Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland

With the next election looming ever closer, the Queensland government cops one of its worst polls since coming to office – on voting intention at least.

The Courier-Mail brings us a Galaxy poll of 800 respondents, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it’s the Newman government’s worst result from the ten Galaxy polls conducted since it came to office. Labor leads on the primary vote by 38% (up two since August) to 37% (down two), with the Greens up two to 9% and Palmer United down five to 7%. This comes out as 50-50 on two-party preferred, compared with a Liberal National Party lead of 52-48 last time. Despite that, Campbell Newman’s is up five on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 51%, and his lead as preferred Premier is up from 42-41 to 47-37. Annastacia Palaszczuk is at 37% on both approval and disapproval, which is respectively down two and up two. The poll also finds a steady growth of support for the government’s anti-bikie laws, from 48% in February to 56% in May to 60%, with opposition declining from 45% to 36% to 33%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

18 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland”

  1. Kevin Bonham pointed out last night that the Courier Mail front page is “Nod for Newman”

    So Newman wins approx 63-37 in 2012, and in 2014 a poll shows him at 50-50, and the Courier-Mail says “Premier, we’ve got good and bad news”

    Apparently the good news is that Newman’s popularity is up! But on these figures he will lose his own seat of Ashgrove fairly comfortably I would imagine. Maybe if he stays really popular he could continue as LNP Party Leader from outside the Parliament.

  2. Sad that it’s such a hard hurdle for Labor to get rid of one of the worst governments in Australian history.

    Not that Newman and co aren’t doing their best to make that dream a reality.

  3. That 2PP result looks to me to flatter the LNP based on those primaries.

    Using the following assumptions:
    Greens voters: 40% exhaust, continuing preferences 80/20 to ALP
    All others: 50% exhaust, continuing preferences 60/40 to LNP

    I get a 2PP of just better than 51/49 for ALP.

    Even adjusting the Greens rate to be the same as last election – 45% exhaust, continuing 70/30 to ALP – gets just under 51/49 for ALP, and I would suspect that the ALP would do a little better from Greens preferences this time.

  4. Using the extreme values for rounding, and use the less-good-to-ALP assumptions I can get a figure that just rounds down to 50-50.

  5. I mean, how exactly do you get ALP primary up, Greens primary up, LNP primary down, PUP primary down, KAP steady translate to a 2 point reduced 2PP for the ALP?

    Those ‘Others’ (Up 3) must be massive fans of the LNP… or there’s a mistake.

  6. Whoops sorry, ignore that last post; obviously was reading the post the wrong way – it’s a 2 point gain for the ALP, which makes sense.

    But the earlier point remains that it looks very much to me like 50+ to ALP on even the worst case rounding for the PV figures.

  7. Could it be possible that the Newman govt could be turfed out after one term?
    Given they had what, 80 odd members to 9 for labor IIRC then it is incredible to even contemplate it.

  8. A bit old now, but for whatever its worth see this article on LNP internal polling.
    [Operation Boring leading to surprise comeback for Campbell
    October 29, 2014
    Madonna King

    Campbell Newman has staged a surprising personal comeback; voters refuse to warm to him, but believe he should be given another go at the next election.

    It is understood that is one of many findings of private LNP research conducted both in Ashgrove, and on Brisbane’s south-side.

    It is understood the polling – conducted in four tranches less than a month ago – was done to gauge the ongoing damage of the Stafford by-election on both the premier’s personal standing and the party’s fortunes ahead of the next election.

    The economy, job security and wages, cost of living, security/crime and frontline services topped the list of voters’ concerns, with the Government’s “leasing” argument taking the sting out of privatisation plans.


    But the latest research, conducted in marginal Brisbane seats with groups of swinging voters, also highlights three significant problems for the LNP Government.]

  9. would have loved to have been at Wayne Goss’ send-off today. Loved this quote from Wayne Swan, his 1989 campaign director.

    “As Wayne told a function to mark the 10th anniversary of the election of his government … ‘history records I was a great premier brought down by bad advice, so it’s really good to be here with all my advisers’,

    Read more:

  10. Leroy Lynch@16

    A bit old now, but for whatever its worth see this article on LNP internal polling.

    Thanks for posting that; further evidence that a lot of “internal polling” releases are actually strategically motivated bulldust.

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