ReachTEL: Labor leads Campbell Newman 52-48 in Ashgrove

Contentious anti-bikie laws don’t seem to be doing Campbell Newman any favours in the inner urban seat he poached from Labor in 2012.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 787 respondents commissioned by Seven in Brisbane shows Labor with a 52-48 lead over the Liberal National Party in Campbell Newman’s seat of Ashgrove. The primary votes are 41.4% for the LNP, 38.9% for Labor and 14.6% for the Greens, with little left to minor players. A poll like this presents the problem of whether the candidate should be identified in the voting intention question, which this poll has resolved by sticking to the party. Further questions seem to suggest that including candidate names would not have done Newman any favours, with 53.0% of voters rating his performance “as the local member for Ashgrove” as poor or very poor. That is exactly equal to the “favourable” rating for former Labor member Kate Jones, with 48.5% saying they would be more likely to vote Labor if she ran again versus only 20.9% for less likely. Further findings interestingly show up strong opposition to the government’s populist bikies laws, which 48.1% say make them less likely to vote LNP versus 31.8% more likely. Negative reaction is also found to the sacking of the of the parliamentary crime and misconduct committee and, to a lesser extent, public service cuts.

Also in the mail today were three sets of state polling results from Essential Research‘s last month of polling, including a finding that the Liberal National Party led 57-43 in Queensland (compared with 62.8-37.2 at the election), with primary votes of 46% LNP (down 3.7%), 32% Labor (up 5.3%) and 7% Greens (down 0.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3 comments on “ReachTEL: Labor leads Campbell Newman 52-48 in Ashgrove”

  1. I’ve been wondering about how to convert ReachTEL’s approval performance ratings into netsats comparable to those derived from other pollsters. The problem I have is that compared to pollsters that use satisfied/dissatisfied/dunno or approve/disapprove/dunno, ReachTEL eliminates the undecided option (usually) but has as its middle option “satifactory”.

    So I think that those who would say “satisfactory” but stop short of saying “good” include some of those who would be “satisfied” on other polls, but also include those who would be undecided on other polls.

    The approach I’m trialling is to count a ReachTEL “satisfactory” reading as 50% positive and 50% undecided. On that basis Newman in this poll has a -13 net rating (cf Abbott -1 Shorten +12 last week federally.)

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