A heavy duty result from Newspoll this weeks activates some serious movement in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with Labor up a full point on two-party preferred and the better part of 2% on the primary vote. The model is particularly impressed that Newspoll should have Labor’s primary vote as high as 39%, given its traditional tendency to track a little low in Newspoll. This leaves less of the vote for each of the Coalition, the Greens and Palmer United, with the latter once again in the position of recording a new post-election low.
On the seat projection, Labor gains a seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia to reach 83 seats, which is as many as it won in 2007. Bill Shorten has also shot to the lead as preferred prime minister, although you would want to see that corroborated by another pollster. Shorten’s net approval rating remains just below parity, where it has sat with remarkable consistency since the correction over New Year that ended his initial honeymoon period. Tony Abbott on the other hand is back on a downward trajectory, putting his net approval rating back to where it had plateaued following the MH17 disaster, before the second spike in his favour as domestic terrorism concerns dominated the agenda in mid-September.
corio
I saw an attack ad here on Poll Bludger the other day. Did anyone see it? It had a very unflatering picture of Daniel Andrews on it. Obviously this was paid by the Liberals, but it only stated name and address, not party.
MTBW,
It’s only you, champ.
Hi BK
Are you family with past Adelaide Hills Council elections? I am a little heady by my Ward getting ALL 3 members being of leftish nature this election. Is that particularly notable?
GG
You denigrate and bully a lot. Add to your list as much as you like.
It does not change your behaviour.
Stop the bullying. You will have a more pleasant life.
How unsurprisement the ACCC is taking the CFMEU to Court for “standover tactics”
Raaraa,
A Liberal attack add on PB is a complete waste of money.
If they really want to save money in the ABC, I would suggest merging ABC 1 with 24, and ABC 2 with ABC 3. Put everything else on iView (since many people watch it anyways), and leave the 24/7 news cycle to online streaming.
guytaur,
I have a perfectly pleasant life.
GG
I doubt it greatly. Bullies generally don’t.
“@CliveFPalmer: The @PalmerUtdParty alliance in the Senate with the Motoring Enthusiasts Party remains intact despite some reports to the contrary #auspol”
guytaur,
Well, perhaps I’m not a bully then.
Anyways, off to earn a living. That’s something you probably don’t know much about.
Bushfire
Not the Simpson desert please. I am planning a trip out there next year and would hate to crest a dune and find Abbott there stating at the sky.
GG
See more denigration.
rossmcg 162
look at it as an opportunity to talk truth to power.
From William’s blurb:
[domestic terrorism concerns dominated the agenda in mid-September.]
Yes, they certainly did.
I am so glad we got rid of the carbon price so I can now pay even more for electricity….
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-20/sa-power-prices-continue-to-soar/5905560
I had noticed how bullish the powerline tree trimming has been recently….seems it has hip pocket consequences.
GG and Guytaur you do realise you don’t always have to get the last word in?
davidwh
🙂
Simon Katich
Re AHC elections.
There are only 2 Greens Party members in the entire council I think. The pretty much failed “Back to Basics” collection only got one councillor up – Val Hall, a long serving member.
The two re-elected councillors from our ward have no political allegience.
Yeah, thatd be because power price rises had very little to do with the CO2 price.
The ALP should tackle and own this. Our distribution network costs are ridiculous in this country.
BK
All three from Mt Lofty Ward that got in explicitly denounced the “back to Basics” group and effectively ran a combined campaign against them. For simplicity I called them leftish but yes, two of them did not identify an allegiance.
Nathan Daniels, of the Greens (secretary of SA Greens?) is the one of the three who had a clear allegiance.
I was particularly fond of the ‘back to basics’ group photo with one of them kitted out in full CFS gear….just in case we didnt bother to read his bio.
GG
[A Liberal attack add on PB is a complete waste of money.]
I take it it was just part of the Crikey ads on rotation, but I saw it while I was here.
[Our distribution network costs are ridiculous in this country.]
That they are. But it won’t be long before the network is radically re-made.
Communications networks made the leap from medium-bound signals to digitised medium-independent signals in the 80s. Power systems are next, with the leap being from power delivery to energy transportation.
In the (not too distant) future, there will be a large-scale shift to DC, by which I mean more DC loads (LED lights? Power over USB in your house?), power electronics and DC microgrids. When this happens, the AC network will become a medium for transporting energy, not supplying power — power will be provided close to loads using local generation and storage. As such, the networks’ operating standards will be able to be lowered (e.g. frequency and voltage limitations), and costs should drop commensurately.
Trust me, it’s not too far away 😉
Did this get a run yesterday? Jericho on value of the free trade agreement with China….he does some analysis on the benefits of the 2004 US FTA.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-19/jericho-free-market-talk-with-keynesian-action/5901800
Hi all,
something else to look forward to at the next election, Joe Ashton has a column on the back page of the AFR today.
Apparently Warren Truss is keen to retire at the next election.
Which of course would mean a new leader for the Nationals.
We could have PM Abbot and DPM Barnaby campaigning in 2 years time.
[We could have PM Abbot and DPM Barnaby campaigning in 2 years time.]
PB’ers can be cruel and heartless at times 🙁
Watching the Senate Estimates Committee discussing the NBN I thought I should check the NBN rollout map. All I learned from that experience was that there was no plan yet releaded for my area.
So I rang the office of my Federal MP – the lugubrious Jamie Briggs – to be told that NBN have pulled back from telling the punters anything until their rollouts are imminent. She bagged the previous NBN of course. She then gave me an 1800 number to call NBN direct, which I did.
A lovely lady there could tell me no more. I asked if they had determined the type of delivery would be used in my area but of course I got the same reply. She suggested I subscribe to the NBN email newsletter which, I presume, will periodically advise the same zero information.
I finished the call saying that I hope I at least find out before I die.
[134
lefty e
All true and is why the ALP should make the running: promise MUCH cheaper power in the mid-term through renewables growth, and be the first major to head out beyond the 5% on 2000 framework.]
Yup.
They should advocate turning the DA fund into a technology development and adoption fund. They should be calling for a much-increased RE target and an ambitious 80% cut in emissions by 2035.
They should promise to re-work the ETS and fuel excise regimes, so that tax taken rises with emissions intensity and its reach extends beyond transport fuels to electricity generation. We now have the ridiculous situation where vehicle emissions are taxed but electricity-related emissions are not. This should be reformed.
As well, they should tie this to the eventual repeal of the excise rebates now paid for off-road diesel use.
This will make energy tax into a quasi-copy of the GST and drive both consumption and investment into low emissions energy sources right across the economy.
Once solar electrification reaches critical scale all kinds of other economic benefits will be realisable. This should be made very explicit.
For example, as battery technologies also improve, it will become possible to electrify vehicle fleets. Cars and buses will become much lighter, much cheaper, more compact, almost completely recyclable, very cheap to run, and cheaper to maintain and repair; they will also be smart, have driver-less capability and be able to operate as a robotic, networked resource.
This has the potential to change urban life in very far-reaching ways. We should be able to de-congest urban transport without making absurd and self-defeating mega investments in freeways.
Cars could be cheap enough to be a generic for-hire fleet, meaning we will not need to own as many cars, but will be able to make much better use of (very cheap and easily replaced) shared vehicles and integrate them with mass-transit systems. This has the potential to radically change real household incomes.
briefly
Such a system of cars would also drastically increase transport options for those on low incomes especially the disabled that are priced out at the moment.
Uber gives a glimpse into how this could work
173
Libertarian Unionist
The distribution network is the major useful asset in the existing energy set-up. Once generation becomes diffusely distributed, the network will become even more valuable and tech-rich.
179
guytaur
Absolutely. The future is already arriving in some cities. Our energy and transport infrastructure is about to become obsolete.
guytaur@179
Uber is a piece of shyte
BK – I am trying to build a house in the Hills and want to have the comms connections NBN ready. Finding out information on what sort of NBN is coming and when would be very useful. I got the same run around. I have heard through some other channels that this area is no longer a priority. Thanks Jamie, I hope whoever runs against him in two years time makes a deal of it.
briefly,
[The distribution network is the major useful asset in the existing energy set-up. Once generation becomes diffusely distributed, the network will become even more valuable and tech-rich.]
Yes and no. The term being thrown around now is “grids with intelligent perhiphery”.
There will still be utility scale generation, e.g. wind and solar farms, particularly if passenger transport becomes significantly electrified and/or gas’ use is significantly reduced for heating and cooking. so both trans and dist networks will still be heavily employed.
Moreover, these large generation plants will be integrated with large-scale medium- to long-term storage options to handle week to seasonal variations in renewable energy availability, such as hydrogen storage, which require scale to be economic.
But yes, the networks will “suffer” from increased capital utilisation, meaning that their peak use will be reduced so that they cost less to operate per unit of energy moved, all because the requisite \emph{power} will be delivered locally.
ha, sorry for the latex switch 😉
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/20/abc-climate-change-the-coalition-is-drowning-us-in-nonsense?CMP=soc_567
Nice headline.
But look at the next bit…
[“In opposition, authenticity and truth-telling was the focus.’]
Huh?
What country is she talking about ..’ authenticity and truth-telling …”?
OK the article then gets back to reality – the next sentence is:
[“Now it’s all denials and broken promises”]
Strange person.
[As distasteful as it is to defend Senator Ronaldson on the charge of AC/DC ignorance, this is what he actually said, according to Hansard:]
That is NOT what he said. I saw him live – he said “Dirty Tricks Done Dirt Cheap”.
I don’t care what Hansard states.
FedEx
Yeah that was a curious piece. Abbott was making promises in opposition he would never be able to keep and knew he would never be able to keep but he was “authentic” so no journalist was ever brave enough to confront him and his lying mates.
Now they feign surprise, and even dismay, when their hero is found to have feet of clay.
[I don’t care what Hansard states.]
2 friends of mine were making an expert submission to a parliamentary enquiry when one of the pollies made a comment, one of my friends responded, then the pollie, my friend again and then Chair of the committee shut that bit down and they continued on back on the topic at hand.
When the transcript came out the little contretemps had been disappeared, it wasn’t there.
So one of my friends pursued the matter – officially.
It was then included.
I went into a deep sleep caused by mention of Macca on Sundays. Now I have woken up, I’d like to know why everyone is recommending a lot of the ABC streaming online. The download speeds at my house are so slow (1 second downloaded/several seconds wating) that I cannot watch video links. The real broadband would have arrived in the never-never anyway.
Are these recommendations all made by people with access to fast broadband?
[45
DisplayName
>I wonder if the Coalition have reached peak Orwell, or could it possibly get worse.
It’s almost definitely going to get worse.]
The fun will really start when it finally starts to dawn of them that they really have blown it and that Rupert can’t save them. At which point, being a bunch of spoiled adolescent shitheads, they will run a scorched earth policy, leaving one hell of a mess for the next government to clean up.
Given the ever louder sound of Liberal supporters’ head exploding across the land, I suspect that time is not too far away.
rossmcg at #188
Exactly.
I was going to try and say that but the words wouldn’t come and I would never had said it as clearly as you have.
Simon Katich
As a representative our Jamie Briggs is worse than a waste of space.
GG
I posted a response to the article you posted in the Victorian thread.
184
Libertarian Unionist
It’s a veritable moving feast, LU.
guytaur @179
I missed the context, but that solution seems like it might cause further congestion on the roads.
Though as briefly mentioned, if all people driven cars are replaced by self-driving technology, it will efficiently use up all that road space.
BK – he is representative of something….just not his electorate.
I look forward to him nearly losing at the next election.
[182
Yesiree Bob
guytaur@179
briefly
Uber gives a glimpse into how this could work
Uber is a piece of shyte]
From what point of view, YB? I’ve only heard good things about it from users here in Perth.
lizzie 190
Sorry to have mentioned M on a S M.
I hope it was a restful sleep.
LU
[Moreover, these large generation plants will be integrated with large-scale medium- to long-term storage options to handle week to seasonal variations in renewable energy availability, such as hydrogen storage, which require scale to be economic.]
Speaking of H2, one rather whimsical idea that I’ve never been able to lose interest in is the potential use of electrolytic cracking of water to isolate H2 for the purpose of fuelling Internal combustion engines.
There are very significant constraints on use of fuel cell H2 vehicles. The fuel cells are even more expensive than batteries and of course you’d need a massive delivery system for the H2. It’s classic chicken and egg because mass production of vehicles won’t take place if there aren’t ways of easily refuelling vehicles. Also, H2 is really slippery and embrittles metals. A fuel tank is going to leak H2 all the time, so you probably want to match fuel to usage in a given time window. Piping the stuff would be very expensive.
On the other hand, if you created it ‘on the fly’ from stored water then all you need is a cracking and supply device, which you could run from mains power. Providing the mains are decarbonised you could fill your ICE vehicle with only as much H2 as you were going to use in 24 hours. Direct injection engines using H2 produce more power than their equivalent petrol cousins and you could have a much smaller lighter engine per unit of power. Range is very good. The weight of the vehicle’s fuel store compares very well with batteries. While substantial modifications to existing ICEs would be entailed, the change is much less than switching to mass battery production. I can easily imagine road transport and bus depots refuelling their heavy vehicles this way. Perhaps large housing complexes could make the technology available to their tenants or title holders.
And unlike standard petroleum ICEs, tailpipe emissions are simply H20.