Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

Nielsen’s first poll since the election delivers a rude shock for the Abbott government, showing Labor with an election-winning lead and Bill Shorten travelling 20 points better on net approval than Tony Abbott.

The Abbott government’s mediocre post-election polling record takes a considerable turn for the worse today with the publication of the first Fairfax/Nielsen poll since the election, which is the Coalition’s worst result from Nielsen since the 2010 election campaign, or from any poll at all since the months immediately following. The poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens, 5% for “independents” (an unorthodox inclusion) and 6% for others. Bill Shorten scores remarkably strongly on his debut personal ratings, with approval at 51% and disapproval at 30%, while Tony Abbott manages a tepid 47% approval and 46% disapproval. However, Abbott holds a 49-41 lead as preferred prime minister.

Full tables including state breakdowns are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes, and they offer at least some ammunition for those of a mind to be skeptical about the result. With due consideration to the fact that an element of wonkiness can be expected from small state-level samples, there are approximate two-party preferred swings to Labor of 2% in New South Wales, 4% in Victoria and 1.5% in South Australia, all of which are easy enough to believe. However, in both Queensland and Western Australia the swings are 11%, the former result coming less than two weeks after an 800-sample poll by Galaxy showed no swing at all. It’s tempting to infer that Nielsen struck Labor-heavy samples in these states, and that had it been otherwise the result would have been more like 50-50.

A more technical observation to be made about the result is that the two-party preferred figures are based on respondent-allocated preferences, whereas Nielsen’s topline numbers are usually based on preference flows from the previous election. This no doubt is because the Australian Electoral Commission still hasn’t published Coalition-versus-Labor two-party results from the 11 seats where other candidates made the final count (I’m told they are likely to do so later this week). However, I have one model for allocating preferences based on the information available from the election, which gets Labor’s two-party vote to 51.7%, and Kevin Bonham has two, which get it to 51.2% and 51.4%.

The Nielsen poll also probed into the hot topics of asylum seekers and abolition of the carbon and mining taxes. Only 42% expressed approval for the government’s handling of asylum seekers versus 50% disapproval – though as Psephos notes in comments, this fails to disentangle those who support their objectives from those who don’t (a ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night asked whether the policies were working, and found only 28% thought they were compared with 49% who thought they weren’t). The results on the mining tax were evenly balanced, with 46% saying Labor should support its repeal in parliament versus 47% opposed. The carbon tax at least remains a winner for the government, with 57% saying Labor should vote for its abolition and 38% saying it should oppose it.

In other news, Christian Kerr of The Australian reports on Newspoll analysis of the effect on polling of households without landlines. This was determined through online polling between March and August of nearly 10,000 respondents who were also asked about the state of their household telecommunications. In households without landlines, Coalition support was found to be 1.4% lower, Labor 0.2% lower, the Greens 1.3% higher and “others” 0.2% higher. However, Newspoll’s online polling itself seemed to be skewed to Labor, who came in 4.7% higher than in Newspoll’s landline polling over the same period. This was mostly at the expense of others, which was 4.7% lower, while the Coalition was 0.6% higher and the Greens 1.0% lower. By way of comparison, the online polling of Essential Research over the same period compared with Newspoll’s phone polling as follows: Labor 2.1% higher, the Coalition 3.2% higher, Greens 2.8% lower and others 2.5% lower.

UPDATE: Channel Seven reports that long-awaited ReachTEL result has the Coalition leading 51-49, but unfortunately no further detail is provided. Results earlier released by Seven from the poll include the aforementioned finding that only 28% believe the government’s new policies to stop boat arrivals were working versus 49% who don’t; that 56% say the government should announce boat arrivals when they happenl that 53% think the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and that 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed. The poll is an automated phone poll conducted on Thursday evening, presumably from a sample of about 3000.

UPDATE 2: And now Generic Leftist relates on Twitter that Peter Lewis of Essential Research relates on The Drum that tomorrow’s Essential poll will have Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36%, but with two-party preferred steady at 53-47 to the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,048 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [The weather vane thingy….]

    Nah, I like governments leadership on climate change. Plus I think its novel idea to have a elected PM face the voters rather then play the Labor’s spin the knife leaders game.

  2. So much for the mandate nonsense as well.

    ADM might be in trouble with Grain Corp as well.

    TPP – just try forcing that on voters.

  3. What does the ‘Herald Sun’ think? Exactly the same as ‘The Australian’ thinks, as it turns out:

    [A MAJORITY of voters back the repeal of Labor’s carbon tax, while most remain unconvinced about Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s “direct action” environmental policy, a poll shows.

    The Fairfax-Nielsen poll of 1400 voters shows 57 per cent of people back the repeal of the carbon tax.

    However, just 12 per cent of voters believe Mr Abbott’s “direct action” policy of buying emissions reductions from polluters with tax payer money, while planting trees, is the answer.

    Only 16 per cent of voters want the carbon tax kept.]

  4. [ I think its novel idea to have a elected PM face the voters rather then play the Labor’s spin the knife leaders game. ]

    We’ll see how long that lasts if things get really bad for abbott and turnbull as PPM looks a winner.

  5. One of life’s mysteries is why Mark Scott led the ABC to be subservient to Murdoch in the first place:

    [ABC pay leak: Mark Scott’s nightmare has only just begun
    SALLY JACKSON THE AUSTRALIAN NOVEMBER 25, 2013 12:00AM

    NIGHTMARE. That was the word used by ABC chief Mark Scott early last Wednesday when he rang to tell one of his top managers that The Australian had published leaked pay information for dozens of the broadcaster’s top salaried staffers.

    Instantly, Scott’s summation of his day proved correct when he realised that instead of ABC chief operating officer David Pendleton he had in fact dialled Adelaide’s Sunday Mail editor, David Penberthy. And things were about to get worse. Although by all accounts the leak was greeted inside the corporation with a mixture of embarrassment, indignation and laughter, it is likely to prove a perennial headache.]

    – See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/broadcast/abc-pay-leak-mark-scotts-nightmare-has-only-just-begun/story-fna045gd-1226767312360#sthash.dp0gGX96.dpuf

  6. [Plus I think its novel idea to have a elected PM face the voters rather then play the Labor’s spin the knife leaders game.]

    You should tell that to Liberals in Victoria and CLPers in the NT.

  7. Goodness, I was joking last night when I said the good Nielsen poll result was caused by relief at R*dd finally pissing off, but it seems others are arguing this quite seriously, especially in relation to Qld. Fortunately this is a theory that will soon be tested empirically, at the Griffith by-election.

  8. However, just 12 per cent of voters believe Mr Abbott’s “direct action” policy of buying emissions reductions from polluters with tax payer money, while planting trees, is the answer.

    Only 16 per cent of voters want the carbon tax kept.
    ========================================================

    Pity the poll didn’t ask about an ETS

  9. [Goodness, I was joking last night when I said the good Nielsen poll result was caused by relief at R*dd finally pissing off, but it seems others are arguing this quite seriously, especially in relation to Qld. Fortunately this is a theory that will soon be tested empirically, at the Griffith by-election.]

    Yeah because that by election will be just about Rudd and noone else at all, it is the perfect isolated experiment.

  10. While the new Nielsen gives some encouragement to Labor (and the Greens it must be said) and while one might treat the current numbers a bit like a Chinese meal – filling but short-lived, the portents have been there for awhile.

    This new government and its leader have never been popular, in the sense that a whole lot of exciting, new and interesting policies were never put on the table to secure a better deal for the electorate.

    All we had was 5 vague and non-elaborated general policies – which would kind of be fulfilled in the next three years or so. Added to this was the fact that the a majority in the electorate wanted to get back to set and forget as far as Federal politics is concerned.

    So, an unpopular LOTO leading a party which looked no further than just getting into power at all costs, was not much of a base to start from.

    Knowing this the conservatives have tried very hard to just shut the doors and say nothing while pretending they are “flat our working” when it fact, all they have done is continue with an extension of their approach in opposition.

    The bitter pill for Abbott and the conservatives is that the Oz electorate – or at least 53% of them (with about 3-4% of this lot making the difference) held their noses to vote out Labor and put Abbott in.

    Apart from making a very poor start on a number of fronts, the reality is that Abbott has never been respected or liked and unless he pulls up his socks he will be a one termer.

    The fact that the conservative press have been furiously talking about how Abbott now appears to be more “statesmanlike” says it all, while the shameless use of his daughters during the election campaign to curry favour with female voters was equally as hollow.

    The irony is that in his first test of true statesmanship, when it comes to Indonesia, he has so far, been an abject failure.

  11. [You should tell that to Liberals in Victoria and CLPers in the NT.]

    Agree, Vic needs a election to fix the mess. The libs can’t Naptime until next year, it’s a shamozzle.

  12. AussieAchmed@309


    However, just 12 per cent of voters believe Mr Abbott’s “direct action” policy of buying emissions reductions from polluters with tax payer money, while planting trees, is the answer.

    Only 16 per cent of voters want the carbon tax kept.
    ========================================================

    Pity the poll didn’t ask about an ETS

    [ In a finding which will give Prime Minister Tony Abbott pause for thought, should he be considering an early poll on climate change, 57 per cent of voters believe Labor should vote to abolish the carbon tax.

    But the most popular alternative is Labor’s proposal to move to an emissions trading scheme (ETS). Just one in 10 voters support the Coalition’s direct action policy. ]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/coalition_honeymoon_cut_short_eadpIvJYy2dBZubXuxRaeO

  13. [271
    Boerwar

    Morrison was nice! He said nice things about the Indonesians three times! He talked gently about asylum seekers!

    At last, the inner Morrison.]

    Inner Morrison? Very amusing, boerwar. He has failure on his hands and, like the rest of the Abbott Government, is hoping he can re-boot things with a change of rhetoric. Will it work? We will soon see.

  14. [Downer should just STFU. ]

    abbott will send someone around to sit on him as well.

    Pity – the tories do “pouring petrol on a fire” pretty well.

  15. I thought I would pop over to Bolt’s to see what the Australian Tea Party Intelligentsia are thinking.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmOTpIVxji8.

    Firstly, I must congratulate Bolt for being the first MSM writer to pick up on the Russian involvement in Indonesia. Bludgers were in the know on the Russian involvement late last week and we did wonder what was keeping the MSM, but better late than never for the MSM, IMHO.

    Thereafter, it is all downhill from Bolt.

    Shorter Bolt: it is all Labor’s fault and Abbott is an adult for refusing to apologize.

    There, problem fixed.

    Bolt did rather get confused about one thing. On the one hand, Abbott should not apologise because:

    (a) Labor had suggested it and,
    (b) It is what the Russians want.

    Bolt ignores completely what Indonesia wants – irrelevant, apparently.

    Bolt does get confused about one thing: the possibility that there is more to come from the Snowden Hoard.

    On the one hand, Bolt reckons that Abbott should apologize and drop Labor in the kaka for the 2009 spying. He reckons that that is what Shorten deserves for even daring to suggest that Abbott might follow Obama’s lead. (Bolt reckons that Obama made a major mistake with kowtowing to Merkel, incidentally)

    OTOH, Bolt shows a degree of ambivalence about what else might come up… leaving unsaid of course that this will almost certainly involve Abbott himself.

    Bolt does not follow that particular rat down its logical rathole:

    If Abbott drops Labor in the ‘intelligence’ kaka then the gloves will really be off and Labor will drop Abbott in his ‘intelligence’ kaka.

  16. [Bolt ignores completely what Indonesia wants – irrelevant, apparently.]

    I think this attitude is the hallmark of Abbott’s treatment of Indonesia from before his election through the last couple of weeks. I’m not sure Indonesia likes it.

  17. The coalition made their Operation Sovereign borders a military exercise aimly squared at indonesia. How the heck did they expect indonesia to respond.

  18. [The coalition made their Operation Sovereign borders a military exercise aimly squared at indonesia.]

    They made their entire foreign policy about Indonesia – “Jakarta focused, not Geneva focused.” Foolish.

  19. The fall out continues:

    [Jakarta schools are suspending English language classes taught by Australian teachers.

    It is believed the order was given by Indonesia’s education chiefs as part of the downgrading of co-operation with Australia in the wake of the phone-tapping scandal.

    Chairman of the Perth-based Indonesian Institute Ross Taylor said four or five schools had been affected.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/19999135/spy-backlash-hits-aussie-teachers/

  20. @AA/328

    Either Joke or Real, it’s not just Abbott that should be gone, it’s the entire front bench, the whole caucus.

    ElECTION NOW!

  21. AA

    If seems fhat Finnigans is taking the piss out of Bolt. Every few weeks Bolt made pronouncements about Rudd and Gillard being gone. It is only fitting that he should do the same where Abbott is concerned. I will believe it when I see it.

  22. It is hardly surprising that there is so little support for ‘Direct Action’ in the community. Nobody knows what it is, least of all the Government. I don’t recall Direct Action being mentioned at all in any Coalition election campaigning – if it was, it was certainly downplayed. If a vox pop was done on the topic, I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the voters had never heard of it, at least among the disengaged. Others would answer that it had something to do with planting trees.

    Maybe Labor should put it out that if abolishing the ‘Carbon Tax’ would save households $550 per annum (heavily qualified by ‘if you can believe the Government’), then moving to an ETS at $6 per tonne would save about $410, reducing the cost to households to about $140 per annum. There’s still a cost, but in a good cause. ‘Direct Inaction’, at around a billion dollars per annum, would cost households about $100 each year through taxes. If the Government is actually committed to reducing emissions (which we know it isn’t), it would cost several times more. For those counting the pennies or who vote with their hip pocket, an ETS doesn’t look so bad.

  23. [Alexander Downer said Australia needs to maintain its intelligence-gathering abilities as tension with Indonesia escalates to the highest level in 14 years amid claims of spying.]
    Spot the problem with your logic Dolly . The more pissed off with us for spying on them the greater the need for us to spy on them.

  24. [Jakarta schools are suspending English language classes taught by Australian teachers.

    It is believed the order was given by Indonesia’s education chiefs as part of the downgrading of co-operation with Australia in the wake of the phone-tapping scandal.]

    Abbott has badly miscalculated the Indonesian domestic situation, thinking he only has to keep SBY happy with flattery:

    . Decision making in Indonesia can be quite decentralised, with regional and local officials often able to interpret the national ‘mood’ as they see fit; and

    . In this pre-election period, various politicians and officials will be looking to make decisions that are ‘popular’ with constituents.

  25. Yes, I also demand a NEW ELECTION!

    I think the pattern is simple & clear: the punters have strategically used the now ubiquitous polls to send plain messages to the parties

    – They backed Rudd to get rid of Gillard
    – They then backed Abbott to get rid of Rudd /punish the ALP
    – Now they want rid of Abbott.

  26. Good Morning.

    My reaction to this poll as an outlier till proven otherwise is simple. Woohoooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Evan as an outlier seeing as it was before 2010 that Labor was leading in the polls like that it is very significant.

    The LNP are going to have to act quickly to have a popular leader not an unpopular one if they want to recover from their tough agenda in time for the next election.

  27. Just listening to 24 & hear Barnett wants WA fisheries to start killing more sharks. This man needs a reality check, WA has nearly 13,000 km of coastline.

  28. victoria

    Operation Secret Boats proves the LNP are single track thinkers. Great for domestic politics but not able to think of the international ramifications.

    Could explain why conservatives worldwide seem to be slower art adapting to the new world brought about by social media

  29. This on twitter

    [ALP now in front so all get ready for the anti-Labor onslaught from corrupt Murdoch rags and chaff bag radio.]

    Should we be surprised if they start to sling the dirt towards Shorten?

  30. Went over the Daily Telegraph to look for their political insight this mornng;

    They do mention the Fairfax-Nielsol poll, they mention the carbon tax repeal bill was popular, thats it. No coverage of other results from the poll.

    They also mention Tony Abbott is demanding the senate pass his repeal bill before xmas, and implies the Indoneasia mess is LAbors fault becasue Kevin Rudd hasnt fixed it yet.

  31. guytaur

    Indonesia gave the coalition many clues as to their displeasure. The coalition did not bother listening until the shit hit the fan. Of course, the spying scandal was the cherry on top

  32. victoria

    it may not. Murdoch may decide to attack Abbott so LNP chances improve as more in his interest than bolstering a failed PM.

  33. guytaur

    If the coalition go down throwing the mud path, Labor could do well to remimd the voters that the modus operandi of the coalition is to distract from their own failures

  34. victoria

    On AM this morning the industry group, I think IAG was on. They were talking about international credits as a fallback if Abbott’s Direct Action Plan fails to meet its target.

    They were also complaining about not enough time to consult and had missed the November 18 deadline.

    This is a business group not a union. I think Carbon Price is going to be another Operation Secret Boats politically.

  35. Re Victoria @ 340: Should we be surprised if they start to sling the dirt towards Shorten?

    Not at all. Maybe Bill Shorten’s phone is being tapped by News Corp agents as we speak. Certainly they’ve got people following him (like they did Anthony Albanese to discover he had a beer with Craig Thomson). There’s probably a dirt unit digging into Shorten’s past to see what they can find. If ever he put a foot wrong (no, if some dodgy character alleges that he has), even 20 or 30 years ago, it will be front page news with the huge banner headlines and photoshopped pictures. Bill Shorten and Labor need to be ready with a counter strategy, not only for this sort of thing, but for a well-funded disinformation campaign to support the repeal of Carbon Pricing.

  36. I forgot to mention. Its not just Indonesia. Its also debt. When you promise your base you are going to attack debt. When the first thing you do is increase debt that goes down like a lead balloon for LNP voters who thought they were voting for lower debt.

  37. If Newspoll confirms this result it will be fun watching News Corpse contort themselves to spin it in the best possible light for monkey.
    Unlike this Nielsen they just can’t ignore it.

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