Unless ReachTEL has something up its sleeve in the next few days, this week’s BludgerTrack reading is the last for the year, and it finds no indication that the rapid momentum away from the Coalition is tapering off. Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%. Now it’s at 54.2%, following a 0.3% shift since last week that has also delivered seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on the seat projection. Palmer United is also showing no signs of bottoming out, a remorseless downward trend since the mid-year Senate changeover having sent it from 6.3% to 2.3%.
A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll this week knocks the froth off a recent improvement for Bill Shorten, and in doing so reverts his trendline to its remarkable picture of stability throughout the year, interrupted only by some particularly strong ratings in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Tony Abbott’s net rating slips slightly further, but this is due to the momentum of the trend rather than the effect of Newspoll, which was no worse for him than last fortnight’s. Newspoll also suggests the surge to Shorten on preferred prime minister is levelling off, albeit that he retains what from Abbott’s perspective is an alarmingly big lead by the normal standards of an Opposition Leader.
[guytaur
Posted Thursday, December 18, 2014 at 8:48 am | Permalink
BW
Also Ezra Klein of Washington Post and MSNBC has said its good for Democrats in a tweet earlier this morning]
Nice try but no cigar.
guytaur
[Cuba friendly means more Latino votes in Florida for Democrats]
It will hand the Republican votes to Exiled Cuba Nationalists, the ones who aren’t already Republican, however, there aren’t much vote changes there.
BW
The rantings of the likes of Nario Rubio do not represent the whole of the cuban community. They are as divided on this issue as anyone else.
I will take the comments of political commentator Ezra Klein over your statements.
We will know for sure from Democrat candidates response who hope to win seats.
So nice try but no cigar
sorry Mario Rubio
Savva in today’s ‘The Australian’, nails it:
[WITHIN the space of a few hours, not for the first time and, sadly, probably not the last, Tony Abbott performed at his absolute worst, then at his best.
The Prime Minister again showed that when tragedy strikes, he responds with empathy and calm resolve. He was measured when he spoke on Monday while the Sydney siege was under way, saying simply what Australians expect from their leaders, no more, no less.
However, even at his best there was a lapse, a consequence perhaps of a torrid few weeks and a sleepless night. In his remarks hours after the siege ended with the deaths of two hostages and the gunman, as national leader he should have provided words of unity as well as words of comfort for the victims and their families.
Perhaps there was no real need for him to say it, but it is not one of those things better left unsaid. It would have been good to hear, then and there, something about social cohesion, and why Australians will never allow it to be undermined by the actions of a criminal madman using religion as a cover for violence and murder. There should have been an acknowledgment that no decent Australian would take out their anger on innocent Muslims, or tolerate anyone else who did.]
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/06/24/after-decades-of-gop-support-cubans-shifting-toward-the-democratic-party/
Credlin finishes with:
[There is grave danger of a breakdown between the Prime Minister and large sections of his partyroom as they form the slow, painful conclusion, thanks to the feedback from the many festive functions they are now attending, that the threat to the survival of the Abbott government is not faulty communications, not Joe Hockey or, at heart, Credlin. The threat is Abbott himself.
Ultimately he is responsible for all of it.]
[There should have been an acknowledgment that no decent Australian would take out their anger on innocent Muslims, or tolerate anyone else who did.]
On what basis does Savva simply assume Abbott has it in him to offer this kind of unity? Nothing we’ve ever seen from Abbott suggests that he does.
Boerwar
I gather you mean Savva. 🙂
Peter Wicks article as posted by BK. Is this correct?
[However this is not in any way the “Lone Wolf who goes under the radar” attack authorities had warned us of. Quite the opposite actually.The colloquial radar in fact might as well been a frame surrounded with light bulbs bearing a portrait of his face. This was someone who was on every watch list imaginable. He was on the police watch list, both at State and Federal level, on the ASIO watch list and every counter-terrorism watch list we have in the country. Not only this it was even reported on TV this morning that the FBI were sharing information with our agencies regarding his activities.]
BW
As Labor saw with the GST voters change when reality bites.
This policy change is at worst neutral for the Democrats. If it was going to make a difference it would have done so already.
Lifting the embargo was in President Obamas election promises when he ran first term..
So its wait and see as President Obama is changing the debate and thus will be changing the votes so past polls can only do what they always do tell us the result when the poll was taken
“@KJBar: Sydney University says Professor Barry Spurr has submitted his resignation and the University has accepted it.”
confessions
As was mentioned yesterday. Abbott was sensible in the morning, and by the afternoon he went back into f wit mode.
guytaur
Wish Abbott would submit his resignation too. 😀
Will be interesting to see how long before he backflips on this –
[ Hockey rules out GST hike
Treasurer Joe Hockey has emphatically ruled out lifting the GST, saying Australians can’t afford any increase.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has urged Australia to boost or broaden its goods and services tax, saying its rate of 10 per cent is low by international standards.
But the treasurer has rejected talk of a hike, saying the OECD is not looking at the “full picture” of the Australian economy.
Any increase in the GST would have to be accompanied by tax cuts to compensate low and middle income Australians, he told the Seven Network on Thursday.
“We haven’t got the financial capacity to do that at the moment,” he said.
“Also, I don’t think it is the right time at all to increase prices for Australians. I think they’ve got enough pressure on family budgets as it stands.”
If the government were to change its mind, it would take any GST hike to an election, Mr Hockey said.
The Australian Financial Review reports the government’s tax white paper, which will investigate potential alterations to the GST, has been pushed back until 2015. ]
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/12/18/tax/hockey-rules-out-gst-hike
By Denholm in today’s ‘The Australian’
[THE Abbott government has quietly agreed to suspend a ban on broadscale land clearing in Tasmania — and has flagged a further watering-down of protections for native forests.
The federal Parliamentary Secretary for Agriculture, Richard Colbeck, told The Australian he had agreed to a Tasmanian request to delay a ban on broadscale land clearing that was due to take force from January 1.
Senator Colbeck confirmed that the move — delaying the ban for at least a further year, pending a review — followed direct lobbying from Tasmanian farmers.]
This helps to prove the Greens’ Party supporters’ repeated assertions that there is no difference between Labor and the Coalition, does it not?
It also helps to prove that the Greens, to the extent that they are damaging the Labor Party, are playing Russian roulette with the environment, does it not?
It also helps to demonstrate that BOPmail only gets you so far, does it not?
It also helps to demonstrate that, while we are all waiting for the Greens National Government, the Coalition is going to do an awful lot of irreversible damage to the environment, does it not?
dave
Hewson was on The Project last night. He stated the bleeding obvious. We have a revenue problem. What is our govt going to do about it? He reckons the GST is one part
v
Yes – Savva. Just as well I was not near either of them when I made that slip.
They don’t do mutual lurrrrve.
Boerwar
Lol
v
Did someone on the show ask him how much it might affect the price of a birthday cake?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_cake_interview
Boerwar
Hewson would have just laughed it off. He has gotten used to the ridicule over the years
Vic – The GST is about having the capacity to give further tax cuts to business and the wealthy as we all know.
The many tax breaks etc are what require attention, but probably won’t get.
Not much response to hockey letting multi- nationals off paying a fair amount of tax either, ie the MYEFO decision etc.
[dave
Posted Thursday, December 18, 2014 at 9:34 am | Permalink
Will be interesting to see how long before he backflips on this –
Hockey rules out GST hike]
The game plan is to drive the states into debt and desperation and have them force the issue onto an ‘unwilling’ federal coalition government.
The states then take the ‘blame’.
The Coalition has already stated that it is up to the states – all the states- to get togerther if they want a GST rise.
Meanwhile, just to make sure there is not much lolly to go around, the Feds are going to cut corporate tax by 1.5% next year.
Win-win for Hockey and whoever happens to be the prime minister when it happens.
[Abbott was sensible in the morning, and by the afternoon he went back into f wit mode.]
Trying to play the Big I Am by announcing the review and revealing information about the gunman without checking it first.
Another thought occurred to me: it’s also possible that Abbott was given the correct information in security briefings, but because details aren’t his strong point he muffed it and confused some other kind of security license with a gun license.
I don’t think Abbott was all that good, at his best, anyone could do the PM thing in a crisis it is easy to write easy to deliver and easy to be genuine. As soon as it got a bit harder he was an immediate epic fail. And I cannot believe the ABC covered for him, whether or not he was poorly advised or someone in his political staff made it up (why would you do that) it was an obvious hand grenade and a smarter more competent PM would not have provided the poor advice to the nation as unqualified fact.
Confessions
As boerwar reminds us. We got rid of one rotten apple. One more to go
In political terms there is a bright side to the Sydney Siege. Today is the court appearance on charges arising from ICAC for Obeid and company.
This will not be the front page as it would have been. Just as we saw with Mr Thomson yesterday.
This means the Liberals when they get to court will get the full exposure. Thus evening up the field politically in NSW.
As Labor has made more moves for reform I think this is good for democracy as it means we may have a real competition rather than the Liberals jus getting back in.
So besides all the coming together and support for each other and rejection of hate we could end up with a better result for our democracy in having a real choice at the NSW State election.
lizzie
What is the Age editorial attempting to achieve today re the east west link?
@Sue_Dunlevy: Senate can’t block key Medicare cut and doctors gap fees could rise to $45 as a result. http://t.co/Snr8XBg698
I’m unsurprised by Sen. Leyonhjelm’s comments. Unfortunately, reality disagrees.
http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2014/12/04/3599271/austin-shooter-christian-extremism/
Raaraa:
[It will hand the Republican votes to Exiled Cuba Nationalists, the ones who aren’t already Republican, however, there aren’t much vote changes there.]
Among Hispanic Americans in the US, Cuban Americans are exceptional in that they strongly skew Republican. However, younger Cuban Americans are not as polarised as their parents. They helped Obama carry Florida in both presidential elections.
BW – Stand by for the ‘theater’ in NSW early next year and see how closely the media push baird for undertakings to never ever increase the GST in the run up to the March election.
[ The game plan is to drive the states into debt and desperation and have them force the issue onto an ‘unwilling’ federal coalition government.
The states then take the ‘blame’. ]
[ WeWantPaul
Posted Thursday, December 18, 2014 at 9:42 am | Permalink
I don’t think Abbott was all that good ]
He was most effective when he just shut up, which wasn’t for long.
He just cannot help himself. Hope all those who voted for him are happy now.
Abbott is dong an interview with Hadley as we speak.
Not learnt anything. He needs to go on ABC radio, SBS etc not his usual friendly outlets when the issue under discussion means not many attacking questions can be asked.
victoria
They’re saying the Napthine government were a shonky lot who ignored financial logic to try to to push through their roads preference in Infrastructure and tried to keep the shonky figures secret. This rubs off on Abbott who we guess went along with it without studying the detail.
But they are warning Andrews that solving it all is going to be financially difficult. I think, considering their editorial backed Napthine before the election, they’re doing a bit of a backdown on their support for the Coalition.
Oh dear
Not sure that is the best thing to say
@latikambourke: PM Abbott says he mixed up interviewer’s name on live television because he was hungover, according to host: http://t.co/rHFF8Hn0Gh
If anyone is in desperate need for an emetic………
Something to put you off breakfast.
[Bishop’s stunning photo shoot
FOREIGN Minister Julie Bishop has appeared in her most glamorous photograph yet, showing off her impressive figure and impeccable sense of style. ……….Ms Bishop used the shoot to deliver a serious message about the gender divide in Canberra: “I wish there were more women in Cabinet. I think women make a great contribution to discussions; they offer a different perspective.”]
http://www.perthnow.com.au/entertainment/books/julie-bishop-looks-stunning-in-who-magazine-shoot/story-fnhod202-1227160162662
lizzie
Thanks for your observation. I also felt that the Age were attempting to rationalise their initial support for Napthine and the east west link project
Poroti
I am no expert on good looks, but JBishop is a very unsympathetic looking person
“@davrosz: So much easier to understand Abbott’s repeated gaffes now. He was just plastered!”
Abbott and Hadley are a perfect fit: both loud narcissistic morons. They’d see their interviews like they were each looking in the mirror.
g
I thought he looked crook.
guytaur:
That was more a reveal by Kochie than an admission by Abbott.
[Ms Bishop used the shoot to deliver a serious message about the gender divide in Canberra]
Hmm. Still distancing herself from Abbott.
guytaur
The “Grog-monster” back ?
poroti
JBishop does ‘Look at Moi!’
But the polishers do not have a whole lot with which to work.
So, did we nearly end up being at war with Russia coz Abbott was pissed?
confessions
Yes a reveal about what Abbott said. Reminds me of the Yes Minister episode with the tape when Hacker thought he was off air though obvious difference of course/
Hi jenauthor
Trust all is well?
Some people reckon that the whole ‘Chris’ thing was because Abbott was distracted by his Scrot Rot.
jenauthor:
Long time no see. HOpe you’ve been well.