BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate wraps up business for the year (I think) showing the Abbott government in worse shape than ever.

Unless ReachTEL has something up its sleeve in the next few days, this week’s BludgerTrack reading is the last for the year, and it finds no indication that the rapid momentum away from the Coalition is tapering off. Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%. Now it’s at 54.2%, following a 0.3% shift since last week that has also delivered seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on the seat projection. Palmer United is also showing no signs of bottoming out, a remorseless downward trend since the mid-year Senate changeover having sent it from 6.3% to 2.3%.

A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll this week knocks the froth off a recent improvement for Bill Shorten, and in doing so reverts his trendline to its remarkable picture of stability throughout the year, interrupted only by some particularly strong ratings in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Tony Abbott’s net rating slips slightly further, but this is due to the momentum of the trend rather than the effect of Newspoll, which was no worse for him than last fortnight’s. Newspoll also suggests the surge to Shorten on preferred prime minister is levelling off, albeit that he retains what from Abbott’s perspective is an alarmingly big lead by the normal standards of an Opposition Leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,672 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  3. abcnews24 has just said that the Pakistan Taliban is NOT listed in Australia as a proscribed terrorist organisation.

    I am astounded. How can this organisation NOY be a banned terrorist group?

  6. http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/roads-rail-and-tricky-number-games-20141215-127yz7.html

    [The Napthine and Baillieu governments should have had the political courage to explain to Victorians that East West Link would only ever make sense as part of a comprehensive, whole-of-city investment in both roads and public transport. It was never meant to stand alone. Yet, as the documents show, the Coalition ploughed on, deaf to calls for transparency and ultimately trapped by its own agenda. It became immersed in a vapid effort to justify the project.
    …
    The Age has supported the East West Link since Sir Rod Eddington first urged extensive development of transport and other infrastructure to meet the rapidly expanding population of this city. The challenge remains, and Premier Daniel Andrews needs to confront it head on. He may have a short-term political win, but the question remains for Mr Andrews and Labor: What will this government do? Melbourne cannot afford a government that spends the next four years humming and hawing, setting up more committees to consider more proposals and devising planning documents for great big ideas, only to shelve those projects.

    Labor’s plan to remove scores of level crossings is an essential investment but, like East West Link, it will not resolve the demands of an increasingly congested city.

    Mr Andrews needs to seize the opportunity and negotiate a positive result from the federal government for this state. He has a fresh mandate and, with the Abbott government reeling from a disastrous first year, he should ride the political momentum. He must ensure that Tony Abbott, the self-proclaimed infrastructure Prime Minister, delivers to Victoria the money needed for major transport and roads projects. Indeed, he can even claim a form of bipartisan support, with new Opposition Leader Matthew Guy agreeing that federal funds already invested with the state government for East West Link should stay here. ]

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Jason Wroe looks at the difficulties facing the Monis inquiry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sydney-siege-why-the-gunman-inquiry-wont-give-us-simple-answers-20141217-129c76.html
    Michelle Grattan asks the same questions.
    https://theconversation.com/political-leaders-ask-how-gunman-was-on-the-loose-35561
    Stephen Koukoulas – “Open for business”? The Australian economy since the election.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/open-for-business-the-australian-economy-since-the-election.html#.VJHbziuUeSo
    The brutality of the ABC cuts hits home.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/abc-journalists-informed-of-potential-redundancies-before-christmas-20141217-1290eg.html
    Mark Latham – Martin Place is not the Middle East.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/martin_place_is_not_the_middle_east_4BOi84VkWRbl87vGRUNUPP
    Peter Wicks with a good examination of the Martin Place siege.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/gutless-the-martin-place-siege-and-the-political-fallout-to-come/
    Now it’s Woolworths’ time to be scrutinised by the ACCC over the bullying of suppliers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/woolworths-accused-of-bullying-suppliers-into-paying-millions-for-cheap-cheap-campaign-20141217-1293tt.html
    Freya Newman breaks her silence
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/12/15/freya-newman-breaks-silence-thank-supporters
    The head of the ATO identified tax abuse by multinationals before Hockey turned away from taking action.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/ato-chief-identified-tax-abuse-by-multinationals-before-joe-hockey-backed-away-from-reform-pledge-20141217-129auf.html
    And we think WE have problems with boats!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/record-number-of-asylum-seeker-deaths-at-sea-in-2014-international-organisation-for-migration-20141217-12903h.html

  8. Section 2 . . .

    The tricks that are used to avoid FOI.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/watchdog-exposes-tricks-public-servants-use-to-avoid-sharing-information-with-the-public-20141217-1296by.html
    How puerile is this??? And the call them “managers”?
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/ato-public-servants-enticed-with-scratch-cards-to-show-up-to-work-20141217-1281hg.html
    Medibank was chickenfeed when compared to looming state sell-offs.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/12/17/insurance/medibank-was-chickenfeed-compared-looming-state-sell-offs
    John Warhurst – The political year that was 2014.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australian-politics-the-year-that-was-2014-20141217-128511.html
    Bob Ellis and the perspective of the Craig Thompson case.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/12/17/the-innocence-of-craig-thomson-74/
    Ron Tandberg and tactics for the Victorian upper house.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Pope on the internecine issues in the Taliban.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html
    David Rowe – The ghosts of budgets past and future.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  13. The Government seems to want Senator Lambie to vote no on everything. They have raised rents in ADF housing according to 24.

    Peter Costello has been speaking how the government is lame duck. He says the Government does not have the political capital to make tax reforms

  17. In an unexpected nanosecond of lucidity, Ellis queries whether he was conned:

    [Having met him I thought he was not lying, and compered a money-raising event for him, conducted some opinion polls for him (the results weren’t good) and wrote seventy-four pieces, or thereabouts, on his innocence on my blog.]

  20. Morning all. A beautiful set of numbers to finish off the year – thanks William. The sad thing is, as. Stephen Koukoulis clearly shows, Australia’s economic numbers are as bad as Abbott’s and neither he nor Hockey has any idea how to fix them. We have gone from top three in the OECD to midfield and heading down.

    How many unemployed will it take to turf a Liberal government? I fear several hundred thousand.

  21. Bill 10

    I am familiar with most of the political nicknames but not these? Is “Itchy Scrot” an unpopular PM? Is “fungal infection” Joe Hockey? Who or what policy is “canestan cream”. Or is that a double dissolution? Now theres a phrase you do not here often these days! 🙂

  22. Lizzie 6

    Thanks. I think the Age is being generous to the Liberals. What it omits is that Sir Ron Eddington subsequently switched to supporting the EW Rail tunnel in preference to the EW road link after more work was done. Sometimes the answer you get depends on the question you are asked. The EW road tunnel only was preferred when a public transport solution was off the table.

  23. It seems that company tax rorts were enabled by Howard (Costello?) but cannot be fixed by Abbott (Hockey).

    [But Mr Jordan said publicly during the stakeholder consultation period that an anti-avoidance measure was on the table to prevent ongoing “mischief” and “abuse of section 25-90”.

    He told a parliamentary committee in February that section 25-90 was the only one under the tax act that allows companies to make deductions against tax-free income from overseas subsidiaries.

    He said the provision was imposed by the Howard government to reduce compliance costs. “What happened, though, is that Australian companies that were owned by foreign companies who were mature and profitable and had high taxable incomes here in Australia moved things around within their international groups that effectively dumped debt here in Australia – they created debt,” he told the committee in February.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/ato-chief-identified-tax-abuse-by-multinationals-before-joe-hockey-backed-away-from-reform-pledge-20141217-129auf.html#ixzz3MBrxa5ln

  24. Socrates @ 22

    All this “commercial in confidence” and hiding of figures merely enables a government to be tricky. If it walks like a duck …

  26. This article suggests that if we simply took violence against women seriously Monis would never have been out on bail. (Nor would Bayley have been.). Hard to argue against that.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/17/man-haron-monis-bail-domestic-violence-taken-seriously-terrorism

    Technically I do not agree that it is terrorism, but it is a crime to deliberately instill fear, and needs to be treated more seriously than a pub brawl, not less.

  28. Lizzie 23

    Yes for the Liberals “cannot” means “I refuse to make my wealthy friends pay tax”.

    When you think about it, why do we even consult business as “stakeholders” when planning tax reform? We are just tipping our hand so they can get ready for any change by restructuring before the change takes effect. They are trying to avoid tax FFS. They are never going to say “tax us this way, you will rake in twice as much…”. Do we consult drink drivers when changing road safety laws? (I hope not.)

  29. Socrates

    When I was young and the budget lock up was important, business was NEVER consulted before tax changes. It was kept very secret

  32. Dtt

    Exactly. Same when I worked in government with many land and transport planning decisions. It was a crime to disclose them. As Eddie Obeid proved, you can make a lot of money if you know in advance what government is doing. We should be challenging this sort of maladministration, not congratulating them for being “consultative”. Have a good day all.

  33. shellbell

    I appreciated the posts in which you responded to being out and about that place.

    It was a more real thing for me than the thousands of MSM hours of professional emoting.

    Thanks.

  36. The TOR for the enquiry are quintessential rotten apple.

    In times of national stress great leaders lead their nations towards inclusiveness as a basis for joint action in a desired direction.

    Abbott goes straight to leaners. Evil genius? Or just dopey bastard?

    One rotten apple gone. One to go.

  37. Morning all

    I managed to hear the last few minutes of Shorten being interviewed with Ulhmann on ABC radio. He was asked about the siege and our intelligience laws etc. i am going to see if the audio is available online

  39. On twitter

    [Government that wants national private information dragnet can’t even work out whether someone had a gun license. Beyond satire. #auspol]

  42. bw

    Who support the lifting of the embargo. They know it has not removed Fidel and is brother from power. It only makes it harder for those in Cuba and those trying to leave.

    Now there is going to be an emabassy in Cuba they do not have as far to go to seek asylum

  46. [ The brutality of the ABC cuts hits home.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/abc-journalists-informed-of-potential-redundancies-before-christmas-20141217-1290eg.html ]

    The thing that really stands out for me is there *STILL* has only been fairly muted criticism from the ABC about the ‘No Cuts to the ABC’ broken promise.

    Yes, there has been some, but in the past broken promises have been dragged out and out for months even years.

    Amazing. Those at the ABC who faithfully and at times breathlessly covered phony tony for over 4 years etc before he got the big job and are now out the street on their arse must be still wondering HTF did that happen.

    Easy ABC. Many of you were suckers, some of you even gave abbott an easy ride and never dug too deep when it was clear the nation and the ABC were being taken for a ride, a dangerous destructive ride.

    So keep bending over ABC – abbott’s not finished with you yet.

    Murdoch wants a lot more yet.

    Suckers.

  47. Yeah I’ll just emerge from lurking for a moment to say some of us are trying to eat breakfast and whoa, too much information. And I’m not talking about the TPP.

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