A heavy duty result from Newspoll this weeks activates some serious movement in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with Labor up a full point on two-party preferred and the better part of 2% on the primary vote. The model is particularly impressed that Newspoll should have Labor’s primary vote as high as 39%, given its traditional tendency to track a little low in Newspoll. This leaves less of the vote for each of the Coalition, the Greens and Palmer United, with the latter once again in the position of recording a new post-election low.
On the seat projection, Labor gains a seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia to reach 83 seats, which is as many as it won in 2007. Bill Shorten has also shot to the lead as preferred prime minister, although you would want to see that corroborated by another pollster. Shorten’s net approval rating remains just below parity, where it has sat with remarkable consistency since the correction over New Year that ended his initial honeymoon period. Tony Abbott on the other hand is back on a downward trajectory, putting his net approval rating back to where it had plateaued following the MH17 disaster, before the second spike in his favour as domestic terrorism concerns dominated the agenda in mid-September.
882 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”
[Hunt didn’t start with any credit]
Hunt started with credit. Remember he used to reference his postgraduate, albeit obliquely to bolster his credentials when discussing mitigating AGW?
Hunt being the shelled-out husk he is today is all his own doing.
Work to Rule
Does that mean Peta is more efficient than Arfur?
Posted Friday, November 21, 2014 at 8:16 pm | Permalink
My own view is that all these issues for the Abbott govt started way before the budget and all those broken promises. I said way back at the beginning of the year that they didn’t have a coherent ‘narrative’ (for want of a better word) other than pitching to whatever the reactionary base wanted to hear and appearing lazy and arrogant.]
Yep Agree – they lied. Now they are trying to redefine what a lie is.
Thats all they ever had, plus Joe’s magic pudding.
[Whatever limited electoral authority they may have had following the election they blew themselves with self indulgent arrogance. ]
Well they have upset heaps of people for no progress and they still haven’t made much progress on what they want, ie less tax for business – who move profit overseas anyway in many cases ans a GST to lower taxes for their mates.
People don’t like abbott and I doubt whether they will like say, mesma much better either.
But the tories all hate turbull. Long may it be so.
[ Hunt started with credit. Remember he used to reference his postgraduate, albeit obliquely to bolster his credentials when discussing mitigating AGW? ]
His joint thesis was titled – “Make the Polluters Pay”.
His policy is to “Pay Polluters to Pollute”
Work to Rule
Yep, I forgot the mantrs – ‘We’ll decide who comes etc.’
I still have nightmares on polling days that those devestating signs will be all over the booth fences as they were in 2004, if I remember rightly, or was it 2001. Anyway they killed Labor stone dead.
On JBishop, FWIW I reckon Mumble is right that the only reason she appears halfway competent is because of the portfolio she’s in. As he says, if she was switched out with Hockey, it’d be him getting the rave reviews.
And yes, Hunt’s thesis advocated carbon pricing. Like I said, that he’s now shilling for the complete opposite is the reason he’s a husked out shell today.
I’m surprised Hunt hasn’t grown a beard to avoid lengthy periods of having to look in the mirror…
Didn’t Hunt try to disclaim his thesis on Q&A recently. I think he called Albo a liar when challenged on it. Hunt has lost all credibility and after this week so has Turnbull.
Cassidy didn’t go easy on Turnbull and he deserved it.
rossmcg Posted Friday, November 21, 2014 at 8:18 pm @ 840
Yes, I agree. Howard did seem to enjoy the challenge. But I’m not sure he would have bothered if O’Brien’s style had been more adversarial.
It’s only my opinion, and I’ve never studied in this area, but sometimes I think a conversation can elicit more information than an argument. Perhaps if 7:30 allowed more time for their interviews things might be a little different.
Oh, here’s someone else’s observations on some of our journalists: http://www.sundaydrives.com.au/?page=10
[On JBishop, FWIW I reckon Mumble is right that the only reason she appears halfway competent is because of the portfolio she’s in ]
I also suspect she is starting to believe the hype that is being ramped up about her.
Political competence is not something that was been used to describe her until the recent fading of hockey and abbott’s media images.
mesma v Obama is a no brainer on an issue like GBR – or most other things.
dave Posted Friday, November 21, 2014 at 8:45 pm @ 846
Yes, that’s what I wrote and I wasn’t ammending it. There’s a reason I used the word necessarily. It means that I wasn’t saying it was a bad thing. It means that I also wasn’t saying that it was always a good thing.
Politicians will do a risk/reward calculation to decide if they should do an interview. If the risk is too high for the potential reward they won’t do the interview. Or they will be so defensive in the interview that it’s a waste of everyone’s time.
Now if you interpreted what I wrote differently to what I thought I wrote then I apologise.
Not sure. I don’t really watch Qanda, but it wouldn’t surprise me all to hear that was the case.
Posted Friday, November 21, 2014 at 9:11 pm | Permalink
But I’m not sure he would have bothered if O’Brien’s style had been more adversarial. ]
What a laugh – Those interviews were full of aggression – open aggression.
confessions Posted Friday, November 21, 2014 at 9:03 pm @ 856
How soon people have forgotten her performance as Shadow Treasurer. I also wonder how much of what we’re hearing about her performance in the FA portfolio is really PR from her department and staffers and self promotion?
Out of interest, does anyone know who in her party was white anting her when she was the Shadow Treasurer?
[I also suspect she is starting to believe the hype that is being ramped up about her.]
Always a possibility with MPs!
I think here was some loose lips in relation to what Andrew Robb thought of ms Bishop at the time.
[Out of interest, does anyone know who in her party was white anting her when she was the Shadow Treasurer?]
Well, we know it wasn’t women.
Posted Friday, November 21, 2014 at 9:13 pm | Permalink
Now if you interpreted what I wrote differently to what I thought I wrote then I apologise. ]
No need to apologise.
We are having a political celebral joust.
The more vigorous interviews/ debates along the lines conducted by Sarah Ferguson the better, as long as both sides cope it IMO.
Also note howard always refused to debate the LOTO on shows such as 730 – that should happen and the debate should be vigorous and transparent.
That not happening in *our* Parliament with the current despicable speaker.
Ah, Andrew Robb, who might have also had some loose lips during Hockey’s time as Shadow Treasurer.
I suspect many of his colleagues are happy that as Trade Minister he’s out of the country a lot.
Although I see he’s also getting a fair amount of positive publicity at the moment. Perhaps he’s borrowed Ms Bishop’s PR people?
I was a little unkind to Mr Robb. I failed to mention his unwavering loyalty to his leader Malcolm Turnbull.
[ Out of interest, does anyone know who in her party was white anting her when she was the Shadow Treasurer? ]
I always thought the culprit was alway obvious – herself and her incompetence.
Sheridan – one of her tory ‘mates’ –
[ ..Bishop was a dreadful failure as Treasury spokeswoman and is now a dreadful failure in foreign affairs. That sentence, that judgment, is entirely my own, though it is indeed widely shared. ..
….I have never met a federal Liberal MP prepared to defend her performance.]
NB – who is Sheridan best mates with ??
A bishop-Robb ticket perhaps? Would help the Victorians overcome their grief at not having a liberal leader since Fraser .
[The U.K. Independence Party dealt a new blow to Prime Minister David Cameron as it won a second seat in Parliament from his Conservatives in six weeks.
Mark Reckless, who defected to UKIP from the Tories in September and then forced a special election in his seat of Rochester & Strood, 30 miles (50 kilometers) southeast of London, was returned to the House of Commons with 16,867 votes. Conservative candidate Kelly Tolhurst came second with 13,947 votes.
“The radical tradition which has stood and spoken for the working class has found a new home in UKIP”…]
Bishop as the Prime Minister Regent
Turnbull as the “official guide” to the Prime Minister Regent
Abbott as Prime Minister in name only
You know it makes sense.
UKIP is a worry — Britain is having its One Nation/PUP moment at once.
Both majors now struggle with the middle and lower white classes in England outside London.
Thatcher alienated a good slab of them from the Tories with her war on workers and the infamous poll tax — Blair did the same for Labour with over generous and ill managed immigration — now they’ve found a new home…
Tim Dunlop with a good read about the erosion of party authority, referenced against Bolt’s to do list for the Abbott govt from the other day.
Thanks for that.
Always liked Dunlop’s work, but that is a particularly good effort, with a lot of thoughtful comments on it.
Here is another story about Uber. Regardless of what you think about their service ( I havn’t used them) it would seem they are a crap company
[Australia’s resettlement announcement creates tension and ‘spoils good atmosphere’ with Indonesia]
Is there a posting strike going on?
CTari …. nope – there’s a new thread…