BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate wraps up business for the year (I think) showing the Abbott government in worse shape than ever.

Unless ReachTEL has something up its sleeve in the next few days, this week’s BludgerTrack reading is the last for the year, and it finds no indication that the rapid momentum away from the Coalition is tapering off. Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%. Now it’s at 54.2%, following a 0.3% shift since last week that has also delivered seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on the seat projection. Palmer United is also showing no signs of bottoming out, a remorseless downward trend since the mid-year Senate changeover having sent it from 6.3% to 2.3%.

A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll this week knocks the froth off a recent improvement for Bill Shorten, and in doing so reverts his trendline to its remarkable picture of stability throughout the year, interrupted only by some particularly strong ratings in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Tony Abbott’s net rating slips slightly further, but this is due to the momentum of the trend rather than the effect of Newspoll, which was no worse for him than last fortnight’s. Newspoll also suggests the surge to Shorten on preferred prime minister is levelling off, albeit that he retains what from Abbott’s perspective is an alarmingly big lead by the normal standards of an Opposition Leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,672 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. As is the norm nowadays in all things in our society, all this reshuffle does is treat symptoms and not the cause. The symptom they see is the message isn’t being sold, the true cause is a woeful budget.

    You can change the monkeys but the same tune will be played.

  2. Morrison says that his top priority is getting people into jobs but surely that’s the job of the Treasurer (stimulating the economy) and the Employment Minister. The only role for Social Services is paying benefits to the unemployed. His only role is likely to be TAKING PEOPLE OFF benefits, which has nothing to do with getting them into work, unless that work is in unregulated sectors at starvation levels.

    Oh, wait…….

  3. Kirky

    I disagree.

    They know they have to reset the fairness button because it is crucifying them.

    Who better than Morrison to smash the PPL and transmute it into a means-tested (therefore fair) support for childcare?

    It will be a winner, IMHO.

  4. lizzie

    [When a cynical journo asked whether Morrison was really suited to welfare, Abbott answered that he was a nice guy who had two children. So there!]

    Welfare recipients need to be aware if he treats them like he treated asylum seekers the elderly should be worried.

  5. Turnbull as Treasurer might have provide a better chance of a reset. Its in this area that the tories need a competent and effective minister. Turnbull would have communicated better and maybe even have sold some of the unfair policies.

    Most of the media and business community would have given him a fair run and he probably would have been well received by voters.

    Instead, poor old Joe, the cigar sucking plonker has been left there to wallow. Doubtful if he even he believes he is capable of doing the job.

    Abbott have given Labor a Christmas and New Years present IMO.

    Andrews to Defence. FFS. More Chaplains for the troops? More onwards Christian Soldiers music? Take his Relationship Counseling vouchers with him?

    Those who were boned or not promoted will have already started plotting. Plenty of time over the holidays to brood on it all while on the booze.

  6. Re “Grattan : “This could be the restart the Abbott Government needed going into the new year or it could prove a mere reshuffling of deck chairs on the Titanic” – this could only be parody. Right? How could Michelle have been a political journalist 40 odd years and learned absolutely nothing about clear and reasoned thought? … Oh, wait.. oops, sorry, answered my own question.

  7. Grattan : “Morrision to Social Security could be an inspired move to recalibrate the PPL and fix some budget woes, but the appointment could be a disaster for the Government, showing its harsher side again on those most vulnerable”

  8. The whole reshuffle looks very much as if it was all hatched in the Prime Minister’s Office. Not much evidence of his having truly consulted his senior ministers. Abbott and Credlin are going to have to wear the fallout.

    The smaller states have been dudded: WA has lost a senior minister and only gained a parl sec (Mesma must be spewing). Qld has copped a hospital pass (Dutton to Immigration) and had a parl sec swapped – Mason for Ciobo (don’t know what is behind that).

    Dutton and Andrews at least are likely to have extreme difficulty getting across the details of their new portfolios, given that they are both of very limited ability, and are likely to be pretty resentful of that.

    Lots of material for a bit of discontent.

  9. [@NewsAustralia: Reaction on private Facebook groups for Australian military families to ‘Defence Minister Kevin Andrews’ a mix of fury and shock #auspol]

    After the Defence pay and conditions cut fiasco, putting Mr WorKChoices in charge is a dumb idea. Against all conventional wisdom, Abbott’s ‘hamfisted reshuffle may lose him the military vote

  10. lizzie@1648

    Hmmm. Now it’s swapped to anti-wrinkle treatment.
    Crikey knows my age

    Lizzie if you are using chrome there is a free adblock addon you can use. I presume there are others for other browsers.

    I find pages load faster without ads. Right now adblock has shut down 9 ads from PB on this page.

  11. ajm@1653

    Morrison says that his top priority is getting people into jobs but surely that’s the job of the Treasurer (stimulating the economy) and the Employment Minister. The only role for Social Services is paying benefits to the unemployed. His only role is likely to be TAKING PEOPLE OFF benefits, which has nothing to do with getting them into work, unless that work is in unregulated sectors at starvation levels.

    Oh, wait…….

    But that is how he apparently reads it. Take people off welfare, and the only thing they can do is get jobs, right?

    Sadly, I think your analysis is correct.

    I paid taxes all my life without complaint, in fact with a sense of duty, because I believe that that is what you have to do to live in a fair society.

    My taxes supported my father and my aunts when they could no longer work. And, of course, all the other people who needed help, no matter what their situation – whether for disability or age or illness.

    This is a measure of a fair and just society.

    Mr Hockey’s budget fails that test.

  12. The reshuffle is generally a good reshuffle despite there still being a few hacks in it.

    How just how does Kevin Andrews keep getting jobs, surely this bloke must have some hot photos or something, has there ever been a more incompetent minister who has managed too survive in the cabinet for as long as this hack as, usually they get found out and dropped.

    I think Tone could have gone further but generally I will give it a pass grade, not quite a credit.

  13. Tony has committed to the party having a “conscious” vote on dying with dignity in Letter in The Age today. As distinct from the unconscious vote that usually happens.
    It is even more amazing that someone believes what the Abortt said.

    “A brand new Tony?
    Tony Abbott finally succumbed, after months of pressure, and telephoned Peter Short, who is terminally ill, (The Age, 20/12). They had a half-hour chat about the proposed dying with dignity legislation and the Prime Minister committed to a conscious vote for Liberal Party members on the issue that a majority of Australians want passed.

    “It is an amazing feat by Tony Abbott to respond to such pressure and to make Peter’s year. Humanity has somewhat been restored in politics.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-letters/social-services-dignity-care-and-support-for-all-20141222-12cbca.html

  14. The latest new measures regarding Pensioners eligibility as from January 1 2015 should send shivers down the spines of those in this category who thought that the the LNP was the party that had their interest in mind.

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