A heavy duty result from Newspoll this weeks activates some serious movement in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with Labor up a full point on two-party preferred and the better part of 2% on the primary vote. The model is particularly impressed that Newspoll should have Labor’s primary vote as high as 39%, given its traditional tendency to track a little low in Newspoll. This leaves less of the vote for each of the Coalition, the Greens and Palmer United, with the latter once again in the position of recording a new post-election low.
On the seat projection, Labor gains a seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia to reach 83 seats, which is as many as it won in 2007. Bill Shorten has also shot to the lead as preferred prime minister, although you would want to see that corroborated by another pollster. Shorten’s net approval rating remains just below parity, where it has sat with remarkable consistency since the correction over New Year that ended his initial honeymoon period. Tony Abbott on the other hand is back on a downward trajectory, putting his net approval rating back to where it had plateaued following the MH17 disaster, before the second spike in his favour as domestic terrorism concerns dominated the agenda in mid-September.
GG
Napthine seems like a decent guy, as does Andrews.
Actually Baird and BOF also seem to be good guys.
Newman on the other hand….
Oh, plus rising unemployment. That wont help a bit.
Tha ABC could get rid of all their self promotions and save a fortune in marketing expenses.
lizzie
Yes i did. Napthine said it was too expensive for this town to source the water from the desal plant
kakaru
[I love the ABC; these days it’s the only network I watch (aside from SBS occasionally). But I actually would not be too sad to see ABC24 be cut. It’s just plain boring. Any politics-related program worth watching is on ABC1 anyway.]
I am with you and there are no ads.
[81
victoria
davidwh
Paris is likely to succeed. China needs clean air for its citizens and the US has been hammered by extreme weather over the past few years.]
As well, India is intent on electrifying its villages and farms. The technology exists to do this using solar generation, so we can look forward to China, India, the US and EU all being on the same path within just a few years.
The Paris meeting should be seen as an event that ratifies the technology and investment choices of the market. Abbott seems (at last) to understand that this is inevitable. He can hardly be seen to stand in opposition to almost every other voice. By this time next year, only Saudi Arabia will be opposing action on climate change. In their case, it will be an appeal for a subsidy to continue pollution.
As well, it’s highly likely that Abbott has had the feedback from opinion monitoring thru APEC and G20. There will be one unifying theme – he is completely out of touch on climate issues.
If Abbott wants to revive his political stocks, he could do a lot worse than to become a climate activist. The rest of us might want to vomit, but it would do his popularity the world of good.
Napthine wont be happy with his colleagues making ABC cuts the issue this week. Doubt Abbott would be so nasty to his NSW counterparts
Further to my post at 100:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/former-labor-minister-ian-macdonald-facing-prosecution-over-doyles-creek-mine-deal-20141120-11qbch.html
Briefly
Abbott will need to do a backflip with a triple pike
victoria@85
The negative ads from the libs have been in overdrive. Have seen so many of them as compared to team Labor.
The reason for the imbalance in the source of election ads is that the Liberals have a very large war chest ($10 million allegedly), a lot of which is provided by developers, of course. The conservatives can almost always outspend Labor when it comes to election advertising.
I note that the ALP secretary was recently reported as saying that the recent polling indicating a Labor win had led to a late rush of money to the ALP – they had got more money in the preceding week than for the rest of the campaign.
GG
I’m wondering if William taking over from Antony Green might be a cost cutting measure in the mix.
MTBW,
Wasn’t McDonald a Member of the Faulkner Faction in the NSW left?
Can’t trust those left wingers in NSW.
victoria and briefly
I’m sure that Abbott is so power-hungry that he may well have a Damascus moment if he thinks he’ll lose the leadership or the 2016 election.
1. But will we believe him?
2. The Libs will lose Big donations.
I’d love to be a fly on the wall while the arguments rage 😉
PB could do the political analysis for the ABC. Just amalgamate a few posts into an article and get rid of The Drum.
GG
Nice to see that you are still being a smart arse!
You are wrong Faulkner was a member of the soft left and MacDonald was in Albo’s faction the hard left.
Do try harder!
[They could trim Ray Phillips, GB Hogg, Terry Alderman and Wayne Clark off the cricket commentary.]
You really hate WA don’t you. You could have only Hoggy and the WA guys do all the cricket commentary.
It would certainly be hilarious to watch Abbott tie a green bandana on.
Irony no longer dead: with a bolt through its neck and 10000V solar charge, it walks!
Diogs,
I don’t think letting the PB commentariat loose on the National Broadcaster was what the Government had in mind with their never ending attempts to skewer the ABC
Well PB has the educational side down nailed down.
Grammar lessons with Fran Barlow,
MTBW,
Nice to see you applying all that Charm School education you are always telling PBers you received.
So this division in the left in NSW, is it policy based or personality based?
guytaur,
You’d become a star with your Diary secretary routine.
People would be enthralled as you po facedly announce that the Kogarah Under 15 RL fixture has just been released.
GG
You wouldn’t know what charm is if it hit you in the face.
[So this division in the left in NSW, is it policy based or personality based?]
I really wouldn’t know I never joined a faction.
WWP
Terry alderman would not be a loss. A PhD in the art of staying the bleeding obvious.
WWP
Not at all. Did you hear them on the weekend? It could not have been more boring especially when Terry started telling us about his discussions with his golf mates.
They could also get rid of Geoff Lawson if he was still on. I will add Tim Nielson as well, now, come to think of it.
I love WA Karen Tighe (born in Sydney, of course). It is a shame Glen Mitchell is not still on.
[109
victoria
Briefly
Abbott will need to do a backflip with a triple pike]
I wouldn’t rule it out.
The LNP are cruising for defeat in 2016. They will be asking what they can do to turn things around. Climate change is about energy policy. In the end it is not only about emissions, it will be about driving down energy costs as well as economic growth. There is just no doubt that solar technologies can deliver almost-free electricity and that the installation/distribution costs can also be driven to very low levels.
It is recognition of this that is driving energy markets at the moment. Oil, gas and coal prices are all in decline as producers step up their production, hoping to turn their reserves into cash while they still can.
We are already seeing the decline of the seaborne coal trade. We will not see another jumbo gas project financed and built in Australia. Some analysts have forecast the price per barrel of oil will be back in the $30’s before long.
Abbott would be mad to turn his back on this. He may not want to change his fiscal or social stance, and doubtless wants to 457 the labour market. But he can kick a lot of uncontested goals on climate policy of he chooses.
[In a statement, the Independent Commission Against Corruption announced a court attendance notice was served on Mr Macdonald on Thursday on the advice of the NSW director of public prosecutions.]
He deserved a Roger Rogerson style arrest not the equivalent of what you would get for your pet pooing on the beach.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/former-labor-minister-ian-macdonald-facing-prosecution-over-doyles-creek-mine-deal-20141120-11qbch.html#ixzz3JZ0L3LsO
GG
I see you are still into denigration and bullying.
[I love WA Karen Tighe (born in Sydney, of course). It is a shame Glen Mitchell is not still on.]
Mr Tighe does a fantastic talk on recognizing and dealing with depression and suggested he might write a book on what happened but not while Karen is still at the ABC
Good ABC expplainer on why Obama can in fact cut emissions without having Congress onboard.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-18/hockey-overstating-congress-obama-emissions-pledge-fact-check/5891034
[You wouldn’t know what charm is if it hit you in the face.]
Weird idea of what constitutes charm…
“He broke my nose and split my lip…such a charming man.”
corio
Will be interesting to see if Labor are able to crank up the advertising between now and election
MTBW,
We are all thankful that you endlessly devote your time to educating your fellow PBers. Such a worthy yet thankless task.
I’m certain that the influence of your vision of charm is demonstrated through the quality of your posts here on PB.
WWP
Yes – his ability to address any subject well, including his own health, is not surpising.
[The LNP are cruising for defeat in 2016. They will be asking what they can do to turn things around. Climate change is about energy policy. In the end it is not only about emissions, it will be about driving down energy costs as well as economic growth. There is just no doubt that solar technologies can deliver almost-free electricity and that the installation/distribution costs can also be driven to very low levels.
It is recognition of this that is driving energy markets at the moment. Oil, gas and coal prices are all in decline as producers step up their production, hoping to turn their reserves into cash while they still can.
We are already seeing the decline of the seaborne coal trade. We will not see another jumbo gas project financed and built in Australia. Some analysts have forecast the price per barrel of oil will be back in the $30′s before long.
Abbott would be mad to turn his back on this. He may not want to change his fiscal or social stance, and doubtless wants to 457 the labour market. But he can kick a lot of uncontested goals on climate policy of he chooses.]
All true and is why the ALP should make the running: promise MUCH cheaper power in the mid-term through renewables growth, and be the first major to head out beyond the 5% on 2000 framework.
Guytaur,
Au contraire!
I am expressing the most positive analysis one could possibly make of your hobby. You could turn your personal fetish in to a media career. Don’t miss the opportunity when it arises.
“@political_alert: Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen will hold a brief doorstop in Sydney at 2.15pm to discuss last night’s vote on financial advice laws #auspol”
GG
No need to be thankful I just stick to my values and don’t need to denigrate.
You may need to go to confession again.
[Yes – his ability to address any subject well, including his own health, is not surpising.]
His detailed telling of dropping his son at school on the day he intended to finish up almost brings me to tears just thinking about it.
GG
No you are implying I cannot think. You are a bully that is it.
Don’t like the posts scroll past. Stop being a bully.
MTBW,
Why do you always revert to gratuitous bigotry?
It’s not particularly charming.
GG
Change the record it is getting very old and worn.
guytaur,
I am not responsible for your insecurities.
GG
You are responsible for your bullying
This is the sort of stuff that inspires Abbott and his cronies.
http://www.salon.com/2014/11/19/house_republicans_just_passed_a_bill_forbidding_scientists_from_advising_the_epa_on_their_own_research/
MTBW,
Actually it is quite pertinent. You claim to write to your values and not deenigrate. Then throw in a gratuitous comment about “confession” which has no relevance to anything I’m posting.
So, a legitimate conclusion might be that you really are a bigot and lack the self control to prevent yourself blurting it out in a public form.
Citizen – re Macca ABC
I once politely asked the ABC to get rid of Macca. Something along the lines of ‘please put him out of his and our misery’. I may have used CAPS….and a few exclamation marks.
They replied that he was important in terms of balance. Needed him to balance Phil Adams etc. Sheesh! I would prefer Amanda Vandstone and Counterpoint going 5 days over Macca on a Sunday.
Personally I would like to see the Drum axed, or at least following on from other suggestions here – any form of reader comment either twitter on Q&A or the ‘Have Your Say’ relating to articles on ABC.net.au.
Axing regional services tickles my spiteful fancy but, of course should not be countenanced. I do not consider Macca a service to regional areas.
On twitter
ABC = Abbott Budget Cuts
[People seem to have made up their minds some time ago. The media always likes to imply elections are close and there is a genuine contest.
They are hoping there is some last minute disaster or swing in public opinion so they can write come back stories.]
They’ve played the Misogynist card, the Debt and Deficit card, the Gillard Criminal card, the Speaker Is A Poof card, the Terrorist card, the Dole Bludger Card, the Boots On The Groud And Planes In The Sky card, the Statesman card, the Climate Denial Card, the Xenophobia card, the Comb Over and Blue Tie card, the Grumpy Joe card, the Royal Commission card and the Bash The ABC card.
All they have left is the Asteroid Card, where Tony saves the world by volunteering the Simpson Desert as the landing place for a monster from the Oort Cloud gone feral.
When things cool down a bit and the dust settles, he can then sell tickets to whatever’s left and tout it as a Black Arm Band-free alternative to Uluru: a Bolide Led Recovery.
GG
It is not”deenigrate” but “denigrate” do try harder.
guytaur,
In recent years you have accused me of, among other things, of being a Nazi, in favour of killing blacks because of deeply held but unexpressed miscegnation and being prepared to bake babies for biscuits.
So, I’ll just add bully to the list.
Do you understand now why no one takes you seriously.
So, I’ll just