Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research proves very unlike Morgan in showing a slight improvement of the Coalition vote, but opinions on the future of the Liberal leadership and the result of the next election would wipe any smile off Tony Abbott’s face.

Essential Research bucks the trend a little in ticking back a point to the Coalition, with Labor’s lead now at 52-48. The Coalition gains a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting the parties at 40% and 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United steady at 10% and 2%. However, the fun for Tony Abbott ends there, as the poll turns in the remarkable findings that only 29% think him likely to be Liberal leader at the next election versus 51% for unlikely, and that 46% consider Labor to win the election versus 27% for the Coalition. Forty-seven per cent think Bill Shorten likely to remain as leader against only 20% who don’t. Further questions relate to climate change, a semi-regular question finding 57% (up one since September) relating it to human activity and 29% (down one) expressing skepticism, and fully 51% saying they are more concerned than they were two years ago against 9% for less concerned. Twenty-six per cent think Australia is doing enough versus 51% not enough, but opinion is even more negative about the responses of the United States and China.

Roy Morgan has turned in an eye-opener with its final poll of the year, recording a blowout in the Labor lead to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (53.5-46.5 last time) and 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences (53-47). On the primary vote, Labor is up 3.5% to 41%, the Coalition is down 4% to 35%, the Greens are down 0.5% to 11.5% and Palmer United is steady on 2%. This is not in fact the worst result for the term recorded by the Coalition, having been surpassed by the poll of June 7/8. However, that was a single weekly result rather the a combined fortnightly one in Morgan’s usual fashion. If combined with the poll of the following week, the result comes out as comparable with this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,023 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Further to my 922 re #illridewithyou: currently has an article on the good things that have come out of the Martin Place tragedy. It includes a section on #illridewithyou and other examples.

    “Five moments when Aussies shouted down racism”

    (Apologies for no URL link but I can’t do that while still learning on my iPad)

  2. [938
    You can say that again. The AMA used to be one of the Liberal Party’s best lobbying friends

    I think the only allies the Liberal Party has left are the Australian Defence League and the Australian Christian Lobby. Even the spivs in the corporate sector are looking askance at Abbott.

  3. It says a lot about the insecurities of the Right that they would overreact and see the #illridewithyou hashtag as some sort of threat or, at least, disgusting crime.

    Sure, there are some legitimate criticisms (a cliche but still fair criticism is that it might be a bit on the “token gesture slacktivism” side of things) but its intention is still noble. I cannot see any problem with the message of “What happened in Sydney was awful but I don’t want to let idiots take it out on you!”

    Rather more troubling are those who think it’s some sort of political conspiracy to bring down Abbott. Either that is some extremely paranoid and extremely insecure thinking, or you’re admitting you’re hoping that Abbott will demonise Muslims and score political points and don’t like that the plan is being undercut.

    The hashtag is, at worst, a harmless gesture of goodwill and tolerance. It has gone international and has reminded the world that, unlike during the post-2001 hysteria, we are not going to let this undermine our values – namely those of tolerance (I’d appreciate if we could just forgo the cynicism on that point, just this once.)

  4. Re Briefly @949: it does seem that this ebola outbreak, bad as it is, could have been much worse. Measures and assistance to control the outbreak seem to be having an effect, although we are not out of the woods yet.

    But I remember just two and a half months ago, there were what seemed to me to be credible predictions of over a million cases by mid December, with 10,000+ new cases each week.

  5. [955
    Carey Moore
    Rather more troubling are those who think it’s some sort of political conspiracy to bring down Abbott.

    No conspiracy needed, Abbott’s doing a fine job bringing himself down.


    [Doxing, sometimes spelled as Doxxing, refers to the practice of investigating and revealing a target subject’s personally identifiable information, such as home address, workplace information and credit card numbers, without consent. The word is derived from “docs,” which is a shortened term for “documents.”]

    Not only against their will, but usually done so with the person thinking they are unidentifiable.

  7. We have heard so much about Muslims all being of the same mindset and desiring the end of everything that makes up our lifestyle. Yesterday and today we have seen them all tarred with the same brush as that disgusting piece of nonentity in the cafe in Sydney.

    Now let me see those same morons levy the same level of bile against the followers of this disgusting piece of nonentity:

    Peter Fox ‏@Peter_Fox59 7m7 minutes ago Newcastle, New South Wales
    Former Catholic Brother Bernard McGrath to face more than 250 child sex charges in the Hunter … … via @newcastleherald

    For those right wing bigots and feral nonentities out there in simple words this piece of shit is to face charges of 250 child rapes.

    Now levy the same condemnation of this religion.

  8. Hey, Dio. If you’re still around, I have a medical question you might be able to answer (not that I think you’re a walking medical encyclopaedia or anything):

    Does the removal of the adenoidal tonsils reduce the chance of snoring? I remember I used to snore as a kid and then I had mine removed and I don’t snore anymore. But it’s possible I also had my sinuses cleared as well (I don’t remember and it’s too late in the evening to call my mother and ask!)

  9. Fairfax on Abbott’s ‘urgent review’

    [Mr Abbott said the review – which will be conducted by federal and NSW officials – would report back by the end of January and would focus on how Monis evaded authorities.

    This includes how he got permanent residency in Australia, why he was receiving welfare payments, how he got a gun licence, why he was allowed out into the community on bail and why he had fallen off the terror watch list in 2009.

    Mr Abbott said he would “not rest” until he was confident that Australians were as safe as the government could make them.]

    So, In Abbott’s mind the scapegoats will be…Labor, NSW judiciary, the public servants and??

  10. Haven’t seen our prime moron hunt a headline abbott spouting and demanding answers to a range of questions about this:

    Peter Fox ‏@Peter_Fox59 7m7 minutes ago Newcastle, New South Wales
    Former Catholic Brother Bernard McGrath to face more than 250 child sex charges in the Hunter … … via @newcastleherald

    This piece of shit is to face charges of 250 child rapes.

    Come on abbott find a fwacking headline for yourself in that.

  11. [956

    You’re right, Steve. This outbreak also demonstrates the best way to curtail an epidemic is to take early action. Delay is the worst mistake.

  12. [I recommend a good moisturising cream liberally applied to the infected area.]

    Funny, that would’ve been my advice, they told me they got doxxed.

  13. Very funny. Should just specify I wasn’t asking for medical advice, just his knowledge on a topic (if he has any).

    I asked because I was chatting to someone who was complaining about her partner snoring and I jokingly suggested ripping his adenoids out, then I wasn’t sure whether my knowledge was correct.) I am certainly not seeking any advice on medical actions (I would never do that with someone online, especially an anonymous person.)

  14. One problem for Abbott is the timing. With such weak consumer sentiment at a time of peak consumer activity, it’s not a great idea to be dog whistling too much.

  15. [974
    William Bowe

    Diogenes, is there anything that can be done for the terrible scourge of Itchy Scrot?]

    Presumably this is the same Itchy that once sought endorsement by One Nation to run for the rural seat of Bald Patch. If so, he was scratched after the distribution of preferences. Bloody shame, some said, while others were sure he’d be back. His nickname was Persistent.

  16. Carey

    Enlarged adenoids in children can cause snoring and sleep apnoea but it’s uncommon in adults that removing adenoids helps with snoring.

    Snoring is serious if the snorer stops breathing for significant periods as that leads to sleep disturbances and heart failure.

    One of my best friends was a surgeon who specialized in sleep problems but he tragically died of myeloma.


    Sounds like a complication of over indulgence. Stop it or you’ll go blind.

  17. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, December 17, 2014 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Scrot Morrison itchy. Well, I did curse him with the fleas of a thousand camels in his crotch. So it worked?]

    Sounds like you got William instead.

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