Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

Nielsen’s first poll since the election delivers a rude shock for the Abbott government, showing Labor with an election-winning lead and Bill Shorten travelling 20 points better on net approval than Tony Abbott.

The Abbott government’s mediocre post-election polling record takes a considerable turn for the worse today with the publication of the first Fairfax/Nielsen poll since the election, which is the Coalition’s worst result from Nielsen since the 2010 election campaign, or from any poll at all since the months immediately following. The poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens, 5% for “independents” (an unorthodox inclusion) and 6% for others. Bill Shorten scores remarkably strongly on his debut personal ratings, with approval at 51% and disapproval at 30%, while Tony Abbott manages a tepid 47% approval and 46% disapproval. However, Abbott holds a 49-41 lead as preferred prime minister.

Full tables including state breakdowns are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes, and they offer at least some ammunition for those of a mind to be skeptical about the result. With due consideration to the fact that an element of wonkiness can be expected from small state-level samples, there are approximate two-party preferred swings to Labor of 2% in New South Wales, 4% in Victoria and 1.5% in South Australia, all of which are easy enough to believe. However, in both Queensland and Western Australia the swings are 11%, the former result coming less than two weeks after an 800-sample poll by Galaxy showed no swing at all. It’s tempting to infer that Nielsen struck Labor-heavy samples in these states, and that had it been otherwise the result would have been more like 50-50.

A more technical observation to be made about the result is that the two-party preferred figures are based on respondent-allocated preferences, whereas Nielsen’s topline numbers are usually based on preference flows from the previous election. This no doubt is because the Australian Electoral Commission still hasn’t published Coalition-versus-Labor two-party results from the 11 seats where other candidates made the final count (I’m told they are likely to do so later this week). However, I have one model for allocating preferences based on the information available from the election, which gets Labor’s two-party vote to 51.7%, and Kevin Bonham has two, which get it to 51.2% and 51.4%.

The Nielsen poll also probed into the hot topics of asylum seekers and abolition of the carbon and mining taxes. Only 42% expressed approval for the government’s handling of asylum seekers versus 50% disapproval – though as Psephos notes in comments, this fails to disentangle those who support their objectives from those who don’t (a ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night asked whether the policies were working, and found only 28% thought they were compared with 49% who thought they weren’t). The results on the mining tax were evenly balanced, with 46% saying Labor should support its repeal in parliament versus 47% opposed. The carbon tax at least remains a winner for the government, with 57% saying Labor should vote for its abolition and 38% saying it should oppose it.

In other news, Christian Kerr of The Australian reports on Newspoll analysis of the effect on polling of households without landlines. This was determined through online polling between March and August of nearly 10,000 respondents who were also asked about the state of their household telecommunications. In households without landlines, Coalition support was found to be 1.4% lower, Labor 0.2% lower, the Greens 1.3% higher and “others” 0.2% higher. However, Newspoll’s online polling itself seemed to be skewed to Labor, who came in 4.7% higher than in Newspoll’s landline polling over the same period. This was mostly at the expense of others, which was 4.7% lower, while the Coalition was 0.6% higher and the Greens 1.0% lower. By way of comparison, the online polling of Essential Research over the same period compared with Newspoll’s phone polling as follows: Labor 2.1% higher, the Coalition 3.2% higher, Greens 2.8% lower and others 2.5% lower.

UPDATE: Channel Seven reports that long-awaited ReachTEL result has the Coalition leading 51-49, but unfortunately no further detail is provided. Results earlier released by Seven from the poll include the aforementioned finding that only 28% believe the government’s new policies to stop boat arrivals were working versus 49% who don’t; that 56% say the government should announce boat arrivals when they happenl that 53% think the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and that 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed. The poll is an automated phone poll conducted on Thursday evening, presumably from a sample of about 3000.

UPDATE 2: And now Generic Leftist relates on Twitter that Peter Lewis of Essential Research relates on The Drum that tomorrow’s Essential poll will have Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36%, but with two-party preferred steady at 53-47 to the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,048 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. In WA Labour would be better off to dump that tired timeserving union official from the senate ticket altogether,and start again.
    So far as the poll goes I will wait and see,but I think NEWS LTD will put out a NEWSPOLL ASAP,and the idiots Jones, Hadley and Co will melt down over it and ramp the abuse up.
    Though I think Hadley has a few court appointments which might quite him down,if the trend continues it will get very interesting indeed.
    On Local 6pr I will be interested in hearing what our local rating losing slock jock Murray has to say,at the moment he is fulsome in his praise of Abbott,thinks the ABC and Guardian should not have said boo about the Indonesia phone tapping problems.
    I don’t know why Abbott and the Howard failures don’t sub out that to their owners NEWS LTD know lots about hacking phones bribing cops ect they could bring in some of the experts from NOTW

  3. [Make him head of NBN Co with strict instructions to implement fibre to the premises to 93% of homes and businesses and government buildings.]

    Yes, something fitting, just like that. 😉

  5. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Nielsen Poll NSW Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 51 ALP 49 #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Nielsen Poll VIC Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 ALP 54 #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Nielsen Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45 ALP 55 #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Nielsen Poll WA Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 ALP 52 #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Nielsen Poll SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 52 ALP 48 #auspol

  7. “She certainly doesn’t come across that way.

    And you Petty one are a nasty little moron. Everyone should give you a hard time at this stage.”

    She looks very frail, like osteoporosis.

    Anyway, I won’t come back. I don’t choose to accept your abuse. It’s not a respectful place when such comments are allowed.

  10. nice set of poll numbers. it is about time the Libs got rid of their own resident sociopath. He has been PM 11 weeks to long already.

  11. Just me @194 – I agree that Labor should be judicious in reviewing Coalition appointees. Not wholesale sackings but the obvious political appointments (e.g. The four Howard appointees to the ABC Board from Quadrant magazine).

    Re News Corp – I agree – go as far as they are legally able. News Corporation Australia is after all the local branch of a multinational organisation riddled with corruption and criminality in it’s UK operations and that’s unlikely to be the whole story.

    Labor just has to recognise and deal with organisations that will always be enemies. Big business wants to make lots of money while paying as little tax as they can get away with. They don’t want to be bothered with externalities like the environment or climate change. They want a cheap, compliant work force. They believe in competition for everyone else and rents and subsidies for themselves. They want the taxpayer to bail them out when things get tough. Their workforce in the PAYE system can pay for stuff they want like roads, police, fire brigades and defence.

    Well, maybe they shouldn’t have everything they want.

  15. [In WA Labour would be better off to dump that tired timeserving union official from the senate ticket altogether,and start again]

    I’m assuming this refers to Joe Bullock?

    Seriously, I’m much more concerned about the MUA takeover of WA Labor than I am a single Senate backbencher.

  16. [#Nielsen Poll Govt handling of asylum-seeker policy: Approve 42 Disapprove 50 #auspol]

    That’s not very meaningful unless we can disambiguate boatists who think Abbott is wrong from anti-boatists who think he’s incompetent.

  17. The Queensland and Victorian Governments (especially the Victorian Government) should be a little uncomfortable on these results as well, as they have contributed to them and the new Commonwealth government is going to reduce their popularity as well.

    The WA result is good news for the Senate revote.

  19. The 52-48 was respondent-allocated. I have a couple of methods for estimating 2013 prefs and they give 51.2 and 51.4. Aggregate retuned with that info to 50.6 to Coalition.

  22. I do hope Nielsen are not going to run “Independent” as a category all through the next term and use 2013-election preferences for a greatly bloated estimate of the true independent vote that is heavily influenced by the vote in Indi.

  23. Could the Federal LNP’s really poor showing in QLD, to some extent, be linked to the ‘Newman factor’ – the QLD LNP government has been coping quite a bit of flack about its authoritarian governance style in the past couple of weeks.

  24. Perhaps to a limited extent, but as you can see from BludgerTrack, this is over 10% worse for the Coalition than other polling for the Coalition in Queensland since the election, which isn’t credible.

  26. [225
    leon

    A major factor in this bounce for Labor is undoubtedly the Rudd resignation.]

    If you’re right, this would account for the surge in Labor support in Qld, and suggests a big win lies ahead for Labor in the by-election.

  27. I like to think the good people north of the Tweed have had a sudden seismic realisation that certain of their government’s policies are as illiberal as Joh’s and three times as ridiculous. But that’s unlikely given last week’s Galaxy.

  28. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-23/un-envoys-endorse-first-steps-toward-next-global-warming-treaty.html

    [Diplomats from almost 190 nations endorsed a set of measures on global warming, laying the groundwork for a treaty to be adopted in 2015 that would limit pollution by all nations for the first time.

    The delegates at a United Nations conference called on those who are ready to make pledges on emissions by the first quarter of 2015. They authorized work on a “loss and damage” mechanism that would help the poorest cope with the impact of climate change, took in $100 million in aid pledges to fund adaptation programs and agreed on a forest-protection deal.]

    No thanks due to the Abbott regime….

  29. [I like to think the good people north of the Tweed have had a sudden seismic realisation that certain of their government’s policies are as illiberal as Joh’s and three times as ridiculous.]

    A lot of people would like to think that but i’d want to seem more polling before i assume Qld’s intense attack of the stupids is over. Still a 52/48 against the forces of idiocy and intellectual debasement in Australian politics cant be a bad thing.

  30. GhostWhoVotes relates that Nielsen offers some consolation at least for the government in that 57% believe Labor should vote to support abolishing the carbon tax

    As I think ruawake was alluding to, any question on these lines is fraught due to the mess the ALP made of communications on carbon pricing in the last term, and particularly just before the election (you could say either 2010 or 2013 really).

    Given that Kevin Rudd promised the ALP would scrap the “carbon tax”, I wouldn’t be surprised if, following that logic, and the relatively fine line the ALP are trying to walk on this at the moment, that a fair number of voters accept that it is actually ALP policy to repeal the “carbon tax”, even if what the ALP get presented to vote on in parliament is not what they promised to do at the election.

    It is a testament to the incompetence of the ALP brains trust (of the various iterations) that they managed to so comprehensively screw up every last little bit of messaging on this issue.

  32. The Australian has a report on Newspoll analysis of the effect on polling of households without landlines. Its online polling found respondents from mobile-only households had the Labor vote 0.2% lower than other households, the Coalition vote 1.4% lower, the Greens vote 1.3% higher and the other vote 0.2% higher.

    However, its online polling in total had the Labor vote 4.7% higher than for its landline polling, the Coalition 0.6% higher, the Greens 1.0% lower and other 4.7% lower.

    There’s also a chart showing the rate of mobile-only households to be much lower in Australia than the US – 19% compared with about 35%.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/voters-call-right-however-they-dial/story-fn59niix-1226767389101#mm-register

  33. @Jackol – in a direct comparison with Direct Action Policy – both Carbon Tax and ETS are winners according to the poll.

    I think the question is a bit loaded – particular due to general confusion about the policies. If you asked the question “would you like to pay less tax?” the majority of respondents would say yes. Therefore, I think the comparison between the three options is most telling. Abbott has been focused on scaring people about the ‘Carbon Tax’ but has made no effort to sell the DAP. Given this, ALP should stick to its guns..

  35. William Bowe said:

    If you’re in the market for evidence of rogueness, that Queensland result is a good place to start. Apart from that though, the breakdowns don’t look too surreal.

    What about WA.?
    I haven’t seen numbers like that in ages.

    Could there be some Campbell Newman in the QLD numbers?
    He hasn’t had a good couple of weeks either.

  36. The sample in WA is only about 150, with an error margin of 8%, so it’s going to look “roguish” more often than not. The 52-48 result is no doubt at the high end for Labor, but it’s almost certainly within the MoE. In Queensland the sample is 280 and the MoE is 6%, so it’s a rogue if the underlying result there has the Coalition better than 51-49 in front – and less than a fortnight ago, a robust 800-sample poll from Galaxy had it at 56-44. Newman’s dictatorial tendencies might well be prompting a backlash, but given this is a federal poll, it’s very hard to believe it would be that big that quickly.

  38. William,

    I’m willing to bet Queenslanders are finally starting to sit up and pay attention regarding Newman. But the question here is, taking Queensland out of the data, what would be the overall result?

  40. Three comments ago, I said this of Nielsen’s WA result:

    [The 52-48 result is no doubt at the high end for Labor, but it’s almost certainly within the MoE.]

    I was reading that as 52-48 in favour of the Coalition, when it’s actually to Labor. In which case the actual swing to Labor in WA since the election would need to be about 3% for it to be inside the MoE, and would come very close to being outside even so.

  41. A few reflections on the Neilsen poll.

    We are less than 4 weeks into a 3 year parliamentary term. Abbott has a thumping majority, and a largely sympathetic Senate after 1 July 2014. There won’t be an election any time soon – my guess is November 2016.

    The main impact of polling like this is that it will breathe more life into Labor, and kill off any actual plan to have a double dissolution election (which in my view was highly unlikely in any event – the new Senate will, when push comes to shove, pass most of Abbott’s legislative agenda).

    Palmer is no fool. He is a lifelong LNP man. He is playing an interesting game, though not beyond the realms of possibility that in a 2010 scenario he would also support a moderate, pro-business, progressive Labor government.

    The 2013 election outcome was a direct result of the Rudd/Gillard wars, and the relentless efficiency with which Abbott exposed Labor’s disunity. But therein lies the rub.

    The departure of both Rudd and Gillard in the space of a few months gives Shorten a fantastic base to work from. Albo ain’t no Rudd. Shorten’s position is rock solid.

    So what is Abbott left with?

    His approach in opposition was entirely negative. His key policies are regressive. He has no vision for positive change. He is, if you like, one-trick-pony-Tony. He is incapable of change. His party is incapable of removing him, precisely because of the Rudd 2010 precedent. His handling of the Indonesian crisis reflects his inadequacy as PM. The Neilsen result shows the voters are already on to him, so early in his term.

    This is all deliciously ironic, but a lesson for any political leader that promises made in opposition against an unpopular government can become a millstone when the change of government occurs – the ongoing burden of 3 word slogans rather than real policy. That’s exactly the position Abbott is now in. And as others have pointed out, the real pain associated with Abbott’s agenda is yet to come.

    And he’s a lazy politician. His inflexibility and inability to perform under pressure will be his downfall.

    It’s way too early to predict a 2016 outcome. Hold the champagne. Maybe buy a decent bottle of red or two to cellar away and crack open in 3 years time.

    But I do think, at this early stage, Abbott’s government is already in deep trouble. A one term government is a very realistic prospect.

    And Shorten’s job? Stick to sound policy and accountability. Avoid histrionics. Just calm, measured, fact based opposition. Relentlessly remind the public of Abbott’s failings. There will be many more to come, based on what we have seen over the past 12 weeks. Fascinating stuff.

  44. [243
    William Bowe
    Posted Monday, November 25, 2013 at 6:26 am | PERMALINK
    Now all I need is an apology from Seven Sunrise for causing me to watch this crap.]

    Self inflicted WB, no sympathy 🙂

  46. [245
    William Bowe
    Posted Monday, November 25, 2013 at 6:34 am | PERMALINK
    It has been a learning experience. Turns out those who accuse the MSM of burying bad poll results for the Coalition are talking crap.]

    It been on the today show all morning, so no hiding it on channel nine.

  48. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Well who would have thought!! Mark Kenny dissects Abbott’s shit sandwich. He describes the Neilson result as “a rapid recovery for the ALP”. But we know better why it happened, don’t we?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-storms-ahead-20131124-2y43r.html
    Michael Gordon sums it up better.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/postelection-poll-sends-message-to-tony-abbott-to-earn-voters-trust-20131124-2y41m.html
    Another Howard has-been spruiks crap.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-lookatme-gg-20131124-2y3so.html
    If Mark Kenny and his journo mates did their job and told the punters what the term “carbon tax” really means in relation to its ETS basis the country would be a whole lot better informed.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/carbon-tax-most-want-it-gone-but-hate-alternate-20131124-2y42x.html
    And what will our UN stance be on the Iran nuke agreement?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/tony-abbott-quietly-shifts-un-position-to-support-israeli-settlements-upsetting-palestinians-20131124-2y434.html
    And the true figures start to emerge.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/growing-numbers-of-young-australians-record-no-religion-in-census-20131124-2y3w7.html

  49. Section 2 . . .

    Alan Moir is back from a week’s absence to show that the aggressive Popeye is alive and punching.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Andrew Dyson with an alternative view of the what the term “digital divide” means.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    Cathy Wilcox on the nuances of spying.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    Pat Campbell with a cracker on Abbott’s character.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
    MUST SEE! Ron Tandberg gives it to Abbott on Fraudband.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Rowe in Tehran.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  50. As for this poll. As I’ve said repeatedly, using polls this far out to predict the next election is silly. So much can happen over the next 2-3 years.

    HOWEVER, it is interesting that the government is already behind in a poll (from a reliable outlet.) This should still be the honeymoon period for the government or, at least, a period of minimal consequence.

    I think it’s a fair assumption that the Indonesia stuff has taken its toll on the government. This has given them a bad look. I would also combine that with the fact that there hasn’t really been any exciting reforms proposed or fresh moves made. Just some cuts, rhetoric identical to prior to the election and some secrecy.

    And Shorten and the Opposition’s numbers seem to be pretty good. I’ve said that this opposition look like they’ve already got the energy in them (an energy that was lacking with the 1996 Labor and 2007 Coalition Oppositions.) Part of it might be the fact that they fell from a six year old government, rather than an 11 or 13 year old one.

    So Labor fans should take some joy from this poll but should not be popping the champagne corks quite yet.

    Also, it kind of shuts down the argument that some conservatives on here have been using when debating Coalition policy, where they use positive polling for the Coalition as “proof” it’s right.

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