Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria

Two poll results today from Victoria, both giving the Labor opposition election-winning leads.

The Age carries a Nielsen poll of state voting intention in Victoria, a once-familiar sight we don’t see much of these days, which has Labor with a commanding 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. Primary votes are 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. Nonetheless, Denis Napthine records a solid 47-37 lead over Daniel Andrews as preferred premier. There are also results on the government’s handling of various policy areas which you can see if you follow the link. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1000 respondents.

Also out today was an Essential Research poll of state voting intention from three states including Victoria, derived from Essential’s last month of regular polling. In Victoria’s case there was a sample of 930 and a Labor lead of 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 13% for the Greens.

And here are some poll tracking charts covering the current term:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

17 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria”

  1. Compare;
    [Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition in Victoria]
    [which has Labor with a commanding 54-46 lead on two-party preferred.]

    I read the former as the COALition at 54 and the latter at 46.
    Is it me?

  2. The Lib-Nats are in dire trouble..and with Shaw and Speaker Smith at each others throats it won’t improve
    Pm these polls Labor will win well next year

  3. Besides maybe Macedon its very difficult to see where the Liberals will make any gains, maybe Eltham or a seat in Ballarat or Bendigo.

    According to Anthony Green

    Under the new bountaries the
    ALP are on 40 seats
    Lib/Nats are on 45

    I image the ALP will regain Yan Yean and Monbulk from being classed as notarial Liberal seats
    -Carrum, Mordialloc, Bentleigh and Prahran would be viewed as possible gains, Carrum appears to have the best performing local MP out of that group.

  4. M.B 8…No way re Eltham….!

    Eltham is a labor held seat and the member Stave Herbert is a splendid member and he held it by a slim margin last time and his personal popularity which must have been the narrow winning margin
    He will hold the seat without difficulty this time as it’s a seat where environmental issues have always been big..and Naphtine and the Libs are down in this area of policy

    Likewsise they failed to gain seats in Bendigo or Ballarat in the Federal swing… so will have no hope with this swing now shown in Victoria
    Their great danger area is those 5 seats from Prarhan to Frankston ..all could go to Labor in a swing of this sort
    shown in this poll

  5. This will only encourage Labor to continue disrupting parliament, since it seems to be working. Conversely, Denis Napthine will be desperate to at least give the appearance of a functioning parliament, which is bad news for Ken Smith. The Libs will want him out of the chair by the end of the year, even if he threatens to spit the dummy and resign.

  6. deblonay

    I agree with everything you say about Steve Herbert. However he has just sent out a letter saying that he won’t be standing for Eltham in the next election.

  7. Why didn’t the poll measure support for East West Link? It’s the government’s signature policy and seems to have a lot of opposition.

    The Age says that the poll has a “maximum margin of error of 3.1%”, but a poll’s MoE is not a maximum. The error on the 2PP could be 40 percentage points or more. It’s just very, very unlikely.

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