BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

A trend to Labor that first became evident in late September accelerates, on the back of its big showing in Newspoll this week.

A heavy duty result from Newspoll this weeks activates some serious movement in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with Labor up a full point on two-party preferred and the better part of 2% on the primary vote. The model is particularly impressed that Newspoll should have Labor’s primary vote as high as 39%, given its traditional tendency to track a little low in Newspoll. This leaves less of the vote for each of the Coalition, the Greens and Palmer United, with the latter once again in the position of recording a new post-election low.

On the seat projection, Labor gains a seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia to reach 83 seats, which is as many as it won in 2007. Bill Shorten has also shot to the lead as preferred prime minister, although you would want to see that corroborated by another pollster. Shorten’s net approval rating remains just below parity, where it has sat with remarkable consistency since the correction over New Year that ended his initial honeymoon period. Tony Abbott on the other hand is back on a downward trajectory, putting his net approval rating back to where it had plateaued following the MH17 disaster, before the second spike in his favour as domestic terrorism concerns dominated the agenda in mid-September.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

882 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  1. Justice Jacobsen specifies the key reason why Gina should not be allowed to hep her children’s court proceedings against her silent

    [112.In addition, the public interest in open justice and the entitlement of the media, including the media interests who are party to the present application, must be taken into account on the balance of convenience.]

    Great irony how Fairfax have been front and centre in fighting Rinehart’s attempts at “privacy”.

  2. Abbott’s ” no cuts” must be taken in context, says Turnbull…

    This of course applies to any promises made by the Abbott Government for the 2016 election.

    I looked up the spin dictionary. “Must be taken in context” is the same as “we kept the promises we made, not the promises you thought we made”, which is the same as “if the voters are too stupid to understand us, that’s their fault”.

  3. Good Morning

    I honestly do not see the polls turning around. This is because the whole strategy of doing the tough stuff first has failed. Instead what we have is the attempt to do the tough stuff.

    As a result what the LNP wanted done and dusted is still to happen. So just when one toxic issue goes away a new one comes along to replace it.

    All of this means that budget two is going to be tougher on voters than was planned for with flow on effects to the last budget.

    All this against them even if there is no economic downturn.

    So I really do not see how they can turn these polls around. There is going to be no bribe the voters budget in the election year.

  4. [Goodness i just heard mathias Cormann interview with ulhmann. You really gotta laugh. He insists that there has not been a cut to the ABC and SBS, but an efficiency dividend.]

    Pyne’s petition yesterday to stop ABC cuts in Adelaide really exposed the hypocrisy of this government.

  5. I like the way Bolty suggests there should be more women in Cabinet.

    I hope he isn’t suggesting that misogyny was a factor in putting the Ministry together…

  6. [Shocked residents woke up to find themselves literally buried under 6 or more feet of snow. ]

    Wow, residents were LITERALLY buried under snow. That’s awful. Heavy snow is bad enough – but 6 feet of snow in one’s own bedroom! In one’s own bed, even! It’s a miracle they woke up at all!!

    Please excuse my laboured sarcasm… but this ‘literally’ thing really shits me.

  7. For example, the smh is reporting “Abbott’s climate change u-turn”.

    I’ll believe it when he drops DA for something else. More likely he will just push harder selling DA as the solution.

    We had Barrie Cassidy asking Shorten why they weren’t supporting DA as the only policy with a chance to get through parliament. Doing so would simply lend a legitimacy to Abbott’s “me too”s that they don’t deserve.

    We also had Peter Hartcher talking about Abbott’s change and how he could sideline Labor and its ETS by leading strongly with DA. Nevermind discussing the actual effectiveness of either policy, he starts with the politics and works his way backwards.

    DA is a policy for a government that doesn’t want to do anything but leave themselves an out, and it appears some in the media are happy to go along with their charade.

    I expect we’ll see more of this, with the government and their sycophants in the media painting Abbott as reformed, DA as a strong policy and Labor as the recalcitrants playing catch up in acting on AGW with an obsolete and ineffective ETS.

  8. Next up more bad news for the LNP as the polls tell us the LNP will be out on Saturday.

    This will change the dynamic in the national conversation. Even News Limited will have to print something about alternatives to the Abbott narrative.

  9. [Abbott’s ” no cuts” must be taken in context, says Turnbull…]
    Quite true. It was in the context of a promise being made by a mendacious toad .

  10. On the ABC cuts

    “@mumbletwits: It’s 1996 and Communications Minister Alston denies the bleedin obvious, that Howard govt is breaking election promise not to cut the ABC.”

    The excuses are not even original

  11. As distasteful as it is to defend Senator Ronaldson on the charge of AC/DC ignorance, this is what he actually said, according to Hansard:
    [I am old enough to remember a song by AC/DC, Dirty Deeds
    Done Dirt Cheap
    . This is a dirty trick, a dirty deed, but it has not been done dirt cheap. This is a dirty trick paid
    for by the CFMEU and other union leaders, and Senator Dastyari sits there, wrings his hands and his voice softens
    and he says, ‘No fix for this disallowance.’]

  12. Labor should stick to their guns.

    They had in place an effective policy. Abbott tore it down and replaced it with a fig leaf. Nobody should expect Labor to do anything but point out exactly how skimpy his covering is. Certainly they shouldn’t expect Labor to hold his fig leaf in place for him.

  13. DN

    The Liberals think bullying the Senators is how you negotiate. Thus all the stuff we are getting from them today.

    However its unlikely the Senators who saw the Timbercorp damage are going to change their minds again. Much as I have little time for their politics they have one thing right. They expect the government to lie and be tricky.

    The LNP has to come up with legislation to get past the Senate and cannot claim urgency as Labor’s laws are in place and working.

  14. Steve777

    [I looked up the spin dictionary. “Must be taken in context” is the same as “we kept the promises we made, not the promises you thought we made”, which is the same as “if the voters are too stupid to understand us, that’s their fault”.]

    There’s nothing wrong in principle with insisting that inferences about one’s words take due account of context. If for example, someone channelling Truman’s cliche says ‘the buck stops with me’ what that statement means in practice will depend on the authority and apparent duty held by the speaker — which us his or her context. If this was in relation to a specific matter, then the context will be narrower still.

    However, the appeal to context by politicians and celebrities is often little more in practice these days than handwaving misdirection. The context for Abbott’s remarks to Anton Enus was his question to Abbott about whether organisations like SBS and the ABC were ‘in the firing line’, to which Abbott responded with his list of public sector services that would not be subject to cuts.

    Admittedly, he did confine the word ‘cuts’ to the ABC and used the word ‘changes’ in relation to pensions. He drew attention to Joe Hockey’s statements. On August 20, when discussing ‘cuts’ to the ABC Hockey told TJ that the ALP had ‘cut’ the ABC, which seems clearly to define ‘cuts’ as reductions in funds from the Commonwealth. Bowen rejected Hockey’s claim and when pressed, Hockey said ‘if there is waste we will cut it’.

    So Hockey’s comments were at best ambiguous. Yet even this narrower interpretation of ‘cuts’ strongly implies an ABC-specific program aimed at identifying activities or spending that was wasteful. Hockey joked about Leigh Sales’ salary being a target. Clearly, a more generalised ‘efficiency dividend’ presented as burden sharing cannot be situated within the quite narrow condition ‘if there is waste’ (which admits the possibility that there might be none).

    Hockey admitted as much in his rhetorical challenge to TJ when he asked ‘are you saying there’s no waste at the ABC’ and TJ advised he not ‘come looking here for any’ (prompting Hockey’s Leigh Sales remark). Clearly Hockey in context was proposing some sort of audit as a precondition to ‘cuts’. None has occurred and certainly, Hockey didn’t imply that this was what the ALP had done with its ‘cuts’.

    So in context, Abbott’s remarks are simply dissembling. He wanted people to believe that ABC and SBS funding would be sacrosanct at least in money terms.

  15. It’s incredibly hard to keep up with what Abbott is telling his new best friends.

    [Tony Abbott has called on countries to set strong binding emissions reductions targets at next year’s major climate conference in Paris, warning the world cannot afford another disappointment like the Copenhagen summit in 2009.

    And after years of arguing that Australia should only move faster once major polluters also moved, he has now described climate change as “an important subject” and one “the world needs to tackle as a whole”.

    The declaration followed one-on-one talks with his French counterpart, President Francois Hollande, in Canberra ranging across trade, security and the need for binding emissions targets.]

    So whether it’s flip-flopping, 108 degree turning or just plain ‘headless chook’ mode, Abbott does the lot.

  16. From Macro business…

    [Benchmark iron ore price also fell 2.9% to $70. With steel price now tumbling as well post APEC there is another reason for mills to keep destocking raw materials. For those looking for a market turn, paper usually turns up first and at this point it’s not happening. Everything is chasing Dalian futures down, which are now pricing roughly $61 by May. Texture from Reuters: “We no longer expect a meaningful iron ore restock later in the year…]

    It’s very late in the year for a “restock”. There’s roughly 2 months to go until the Chinese New Year shutdown. If mills aren’t buying extra ore now, then they most likely will be giving it a miss until March…meaning they have chosen to take a wait and see approach to demand.

    Falling IO and thermal coal prices mean pressure on the budget and on per capita disposable income continues, though on the bright side, the oil price keeps falling too.

  17. I think it’s time someone spoke up for weasels.
    Not my favourite creatures but I think it’s unfair to lump them in with the type of comments we’re seeing here.
    The term’s far from new of course but I’ve never really liked anthropomorphic insults & there’s going to be more, plenty more & going up, necessity for commentary like this. We don’t want the little critters copping too much injustice.

  18. Just been reading the comments at The Australian’s gloat page over cuts to the ABC.

    All the usual “close ’em down” and “sack Mark Scott” stuff, but there was one I DID agree with: get rid of those bloody tweets on Q&A.

  19. Citizen #73 I would be very surprised if Abbott isn’t silently praying/hoping/believing that Paris will go the way of Copenhagen and all the recent hype will just turn out to be more rhetoric rather than substance. If he is right he will likley get the type of bounce now that he did in 2009.

    If not, as always has been the case, Australia will have to fall in line with what the rest of the world is doing and Abbott will do what he always does and backflip with a serious looks saying “We were always going to act when the world acted”.

    If Paris turns out to be the failure Copenhagen was then Abbott may still get his second term.

  20. davidwh

    Paris is likely to succeed. China needs clean air for its citizens and the US has been hammered by extreme weather over the past few years.

  21. vic,

    People seem to have made up their minds some time ago. The media always likes to imply elections are close and there is a genuine contest.

    They are hoping there is some last minute disaster or swing in public opinion so they can write come back stories.

    I just hope Andrews gets on with building confidence and focusses on job creation from Day 1 of his election.

  22. GG

    The negative ads from the libs have been in overdrive. Have seen so many of them as compared to team Labor.

    Agree that the focus should be on confidence and job creation from day one

  23. @Arrnea Stormbringer

    Have a look at the bludger graphs for the Howard years on the side-bar. John Howard continually came from as bad and in some case worse positions in terms of TPP than Abbott to keep on winning elections. Indeed, this seems to be the norm for the LNP, be behind, and then win elections through wedge issues (Asylum seekers, interest rate rises, etc.). So I would not write off a LNP victory yet; especially if the ALP keep on performing poorly.

    I am hopeful that it is a one term LNP; but, I am also very cautious about counting my chickens before they hatch.

  24. [BK
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2014 at 10:46 am | PERMALINK
    The ABC should make big cuts to regional and religious programming.That will get their attention!]

    Getting rid of Grandstand would cause many sports followers to rise up in anger, as would sacking Macca on Sunday mornings (I personally cannot stand the latter but it seems many country people like him).

    Certain overpaid interviewers and political commentators could also be shown the door.

  25. It’s hard to see much changing in the Vic polling. There’s bit a lot of energy in that system which seems to be in a very steady state due to the lack if personalities of the combatants.

    Labor can’t lose.

  26. Which means Paris is already pretty much guaranteed to be a success because the big 3 players in the US, China and EU have all made their commitments early. Now it’s just about getting the next level of players like the rest of the BRICS on the same page and why Obama and Xi are talking about getting the commitments out 1st quarter next year. India’s commitment to renewables makes them likely to come to the party I’d say (don’t know what Russia, SA and Brazil are up to).

    Get those all on board with some reasonable targets and it’s all over. Abbott will get rolled over the top of like at the G20 if he tries to hold back the tide. That isn’t going to win him any votes.

  27. vic,

    The negative ads are targetted at the undecideds. As I said earlier, most people have made up their minds. So, it’s a lot of money for not much return methinks.

  28. GG

    Negative ads do work. The emphasis has been on Andrews being linked to the corrupt CFMEU and the white elephant that is the desal plant.

  29. [Getting rid of Grandstand would cause many sports followers to rise up in anger..]

    They could trim Ray Phillips, GB Hogg, Terry Alderman and Wayne Clark off the cricket commentary.

  30. Diogs,

    It’s actually an election being fought on issues and not personalities. Both Leaders are moderate good blokes. Andrews is younger, has a young family and has a vested interest in the services that State Governments provide. Napthine is a refugee from the 90s leading a Government that has done nothing for most of it’s term.

    Also, Tony abbott stinks in Victoria.

  31. BSA Bob

    [I think it’s time someone spoke up for weasels. Not my favourite creatures but I think it’s unfair to lump them in with the type of comments we’re seeing here.]

    Fair point. I will find another term. My apologies. It’s easy to fall into bad habits.

  32. I love the ABC; these days it’s the only network I watch (aside from SBS occasionally). But I actually would not be too sad to see ABC24 be cut. It’s just plain boring. Any politics-related program worth watching is on ABC1 anyway.

  33. victoria

    Did you see the Age article the other day in which some producers in Gippsland were pleading for desal water, but can’t get any. I suppose Coalition would be philosophically against using it, even if needed!

  34. Yes,something will get up in Paris. Finally.

    Did I read Abbott’s now pretending he supports that outcome? LOL!

    What a weather vane. “Convictions” my ass.

    I cant see them turning this around. Honestly, who out there in punterland is still “wait and see” on this lot.

    People held their noses when they voted for Abbott,and his only real shot was “I may be an awkward gorilla, and only here because the ALP exploded; but I do what I say, and with more of an eye to fairness then some may have expected”.

    Well,thats all gone in a budget storm of ill-justified nasty, peevish, monstrously unfair mendacity.

    Odds on heavily to lose in 2016. Theyve already rooted this.

  35. NSW Politics:

    Ian MacDonald has been charged and will appear in Court on the offence of selling a mining licence while a Member of Parliament.

    Good one!

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