The Abbott government’s mediocre post-election polling record takes a considerable turn for the worse today with the publication of the first Fairfax/Nielsen poll since the election, which is the Coalition’s worst result from Nielsen since the 2010 election campaign, or from any poll at all since the months immediately following. The poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens, 5% for “independents” (an unorthodox inclusion) and 6% for others. Bill Shorten scores remarkably strongly on his debut personal ratings, with approval at 51% and disapproval at 30%, while Tony Abbott manages a tepid 47% approval and 46% disapproval. However, Abbott holds a 49-41 lead as preferred prime minister.
Full tables including state breakdowns are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes, and they offer at least some ammunition for those of a mind to be skeptical about the result. With due consideration to the fact that an element of wonkiness can be expected from small state-level samples, there are approximate two-party preferred swings to Labor of 2% in New South Wales, 4% in Victoria and 1.5% in South Australia, all of which are easy enough to believe. However, in both Queensland and Western Australia the swings are 11%, the former result coming less than two weeks after an 800-sample poll by Galaxy showed no swing at all. It’s tempting to infer that Nielsen struck Labor-heavy samples in these states, and that had it been otherwise the result would have been more like 50-50.
A more technical observation to be made about the result is that the two-party preferred figures are based on respondent-allocated preferences, whereas Nielsen’s topline numbers are usually based on preference flows from the previous election. This no doubt is because the Australian Electoral Commission still hasn’t published Coalition-versus-Labor two-party results from the 11 seats where other candidates made the final count (I’m told they are likely to do so later this week). However, I have one model for allocating preferences based on the information available from the election, which gets Labor’s two-party vote to 51.7%, and Kevin Bonham has two, which get it to 51.2% and 51.4%.
The Nielsen poll also probed into the hot topics of asylum seekers and abolition of the carbon and mining taxes. Only 42% expressed approval for the government’s handling of asylum seekers versus 50% disapproval – though as Psephos notes in comments, this fails to disentangle those who support their objectives from those who don’t (a ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night asked whether the policies were working, and found only 28% thought they were compared with 49% who thought they weren’t). The results on the mining tax were evenly balanced, with 46% saying Labor should support its repeal in parliament versus 47% opposed. The carbon tax at least remains a winner for the government, with 57% saying Labor should vote for its abolition and 38% saying it should oppose it.
In other news, Christian Kerr of The Australian reports on Newspoll analysis of the effect on polling of households without landlines. This was determined through online polling between March and August of nearly 10,000 respondents who were also asked about the state of their household telecommunications. In households without landlines, Coalition support was found to be 1.4% lower, Labor 0.2% lower, the Greens 1.3% higher and “others” 0.2% higher. However, Newspoll’s online polling itself seemed to be skewed to Labor, who came in 4.7% higher than in Newspoll’s landline polling over the same period. This was mostly at the expense of others, which was 4.7% lower, while the Coalition was 0.6% higher and the Greens 1.0% lower. By way of comparison, the online polling of Essential Research over the same period compared with Newspoll’s phone polling as follows: Labor 2.1% higher, the Coalition 3.2% higher, Greens 2.8% lower and others 2.5% lower.
UPDATE: Channel Seven reports that long-awaited ReachTEL result has the Coalition leading 51-49, but unfortunately no further detail is provided. Results earlier released by Seven from the poll include the aforementioned finding that only 28% believe the government’s new policies to stop boat arrivals were working versus 49% who don’t; that 56% say the government should announce boat arrivals when they happenl that 53% think the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and that 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed. The poll is an automated phone poll conducted on Thursday evening, presumably from a sample of about 3000.
UPDATE 2: And now Generic Leftist relates on Twitter that Peter Lewis of Essential Research relates on The Drum that tomorrow’s Essential poll will have Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36%, but with two-party preferred steady at 53-47 to the Coalition.
leon
[A major factor in this bounce for Labor is undoubtedly the Rudd resignation. ]
No doubt. The poison has now been expelled.
Resurgent Turkeys
Lets put this way if you have a mate that you know is upset by something you knew about, would you avoid reaching out to your mate or would you just dismiss your mates concerns.
This is all that needs addressing
[but rather I think people who take Indonesia’s side in this conflict are blinded by their hatred of Tony Abbott and are not looking at the issue fairly.]
I don’t think anyone is taking Indonesia’s side and the fact your argument is so weak you have to put this in says all that needs to be said really.
I like Scoots approach to poor polling. When you’re in a hole keep diggimg.
[leon
A major factor in this bounce for Labor is undoubtedly the Rudd resignation.
No doubt. The poison has now been expelled.]
Nothing is more important in Australian politics than Rudd, even the clowns that hate him so badly they can’t think straight will still be talking about him in years time. Sad really.
[ Resurgent Turkeys
Posted Monday, November 25, 2013 at 12:11 pm | Permalink
….. but rather I think people who take Indonesia’s side in this conflict are blinded by their hatred of Tony Abbott and are not looking at the issue fairly.
————————————————
How about :
……. but rather I think people who are blinded by their hatred of the ALP and blind obedient loyalty to Tony Abbott and are not looking at the issue fairly
[401
triton
Posted Monday, November 25, 2013 at 12:14 pm | PERMALINK
leon
A major factor in this bounce for Labor is undoubtedly the Rudd resignation.
No doubt. The poison has now been expelled.]
Lol, I can’t believe you guys are still trying to win the battle for Gillard. Out of the whole mess of the Labor years, Gillard was the biggest looser. Apparently the whole of Labor knew of the Rudd issues and Gillard still got the boot over him lol
This Nielsen Poll is pure fantasy and fiction.
I just watched the midday Murdoch News on Foxtel and there was absolutely no mention of any such poll.
WWP
[The poison has now been expelled.}
What part of this didn’t you get?
@rummel/407
Mod lib and co was trying to get Turnbull back for Leadership.
Perhaps you guys need to work on your own communication?
😛
[ No doubt. The poison has now been expelled. ]
I wonder if the electorate has finally realized it is necessary to expel the poison on the conservative side of politics as well?
[What part of this didn’t you get?]
I don’t get the part where you hate a two time labor PM based on a whole lot of lies and so much you are still posting your moronic hate after he has gone. You look the complete obsessed manic.
[I wonder if the electorate has finally realized it is necessary to expel the poison on the conservative side of politics as well?]
They have the job in front of them, for sure.
Morrison earnestly assured Kelly this morning wtte that there was still extensive cooperation at operational level.
I assume that this was an operational matter. Maybe so, maybe not. But here is the thing: the Indonesians would have been listening to what Morrison is saying.
The Indonesians might just take steps to ensure that Morrison can no longer take them for granted. On the other hand, they might just shrug their shoulders on the basis that Morrison is lying.
What would we know?
[I don’t get the part where you hate a two time labor PM based on a whole lot of lies and so much you are still posting your moronic hate after he has gone. You look the complete obsessed manic.]
No, only looking at the relief in the polls and trying to understand it. Rudd is just another politician who promised much and delivered little whose passing is unremarkable and unmourned, just like the rest of them.
What’s new about that?
[Barnett wants WA fisheries to start killing more sharks.]
Per year, for the whole planet:
Average number of humans killed by sharks: < 5
Estimated number of sharks killed by humans: 100 million
I do love RT calling other people ‘smug’!
[It’s akin to calling everyone a misoginist (sic) who criticised the former, former PM.]
no – PM Gillard was constantly attacked as ‘incompetent’ when in fact she managed a progressive and reformist legislative agenda in a hung parliament. Had abbott formed government under the same circumstances he would have been incapable to negotiating legislation through both houses. Abbott and his supporters adopted and supported language that made it clear that part of their problem was to have a woman in the PM’s role. Gillard was often a woeful media performer, but she was up against a right-wing media conspiracy since day one – murdoch was fuming that Australia had a PM he had not given imprimatur to for the first time since the late 1960s, and angrier that she was doing so with the greens and a plan for an NBN that would damage him commercially.
abbott is proving himself to be incompetent – with a parliamentary majority and a penis. he has no excuses and it is great to see his aggressive banging of the xenophobic drum has predictably come back to bite him. Pity we are all tarred by this.
[Rudd is just another politician who promised much and delivered little whose passing is unremarkable and unmourned, just like the rest of them.]
Really? That is going to be your line?
His passing the first time was perhaps the second most commented upon political event in Australia ever. His second led to Abbott and so you may delight in Abbott and how well he is going but I mourn the Labor Government and Rudd. The last 6 years were incredible and very very very remarkable. Good and bad, win and losses but not bland.
but if you need to tell yourself things like that …
Just Me
my former brother in law, biting into a piece of flake, was fond of saying, “Me 200 (or whatever) Sharks Nil”
[342
victoria
Indonesia gave the coalition many clues as to their displeasure. The coalition did not bother listening until the shit hit the fan.]
You have to be just about literally brainless not to have picked up the clear and repeated warning signs from Indonesia.
Or so freaking arrogant that you thought you did not have to pay heed, and could deftly patch things up later with your world renowned people skills.
RT:
[ I do not call for blind patriotism – but rather I think people who take Indonesia’s side in this conflict are blinded by their hatred of Tony Abbott and are not looking at the issue fairly.]
First of all, there is no “side”, only a strategy to resolve the situation. From that perspective, Abbott’s combative, dismissive, and condescending attitude is not helping.
Secondly, we targeted the President’s WIFE. Imagine the outcry from some sections of the media if the Indonesians had been caught bugging the phone of Mrs Abbott.
Abbott is fucked already.
[394
Tricot]
The shark populations near Perth used to be quite varied and numerous, including in particular dusky whalers. Whalers were commercially valuable as an edible species and were fished to the point of imminent collapse by the 1990’s, eventually prompting a very large reduction in allowable fishing gear, shortened seasons, licence buy-outs and abolition of by-catch entitlements.
The populations will recover slowly, though will take many decades to reach their former levels.
The species involved in recent attacks on humans – especially white pointers – have never been hunted commercially in Australia though have been taken at various times for their teeth and hides in some parts of the world. They have also been hunted for sport and from fear.
This is a migratory, ocean-going species. The individuals that occur in WA have been tracked round the Australian coast and as far away as South Africa. It really does not make sense for the WA Fisheries Department to hunt a species thought to be endangered….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_white_shark
[Conservation status
It is unclear how much of a concurrent increase in fishing for great white sharks has caused the decline of great white shark populations from the 1970s to the present. No accurate global population numbers are available, but the great white shark is now considered vulnerable. Sharks taken during the long interval between birth and sexual maturity never reproduce, making population recovery and growth difficult.
The IUCN notes that very little is known about the actual status of the great white shark, but as it appears uncommon compared to other widely distributed species, it is considered vulnerable. It is included in Appendix II of CITES, meaning that international trade in the species requires a permit. As of March 2010, it has also been included in Annex I of the CMS Migratory Sharks MoU, which strives for increased international understanding and coordination for the protection of certain migratory sharks. A February 2010 study by Barbara Block of Stanford University estimated the world population of great white sharks to be lower than 3,500 individuals, making the species more vulnerable to extinction than the tiger, whose population is in the same range.
In Australia
The great white shark was declared as Vulnerable by the Australian Government in 1999 due to significant population decline and is currently protected under the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act. The causes of decline prior to protection included mortality from sport fishing harvests as well as being caught in beach protection netting.
The national conservation status of the great white shark is reflected by all Australian states under their respective laws, granting the species full protection throughout Australia regardless of jurisdiction. In fact, many states had prohibited the killing or possession of great white sharks prior to national legislation coming into effect. The great white shark is further listed as Threatened in Victoria under the Flora and Fauna Guarantee Act, and as rare or likely to become extinct under Schedule 5 of the Wildlife Conservation Act in Western Australia.
In 2002, the Australian government created the White Shark Recovery Plan, implementing government-mandated conservation research and monitoring for conservation in addition to federal protection and stronger regulation of shark-related trade and tourism activities. An updated recovery plan was published in 2013 to review progress, research findings, and to implement further conservation actions. A study in 2012 revealed that Australia’s White Shark population was separated by Bass Strait into genetically distinct eastern and western populations, indicating a need for the development of regional conservation strategies.]
briefly
I do believe what I was trying to say was
Aimed squarely…….. 🙂
The relatively serious discussion of today’s Nielsen in News Ltd papers this morning leads me to suspect that Newspoll is running along similar lines.
I mean, if the Nielsen was way out compared to Newspoll, you’d expect News Ltd hacks to be dissing it as a rogue.
Just a thought.
Just me
I reckon Marty leaking the details of meeting with JBishop to the Indonesian media was a clue. 🙂
The shockjocks are freely throwing around the term ‘traitor. This is a serious business. What are the tests for traitorous behaviour?
I take a traitor as being someone who knowingly damages the national interest by actions intended to benefit a national enemy or to disbenefit a national friend. There is generally an implication of personal political, ideogological or financial benefit accruing to the traitor.
For years I have been pointing out that Abbott’s running with islamophobic burka bashing shock jocks and his toleranace for islamophones in his Party Room would have been noticed by Indonesians and would have a detrimental impact on our relations with Indonesia, on our security and on our trade interests. This has duly come to pass. If people want to throw around the term ‘traitor’, they might just start with Abbott.
For months and months before the election I pointed out that the way in which Abbott, Bishop and Morrison were talking about Indonesia and the policies they were promoting were leading and would lead to damage to the relationship between Indonesia and Australia. I won’t go chapter and verse into just why the Abbott policies were destructive to the national interest. Nor will I go into how the various specific utterances of Abbott, Bishop and Morrison were destructive. These have been well-canvassed here and elsewhere. If people want to throw around the term ‘traitor’ the might just start with Abbott.
When the spy scandal broke, Abbott announced that he would not comment on intelligence matters. By extension, he would not apologize for spying because that would be the same as commenting on intelligence matters and commenting on intelligence matters was not in the national interest. So, what did Abbott do? He stated that ‘all governments spy’. If this is not a comment on intelligence matters, nothing is. He went on to imply on national television that there had been spying and that it had happened under Labor’s watch. Again, this is blatant partisan commentary on intelligence matters. If not commenting on intelligence matters is in the national interest and Abbott has commented extensively on intelligence matters, thereby damaging the national interest by his own standards, is he not a traitor?
Finally, we come to the other part of the treason test: doing it for political, ideological or financicial advantage. A very, very strong case can be made for Abbott, Morrison and Bishop using the abuse of Indonesia for political gain.
So, if there are traitors in all this, I suggest that Bolt&Co start with an examination of Abbott, Bishop and Morrison.
As we have seen from Bolt and from Insiders just yesterday, there is no critical examination of Abbott, Bishop and Morrison. They are automatically exempt from being traitors.
Yet they have done untold damage to the Australian national interest for reasons of personal political power.
I asserted during the election period that Abbott was not fit to be prime minister because he was prepared to put personal political power ahead of the national interest in relation to Indonesia. This was not hindsight. It was foresight.
Abbott is a traitor. He is not fit to be prime minister.
[ I do not call for blind patriotism – but rather I think people who take Indonesia’s side in this conflict are blinded by their hatred of Tony Abbott and are not looking at the issue fairly.]
Unfortunately it is not necessary to be pro Indonesian to criticise Abbott.
Just substitute “dog” for “Indonesia”. If somebody has been prodding and poking and generally annoying the dog for some time, what is the dog eventually likely to do?
BB @ 426
I think your on the money.
The Farifax press have been running an active anti-Abbott campaign for the last few weeks.
Lets see if their polling is backing up that bias when newspoll is released tonight.
[425…victoria]
You do have a way with words, victoria 🙂
Boerwar
[Abbott is a traitor. He is not fit to be prime minister.]
He also puts the interests of Auntie Gina and Uncle Rupert, ahead of those of the citizens who were stupid enough to election him and his cronies
Oops elect
briefly
I do indeed have a habit of mangling English. 🙂
[ Barnett wants WA fisheries to start killing more sharks.]
Typical redneck remark. Surfers understand that the ocean is the shark’s domain, and killing a shark won’t make any difference.
[431
Sean Tisme
The Farifax press have been running an active anti-Abbott campaign for the last few weeks.]
The only anti Abbott campaign has been that run by Abbott himself, whose words and deeds have progressively revealed his vanity, incompetence and deceits.
[Bolt ignores completely what Indonesia wants – irrelevant, apparently.]
Who gives a crap what they want… when did Aussies become so gutless?
Have the Indonesians ever asked us what we want? Do their press constantly undermine their own government for the benefit of Australia?
Indonesia has sent hundreds of boats illegally into our waters yet the moronic left and the leftwing media claim WE are the ones violating THEIR sovereignty. What a load of complete horse dung.
ST:
[ The Farifax press have been running an active anti-Abbott campaign for the last few weeks.]
I’m still waiting for Abbott or any of the ministers to be be photoshopped into Nazi uniforms. While there may be a left-leaning bias in the Fairfax press, they can’t hold a candle to the rabid and puerile partisanship of the Murdoch press.
[435
victoria
briefly
I do indeed have a habit of mangling English. :)]
I expect they deserve it, vic….
Has Chrissy Pyne decided to announce the reneging of Gonski on the same day as the poor poll results so that the press gallery will concentrate on the poll results and ignore the Gonski changes
Although how you can predict the outcome of an election due in 3 years time on a sample of 1200 voters is beyond me. I know enough statistics to give you any result you want
Boerwar
But Bolt who speaks for Abbott of course, says that the spying scandal is all the fault of Labor
In regards to the patriotism question …
I’m on the side of humanity first second and third. I daresay I’m slightly better placed to help the portion of it in the jurisidcition where I live, so my immediate focus is here.
If there’s ever a compelling conflict between the needs of humanity and some political consideration here, I’m going to choose the former over the latter. If some regard that as treacherous, that doesn’t bother me.
kakuru,
How about reposting a cartoon of Abbott masturbating and writing a big article about it on their front page because SMH thinks it’s “noos”?
Will that suffice?
oops … jurisdiction
[Paul Bongiorno
I’m finding it hard to get a handle on the education funding kerfuffle except the govt seems to be backsliding.]
Backsliding? I think a better term would be reneging
Resurgent Turkeys@370
That contempt is returned to you in spades by many here, rest assured.
Parliament to sit mid-winter in 2014
Federal MPs will be required for a rare mid-winter sitting of parliament next July in a sign the government might wait for the new Senate to pass its carbon tax repeal bills.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/11/25/12/41/parliament-to-sit-mid-winter-in-2014
The English mangling is safe in the hands of Mitch Johnson.
Morrison says poor poll wont change asylum seeker boat polcy…….
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-says-poor-poll-wont-change-asylum-boat-policy-20131125-2y4tt.html