Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Another poll with 52-48 two-party preferred – but this time in the opposite direction.

The Australian reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (down two), 35% for Labor (up three) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Bonham in comments observes that Newspoll is still using 2010 preferences, and believes the result may have been 51-49 off those of the September election. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down three to 42% and his disapproval is up four to 42%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 39% and up three to 27% (a considerably more modest result than his 51% and 30% from Nielsen). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 46-30 to 44-33.

Tomorrow should bring the weekly Essential Research fortnightly aggregate, which we learned today has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36% but the Coalition two-party preferred lead steady at 53-47, and primary votes from the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night, which Channel Seven this evening reported as having the Coalition leading 51-49.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTel): The ReachTEL poll has the Coalition down on a month ago from to 45.4% to 43.8%, Labor down from 35.3% to 34.2%, the Greens up from 8.6% to 9.8%, the Palmer United Party up from 5.7% to 6.6% and others up from 4.9% to 5.7%. These fairly modest changes have resulted in a two-party preferred shift from 52-48 to the Coalition to 51-49.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research poll has both major parties up a point, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 45%, with the balance coming off rounding, the Greens and others being steady at 9% and 11% respectively. Two-party preferred is steady at 53-47. Also included are questions on foreign affairs, the most interesting findings of which are that 29% rate the government’s handling of the Indonesian relationship as good versus 42% for poor, and 49% expect relations with Indonesia to worsen under the new government compared with only 11% who think they will improve. Improvements are expected to worsen slightly with China and India, but to improve with English-speaking countries. A question on the importance of Australia’s various international relationships finds increases since early last month in the “very important” rating for every country except New Zealand. The new government also scores weakly on the question of “trust in the government’s handling of international relations”, with “no trust” the most popular of four responses at 35%. Respondents are not generally exercised about the thought of Australia spying on Indonesian leaders, which is supported by 39% and opposed by 23%. Other questions find 18% rating the new government’s performance as better than expected, 27% as worse and 47% “about what expected” and 15% favouring cuts to services and higher taxes to return the budget to surplus against 69% who would prefer delaying the return to surplus.

UPDATE 4 (Essential Research state polling): Essential Research has released results of state voting intention for the three largest states from its last month of polling, all of it well in line with what we’ve been seeing elsewhere recently:

• In New South Wales, the Coalition has a lead of 58-42, which compares with 64.2-35.8 at the election. Primary votes are 49% Coalition (down 2.1% on the election), 33% Labor (up 7.4%) and 8% Greens (down 2.3%).

• In Victoria, Labor leads 52-48 (51.6-48.4 to the Coalition at the election). Primary votes are 41% Coalition (down 3.8%), 38% Labor (up 1.8%) and 13% Greens (up 1.8%).

• In Queensland, the Liberal National Party leads 57-43 (62.8-37.2 at the election). Primary votes are 46% LNP (down 3.7%), 32% Labor (up 5.3%) and 7% Greens (down 0.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,061 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

  1. [
    Sean Tisme
    We shouldn’t be in Indonesia’s search and rescue zone, make it their problem.
    It took a lot of posts, but I think you have finally written something sane. Just one more step, when they reach Australia they should be treated as human.

  2. There are a lot of things you can buy online you can’t buy in Australia.

    It will all work out if you get sent an account. If your account is overdue you have to come to the post office and settle to pick up the next. Cost a computer system and data entry.

    There will be some leakage, but the cost will be a lot less than holding parcels somewhere until the money is in.

    They do have the address of the person recieving the parcel.

    Gifts will be an issue; if you send direct they have to pay 10%. A bit sad if they don’t want it.

  3. “@mjrowland68: LIVE NOW on #breakfastnews Aung San Suu Kyi in conversation with the @LowyInstitute’s @mfullilove @ABCNews24 @abcnews”

  4. BK #2042

    Yep, I saw our FA Minister too.

    Bludgers will probly be aware of the phenomenom when one is a little tipsy and aware of it but for some reason there is a need to present as 100% sober (say a gendarme approaches).

    The result is exaggerated “proper” speech …. we go out of our way to demonstrate sobriety but in doing so we show observers that we are merely a tipsy person pretending to be sober.

    This whole process begins with the self knowledge that we are a bit unsober.

    So to with Mesma on 24 this morning.

    She knows she’s incompetent. She knows her FA general knowledge is shite. She knows she’s well in over her head. She has all this self knowledge.

    So she puts all her energy into creating a pretence that she knows what she’s talkin about.

    And the result is that she shows herself to viewers as being a person who knows she knows zilch trying to pretend that she knows more than zilch.

    She talks “sophisticated”, influently, platitudinously, and with an air of “this is so complex only high fliers like me can comprehend it”.

    Many words leave her mouth, but no substantive info comes out.

    She is an expert parody of someone called Julie Bishop who is pretending to be Australia’s FA Minister.

    When she leaves the room after all the many “private discussions” she has with OS leaders, they must muse to themselves “what an airhead! what a fuckwit”.

    This government is a farce. All up this must surely be that front bench in all our history that is comprised virtually 100% with incompetent dickheads.

  5. Roger Miller at 622 and 626 gets it right. The Libs have not decided to support Gonski, they have decided to pervert it and destroy from within. Giving money to Qld with no strings attached that Newman will spend on private schools is the opposite of Gonski.
    Labor must highlight this point and hammer home the waste and vandalism of the cobbled together Lib policy.

    Pyne still wants to change the curriculum, privatise schools and mess about with universities to ” create flexible pathways into teaching” that bypass current courses and qualifications. His curriculum changes extend to changing the “what and how” of schoolroom teaching. Sounds like command and control to me and he has the power to do it. He is an ideologue with power.

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