The Herald-Sun brings us a Victorian election poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, providing us with the first statewide result from a polling period more recent than the Sunday before last. The Galaxy poll of 924 respondents has Labor leading 52-48, which you can either interpet as indicating no change since the last Galaxy poll three weeks ago, which had the same result, or a slight narrowing in Labor’s lead given the general tendency of early campaign polling to come in higher than that, and the pollster’s general lack of a clear house bias. On the primary vote, Labor is up a point to 39%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 40% and 13%.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan’s third SMS poll of the campaign offers a dose of cold water for that glimmer of hope I referred to in the post header. The poll was conducted from 1042 respondents over the last two nights, and it finds Labor’s lead up to 55-45 from 53.5-46.5 from the last poll, which was conducted from Friday to Monday of the week before last. The poll’s hard-to-credit vote for the Greens has gone still higher, from 18.5% to 19.5%, with both major parties down on the primary vote: Labor by half a point to 35.5%, the Coalition by three to 35%. This would seem to be partly to do with a change in the question structure to include the Australian Sex Party among the response options, which comes in at 3%.