The Herald-Sun brings us a Victorian election poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, providing us with the first statewide result from a polling period more recent than the Sunday before last. The Galaxy poll of 924 respondents has Labor leading 52-48, which you can either interpet as indicating no change since the last Galaxy poll three weeks ago, which had the same result, or a slight narrowing in Labor’s lead given the general tendency of early campaign polling to come in higher than that, and the pollster’s general lack of a clear house bias. On the primary vote, Labor is up a point to 39%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 40% and 13%.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan’s third SMS poll of the campaign offers a dose of cold water for that glimmer of hope I referred to in the post header. The poll was conducted from 1042 respondents over the last two nights, and it finds Labor’s lead up to 55-45 from 53.5-46.5 from the last poll, which was conducted from Friday to Monday of the week before last. The poll’s hard-to-credit vote for the Greens has gone still higher, from 18.5% to 19.5%, with both major parties down on the primary vote: Labor by half a point to 35.5%, the Coalition by three to 35%. This would seem to be partly to do with a change in the question structure to include the Australian Sex Party among the response options, which comes in at 3%.
I took the Bludgertrack Victoria changes since last election (approx) and plugged them, into Antony Greens LC calculators this way:
Coalition -5.5%, ALP +2.5% and Greens +3%.
I may have mistyped somewhere but my totals were:
Coalition 16, ALP 19, Greens 3 and Australian Country Alliance 2!
Sounds of the order of about right. That would give an ALP or Coalition government a few options if they are not a minority government.
bug1 from the previous thread
Thanks for your numbers. I think you might have given the PUP in Western Vic a bit too high of a vote. A recent polling showed the PUP getting about 2% in Vic, and I think this is concentrated in the metropolitan suburbs.
Why is ‘Lord’ Monckton buzzing about down here? Has he come to help Napthine?
lizzie,
Maybe to counter David Attenborough.
Just nature keeping a balance in the park of British celebrities telling us how to run our lives.
And the funniest thing is that he isn’t a Lord anyway. He is “Viscount” Monckton – he tried to get in the House of Lords and was knocked back. I can’t believe that no-one in the media can find this out and call him by his correct title.
Raaraa, yes i might be over-estimating PUP, its hard to put a number on them.
I calculated their W.Vic vote based on the federal election to be 4%, higher than the statewide average of 3.6%
I rejected using a value based on that number because of recent events, their internal dramas (Jacqui Lambie) could make them irrelevant.
For those interested, ABC774 is talking about vic state election, and which seats are vulnerable etc. Also will be talking about the upgrading of the bushfire threat this summer
http://www.abc.net.au/melbourne/
Paul Strangio from Monash who was just interviewed on ABC radio, says the Abbott factor is playing into the state election
carrum, mordialloc to alp. Frankston and bentleigh still 50:50. Melbourne to go to the greens. The greens to overtake alp in prahran, but libs to just hold on. All other seats status quo – notional seats that changed will go back to original claimants 2010. My smoky is the morwell area..could go anywhere.
A British viscount is addressed in speech as Lord [X].
They are addressing him correctly, which doesn’t make him any less of a crackpot.
[carrum, mordialloc to alp. Frankston and bentleigh still 50:50. Melbourne to go to the greens. The greens to overtake alp in prahran, but libs to just hold on. All other seats status quo – notional seats that changed will go back to original claimants 2010. My smoky is the morwell area..could go anywhere.]
so is that ALP with at least a 1 seat majority with a green seat as a buffer? I think there might be some some changes in regional area (Bellarine, Rippon, ballarat seats) that means the ALP needs to win more metro seats. at the end of the day, I think the libs could do a SA ALP and hold gov with 48-49% of the TPP. the upper house is scarier – I can see a napthine government beholden to rise up australia, DLP or similar – and there are enough fellow travellers with the libs (e.g. that Bernie dickhead Finn character) for them to do some very socially and environmentally regressive stuff.
I think andrews has started to cut through with the public and being seen as keen, earnest and likable in a Bracks sort of way (he comes across as the sort of slightly dorky bloke that keeps the local sports club going through selfless volunteer effort). Napthine is looking old and dufferish. the napthine campaign has been negative, and they’ll go all out this week. Andrews seems to be playing very fair – too fair. I would have thought a campaign “Only Victorian Labor can stop Abbott’s planned GST hike” would have been good for about 10 seats. (have they run that? I think they must be confident in my seat as I’ve seen very little from them). If andrews gets over the line I think he’ll be premier for as long as he wants to be – Vic is a labor state and the ALP must/should be kicking themselves for choosing Brumby instead of Thwaites.
I’d dearly love to see Baillieu do a Rudd and tip a bucket of bile (& matter from further down the digestive tract) on them during this last week – perhaps he could say what role Ryan really played in the Overland affair).
GG:
[Maybe to counter David Attenborough.
Just nature keeping a balance in the park of British celebrities telling us how to run our lives.]
I’ve got nothing against David Attenborough telling us how to run our lives. His message is simply, “Don’t let your fauna and flora go extinct.”
At the other end of the spectrum, “Lord” Monckton is a pest.
Looking more like a narrow ALP win. Still hoping for a couple of Green lower house wins, and BOP in the LC but who really knows if that’ll happen.
Nearly time for the only poll that matters.
The “only poll that matters” has already started. I’ll be attending my electorate’s early voting centre shortly to cast my two ballots.
Not taking it as gospel but friend of a friend in LIB HQ stuff tells me that they are more confident in the past week as the “Don’t Trust Him/Them” stuff is starting to bite
This election will be decided by the undecideds that make up their mind in the last week/days/on the spot
They’re obviously maintaining morale at conservative HQ, but the polls haven’t budged for weeks
Morgan SMS 55-45.
ALP 35.5 L-NP 35 Green 19.5 Sex 3 FF 2 Other/Ind 5
Andrews 52.5 – Napthine 47.5
Sample size 1042. Nov 19-20.
Hard to take these things seriously when they have such a massive and obvious skew to the Greens.
Two possible bolters
Albert Park and Box Hill
Albert Park is the only ALP seat (besides Ripon) I can see the Liberals winning, the Liberals have a presentable candidate and now Elwood has been removed, the ALP may be challenged.
Looking at the polls there doesn’t seem to be an anti-government swing on, there does appears to be some movement from the ALP to the Greens which may lead to some surprises such as Albert Park.
Box Hill might be on a 9% margin but according to William’s seat guide, at the last federal election, the Liberals only won with 52%, it will swing against the Liberals as they don’t normally win the Box Hill booths.
I never thought of Elwood as a stalwart ALP voting booth.
Both Elwood booths do look like Liberal booths but they are surprisingly strong ALP booths, its part of the reason the ALP have kept hold on Melbourne Ports.
The Liberals vote generally just suck across the former city of St Kilda.
Albert Park (the suburb) used to be homes for people working on the docks and industries in the area (being near Port Melbourne). The houses may have rised up in value into the Millions but some of the working class families never left.
The booths around Albert Park, Middle Park and increasingly South Melbourne are fast becoming marginal 50-50 booths, its interesting for if you never looked at the booth results you would think that the ALP were strongest in Albert Park/Middle Park and weaker in Elwood but the results tell us something different.
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The biggest reason that the ALP hold Melbourne Ports so strongly is that Michel Danby gets a significantly higher vote in Caulfield compared to the state ALP candidates (he has one of the biggest personal votes in urban Australia).
The low Liberal vote in the former City of St Kilda is also why the ALP and the Greens are competitive in Prahran.
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There is significant population growth in Southbank, South Melbourne and Port Melbourne and the new voters a greater tendency to vote Liberal compared to existing residents of the seat. This is why the Albert Park district was decreased in size in the election, because it was significantly over quota, which the rest of Southern Metro was well under quota (apart from Prahran which was at about quota).
The ALP loosing Albert Park to the Liberals would represent a big shift from when they held the seat throughout the Bolte government. Port Melbourne (abolished 1958) was an ALP seat as well.
The growth in Southbank. Port Melbourne, and such other places is going to continue, especially with Fishermans Bend starting. Eventually a new seat will be needed in that area.
Coalition out to $5.35. Labor on $5.15
Sorry Labor on $1.15 !
FLASHBACK – just been reading some of the 2010 Victorian election-eve Pollbludger, and election live results blog. Some stuff I remember, but even some prescient PBers predicting Baillieu being knifed in first term – the night before he was elected!
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/26/nielsen-52-48-to-coalition-in-victoria/?comment_page=1/#comments
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/27/victorian-election-live-2/?comment_page=1/#comments
Fascinating stuff. Thanks William for archiving all this.
Rocket Rocket@28
On sports.betfair.com
ALP $1.2 Fibs $5.6
slightly tighter odds – but no arb.
[Box Hill might be on a 9% margin but according to William’s seat guide, at the last federal election, the Liberals only won with 52%, it will swing against the Liberals as they don’t normally win the Box Hill booths.]
Mexican, I doubt Box Hill will be a bolter. Every seat that I have looked at on William’s guide has the ALP doing better in Fed13 rather Vic10. In Fed 13, Box Hill was split between Kooying (safe Lib) and Deakin (highly marginal), and in 2010, the eastern end of Box Hill was the western end of marginal Mitcham. The ALP will not put the resources into Box Hill that they put into Mitcham or Deakin, and more resources does equal more votes. Box Hill would be winnable for the ALP in a landslide and would have most likely been won in 2002 on the current boundaries.
[The growth in Southbank. Port Melbourne, and such other places is going to continue, especially with Fishermans Bend starting. Eventually a new seat will be needed in that area.]
Tom, agree. With the population growth in the north, it would appear that Albert Park will move out of St Kilda and get better for the Libs. I could imagine – even possibly at the next redistribution that Prahran would move south west into St Kilda and be centred on Windsor. This would be a seat that the Libs would find hard to win and where the Greens would have a real chance.
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From its 1945 creation until the Abolition of the safe Liberal seat of Balwyn in the 1992 redistribution, Box Hill had been a marginal seat and had been held by the ALP when in government and the Liberals when the ALP was not.
With the low population growth in the inner-east (likely to continue under current planning rules, if the ALP does not change them) it is gradually heading back to the more marginal east.
32
It is possible that Prahran would gain more around St Kilda and Malvern would take up more of Toorak. However at some point there is going to be a new seat created between Albert Park and the Yarra because of the growth in Southbank, Port Melbourne and Fishermans Bend and this will push Albert Park Prahran back east.
Gaining left territory is only good for the Greens if they can get or stay ahead of the ALP or overtake the Liberals. Otherwise it is bad.
[With the low population growth in the inner-east (likely to continue under current planning rules, if the ALP does not change them) it is gradually heading back to the more marginal east.]
This may well be true over current years but is unlikely to occur between now and November 29!
35
That is correct. A redistribution is not due for 7 years.
Tom @ 34
Unless Albert Park or Phahran were to be abolished, there is no chance of a new seat between Albert Park and the Yarra. Enrolment growth just does not happen that fast. There will be growth for sure and Albert Park will contract northwards to take up that growth. The major game player would be if it is was decided that the Yarra did not seem a significant boundary and Southbank was detached to join the Melbourne CBD.
Further to my previous post.
On community of interest grounds, a future seat consisting of Melbourne CBD, Docklands, Southbank and Fishermans Bend might be a future possibility.
The other issue is that high levels of residential development are not converting into voter growth. There have been recent reports that very high numbers of Dockland flats (15% if I recall) are empty long term and a lot of the CBD population are non citizens (foreign students etc.) so population does not convert to enrolment.
bbp – that is very interesting. The population numbers in CBD/Southbank/Docklands don’t translate into voters. Also I would imagine there are probably a higher proportion of “temporary” residents from interstate who don’t enrol here, as well as the students and other non-citizens.
So the expanding outer edge of Melbourne may make more of a donut effect on electorates than expected. though electorates are done on total population numbers rather than voters aren’t they? Certainly federally I remember WA having one more seat than SA with less population because WA had many more under-18s
There was a tweet saying Newspoll is due Monday at the latest, will be interesting to see how that compares.
Personally i think SMS polls are biased towards younger people and landlines biased against them. Multi-mode is the most believable method IMO.
I really wish the Green numbers were a bit more credible and consistent between the pollsters. It seems we simply won’t know what’s going on with the Green vote until election night, which is a shame, because their campaign is really full on.
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I did not say it would happen at the next redistribution but at some point.
38
If the Yarra is going to be crossed by a metro district then the city centre is the place to do it. A district taking in the CBD, Docklands, Southbank and such similar areas would have a high density residential community of interest. It would also allow electoral growth to be catered for with less extensive boundary change.
Presumably the seat with the CBD would retain the name Melbourne and a new seat with a name such as Parkville or Royal Park or a revived seat of North Melbourne (1959-1927) or Carton (1877-1958). Presumably Melbourne would shift to Southern metro and the newly named seat would be in Northern Metro.
Automatic enrolment should help the young and interstate migrants be enrolled. Also while the population growth in the city centre is disproportionately foreign (ineligible to vote and thus not effecting electorate size), educational (enrolled in other electorates/states) and the number of children (under voting age) in the area is now increasing (as city centre people increasingly decide against moving out to the suburbs when they have a family) it is still fairly substantial with all those tower going up and there will be significant electorate growth in the city centre.
bug1@40
Who was that by? I can find Karvelas saying “next week” without specifying when.
A week out, no signs yet of traction for the lnp inpulling back their poll deficit. TPP seems locked in a 52-55 to 48-45 range. The traditional advertising media on commercial tv no longer has the pull it had. I barely watch commercial tv, in common with most of gen y
i’m calling it way too early I know given the 2010 result, but I just dont see any signs of a late surge to the LNP. Comfotable VIC ALP victory.
“I have had a lot of qns about when the next #vicvotes Newspoll will be published. Next week. It’s the only poll that counts”- PatriciaKarvelas
“Will it be published on Monday? #vicvotes” Gay Alcorn
“no, later” – PatriciaKarvelas
https://twitter.com/PatsKarvelas/status/535562942381453312
Be wary The liberal election promise. So many broken pledges here in Western Australia and repeated in the Federal Election, all spoken by the leader who we trusted and voted. There is a unpleasant win at any cost by career politicians who sway vote and then don’t deliver on thier promises, as a businessman I’d be in court for making a false statement to the Stock Exchange.
Given the big number of voters now voting daily the Vic election is virtually over AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR THE ONCE COMMION ELECTION EVE “STUNT” AND”SHOCKS”
I have just trawled through hundreds and hundreds of PB posts from the last Victorian election. After a slow start on PB, there was a real crescendo in the last two weeks. The election-eve blogs are the most interesting, when late polling swings the Coalition’s way. I see my 2010 self very upset on election night – I think because I saw it coming and felt it could have been prevented.
New thread.