BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

A trend to Labor that first became evident in late September accelerates, on the back of its big showing in Newspoll this week.

A heavy duty result from Newspoll this weeks activates some serious movement in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with Labor up a full point on two-party preferred and the better part of 2% on the primary vote. The model is particularly impressed that Newspoll should have Labor’s primary vote as high as 39%, given its traditional tendency to track a little low in Newspoll. This leaves less of the vote for each of the Coalition, the Greens and Palmer United, with the latter once again in the position of recording a new post-election low.

On the seat projection, Labor gains a seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia to reach 83 seats, which is as many as it won in 2007. Bill Shorten has also shot to the lead as preferred prime minister, although you would want to see that corroborated by another pollster. Shorten’s net approval rating remains just below parity, where it has sat with remarkable consistency since the correction over New Year that ended his initial honeymoon period. Tony Abbott on the other hand is back on a downward trajectory, putting his net approval rating back to where it had plateaued following the MH17 disaster, before the second spike in his favour as domestic terrorism concerns dominated the agenda in mid-September.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

882 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  1. I suppose sending solders to the middle east to stay in hotels isn’t that sexy; raids to collect plastic swords not that helpful; berker bans in parliament not that successful.

    Dog whistle fatigue?

    Now we have a memorandum of understanding masquerading as a free trade agreement .

    Spin fatigue?

    A fight with the rest of the free world over global warming.

    Stupidity fatigue?

    Oh yes; all those ducks lining up for a big LDP comeback.

  2. Frednk

    Lets not forget the thrests to “shirtfront” Vlad Putin being carried out by making him hold a koala. Scarry stuff! A real strongman is our Tony.

  3. The headline in this story is about a rift between PUP and Jacquie Lambie. But that ignores a stinging defeat for the government overr the financial advice laws repeal. Finance minister Matthias Conman (I hope I got the spelling right) has been exposed as a front for financial planners.
    [Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said the results of the vote would increase costs and lessen competition, claims Senator Xenophon labelled “Orwellian”.]

  4. The FOFA “reforms” were mainly about helping big players like AMP but Conman had the cheeck to say they were to help small business. ROTFL! Meanwhile Senator Ronaldson can’t even quote his insults correctly:
    [“Dirty tricks done dirt cheap. Dirty tricks done dirt cheap,” Senator Ronaldson said.]

    Brilliant Senator! Sam Dastyari should continue working with the dissenting independent Senators and Lambie. It could make life very interesting. If they care. About consumers, Dastyari should also remind them that the claimed savings from repealing the carbon tax have not shown up either.

    Have a good day all.

  5. The number of reported cases increased 1% per day in the three seriously affected countries, from 14383 to 15113 in the 5 days to 15-16 Nov, according to the WHO Situation Report published on 19 Nov.

    [In the three countries with widespread and intense transmission, reported case incidence is no longer increasing nationally in Guinea and Liberia, but is still increasing in Sierra Leone.

    EVD transmission is persistent in Guinea, although case incidence is stable or declining in several districts. A total of 74 new confirmed and probable cases were reported nationally during the week to 16 November (figure 1). However, data are missing for one day (15 November).

    In the west of the country, the capital, Conakry, reported a single new confirmed case in the week to 16 November…

    Case incidence continues to decline in the outbreak’s epicentre Gueckedou, which reported no new cases during the week to 16 November. Only 1 new case has been reported from Gueckedou during the past 21 days.

    Case incidence appears to have stabilized over the past 4 weeks, after declining from mid-September until mid-October. A total of 80 probable cases were reported in the week to 15 November. Nationally, on average, between 10 and 20 laboratory-confirmed cases are being reported each day; the trend over time in the number of laboratory-confirmed cases reported each week has mirrored the trend shown in figure 2, with a decline followed by a leveling off in the past 4 weeks.

    Sierra Leone
    EVD transmission remains intense and widespread in Sierra Leone, with 533 new confirmed cases reported in the week to 16 November. Much of this was driven by intense transmission in the country’s west and north.

    The worst affected area remains the capital, Freetown, which reported 168 new confirmed cases (figure 3). Transmission remains persistent and intense across the country with the exception of the south east, with the districts of Bo (33 cases), Bombali (52 cases), Koinadugu (25 cases), Kono (12 cases), Moyamba (10 cases), Port Loko (95 cases), Tonkolili (29 cases), and Western Rural Area (102 cases), all reporting high numbers of new cases during the past week.

    By contrast, several districts in the south east have reported very few new cases in recent weeks after previously reporting declines. Notably, Kenema and Kailahun reported 0 and 1 case, respectively, during the past week. Kenema has not reported a case since 1 November, and there is strong evidence that this is a result of response efforts.]

    Australia’s contribution is to be directed to Sierra Leone. Had the Abbott Government responded much earlier to requests from the SL PM, many of the deaths there could have been avoided.

  6. Unless Labor announces a plan to turn the Sydney CBD into a nuclear waste dump, I can’t see how Abbott can turn this ship around. He’s going down, down, down.

    Now, picking Parliament House as the spot for the dump might actually win some votes.

  7. Last week jeff McCloy, former mayor of Newcastle and frequently mentioned in ICAC, tried
    to hasten his high court challenge to the New South Wales electoral funding laws which preclude developers so his challenge would be heardbefore the march election.

    While it may be heard before the election there will be no decision.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Tony Wright – When election promises become lies.
    The values of the privileged.
    Mark Kenny looks at how Palmer’s influence (and Abbott’s position) have been eroded.
    So does Lenore Taylor.
    Unis begin investigating the significant cheating going on.
    The effect of the SBS cuts looks like more advertising and this has infuriated commercial TV bosses. Well Tone. you asked for it! Maybe they should look at their own businesses and stop putting on so much shit.
    “No cuts – just savings” says the Minister for Mirth, Malcolm Turnbull.
    Stand by for cut-price broadcasting from the ABC.
    Government control is at the heart of ABC cuts.
    And here’s another cut with consequences.

  9. Section 2 . . .

    “This is what the PM really meant” said Turnbull. Pull the other one mate!
    Abbott’s “weathervane” characteristics were on full display yesterday. How can we believe this guy?
    The FoFA disallowance sends the industry scurrying.
    Elizabeth Farelly on how Abbottism has made hate and hypocrisy the Australian norm.
    Australia – the selfish country.
    View from the Street.–oh-my-20141119-11pwl8.html
    It was a big day yesterday for Adele Ferguson who has tirelessly kept it up against the FoFA shambles. She tells us that the financial planners brought it all upon themselves. And she gives due credit to Sam Dastyari.
    Michelle Gratten says the FoFA setback for the government represents an unexpected win for consumers.
    Stephen Koukoulas has a good look at what Glen Stevens has just said.
    What a powder keg!

  10. Section 4 . . .

    David Pope is on fire with the ABC/SBS cuts.
    John Spooner chips in with another on that subject.
    Ron Tandberg with a good dig at the Victorian government.
    MUST SEE! David Rowe has Cormann struggling to eat Lambie’s shit sandwich.
    Mark Knight with a ferocious Lambie.

  11. [“Dirty tricks done dirt cheap. Dirty tricks done dirt cheap,” Senator Ronaldson said.]

    Yes, it was funny hearing the libs ripping into the senators for not holding to earlier commitments.

    At the same time Turnbull was explaining why Abbotts commitment on SBS and ABC funding was not really a commitment. Turnbulls explanation would be at home in the training manual for Storm and CBA financial advisers.

    Brogden could not see the irony in his remarks that the return to the original FOFA laws would catch advisers unaware and create chaos. The FOFA changes came in in July 2013 after much pre announcement, the regulations to disallow them were sudden in comparison and always subject to a disallowance motion as are any regulation and given the government has had much legislation rejected a disallowance was on the cards.

    Were the planners Brogden mentions relying on the libs advice of don’t worry we will look after you,trust me its all good.

    And then we had the commercial TV chiefs smirking over the libs cuts saying the SBA and ABC needed to face commercial realities then screaming about SBS increasing advertising.

    The libs have been held so poorly to account by large sections of the media that they are just saying any rubbish now regardless of the contradictions.

  12. AS

    [Unless Labor announces a plan to turn the Sydney CBD into a nuclear waste dump, I can’t see how Abbott can turn this ship around. He’s going down, down, down.]

    It seems so. In the cricket one tactic to get a batsman out is to ‘drown him in honey’ which entails feeding him opportunities to play a favourite shot while packing the field to take advantage of any execution errors.

    Abbott has been encouraged to play culture war by Murdoch and the press corps and was never required to account for any of his thought bubbles. Instead, he got a rails run to the top job. He got the top job but radically underestimated the level of difficulty and continued to act as if right wing homilies would suffice as policy. Now there’s a huge mess. Wrecking Abbott wasn’t Murdoch’s plan, but he is drowning in honey. He really only has one shot in his kit bag and it only works when the fielders are all asleep.

    On the ‘Sydney as nuclear waste dump’ suggestion, Lucas Heights does store low level radioactive waste in small quantities. So do all places that do nuclear medicine It’s not a huge problem — probably easier to manage than the many other toxic chemicals considered essential to modern life.

  13. Andrew Bolt is z heapin’ helpin’ of 😀 in an article advising Abbott what he needs to do in light of the 45-55 disaster.


    Abbott is a Christian who believes virtue is rewarded, and enemies should be embraced….]
    For some reason BoltA thought it best not to mention the name of the “one participant” 🙂
    This is deadly given the ferocious hatred of Abbott in the media Left, especially the massive ABC. Check out Monday’s Q&A, which even one participant agreed was another “Abbott hatefest”.]

  14. [I can’t see how Abbott can turn this ship around. He’s going down, down, down.]

    Anything can happen in the next two years.

    Labor had high ratings in its first term and would have been a one termer except for the courage of Windsor and Oakeshot.

    On the positive side for labor they do not appear to have another rudd in their ranks to whiteant them and the libs do not appear to have a credible replacement for Abbott.

  15. Looks like Mattias Corman is copping a pounding everywhere for proclaiming that Abbott has not lied about cutting the ABC. Apparently, it’s an “efficiency dividend”.

  16. Poroti

    What’s interesting about Blot’s column is that his correspondents are not on the whole defending Abbott.

    I love it that Blot says Abbott could have profited by ‘chiding this show pony(Obama)’ over his cautions on global warming.

    Great advice!

  17. This is deadly given the ferocious hatred of Abbott in the media Left, especially the massive ABC. Check out Monday’s Q&A, which even one participant agreed was another “Abbott hatefest”.

    Its scary that so many believe this “ABC hate Abbott” line.

    Didn’t see the same people whinging when the ABC produced that satire of Gillard that included her having sex with “Tim” under the Aust flag….or was that pro-Labor?

  18. [Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said the results of the vote would increase costs and lessen competition, claims Senator Xenophon labelled “Orwellian”.]

    That’s ok. We don’t want people competing for the privilege of ripping us off.

  19. [Lets not forget the thrests to “shirtfront” Vlad Putin being carried out by making him hold a koala. Scarry stuff! A real strongman is our Tony.]

    Prime Turkey.

  20. Andy Lloyd James is former head of National Networks, ABC and former head of television at SBS. I think he’s angry.

    [In the past year we have seen numerous examples of government hacking away at Australia’s future, a belittling of many of our aspirations, rights and ethics. It has been accompanied by varying attempts to close down public debate. In that atmosphere the ABC and SBS make a perfect target.

    You can tell that the government has no strategic vision for the future of public broadcasting and that this is yet another belittlement campaign. If they had such a vision, they would outline it and develop it in open discussion with the broadcasters, with other media entities and with the people of this country. That’s how to build a national broadcasting strategy with its necessary structure and budgeting. But what we have here is a daisy chain of “no-cuts” promises and then a headbutt.]

    Read more:

  21. Guess Bolt doesnt think that Abbott and Co looking after the interests of Gina, twiggy and Rupert is reason enough for the voting public to stop stopping them. Go figure.

  22. Mike Carlton is not impressed

    [The truly despicable thing about the Abbott government is the way it shrinks and crushes all that is good and hopeful about this country.]

  23. @ Fran, 16

    I meant that metaphorically, of course, to represent any “colossally, suicidally stupid” kind of idea that Labor might come up with – necessarily something orders of magnitude more stupid than the whoppers Abbott has come up with so far.

    @ Boris, 18

    That was a case of a Government falling in the polls over time though.

    It’s a lot easier to make a massive hash of things as a Government than it is in Opposition – and a lot harder to appear competent and trustworthy as a Government when you’ve just broken dozens and dozens of your key promises from before the election.

    I think it’s a bit disingenuous to compare the two scenarios.

    @ Achmed, 20

    Ha. Very funny.

  24. Fran Barlow

    Re comments for Blot’s article. Yes that hit me too. I read them to soak up a bit more schadenfreude and was surprised to see how many negative comments about Abbott there was.

  25. Goodness i just heard mathias Cormann interview with ulhmann. You really gotta laugh. He insists that there has not been a cut to the ABC and SBS, but an efficiency dividend.

  26. [Darn

    I wonder if the Coalition have reached peak Orwell, or could it possibly get worse.]

    There is a sophistication about Orwellian spin, Abbott and Co are more like 7 year olds caught lying … it is stupid and pathetic

  27. Had lunch with one of my clients who is an accountant. No kind words for Abbott and stated they need to replace him.

    Interestingly, he stated that hadn’t had decent PM since Howard. He had great respect for Keating – saw him as a man of vision and his legacy will be long remembered

  28. There are two things to be said about Cormann’s black-is-white claim that a cut is not a cut ‘when it’s an attempt to make sure an organisation is operating as efficiently as possible’. This clearly empties promises of ‘no cuts’ of any reliable semantic content, reducing it to mere noise and misdirection. This point should be underlined as often as possible.

    More broadly the very concept of an ‘efficiency dividend’ in a public sector organisation is at best nonsense. Most obviously, dividends are income from investments, not reductions in calls upon the state for funds, whether they are made possible by efficiencies or reductions in the quality or scope of services. The RBA for example, can pay dividends from profitable commercial activity, and in theory, the ABC might too. For people like Hockey, Cormann or Turnbull who in theory ought to know what my Year 9s mostly answer correctly in Commerce tests, but either don’t (or else dissemble openly) shows how unfit they are for office.

    Public sector organisations have a mission. Their state funds are provided so that they can meet that mission. A public sector organisation that becomes more efficient is one that improves the quality and/or scope of services fitting within the mission per dollar of net funds available to it.

    If the state wants to cut its budget, what it is really saying is that the public sector organisation is doing more than the state wants or is doing what what the state wants too well. An honest regime would say this openly, but this regime is dishonest, so it covers its ambition with the weasel term ‘efficiency dividend’. The reality is that the regime has no idea how ‘efficient’ the organisation is because it has never asked. It has simply announced an arbitrary figure — 5% — and asserted that this is its inefficiency rate. As in so many other areas, this regime is an evidence-free zone, and its assertions pure cant. We on the left ought to criticise relentlessly the ‘efficiency dividend’ meme.

  29. The ABC and SBS have been cut, in spite of the fact that Abbott said that they wouldn’t be. So why is Turnbull saying there have been no cuts? Does he think the voters are stupid? Or maybe just those at the margins the Liberals need to vote against their interests.

  30. Re article linked by Lizzie @26: the Government doesn’t have a strategy fior public broadcasting because it doesn’t believe in it. Privatising the ABC and SBS and numbers 50 abd 51 on the IPA’s 75 Point Plan, which is I believe the best indication of what this Government actually wants to do, especially now that Abbott has outed himself as a free market fundamentalist – Familiy First rather than DLP.

  31. Eastern Australia headed for soaring heat for the next 5 days or so, but in the US –

    [Stunning Photos Of Record Snow Covering Upstate New York: 100 Total Inches Of Snow Expected

    Shocked residents woke up to find themselves literally buried under 6 or more feet of snow. Here is a sample of what they saw on Tuesday morning courtesy of Albany Meteorologist Greg Pollak:

    :large ]

  32. GG 33

    Shame that poll didnt cover Briggs. The Right candidates in Adelaide Hills Council elections got done over despite spending up big and getting Briggs endorsement.

  33. lizzie

    I wonder if the Coalition have reached peak Orwell, or could it possibly get worse.]
    It’s almost definitely going to get worse.

  34. [ Goodness i just heard mathias Cormann interview with ulhmann. You really gotta laugh. He insists that there has not been a cut to the ABC and SBS, but an efficiency dividend. ]

    I like the way the reactionaries have got different versions about *No cuts to the ABC or SBS*.

    Keep digging suckers. None of it passes the ‘Pub Test’.

    abbott in hiding ?

  35. There are no cuts to the ABC, pensioners are no worse off, uni students are leaners and should pay more, increase fuel excise is not a tax increase, the GP tax is really a co-payment, its u to the states to change the GST, Lib NBN is a world beater.

    Lots of weasel words, lots of rags and lots of turd polish.

    (If only I owned a turd polishing factory)

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