Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Another poll with 52-48 two-party preferred – but this time in the opposite direction.

The Australian reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (down two), 35% for Labor (up three) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Bonham in comments observes that Newspoll is still using 2010 preferences, and believes the result may have been 51-49 off those of the September election. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down three to 42% and his disapproval is up four to 42%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 39% and up three to 27% (a considerably more modest result than his 51% and 30% from Nielsen). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 46-30 to 44-33.

Tomorrow should bring the weekly Essential Research fortnightly aggregate, which we learned today has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36% but the Coalition two-party preferred lead steady at 53-47, and primary votes from the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night, which Channel Seven this evening reported as having the Coalition leading 51-49.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTel): The ReachTEL poll has the Coalition down on a month ago from to 45.4% to 43.8%, Labor down from 35.3% to 34.2%, the Greens up from 8.6% to 9.8%, the Palmer United Party up from 5.7% to 6.6% and others up from 4.9% to 5.7%. These fairly modest changes have resulted in a two-party preferred shift from 52-48 to the Coalition to 51-49.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research poll has both major parties up a point, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 45%, with the balance coming off rounding, the Greens and others being steady at 9% and 11% respectively. Two-party preferred is steady at 53-47. Also included are questions on foreign affairs, the most interesting findings of which are that 29% rate the government’s handling of the Indonesian relationship as good versus 42% for poor, and 49% expect relations with Indonesia to worsen under the new government compared with only 11% who think they will improve. Improvements are expected to worsen slightly with China and India, but to improve with English-speaking countries. A question on the importance of Australia’s various international relationships finds increases since early last month in the “very important” rating for every country except New Zealand. The new government also scores weakly on the question of “trust in the government’s handling of international relations”, with “no trust” the most popular of four responses at 35%. Respondents are not generally exercised about the thought of Australia spying on Indonesian leaders, which is supported by 39% and opposed by 23%. Other questions find 18% rating the new government’s performance as better than expected, 27% as worse and 47% “about what expected” and 15% favouring cuts to services and higher taxes to return the budget to surplus against 69% who would prefer delaying the return to surplus.

UPDATE 4 (Essential Research state polling): Essential Research has released results of state voting intention for the three largest states from its last month of polling, all of it well in line with what we’ve been seeing elsewhere recently:

• In New South Wales, the Coalition has a lead of 58-42, which compares with 64.2-35.8 at the election. Primary votes are 49% Coalition (down 2.1% on the election), 33% Labor (up 7.4%) and 8% Greens (down 2.3%).

• In Victoria, Labor leads 52-48 (51.6-48.4 to the Coalition at the election). Primary votes are 41% Coalition (down 3.8%), 38% Labor (up 1.8%) and 13% Greens (up 1.8%).

• In Queensland, the Liberal National Party leads 57-43 (62.8-37.2 at the election). Primary votes are 46% LNP (down 3.7%), 32% Labor (up 5.3%) and 7% Greens (down 0.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,061 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  2. [Australia post is currently making a small fortune out of postal charges for imported goods bought online by Australians trying to avoid the rip-off prices charged by Australian retailers.

    So why sell it?

    Obvious answer: Sell Australia Post while it looks like a profitable business, then (once it is safely sold) lower the GST-free threshold and drive it out of business!

    Win-Win for Australian Retailers!]

    Very interesting!

    All evening news reports, incl the ABC have reported the online GST implementation, focusing on the $600b raised, with $2B cost to taxpayers.

    From memory Abbott promised no changes to the GST in their first term. Will be watching with interest what they do from here.

  3. confessions

    Friendly memory jogger :))

    @GhostOfPJK: RT @parsect: “Let me be as categoric as I can, the GST won’t change, full stop, end of story,” -Abbott 20/9/2013 #auspol < remember this.

  9. “@Vic_Rollison: Shorter Pyne: it’s Labor’s fault I lied about Gonski. They put together such a good policy I had to pretend to go along with it to win votes”

    😆

  10. [Staff at the largest government department, Human Services, have voiced their concerns over plans to outsource the delivery of social services to Australia Post.

    It was confirmed on Tuesday in Senate Estimates that Australia Post had been given clearance by relevant ministers to apply to take over services such as administering Centrelink payments. A proposal will be put forward to the Government’s Commission of Audit which is examining the role of government.]

  11. Player One

    Posted Wednesday, November 27, 2013 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    Sean’s scared that if Gonski was fully and properly implemented there would be a generation of 4 year olds smarter than him

    Too late!
    ———————————-

    +1 made me smile

  12. [ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-28/australia-post-plan-to-takeover-centrelink-operations/5049336

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/post-offices-not-capable-of-taking-on-centrelink-services-doug-cameron-20131028-2waml.html

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/australia_post_may_do_centrelink_6fSH5OaBAAQWRIyQY3MVDO

    There you go! ]

    Just by the by … has anyone ever tried to buy a postage stamp in a UK post office? Queued up behind a couple of hundred people trying to claim unemployment benefits. or collect their pension, or extend their overdraft, or take out a life insurance policy?

    I did … once. Never again!

  14. @Player One/1962

    Well, UK is Tory gov after all.

    When Malcolm Turnbull said that we are going to follow UK model, he obviously meant the entire country!

    “The Age of Entitlements” by Joe Hockey remember!?

  15. zoid:

    It makes sense for small rural towns which have no dedicated Centrelink offices, yet have a post office.

    If you live in this area, the nearest Centrelink office is in Albany, but if you live in neighbouring towns, you’ve got potentially a 50km drive to get there. And there’s no public transport either apart from taxis.

    My preference would be to situate the service in the CRC rather than the Post Office, but perhaps that can’t be replicated nationally.

  16. Interesting trendlines in Australian energy consumption in the last decade:

    Efficiency eats away energy demand

    [The Australian Bureau of Statistics has just released its energy account statistics up to 2011-12. It illustrates how greater household energy efficiency and the contraction of manufacturing have put a lid on electricity and gas demand over the last four years.

    In addition, petrol consumption has barely grown. The one area of major growth has been use of diesel fuel, driven by 79 per cent growth in its use in the mining sector and 138 per cent growth in its usage in household passenger vehicles. …]

  17. @Confessions/1965

    Obviously, it would be good if we had a split system, ones with less traffic in both Centerlink and Post Office area’s, and that’s including Rural/Regional would be AOK.

    In Cities or in Major (I’ll take a pick – Redlands City), this won’t work.

    But the Liberals don’t think that, like the Bikie Laws, they apply it to everyone.

    No consultation, no detailed public information, etc etc etc.

    Just done, fixed.

    Like everything else.

  18. This might be a silly question, but can anyone tell me – if the GST is applied to fresh food, is it possible that Tasmania will become less of an economic drag on the rest of the nation? We produce a lot of food, and I’m sick of people like Colin Barnett’s slagging us off as a mendicant state.

    Not that I want this to happen, but I’ve been curious for a long time.

  19. [ Well, UK is Tory gov after all. ]

    … and I had forgotten that Abbott was born in the UK!

    Obviously, he sees nothing wrong with this absurd business model, which is positively designed to punish anyone with the temerity to claim on any government entitelement.

  20. [I wonder if we will see NBN being next to be axed? Due date for one of the reviews is December 2nd…]

    Yes, zoid, but will the strategic review be treated as an “operational matter” ? 🙂

  21. My family has been speaking about this,

    And when Tony Abbott and his ilk said we are ‘open for business’, this is exactly what it means:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-27/foreign-investors-push-first-home-buyers-out-of-property-market/5120966

    “Chinese interest in Australian residential property is booming, with chief executive of McGrath Estate Agents John McGrath describing it as the biggest surge from an offshore market in his 30 years in real estate.”

    1. High Rent.
    2. Lack of protection against home owners & Agents (ripped away from the states & federal).

  23. 9 more days and the adults would have been in charge for 100days. This would have to be one of worst starts ever by a govt full of nasty surprises. Abbott is proving to be the most incompetent leader ever and Hockey a shocking treasurer. the budget will be draconian and will likely be followed by a recession in late 2014.

  24. [ 9 more days and the adults would have been in charge for 100days. This would have to be one of worst starts ever by a govt full of nasty surprises. Abbott is proving to be the most incompetent leader ever and Hockey a shocking treasurer. the budget will be draconian and will likely be followed by a recession in late 2014. ]

    But hey … look on the bright side! At least we’re rid of that “Juliar” bitch, who broke all her election promises … oh, wait …

  33. [From memory Abbott promised no changes to the GST in their first term. Will be watching with interest what they do from here.]

    He hasn’t changed it.

    He’s just implementing it on those trying to avoid paying it.

  36. [ He’s just implementing it on those trying to avoid paying it. ]

    By taking advantage of the current GST-Free threshold?

    So, in other words … Yes, he’s planning on changing the GST.

    Moron.

  39. [So, in other words … Yes, he’s planning on changing the GST.]

    How is it changing the GST by forcing people to pay it?

    I mean I’ve heard of spin before but this is too much. If you are going to make an argument it would be he is planning on changing the GST FREE-Threshold, not the GST which remains completely intact, 100% Original and Best.

  40. Sean Tisme

    Posted Wednesday, November 27, 2013 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    From memory Abbott promised no changes to the GST in their first term. Will be watching with interest what they do from here.

    He hasn’t changed it.

    He’s just implementing it on those trying to avoid paying it.
    ——————————————

    You mean they are following the rules and legislation that Howard implemented.

  44. Is the current GST going to remain covering the goods and services it currently covers? NO

    Is it going to be extended to include goods and services it does not currently tax? YES

    By any sensible rational intelligent thinking – that is a change

  48. [Is it going to be extended to include goods and services it does not currently tax? YES]

    Well not if my flat-tax postage cost suggestion gets up, then it will be a completely new tax.

  50. Player One

    Posted Wednesday, November 27, 2013 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    By any sensible rational intelligent thinking …

    But this is Sean we’re talking about …
    ================================================

    It’ll be hours before he makes another comment, he will need help looking up the meaning of the words.

    I’m guessing Menzies House does know how to use a dictionary

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