Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

Nielsen’s first poll since the election delivers a rude shock for the Abbott government, showing Labor with an election-winning lead and Bill Shorten travelling 20 points better on net approval than Tony Abbott.

The Abbott government’s mediocre post-election polling record takes a considerable turn for the worse today with the publication of the first Fairfax/Nielsen poll since the election, which is the Coalition’s worst result from Nielsen since the 2010 election campaign, or from any poll at all since the months immediately following. The poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens, 5% for “independents” (an unorthodox inclusion) and 6% for others. Bill Shorten scores remarkably strongly on his debut personal ratings, with approval at 51% and disapproval at 30%, while Tony Abbott manages a tepid 47% approval and 46% disapproval. However, Abbott holds a 49-41 lead as preferred prime minister.

Full tables including state breakdowns are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes, and they offer at least some ammunition for those of a mind to be skeptical about the result. With due consideration to the fact that an element of wonkiness can be expected from small state-level samples, there are approximate two-party preferred swings to Labor of 2% in New South Wales, 4% in Victoria and 1.5% in South Australia, all of which are easy enough to believe. However, in both Queensland and Western Australia the swings are 11%, the former result coming less than two weeks after an 800-sample poll by Galaxy showed no swing at all. It’s tempting to infer that Nielsen struck Labor-heavy samples in these states, and that had it been otherwise the result would have been more like 50-50.

A more technical observation to be made about the result is that the two-party preferred figures are based on respondent-allocated preferences, whereas Nielsen’s topline numbers are usually based on preference flows from the previous election. This no doubt is because the Australian Electoral Commission still hasn’t published Coalition-versus-Labor two-party results from the 11 seats where other candidates made the final count (I’m told they are likely to do so later this week). However, I have one model for allocating preferences based on the information available from the election, which gets Labor’s two-party vote to 51.7%, and Kevin Bonham has two, which get it to 51.2% and 51.4%.

The Nielsen poll also probed into the hot topics of asylum seekers and abolition of the carbon and mining taxes. Only 42% expressed approval for the government’s handling of asylum seekers versus 50% disapproval – though as Psephos notes in comments, this fails to disentangle those who support their objectives from those who don’t (a ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night asked whether the policies were working, and found only 28% thought they were compared with 49% who thought they weren’t). The results on the mining tax were evenly balanced, with 46% saying Labor should support its repeal in parliament versus 47% opposed. The carbon tax at least remains a winner for the government, with 57% saying Labor should vote for its abolition and 38% saying it should oppose it.

In other news, Christian Kerr of The Australian reports on Newspoll analysis of the effect on polling of households without landlines. This was determined through online polling between March and August of nearly 10,000 respondents who were also asked about the state of their household telecommunications. In households without landlines, Coalition support was found to be 1.4% lower, Labor 0.2% lower, the Greens 1.3% higher and “others” 0.2% higher. However, Newspoll’s online polling itself seemed to be skewed to Labor, who came in 4.7% higher than in Newspoll’s landline polling over the same period. This was mostly at the expense of others, which was 4.7% lower, while the Coalition was 0.6% higher and the Greens 1.0% lower. By way of comparison, the online polling of Essential Research over the same period compared with Newspoll’s phone polling as follows: Labor 2.1% higher, the Coalition 3.2% higher, Greens 2.8% lower and others 2.5% lower.

UPDATE: Channel Seven reports that long-awaited ReachTEL result has the Coalition leading 51-49, but unfortunately no further detail is provided. Results earlier released by Seven from the poll include the aforementioned finding that only 28% believe the government’s new policies to stop boat arrivals were working versus 49% who don’t; that 56% say the government should announce boat arrivals when they happenl that 53% think the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and that 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed. The poll is an automated phone poll conducted on Thursday evening, presumably from a sample of about 3000.

UPDATE 2: And now Generic Leftist relates on Twitter that Peter Lewis of Essential Research relates on The Drum that tomorrow’s Essential poll will have Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36%, but with two-party preferred steady at 53-47 to the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,048 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. I give Abbott a year before he is removed. However, having learnt from the Rudd removal, the method of his going will be benign and he will probably go quietly citing illness or family reasons. I just cant see big business putting up with our trading position in Asia being jeopardised by poor politics. They’ll bring Turnbull back in desperation.

  6. Rossmoretry groups t

    Plus there is a vested business group that wants an ETS as they will profit. They will already be working in industry groups to overcome the Carbon vested interests.

    It will probably come down to the superannuation funds in the end. As we have seen from such a US Hedge Fund they know what are in their interests and it is not necessarily big carbon.

  8. confessions@280

    Morning all. Thanks BK for the wrap up.

    If Labor fails to learn the basic lesson that disunity is death, this bounce will be temporary and meaningless.


    Thankfully the chief architect of Labor disunity has now resigned. Hopefully his spear carriers will pull their heads in and unite.

    Stale news, Gillard retired at the last election. But some of her acolytes remain.

  12. [Not much media comment on our UN veto]

    Err… because we don’t have one? 😛

    Unless we got swallowed up by the US or China, or the monarchists got their way and we’re part of the UK again…

  13. [Thankfully the chief architect of Labor disunity has now resigned. Hopefully his spear carriers will pull their heads in and unite.]

    R*dd resigned because Albanese and Bowen told him that they wouldn’t support a campaign of sabotage against Shorten, so there was no chance of a Third Coming. They would both like to be Cabinet ministers again before they retire, and they accept that the only hope of that is through unity behind the Leader.

  16. Almost feel sorry for the LNP supporters here. Today they must be realising “oh crap, Abbott *really is* shithouse. Is it too soon to dump him?”

  18. lying pricks. how long before they announce a revisit to the drawing board on the: NDIS; PPL; 5% emissions reduction targets and indirect inaction funding; dead, buried and cremated workchoices; and other ‘non-core’ promises?

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/back-to-drawing-board-for-gonski-says-christopher-pyne/story-fn59nlz9-1226767435893#

    no wonder the electorate is turning on them

    don’t they realise/care it is a VERY bad look to have Prissy Pyne in his elitist upper-class twat accent deciding to take public money from public schools to give to private schools? How long before we have non-means-tested federal education vouchers and no direct finding to public schools? sold as Schoolchoices? sold by the murdoch media as money straight in your pocket for you to choose your kid’s school?

  20. Usually I read the nonsense written by the bludgers from a position of lofty, slightly-amused contempt. But the more they persist in taking Indonesia’s side against their own country just because they don’t like our current leader the closer to being actually upset I get. You are all disgraceful.

    God I would sell everything I own and donate all my money to the Liberal Party if Tony Abbottt would just come out and put the Indonesians in their place. Dismissively, of course. Their weakness is their inferiority complex.

  21. [R*dd resigned because Albanese and Bowen told him that they wouldn’t support a campaign of sabotage against Shorten, so there was no chance of a Third Coming. They would both like to be Cabinet ministers again before they retire, and they accept that the only hope of that is through unity behind the Leader.]

    That’s great news. Amazingly Rudd believed them above his own faith in his infallibility and ‘unique connection’ with the public (I don’t know nobody who doesn’t think he’s a pratt – this could be a Victorian thing – we’re smarter down here than the warmer states)

  22. [http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/24/labour-australian-strategist-rightwing-attacks]

    Someone should warn them. NO!! NO!! NO!!

  23. @RT/370

    The ‘inferiority complex’ is that of Abbott, not Indonesians, Indonesians don’t need us, we need them to export our stuff.

  25. Re Mikehillard @361: actually, Paul Sheehan’s suggested 10 point response to the spying scandal is pretty good in my opinion, except for point number 4. I agree that Abbott should leave that out. The Indonesians already know and probably couldn’t give a stuff.

    As to the rest of the article, not so good. The media has no obligation to make things easy for the Government. It’s not the ABC’s fault that the Government of the day mishandled the current spying revelations or the earlier ones about live cattle. It’s only obligation is to report the truth fairly, completely, without slanting to support this or that interest (News Corp should note).

  26. Certain neo-colonialist idiots dreaming of an Anglo-Australian leader “putting Indonesia in its place” as a nation of little brown people etc clearly dont recognise that Indonesia’s place is, for starters, (1) athwart our principal maritime routes (think boats of various sorts) (2) full of 10 times as many people as Australia.

  27. [R*dd resigned because Albanese and Bowen told him that they wouldn’t support a campaign of sabotage against Shorten, so there was no chance of a Third Coming. They would both like to be Cabinet ministers again before they retire, and they accept that the only hope of that is through unity behind the Leader.]

    Really just can’t help yourself can you – still about Rudd.

  28. [The coalition made their Operation Sovereign borders a military exercise aimly squared at indonesia.]

    I think this phrasing exactly captures the spirit of Abbott’s foreign policy……aimly squared….perfect 🙂

  29. [I think this phrasing exactly captures the spirit of Abbott’s foreign policy……aimly squared….perfect :)]

    We will chose the countries we offend and the manner in which we offend them.

  31. [Usually I read the nonsense written by the bludgers from a position of lofty, slightly-amused contempt. But the more they persist in taking Indonesia’s side against their own country just because they don’t like our current leader the closer to being actually upset I get. You are all disgraceful.]

    Well Said. But I have come to expect the worse of humanity from this board.

  33. “But the more they persist in taking Indonesia’s side against their own country just because they don’t like our current leader the closer to being actually upset I get.”

    Criticising Abbott’s appalling diplomacy is not the equivalent of ‘taking Indonesia’s side’.

  34. [Usually I read the nonsense written by the bludgers from a position of lofty, slightly-amused contempt. But the more they persist in taking Indonesia’s side against their own country just because they don’t like our current leader the closer to being actually upset I get. You are all disgraceful.]

    I usually enjoy the right wing stupidity here – but your pathetic,dishonest and immoral defence of Abbott has gone to far, we are not taking Indonesia’s side against Australia, first of all because Indonesia is an important friend, you should listen to what your Moron in Chief Abbott is saying. Secondly it is not a fight, it is a diplomatic incident and Indonesia is smashing us because Abbott has mishandled it so badly. It is very bad for Australia and it is important intelligent patriotic Australians point out to lemmings like you how much damage Abbott is doing.

  35. Geoff@381

    Usually I read the nonsense written by the bludgers from a position of lofty, slightly-amused contempt. But the more they persist in taking Indonesia’s side against their own country just because they don’t like our current leader the closer to being actually upset I get. You are all disgraceful.


    Well Said. But I have come to expect the worse of humanity from this board.

    What utter nonsense.

    It is, in fact, taking Australia’s side to ask that our leaders maintain good relations with our neighbours. It is in our own self interest to do so, quite apart from other loftier considerations.

  36. [337
    mikehilliard

    Just listening to 24 & hear Barnett wants WA fisheries to start killing more sharks. This man needs a reality check, WA has nearly 13,000 km of coastline.]

    There are thought to be several factors behind the increase in shark numbers along the WA littoral. Among them, these sound plausible to me:

    – There has been a very large increase in the seal and sea lion population all along the coast since the 1980’s. Until then, lobster fishers had been permitted to shoot these animals in order to protect their pots and bait. As they are now protected, their population has recovered, attracting more sharks inshore.

    – The whale population has also recovered, attracting sharks who prey on calves migrating from NW Cape to the Southern Ocean.

    – Elevated sea surface temperatures are bringing ocean-going species inshore, often in large numbers.

    The WA Government should really consider the efficacy of any culling ideas, which would be very costly to implement and probably achieve very little in the face of large scale environmental change.

  37. [This man needs a reality check, ]

    You have to give Barnett a break, the very bad GST deal that Court and Barnett signed with Howard has come back to bite Barnett on the bottom in a big way. Secondly his lies in the election and economic vandalism of the first term has become apparent in the second term. Then he got caught out lying to Parliament about a letter, turns out he wasn’t deliberately lying just he is a fool(he must have thought that was a good thing) who can’t read understand and remember simple things.

    That he would try and make a bit of political capital out of a death on the weekend is no surprise it is the kind of disgusting thing Liberals do.

  38. [ everything I own and donate all my money to the Liberal Party ]
    surely the correct approach would be to donate it to Gina and let it ‘trickle down’ to the Libs…

  39. You know what’s cowardly? Wrapping yourself in the flag and trying to paint those who criticise the PM as traitors. That’s the biggest insult to this country, not criticising a PM on his diplomatic skills.

    You can believe what you want but don’t you dare try to use patriotism or nationalism as a weapon to silence opposition – you’re stepping on this country and everybody who’s fought to defend it by doing that, you opportunistic cowards.

  40. Carey Moore@389

    You know what’s cowardly? Wrapping yourself in the flag and trying to paint those who criticise the PM as traitors. That’s the biggest insult to this country, not criticising a PM on his diplomatic skills.

    You can believe what you want but don’t you dare try to use patriotism or nationalism as a weapon to silence opposition – you’re stepping on this country and everybody who’s fought to defend it by doing that, you opportunistic cowards.

    Onya Carey.

    Well put.

  41. Resurgent Turkeys

    The shareholders of the ANZ Bank, IAG, Ramsay Healthcare and others will not be happy if the party of business adversely effects their investments potential for the sake of short term political game playing and ego stroking.

  42. Barnett is also under the pump this week because his education cuts got real last week when staff found out they do not have a job next year.

  44. briefly@386

    To your sensible suggestions I would concur strongly about the wales.

    And this from Captain Fremantle on May 8, in 1829, near Arthur’s Head, the south headland of the Swan River.

    “The people appeared to be comfortable, they had pitched their tents on the Open Ground to gain a good view to prevent surprise from the natives….they found water shortly with only digging about two feet…the soil does not look promising…(and this)….

    “The party had plenty of fish which they had caught from the rocks and the Sharks…..are most numerous…to bathe even from the beach is most hazardous…..!!!!

    Just maybe, things are going back to 1829 ‘normal’??

  45. Go Carey Moore!!! Let alone renaming the Department of Immigration, Multicultural Affairs and Citizenship the Department of Immigration and Border Protection headed by a fundamentalist christian minister who urged his colleagues to whip of anti-muslim xenophobic sentiment (
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-sees-votes-in-antimuslim-strategy-20110216-1awmo.html) – and then wonder why your large muslim neighbour want to put you firmly in your place as a complete tool.

  46. [370
    Resurgent Turkeys

    Usually I read the nonsense written by the bludgers from a position of lofty, slightly-amused contempt.]

    You don’t say! Unless you’d pointed it out this may have gone unremarked forever. What a generous editor and tutor you could make.

  47. I’d be a bit wary about the 55 – 45 result for the ALP in Queensland but not for the usual reasons.

    Newman is on the nose here and, to add to that, Rudd is loathed in many sectors of SE Queensland for reasons that go back to when he was Goss’ CoS as well as his recent efforts. Add Brough and Slipper to that mix along with the dribblings of Wyatt Roy, season with Palmer and it’s a heady mixture.

    I wouldn’t bet the farm on it but I won’t be surprised if Neilsen turns out to be accurate.

  48. [You know what’s cowardly? Wrapping yourself in the flag and trying to paint those who criticise the PM as traitors. That’s the biggest insult to this country, not criticising a PM on his diplomatic skills.]

    It’s akin to calling everyone a misoginist who criticised the former, former PM.

  50. Carey @ 389
    [don’t you dare try to use patriotism or nationalism as a weapon to silence opposition – you’re stepping on this country and everybody who’s fought to defend it by doing that, you opportunistic cowards.]

    Very pompous! I loved it. I used to love watching The West Wing back in the day too – it was so awfully earnest, pompous and smug that it was like a sort of pornography.

    I never tried to silence anybody. What I question is the sincerity of the “opposition” in this case. I do not call for blind patriotism – but rather I think people who take Indonesia’s side in this conflict are blinded by their hatred of Tony Abbott and are not looking at the issue fairly.

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