ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

The first ReachTEL poll of state voting intention in Victoria has the Coalition maintaining a slight lead, contrary to the recent Newspoll result, although Daniel Andrews has his nose in front of Denis Napthine as preferred premier.

ReachTEL has returned to the Victorian state polling game after a three-month diversion for the federal election, producing better results for the Napthine government than the recent Newspoll with primary votes of 43.4% for the Coalition (including 4.3% for the Nationals), 35.8% for Labor, 11.0% for the Greens, 5.8% for the Palmer United Party and 4.1% for others. Using preferences as per the 2010 election, and making no distinction between the Palmer United Party and the “others” vote, this translates as a 51-49 lead to the Coalition on two-party preferred. It was related in comments that Daniel Andrews nonetheless has a slight lead over Denis Napthine as preferred premier, which I take to have been 52.5-47.5. The poll also gauged opinion on the governments handling of education (11% very good, 22% good, 40% satisfactory, 15.5% poor, 11.5% very poor), health (6.3%, 18.7%, 30.6%, 21.1% and 23.4%) and transport (6%, 18.7%, 30.6%, 21.1% and 23.4%). Most of these numbers are courtesy of Generic Leftist on Twitter.

UPDATE: Full results, including approval ratings for Denis Napthine and more issues polling, here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria”

  1. What limited reporting there is on the antics of Victoria’s Parliament indicate that the Westminister system of Parliamentary democracy
    – is being sorely tested
    – has been redefined

    What happens with Shaw and Smith as the knife edge Parliament is due for elections in November 2014

  2. Andrews as preferred premier!

    I knew he’d do it; and it would take a while.

    The Tories in Victoria just don’t know who to have in charge. Ted was a confused and pained mess, Napthine is too busy ensuring that the East-West tunnel remains a secret document whilst the parliament is in tatters.

  3. Matthew Guy says “half of parliament” is talking to Geoff Shaw. He says it’s both sides, but I don’t know what Labor would be saying to him. I suggest it’s mostly the LNP half pleading and grovelling, and they would only be doing that if he hasn’t changed his mind on the Speaker.

  4. In the Oz today Geoff Shaw says he still does not support Smith as Speaker, but he always does not support Labor’s tactics to disrupt parliament. He hasn’t decided what he will do. So, fun and games today at 2.00pm. You can get to the article via Google:

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