Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Another poll with 52-48 two-party preferred – but this time in the opposite direction.

The Australian reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (down two), 35% for Labor (up three) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Bonham in comments observes that Newspoll is still using 2010 preferences, and believes the result may have been 51-49 off those of the September election. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down three to 42% and his disapproval is up four to 42%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 39% and up three to 27% (a considerably more modest result than his 51% and 30% from Nielsen). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 46-30 to 44-33.

Tomorrow should bring the weekly Essential Research fortnightly aggregate, which we learned today has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36% but the Coalition two-party preferred lead steady at 53-47, and primary votes from the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night, which Channel Seven this evening reported as having the Coalition leading 51-49.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTel): The ReachTEL poll has the Coalition down on a month ago from to 45.4% to 43.8%, Labor down from 35.3% to 34.2%, the Greens up from 8.6% to 9.8%, the Palmer United Party up from 5.7% to 6.6% and others up from 4.9% to 5.7%. These fairly modest changes have resulted in a two-party preferred shift from 52-48 to the Coalition to 51-49.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research poll has both major parties up a point, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 45%, with the balance coming off rounding, the Greens and others being steady at 9% and 11% respectively. Two-party preferred is steady at 53-47. Also included are questions on foreign affairs, the most interesting findings of which are that 29% rate the government’s handling of the Indonesian relationship as good versus 42% for poor, and 49% expect relations with Indonesia to worsen under the new government compared with only 11% who think they will improve. Improvements are expected to worsen slightly with China and India, but to improve with English-speaking countries. A question on the importance of Australia’s various international relationships finds increases since early last month in the “very important” rating for every country except New Zealand. The new government also scores weakly on the question of “trust in the government’s handling of international relations”, with “no trust” the most popular of four responses at 35%. Respondents are not generally exercised about the thought of Australia spying on Indonesian leaders, which is supported by 39% and opposed by 23%. Other questions find 18% rating the new government’s performance as better than expected, 27% as worse and 47% “about what expected” and 15% favouring cuts to services and higher taxes to return the budget to surplus against 69% who would prefer delaying the return to surplus.

UPDATE 4 (Essential Research state polling): Essential Research has released results of state voting intention for the three largest states from its last month of polling, all of it well in line with what we’ve been seeing elsewhere recently:

• In New South Wales, the Coalition has a lead of 58-42, which compares with 64.2-35.8 at the election. Primary votes are 49% Coalition (down 2.1% on the election), 33% Labor (up 7.4%) and 8% Greens (down 2.3%).

• In Victoria, Labor leads 52-48 (51.6-48.4 to the Coalition at the election). Primary votes are 41% Coalition (down 3.8%), 38% Labor (up 1.8%) and 13% Greens (up 1.8%).

• In Queensland, the Liberal National Party leads 57-43 (62.8-37.2 at the election). Primary votes are 46% LNP (down 3.7%), 32% Labor (up 5.3%) and 7% Greens (down 0.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,061 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Fran @1966 and others interested in electricity prices:

    Those increases in energy efficiency are causing all sorts of headaches for the network (distribution and transmission) companies. Really low power use during the day and night means huge variations in voltages from peak to off-peak – but the system is set up to handle relatively smaller variations. The perverse result is that in order to keep within the legislated voltage band, the network companines have to spend money on all sorts of fancy equipment.

    Long story short: Energy efficiency + legacy networks = more capital costs and higher electricity bills.

    It’s perverse the way that physics traps you sometimes.

    @Shaun T

    Ahahahhaha! dickhead 😀


    “Duty, GST and other taxes are calculated and payable when you make an import declaration for goods that have a value above A$1000 or if you import alcohol and/or tobacco products. When your import declaration is processed, Customs and Border Protection will provide you with a payment advice. The payment advice will show all amounts payable to Customs and Border Protection relating to your imported goods.”

    Sean, next time, go read a book.

  3. Sean Tisme

    Posted Wednesday, November 27, 2013 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    Is it going to be extended to include goods and services it does not currently tax? YES

    Well not if my flat-tax postage cost suggestion gets up, then it will be a completely new tax.

    I buy something from Indonesia, the Indonesian company pays postage based on that countries postal charges.

    How will you get the Indonesians to send the money to Abbott?

  4. [ Well not if my flat-tax postage cost suggestion gets up, then it will be a completely new tax. ]

    D’oh! Why didn’t we think of that!

    If we just call it the FTP instead of the GST, then the original GST remains intact! No broken promises!

    Sean, you are a genius! At least by LNP standards!

  5. 1968

    Not the way the GST works. It is very targeted to individual consumption. The Tasmanian businesses that make the fresh food then mainly sell it to companies that get the GST on things they buy for business refunded through the tax system and then they charge GST to their customers. Thus the GST will appear as being from the point of consumer sale, not production, so most of Tasmania`s produce would have its GST collected interstate.

    GST on fresh food would also reduce the consumption of fresh food, to certain extent, thus probably slightly reducing Tasmania`s output.

  6. There’s clearly a pile-on happening at the moment; Indonesia, China and East Timor are all trashing the reputation of our great country and our piss weak leader is cowering in the corner sucking his thumb.

    When will he show some leadership and FIGHT BACK against these outrageous attacks on our countries international reputation.

    Our authority in the region is being diminished by the second.

    We cannot become impotent because our leader is a WIMP.


  7. In rural communities Australia Post might be able to assist Centrelink to deliver some services but in the metro areas due to the difference in client base it is unlikely to work.

  8. @Sean/1998

    Your suggestion is a tax, regardless how you shape it.

    It would be one of those annoying red tape type thingys that Abbott wants rid of.

    And one of those taxes the GST was designed to replace.

  9. mexicanbeemer

    Posted Wednesday, November 27, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    In rural communities Australia Post might be able to assist Centrelink to deliver some services but in the metro areas due to the difference in client base it is unlikely to work.

    You’ve never seen the people lining up for Cenrelink in places like Broome, Roebourne, Halls Creek or Kununurra

  10. [ You’ve never seen the people lining up for Cenrelink in places like Broome, Roebourne, Halls Creek or Kununurra ]

    Or Clapham Junction, a suburb of London.

  11. [I buy something from Indonesia, the Indonesian company pays postage based on that countries postal charges.

    How will you get the Indonesians to send the money to Abbott?]

    The Indonesian company pays the INCREASED postage rate to Australia. ATO gets paid postage duty just like Aussie Post get paid credit to deliver the parcel. If they don’t pay the duty… parcel doesn’t get sent to Australia just like if you don’t pay postage on a parcel and stuff it in a letter box.

    Get it now? This isn’t rocket surgery AA.

  12. Good night.

    Never forget or forgive the Gonski lie.

    The betrayal of our children by Abbott and his scum-bag Poodle Pyne

    Sensible people know that the better educated the people the greater the productivity, the wealthier the Nation

  13. [In rural communities Australia Post might be able to assist Centrelink to deliver some services but in the metro areas due to the difference in client base it is unlikely to work.]

    The salient point is that the metro areas actually have Centrelink offices.

  14. Sean Tisme 1998

    [Well not if my flat-tax postage cost suggestion gets up, then it will be a completely new tax.]

    😀 😀

    I’m sure the Liberal party room is debating the merits of your great policy this very moment.

    Actually, it would explain a lot if it turned out the Abbot government were just taking their cues from ST’s Poll Bludger comments.

  15. [ The Indonesian company pays the INCREASED postage rate to Australia …

    Get it now? This isn’t rocket surgery AA. ]

    Aha! So your FTP is really a cunningly disguised tax on the Indonesians for having the temerity to complain about us recording SBY’s wifes’s phone calls? … or something? … I have to say I’m not quite getting the connection, but I’m sure it’s really quite clever!

  16. [The Indonesian company pays the INCREASED postage rate to Australia. ]

    So the the ATO will have the Indonesian postal service collect its revenue…?


    Ahem, you really do know how to make me laugh, Shaun. It’s a gift. Please don’t let the other chase you away.

  17. Sorry, the belly laugh caused me to temporarily lose the ability to compose a grammatically correct response.

    What’s your gag Shaun? Keep ’em coming or I’m off to bed.

  18. AA

    Generally i think its a crap idea but in rural communities and by that i mean small towns with only a post office and are miles from a centrelink office it might be helpful but the core business functions are very different therefore it will potentially cause more harm than benefit.

  19. How so, I recommended they did this after SBY’s toddler tantrum a few weeks back.

    We shouldn’t be in Indonesia’s search and rescue zone, make it their problem.

  20. For every asylum seeker boat that encounters difficulties in Indonesian waters Tisme, you fathead, a dozen more will make it safely to Christmas Island.

    The Australian ships around the island will only serve as a welcoming committee.

    Epic fail Coalition.

    Australia is now the laughing stock of South East Asia, the Global Village Idiot.

  21. [All Navy boats pulled back to Christmas Island Line confirmed]

    THAT’S what Abbott meant when he said ‘Turn back the boats’.
    He meant the Australian boats NOT the asylum seeker boats.
    Silly us, he did keep his promise.
    Well, that one anyway.

  22. if I buy software in a box from a shop in Australia I pay GST. If I buy software in a box from a shop outside Australia and it gets posted to me, Harvey Norman would like me to pay GST, and maybe the coalition will make me. If I buy software to download from a shop in Australia I pay GST. If I buy software from outside Australia to download I don’t pay GST. In theory I should pay GST, but how can the government regulate that. Same for books, audio recordings, video. What about web hosting? If I buy web hosting services from an Australian company I pay GST, overseas, no GST. What about insurance? What about editing or mastering or any number of things that can be done online. For companies that are registered for GST it doesn’t make any difference because any GST they are liable for is also refundable, It only matters for consumers. How much stuff that gets bought from overseas is bought by companies registered for GST?

  23. 55 million parcels
    I read that that is the total last year of foreign parcels delived in Oz a flood every day.. about a million each week

    How could the P O ever collect the GST on such a flood of parcels
    Would they”hold’ them at the PO until one paid the GST over the counter
    A nonsense… because most POs haven’t the space to hold a great volume of uncollected parcels
    The whole system is unworkable and would cost I have heard over $2 billion
    Oh Tony another mess shouldn’t have listened to silly Harvey Norman

  24. deb

    [How could the P O ever collect the GST on such a flood of parcels]

    That’s the hidden reason the Retailers want this done.

    It will dramatically slow the delivery and make it very inconvenient.

    The Libs are blind/don’t care that the processing will cost many times more than it earns.

  25. Good morning Dawn Patrollers
    I just saw Mesma on the news trying to sound impressive but her stultified, faux posh talking sounded anything but. She is hopeless. As good at her job as Barnaby Joyce was at Finance.
    No wonder O’Farrell is upset!
    And school principals are less than impressed as well. The word “equity” is used a lot.
    Close the door on the way out, Silvio!
    “Abbott’s boulevard of broken promises”. Are we going to see the media push this theme?
    How the precise comment from Pyne just before the election could be misconstrued is beyond belief. It simply was a cynical, calculated lie uttered in order to neutralise an issue that was hurting them electorally.
    “It is unfortunate that this taping that took place several years ago has been made public,” Mr Robb said. “But it’s there, it’s a fact of life, we’ve got to deal with it.” How on earth is this not another clear statement that they are attempting to rewrite?
    David Pope with some fun for the “adults”.
    Alan Moir gives it to Prissy! (And the government in general).
    Oh dear! David Rowe really gives Abbott, Pyne and Rodd the treatment this morning. MUST SEE!

  26. I note that in the UK the VAT import threshold for private imports from outside the EU seems to be only £15.

    As I understand it, the VAT due is payable before the parcel can be collected. Needless to say its a pain.

    What the policy does, in effect, is reduce the incentive to buy goods online from overseas suppliers, and instead source them from UK suppliers. A reduction of the GST threshold to, say, $100, would presumably have the same impact in Australia. The theory being that most people wouldn’t be bothered. To that extent the cost of collection v revenue raised analysis becomes less relevant. The revenue collection impact is not from actual GST collections on imports. Rather it’s from the extra GST from Australian source supplies that are made, in future, in substitution for supplies previously sourced from offshore eg, online purchases, because Australian consumers can’t be bothered with having to go to the post office or courier company, paying the GST, then collecting their parcel.

    My ex wife is English and I know from first hand experience that she couldn’t be bothered with sending gift parcels to her UK family because of the hassle with the VAT payment at the other end.

    I have seen nothing in the Australian context that analyses these impacts, so my observation is hypothetical.

    In principle, however, I have no difficulty with a substantial reduction in the GST free import threshold. It is an integrity measure to prevent erosion of the GST base through increasing volumes of GST free imports from offshore exploiting the very high threshold that applies in Australia.

    There are two beneficiaries. The ATO and, of course, Australian retailers.

    I don’t have a strong view on this either way. However I can certainly see why there is a case for dramatically lowering the GST free import threshold.

  27. Outsider – That’s exactly what the local retailers are thinking.

    Inconvenience and delay in delivery.

    That it will cost the tax-payer many times more than it will collect is not considered.

    The States only care that it might add a little to the GST intake and please Gerry and Myers.

  28. I only bother importing items that are not available here or are small and ridiculously expensive here when I know that I will pay a third of Australian retail and save more than $200.

  29. Greg Sheridan in the GG lauds Abbott’s diplomatic triumph. We are in safe hands….

    [TONY Abbott’s letter to Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has been successful. That judgment is inescapable and incontestable.

    The President, in his formal statement responding to the Prime Minister’s letter, has spoken warmly of the relationship with Australia. He has also spoken warmly of Abbott, whom he describes as “my good friend”. The President has committed to a process of consultation and negotiation with Australia to come up with a set of agreed protocols to cover intelligence sharing, among other things.

    There are complications and troubles aplenty ahead. But so far, Abbott has handled one of the most complex international relations crises you could imagine extremely well. He has been calm throughout. He has stressed the key national interest that Australia has in its relationship with Indonesia. He has been warm and gracious towards the President.

    He has also safeguarded Australia’s key interests in maintaining its intelligence capabilities. He has stayed away from the obvious political points he could have made against Labor. He has responded to the President quickly, but with serious, indeed intense, deliberation at every stage.

    There may still be very challenging days in this relationship to come, but whatever happens, this has been a solid performance by the Abbott government. It should give our allies, and the Australian people, a good deal of reassurance that this is a competent, sensible government fully conscious of the grave responsibilities it must shoulder in national security.]

    – See more at:

  30. CTar1. I suspect my view might be an unpopular one!! But all tax systems need design features to protect the revenue base. In the case of online purchases from offshore, the current threshold in Australia is an incentive built into the system favouring offshore purchases at the expense of local purchases. The broader issue is the excessive prices charged by Australian retailers for many goods compared to offshore suppliers. So there is a counter argument favouring retention of the current GST import threshold because it forces local retailers to bring pricing into line with international pricing. I, for one, would probably buy local if the only price differential was 10% GST. That said, on the rare occasion I buy goods from offshore, it’s only because I can’t be bothered hunting them out locally eg, CDs and books. If I’m not in a rush, the incentive for online purchases is convenience, rather than pricing, and in a sense I’m largely indifferent as to whether the source is Australian or offshore. But as a semi rational consumer, once I have accepted there will be some delay in delivery of my purchase, I will buy the lowest cost item, which (surprise surprise!) is invariably from an offshore supplier!!

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