/8. However, that was a single weekly result rather the a combined fortnightly one in Morgan’s usual fashion. If combined with the poll of the following week, the result comes out as comparable with this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,023 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Did I miss something (like a couple of years)?

    The side bar says “Bludgertrack 2016”.

    It also says the current update is Dec 4, but should be Dec 11, I think.

  2. [ Bilbo
    That sounds like nothing that a good splash of methylated spirits wouldn’t fix ]

    What about Bishops cure for skin conditions? Kero wasn’t it?

    Briefly @ 991…. 🙂

  3. I think Abbott is just finding out now that you can try and insert yourself too much in national/international incidents that do not directly involve yourself. Though you would have thought he might have already learnt that after MH370 and MH17. In the end this is not about the PM, and Peta would be well advised to tell him to leave everything up to the appropriate authorities, which does not include him.

    The general public sense very quickly when someone is over-milking the situation.

  4. Thanks for your response Dio.

    In other news, I am rather saddened to realise that The Colbert Report and, thus, the satirical persona of Stephen Colbert ends this week.

    One of the best and most amusing modern satires there is – especially in the American satirical comedy genre.

  5. [There have been 17 942 reported cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD), with 6388 reported deaths.]

    Somewhat short of the million predicted by a poster here.

  6. I know something that kills itches dead. Warning. It is the nuclear option.

    when nothing else works and you scratch till you bleed and you are ready to drink yourself senseless to get some relief (like what I had on my shins and ankles a few years ago) grab some chilli-rub cream. I can still hear my unearthly screams as the Capscaicin burnt my nerve ends into withered twigs. As the burning settled down to just agony, I noticed something wonderful. Nothing itched, and it did not itch for days. New skin grew back and I ceased tearing fingernail runnels into my flesh.

    I never found out what set this skin condition off, because it never came back. I surmise my body leaned that reacting that way to something leads to chilli torture and decided it wasn’t worth it.

    Now I have warned you and I can say using it this way is not on the directions. I just surmised, correctly in my case, that as pain and itches use the same nerves and are same sort of thing, that a pain cream would work the same on an itch.

    So now if I get an itch that a nice scratch won’t get rid of, I hit it with some

    I strongly suggest you don’t put it on any delicate bits.

  7. Briefly

    For someone who makes much of their intellectual capacities, I suggest you stop reading the headlines only of WHO reports and read the text.

    Liberian data is for two days ONLY so needs to be treated with caution.

    Sierra Leone and Guinea is encouraging.

  8. Ok I censored this in advance, I’d also like to apologise to William in advance – tho if you think this is too much anger well its nothing compared to what he’d get if he said that shit in my presence.

    Desert Fox you can f@ck off and d!e.

    How dare you question someone who has put up with a lifetime of racism from gutter scum like you or comment on how they are allowed to respond to it. That is racism in itself you steaming sh!thead. (censored for violent imagery.) You have nothing to say hear so shut up and crawl back under your rock.

    You have no idea what its like to feel rejected in your own home cos you aren’t white. To be unsure whether its just gonna be words or if fists and boots will follow them. You have no idea what its like to wait in a shop while some bigoted redneck serves everyone who just walked in front of you cos you’re not white. Or any of the million other little things that happen day in day out to remind you that still in 2014 some people consider you a second class citizen in your own home.

    Then when someone vents these feelings – feelings that day in day out scumf#ck sh!theads like you cause in us – then you have the nerve to criticise them. At least she is honest about her feelings (unlike you who tries to hide their white supremacist attitude.) About how it feels to be silently spat and shat on by people who think they are better, every fricken day. About how the bile builds up and comes out against people who don’t deserve it instead of those who do – walking arguments for retrospective abortion like you. While you make smarmy comments about how thats just not nice. You’re a race baiting dog.

    You know what else f@#kwit?

    I hate you.

    And I don’t even know you.

    I hope someone tells me if I outlive you so I can p!ss on your grave.

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