The Abbott government’s mediocre post-election polling record takes a considerable turn for the worse today with the publication of the first Fairfax/Nielsen poll since the election, which is the Coalition’s worst result from Nielsen since the 2010 election campaign, or from any poll at all since the months immediately following. The poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens, 5% for “independents” (an unorthodox inclusion) and 6% for others. Bill Shorten scores remarkably strongly on his debut personal ratings, with approval at 51% and disapproval at 30%, while Tony Abbott manages a tepid 47% approval and 46% disapproval. However, Abbott holds a 49-41 lead as preferred prime minister.
Full tables including state breakdowns are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes, and they offer at least some ammunition for those of a mind to be skeptical about the result. With due consideration to the fact that an element of wonkiness can be expected from small state-level samples, there are approximate two-party preferred swings to Labor of 2% in New South Wales, 4% in Victoria and 1.5% in South Australia, all of which are easy enough to believe. However, in both Queensland and Western Australia the swings are 11%, the former result coming less than two weeks after an 800-sample poll by Galaxy showed no swing at all. It’s tempting to infer that Nielsen struck Labor-heavy samples in these states, and that had it been otherwise the result would have been more like 50-50.
A more technical observation to be made about the result is that the two-party preferred figures are based on respondent-allocated preferences, whereas Nielsen’s topline numbers are usually based on preference flows from the previous election. This no doubt is because the Australian Electoral Commission still hasn’t published Coalition-versus-Labor two-party results from the 11 seats where other candidates made the final count (I’m told they are likely to do so later this week). However, I have one model for allocating preferences based on the information available from the election, which gets Labor’s two-party vote to 51.7%, and Kevin Bonham has two, which get it to 51.2% and 51.4%.
The Nielsen poll also probed into the hot topics of asylum seekers and abolition of the carbon and mining taxes. Only 42% expressed approval for the government’s handling of asylum seekers versus 50% disapproval – though as Psephos notes in comments, this fails to disentangle those who support their objectives from those who don’t (a ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night asked whether the policies were working, and found only 28% thought they were compared with 49% who thought they weren’t). The results on the mining tax were evenly balanced, with 46% saying Labor should support its repeal in parliament versus 47% opposed. The carbon tax at least remains a winner for the government, with 57% saying Labor should vote for its abolition and 38% saying it should oppose it.
In other news, Christian Kerr of The Australian reports on Newspoll analysis of the effect on polling of households without landlines. This was determined through online polling between March and August of nearly 10,000 respondents who were also asked about the state of their household telecommunications. In households without landlines, Coalition support was found to be 1.4% lower, Labor 0.2% lower, the Greens 1.3% higher and “others” 0.2% higher. However, Newspoll’s online polling itself seemed to be skewed to Labor, who came in 4.7% higher than in Newspoll’s landline polling over the same period. This was mostly at the expense of others, which was 4.7% lower, while the Coalition was 0.6% higher and the Greens 1.0% lower. By way of comparison, the online polling of Essential Research over the same period compared with Newspoll’s phone polling as follows: Labor 2.1% higher, the Coalition 3.2% higher, Greens 2.8% lower and others 2.5% lower.
UPDATE: Channel Seven reports that long-awaited ReachTEL result has the Coalition leading 51-49, but unfortunately no further detail is provided. Results earlier released by Seven from the poll include the aforementioned finding that only 28% believe the government’s new policies to stop boat arrivals were working versus 49% who don’t; that 56% say the government should announce boat arrivals when they happenl that 53% think the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and that 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed. The poll is an automated phone poll conducted on Thursday evening, presumably from a sample of about 3000.
UPDATE 2: And now Generic Leftist relates on Twitter that Peter Lewis of Essential Research relates on The Drum that tomorrow’s Essential poll will have Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36%, but with two-party preferred steady at 53-47 to the Coalition.
Greens 11, Independent 5, Other 6.
Abbott: Approve 47, Disapprove 46
Shorten: Approve 51, Disapprove 30
Abbott has not feed the GG’s hand by any interpretation.
She is not beholding to him in any way shape or form.
In fact abbott is inferior to the GG in every form of definition possible, pity is abbott cannot yet be dismissed from office – but you never know, he is a loose cannon.
[151
James J
Greens 11, Independent 5, Other 6.
Abbott: Approve 47, Disapprove 46
Shorten: Approve 51, Disapprove 30]
Excellent net-sat for Bill.
Greens doing remarkably well again.
So are the Independents.
[152
dave
…. pity is abbott cannot yet be dismissed from office – but you never know, he is a loose cannon.]
Given Abbott’s tendency to just make stuff up, there has to be at least some chance that one fine day he will mislead Parliament. That would certainly be the end of him.
Dave
She makes $400,000 per year from the Commonwealth and has just said she doesn’t support the monarchy.
The Constitution is no bar.
Fraser got a DD based on Labor legislation that had been blocked, blocked by Fraser himself.
===========================================
The DD was called after the Senate blocked supply.
Victoria has been the ALP’s storongest state for a few years now, so whatt does this 52-48 Federal Nielson poll and 51-49 Vic reachtel poll say about poll bias, or is within margin of error.
If Textor’s polling has been picking up this kind of movement, it is no wonder he has been so bitter-n-twisted.
Any bets on Julie Bishop replacing Abbott by the time of the next election. The irony of Abbott facing Rudd’s fate would be delicious for ALP voters!
@prettyone
“She makes $400,000 per year from the Commonwealth and has just said she doesn’t support the monarchy.”
She makes an excellent example of what a ceremonial President in Australia would look like. A respected individual that is not beholden to some foreign Monarchy that avoids getting mixed up in the day-to-day politics. Her honesty is refreshing.
[She makes $400,000 per year from the Commonwealth and has just said she doesn’t support the monarchy.]
Neither did Lord Louis Mountbatten, appointed Viceroy of India, support India continuing its colonial status.
In any case, the Commonwealth is more important than the monarchy.
Looked at that way, she’s doing her duty.
Why are you whingeing? Your hero, Tony, supports her right to say what she said.
Or is this another case of Tony talking out one side of his outh and his shills taking care of the other side?
[Any bets on Julie Bishop replacing Abbott by the time of the next election.]
Please.
No even as a joke proposition.
[160
Simon Baker
Any bets on Julie Bishop replacing Abbott by the time of the next election.]
I think there’s a good chance that Abbott will not be leading the Libs at the next election, but nil chance that Bishop would get the job. She really is absolutely clueless.
I’m thinking based on the primaries that this poll was more likely to be on the 51.5 side of 52 than the 52.5 side, if 2013 preferences are used. But it’s not impossible it was over 52.
Yes isn’t it queer that an individual paid so handsomely as our GG fills a role and takes the pay every week in a job she doesn’t even believe in?
She should have rejected the job if she had the courage of her convictions.
Ms Bryce is elderly and frail. No-one is going to give her a hard time at this stage.
The GG was far more careful than that in her words.
In fact she represents what many voters believe and what the Brit royals also expect to happen in the future.
Only dinasor tories believe otherwise.
[Lord Louis Mountbatten]
That’s Earl Mountbatten of Burma to you.
Abbotts got too many problems with RI to even dream of taking on such a forminable person as the GG.
She would make mincemeat of him.
@Sean Tisme “Yes isn’t it queer that an individual paid so handsomely as our GG fills a role and takes the pay every week in a job she doesn’t even believe in?”
Given the ‘power’ that comes with the role, maybe she thought it was important that someone who had a deep commitment to Australia (rather than a foreign monarchy) should be in the role.
If she doesn’t “believe in the position,” then why not, when the opportunity presents itself, work internally towards reshaping the position as something better.
And we were worried about Huawei…
http://www.theage.com.au/world/new-snowden-leaks-reveal-us-australias-asian-allies-20131124-2y3mh.html
[166…Sean Tisme]
More nonsense. QB was inviting people to exercise their imaginations and foresee a better future. The ability to do this is essential in a leader – a role she has been playing for decades. (You should remove your ideological blinkers and have a new look at the world around us and at what can lie ahead.)
[That’s Earl Mountbatten of Burma to you.]
I’ll take that bit of cheap pedantry as a “Yes”.
You lost the argument.
Please show me the law that says the Governor-General has to believe in the right of the British Monarchy to rule Australia forever?
As has been said (by the likes of Tony Abbott) many times: she is the Head of State of Australia, not a pommy royalist hack.
Now, Iknow she’s not really the Head Of State (that’d be the Queen, but if your side of politics wants to promote that illusion, you have to take the rough with the smooth.
She was talking on behalf of Australia, not England.
@BB/172
Of course we still need to be worried about Huawei, simply because of Chine’s military past.
Bushfire Bill/Briefly If the ALP does build up a consistent poll lead over the next few years I think it is quite likely, and Bishop, as Deputy leader and Foreign Minister, has replaced Turnbull as Abbott’s main rival, particularly after Turnbull’s broadband problems. Bishop is also pro gay marriage and more supportive of action on climate change so could also present herself as something of a change in policy terms as well as having some of the governor general’s poise and class, worth a punt in my view!
Looks like that tough man act is really working out for you, hey Tones?
That showed ’em, huh?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUHk2RSMCS8
While the individual poll result is worth little in purely statistical trend terms, from a psycho-political perspective it is not a good look for a government that is seriously struggling less than three months into its first term.
Doesn’t look like much buffer of goodwill there, and once a politician has blown their goodwill it is very hard to regain, especially for somebody like Abbott who did not start with much in the first place.
All this stumbling about and stupid posturing just confirms people’s reservations about him.
The much put about notion from his backers and spruikers that he would seamlessly switch to statesman Tones was always rubbish, it just not in his nature to do it. Once a headkicker, always a headkicker.
Tony the One-Trick Pony. Rate he is going he will lucky to get one year, let alone the decade of gloriously dominant conservative rule that some were bragging about.
Still think Shorten and Labor are playing it right, for the moment. Let Abbott do himself in.
Well, it’s too early to call Tony a one term PM but it looks like his honeymoon is over. As a PB poster said a couple of weeks ago, when Labor takes the Treasury benches again, may that day be soon, it needs to get ruthless or get out. Like Abbott. That means:
1. Cull any Abbott appointees from the top levels of the public service who look like political appointees.
2. Ditto statutory authorities where Abbott has stacked boards and management in the way that, for example, Howard stacked the ABC Board.
3. No sinecures for Ex Abbott ministers or Tony Abbott himself. What was Rudd thinking when he appointed Costello, Nelson and others to top positions? That his right wing successors would look after him?
4. Royal commissions and judicial enquiries into credible allegations of Coalition misdeeds. If it’s not too late, get to the bottom of AWB. And inquiry into the abuse of the judicial process by Brandis, Brought et al may be in order.
5. Where it is legal to do so, strip News Corporation of any and all Government contracts and patronage. Reform media laws in such a way as to block further News Corporation expansion in Australia. 65% of print is more than enough.
6. Once and for all, tidy up the tax system to close loopholes whereby large corporations and wealthy individuals hide their income and assets to get out of paying their share of tax. Like Hawke and Keating did in the 1980s.
7. Freeze and wind back middle class welfare, including PPL, support for elite private schools, private health fund rebate, CGT concession, tax concessions for millionaire superannuants and rorts like novated car leases. And that’s just a start. Maybe then we’ll be better placed to adjust to challenges like the ageing population profile without attacking the most vulnerable in the community.
8. Wind back any regressive Industrial and Social legislation, retrospectively where practicable.
9. And let’s get started again on the Republic. It us absurd that in the 21st century we are still stuck with a pretend colonial monarchy at the peak of our constitution.
After all, what’s the point of gaining power if you don’t use it. Kevin Rudd was too worried about scaring the horses and his term was a wasted opportunity. And with a hung Parliament, Julia Gillard did not have the chance, although she did well with the hand she was dealt. Let’s make next time count. Like Hawke and Keating. And like Whitlam.
Woah! Shortest honeymoon in Australian political history. Looks like the punters are alive to the walking disaster area that is the Abbott govt.
So much for the mandate theory then. The public can’t stand these bozos, or their policies: it was just punishment for leadershit.
Stick to your guns ALP. and bring on the DD
Here we go, just like Sean and Prettyone, Downer and Textor, Reith and Maurice Newman, Mandy Vanstone does the talking from the other side of Abbott’s mouth.
This time it’s the “Look-At-Me” GG.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-lookatme-gg-20131124-2y3so.html
It used to work once.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#Nielsen Poll Greens Primary Vote: 11 #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Nielsen Poll Abbott: Approve 47 (+1) Disapprove 46 (-5) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Nielsen Poll Shorten: Approve 51 (+8 compared to Rudd) Disapprove 30 (-22) #auspol
Big jump in approval for Shorten.
[The ALP vote is way too high, I’m calling rogue till I see another like this.]
I’m calling for popcorn …. 😀 😀
Prof Cole says that Iran agreement has averted a war with Iran and thwarted the neo-con-Israeli plans for an attack on Iran.. and starting a war in the Gulf….like the Iraq war
_______________________________________\Prof Cole from Michigan Uni
http://www.juancole.com/2013/11/agreement-negotiate-enrichment.html
@Simon Baker – to add, in the past Bishop has been against cutting funds to AusAID’s programs. I think she has, to an extent, been forced to swallow some of LNP’s more right wing bitter pills; but that does not mean she is somehow a small ‘l’ Liberal (just one in comparison to Abbott, Morrison, etc.)
I think the chances of Turnbull coming leader are pretty slim. I don’t know a lot about the new LNP MPs, but generally the trend is for newer LNP MPs to be increasingly conservative (small ‘l’ liberals are slowly being expunged from the party – a process that Howard initiated), so Turnbull would struggle to muster a majority. Bishop or Hockey would be Abbott’s most likely replacement…
[As a PB poster said a couple of weeks ago, when Labor takes the Treasury benches again, may that day be soon, it needs to get ruthless or get out.]
That was me, and my actual phrase was get ruthless, or go home.
🙂
This will seriously limit the amount of post-election hubris and artrigabce the LNP can generate.
I mean fair dinkum: what sort of shithouse outfit falls behing in their FIRST POLL???
And dare I say: another ringing endorsement of Rudd ‘s leadership reforms
LNP losers = LOL!
On that mature note, I think I’ll retire. This plus an Ashes test win, all in one day!
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Should ALP vote to abolish carbon tax: Yes 57 No 38 #auspol
Abbott is fucked.
Mortlock Indeed, I would agree, I think Turnbull’s time has past and he had his chance as leader. Bishop would most likely take most of his faction and add some LNP members worried about their seats, Hockey would be unlikely to challenge Abbott direct, and he is more socially conservative then Bishop.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 31s
#Nielsen Poll Should ALP vote to abolish mining tax: Yes 46 No 47 #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 29s
#Nielsen Poll Govt handling of asylum-seeker policy: Approve 42 Disapprove 50 #auspol
[3. No sinecures for Ex Abbott ministers or Tony Abbott himself. What was Rudd thinking when he appointed Costello, Nelson and others to top positions?]
In fairness, I gather Nelson has done a reasonable job at the War Memorial. He invited Keating to give that recent speech.
I think it is actually a good thing to keep the more moderate conservatives onside, you just have to be very careful about which ones you appoint.
I would, for example, try to find Turnbull something substantial to do.
[5. Where it is legal to do so, strip News Corporation of any and all Government contracts and patronage. Reform media laws in such a way as to block further News Corporation expansion in Australia. 65% of print is more than enough.]
Feck that. He is already way too dominant. Wind it back a bucketload, and don’t be shy about arguing why – that allowing such concentration of media interests is bad news for us all, and we need greater diversity. It is a discussion our society has to have.
The ongoing rapid decline of the print media will naturally do a lot of that work for Labor, plus finishing off the NBN proper and keeping it out of his hands.
But Murdoch and his whole ‘style’ still need to be actively repudiated.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Should ALP vote to abolish carbon tax: Yes 57 No 38 #auspol]
Would like to know what it would say if there was a question about keeping an ETS.
zoidlord@182
This is Shorten’s first Nielsen and he’s still in honeymoon phase himself so to be expected, especially as Nielsen’s approval ratings are a bit friendlier than Newspoll’s satisfaction ratings.
+1 for Abbott is a bad rating but might be explained by a dodgy sample.
I’ve updated my Early Abbott Era Polling piece to include this poll:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/11/early-abbott-era-polling-roundup.html
[I would, for example, try to find Turnbull something substantial to do.]
Make him head of NBN Co with strict instructions to implement fibre to the premises to 93% of homes and businesses and government buildings.
SNIP: Abuse deleted.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 52s
The #Nielsen Poll tables: http://bit.ly/1iGK3rR http://bit.ly/19TaRgK #auspol
[Make him head of NBN Co with strict instructions to implement fibre to the premises to 93% of homes and businesses and government buildings.]
Oooh nasty! Appropriate though. 🙂