The Abbott government’s mediocre post-election polling record takes a considerable turn for the worse today with the publication of the first Fairfax/Nielsen poll since the election, which is the Coalition’s worst result from Nielsen since the 2010 election campaign, or from any poll at all since the months immediately following. The poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens, 5% for “independents” (an unorthodox inclusion) and 6% for others. Bill Shorten scores remarkably strongly on his debut personal ratings, with approval at 51% and disapproval at 30%, while Tony Abbott manages a tepid 47% approval and 46% disapproval. However, Abbott holds a 49-41 lead as preferred prime minister.
Full tables including state breakdowns are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes, and they offer at least some ammunition for those of a mind to be skeptical about the result. With due consideration to the fact that an element of wonkiness can be expected from small state-level samples, there are approximate two-party preferred swings to Labor of 2% in New South Wales, 4% in Victoria and 1.5% in South Australia, all of which are easy enough to believe. However, in both Queensland and Western Australia the swings are 11%, the former result coming less than two weeks after an 800-sample poll by Galaxy showed no swing at all. It’s tempting to infer that Nielsen struck Labor-heavy samples in these states, and that had it been otherwise the result would have been more like 50-50.
A more technical observation to be made about the result is that the two-party preferred figures are based on respondent-allocated preferences, whereas Nielsen’s topline numbers are usually based on preference flows from the previous election. This no doubt is because the Australian Electoral Commission still hasn’t published Coalition-versus-Labor two-party results from the 11 seats where other candidates made the final count (I’m told they are likely to do so later this week). However, I have one model for allocating preferences based on the information available from the election, which gets Labor’s two-party vote to 51.7%, and Kevin Bonham has two, which get it to 51.2% and 51.4%.
The Nielsen poll also probed into the hot topics of asylum seekers and abolition of the carbon and mining taxes. Only 42% expressed approval for the government’s handling of asylum seekers versus 50% disapproval – though as Psephos notes in comments, this fails to disentangle those who support their objectives from those who don’t (a ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night asked whether the policies were working, and found only 28% thought they were compared with 49% who thought they weren’t). The results on the mining tax were evenly balanced, with 46% saying Labor should support its repeal in parliament versus 47% opposed. The carbon tax at least remains a winner for the government, with 57% saying Labor should vote for its abolition and 38% saying it should oppose it.
In other news, Christian Kerr of The Australian reports on Newspoll analysis of the effect on polling of households without landlines. This was determined through online polling between March and August of nearly 10,000 respondents who were also asked about the state of their household telecommunications. In households without landlines, Coalition support was found to be 1.4% lower, Labor 0.2% lower, the Greens 1.3% higher and “others” 0.2% higher. However, Newspoll’s online polling itself seemed to be skewed to Labor, who came in 4.7% higher than in Newspoll’s landline polling over the same period. This was mostly at the expense of others, which was 4.7% lower, while the Coalition was 0.6% higher and the Greens 1.0% lower. By way of comparison, the online polling of Essential Research over the same period compared with Newspoll’s phone polling as follows: Labor 2.1% higher, the Coalition 3.2% higher, Greens 2.8% lower and others 2.5% lower.
UPDATE: Channel Seven reports that long-awaited ReachTEL result has the Coalition leading 51-49, but unfortunately no further detail is provided. Results earlier released by Seven from the poll include the aforementioned finding that only 28% believe the government’s new policies to stop boat arrivals were working versus 49% who don’t; that 56% say the government should announce boat arrivals when they happenl that 53% think the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and that 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed. The poll is an automated phone poll conducted on Thursday evening, presumably from a sample of about 3000.
UPDATE 2: And now Generic Leftist relates on Twitter that Peter Lewis of Essential Research relates on The Drum that tomorrow’s Essential poll will have Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36%, but with two-party preferred steady at 53-47 to the Coalition.
And from the Land of the Free –
Some cartoons on the breaking of the Senate filibuster tactic.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/24/cartoons-day-nuclear-option/
Rush Limbaugh classily compares the Senate reform to rape.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/11/22/1257708/-Rush-Limbaugh-compares-Senate-rules-reform-to-rape
Idiot Sarah Palin on FoxNews.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/24/video-fox-news-sunday-half-gov-mcduhalot-palin-on-filibuster-distraction/
Bill Maher and panel discuss ObamaCare.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/24/video-fox-news-sunday-half-gov-mcduhalot-palin-on-filibuster-distraction/
I know nothing about statistics but, assuming I used it correctly, according to a Creative Research Systems calculator the Nielsen WA component margin of error equates to a sample size of about 154.
Assuming that was a random sample or has been fixed, which I think William hints is a big assumption in his comment @ 240, then using Poll Cruncher and again assuming I used it correctly there is an 84% chance that Labor and the Greens together are sitting on 43% or more between them. Three Senate quotas is about 43%.
http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/thepollcruncher/
Lots of assumptions obviously.
The Liberals are weaselling their way out of the education reforms. Let’s see how long it takes for them to back out of the NDIS.
Morning all. A beautiful set of numbers, as a former PM more intelligent than the incumbent would have said. Thanks BK for the links, delightful reading.
Spot on with the sample size, Compass. Nielsen’s samples are about 460 for NSW, 360 for Vic, 280 for Qld, 150 for WA and 120 for SA/NT.
Actually, re my last comment and thinking it about William’s @ 240, I might have verballed him. I don’t think he’s necessarily saying that the sampling wasn’t random, just hinting it might have been a rogue. Sorry.
Re Outsider @241. Good analysis. As you say, too early for the champaign, but encouraging nonetheless.
my guess is November 2016. Of course if Abbott doesn’t go to the polls before 8/9/2016, Christopher Pyne will yap that the government is living on stolen time.
It’s the Shortening!
Hope the BK household are all better now? Am sure the Nielsen Poll helped!
Neilsen poll getting prominent coverage on ABC News24.
Boerwar – not sure if you saw my post re Cimahi addressed to you at 1459 of the previous thread.
Enjoy your day.
Work for me now!!
In all the talk about raising the retirement age to 70 little was said about the level of super.
If labors super goal of 15% is implemented it means the average worker has the around the same super balance at age 65 as they do at age 70 on 9.25%.
It is the libs freezing of super that is driving the older retirement age.
The advantages of retiring earlier is that it frees up more jobs and more income in the economy, a higher GDP and increased productivity.
The older workers retire earlier opening up jobs for the young whilst boosting the economy through the young having more disposable income and the leisure activities of the retired.
howards freezing of Keatings superannuation reforms added another 5 years to a workers life before they could retire or left them super pension poor.
abbotts freeze on labors continued reform and goals will have the same effect. The lnp is freezing planned increasing in super as howard did and abolishing co contributions whilst keeping tax rorts for the super rich.
abbotts only goal on super is to forcibly open up industry funds to advisers fees that will see less return for workers and a lower super payout and/or later retirement age.
Nielsen is prone to being spectacularly wrong.
But the CMC stuff and Tony Fitzgerald tearing Newman a new one can not have helped the LNP in Qld.
I think an increase in the pension age is inevitable at some stage, but before we do that we need to look at the unsustainable tax concessions to superannuation, especially the way in which they disproportionately benefit the better off. If nothing is done, the cost of super tax concessions will cost more than it would to just pay everyone who attains pension age the full pension.
Castle is correct about the super issue – cutting its % level means more super for the same number of working years. However castle I cannot agree on your other components. Having lots of people doing nothing aftre age 65 gives the illusion of productivity per worker being more, but national productivity is less. We need to find better ways for older people to be productive, not pack them off to retirement. Done well, the older people also lead more active, healthier lives themselves.
Early retirement was an nter generational rort that should have been stopped a long time ago. Like negative gearing. We have just had trouble finding a political leader with both the courage to do the right thing and the political skill to explain why to people. That counts Abbott out too.
Steve
[ If nothing is done, the cost of super tax concessions will cost more than it would to just pay everyone who attains pension age the full pension.]
Excellent point, and entirely the Liberal’s fault. Shorten should mention this so often that eventually even MSM journalists will have to ask this question of Abbott.
Morning all
BK
Hope you and Mrs BK are feeling OK?
As per your link, Michael Gordon’s last paragraph needs to be etched in the mind of team Labor
[Indeed, by confirming that the election was overwhelmingly a rejection of Labor, the poll results reflect poorly on all those who were party to the leadership turmoil that engulfed the party in mid-2010.
If Labor fails to learn the basic lesson that disunity is death, this bounce will be temporary and meaningless.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/postelection-poll-sends-message-to-tony-abbott-to-earn-voters-trust-20131124-2y41m.html#ixzz2lbCJ6Aw9
The WA Senate refight will be interesting if this keeps up. Offline for a few days, so have a good day all 🙂
http://www.afr.com/p/national/coalition_honeymoon_cut_short_eadpIvJYy2dBZubXuxRaeO
Coalition’s honeymoon cut short
PUBLISHED: 0 HOUR 1 MINUTE AGO | UPDATE: 0 HOUR 1 MINUTE AGO
PHILLIP COOREY Chief political correspondent
Federal Labor has forged ahead of the Coalition for the first time in more than three years, ending in record time the honeymoon for a newly elected government.
Socrates
Take care
Morrison just now being interviewed by Fran Kelly.
The Liberals must be in shock.
Morrison was nice!
He said nice things about the Indonesians three times!
He talked gently about asylum seekers!
At last, the inner Morrison.
Morning all
What a wonderful start to the week.
And to rummel crank a Co a big OUCH.
outsider
Yes, saw your post, for which many thanks. I did respond to it originally, so that is probably buried in the last string by now.
Tony Abbott may have proved himself electable against an unelectable government. But the first post-election Nielsen poll suggests voters find him and his government underwhelming.
With the Julia and Kevin show over, voters have shaken off some of their sourness towards Labor, cured themselves of the view that Clive Palmer represents a real alternative and are viewing the new government in a more pragmatic light altogether.
http://www.afr.com/Page/Uuid/24a69e12-54b9-11e3-b3c2-710930a3c276
vic
Tingle, as ever, thinks well and writes well.
The hysterical thing is that the libs now have three long years with Tony around their necks because they’ll be desperately afraid of going to Malcolm and replaying the Rudd knifing.
I keep quoting Robert Caro, because it’s true: power doesn’t corrupt (except in Qld, of course), it reveals. The public is seeing the real Tony, and doesn’t like it.
mari and vic
Thanks. We are both a little better today. Mrs BK has had the worse time with it.
So, what is ‘The Australian’s’ take on the Neilsen poll?
[A MAJORITY of voters back the repeal of Labor’s carbon tax, while most remain unconvinced about Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s “direct action” environmental policy, a poll shows.
The Fairfax-Nielsen poll of 1400 voters shows 57 per cent of people back the repeal of the carbon tax.
However, just 12 per cent of voters believe Mr Abbott’s “direct action” policy of buying emissions reductions from polluters with tax payer money, while planting trees, is the answer.
Only 16 per cent of voters want the carbon tax kept.]
Nothing about the Abbott Government’s polling train wreck.
No shame. No principles. No guts. But they get their pay.
BK
I hadn’t realized that your good self and OH have had a strife of some sort. I trust that you are both getting better.
I am sure that the Neilsen poll will have aided recovery.
Morning all. Thanks BK for the wrap up.
[If Labor fails to learn the basic lesson that disunity is death, this bounce will be temporary and meaningless.]
Thankfully the chief architect of Labor disunity has now resigned. Hopefully his spear carriers will pull their heads in and unite.
Vic,
Michael Gordon’s article is not bad, but he comes off the rails with the following –
[ Bill Shorten has made a positive but cautious start as Labor leader, but should not be too buoyed by these numbers. ]
Sure, Shorten/Labor cannot get carried away with this one poll etc, they have years of work ahead of them, but they certainly can be buoyed by the numbers – just as abbott and his tories will not be panicked by one poll, they certainly will not be ‘buoyed’.
Much of this is down to abbott damaging himself with voters who never really liked him to start with, even on his own side as we see from tories on PB who are saying stuff like, “I’m no fan of abbott, but…”
Best thing about it all is abbott’s instinct will to push even harder rather than back off – after all uncle rupert will sort things out for him, yet again.
The punters clamored for Kevin Rudd to make a comeback. It reached fever pitch. Then, when they finally got him, it turned into a one night stand. Now he’s gone, unlamented and irrelevant.
They put Abbott in his place. This was Abbott who put the hard word on them, made their lives a misery with his trash-talking of the economy and wrecking of the parliament for four years. He was persistent, relentless and just wouldn’t take no for an answer. He was the cock-sure suitor who promises “the best night in bed you’ve ever had” to the beguiled debutante, flattered by all the attention.
He even had a makeover – changed his cheap suit for something more sartorial, got one of those “conservative” hairstyles, lowered his tone, and told us he was a statesman.
So the punters finally pulled their pants down and let him have his wicked way.
Now it’s the next morning. The cold light of day has confirmed the worst. It was all a line. The public was just another scalp on his belt of conquests. The bloke they knew in their hearts was a con man has turned out to be just that.
They’d hoped it would be different, that they would get better treatment than others had, that the whispered sweet nothings he uttered were genuine. But they weren’t.
Now that he’s in office it turns out he IS going to cobble the NBN they want and need so badly. He IS going to raise taxes on lower incomes and reduce them for the high rollers. He IS intending to reduce wages, cut education spending and and borrow even more money than those Labor wasters.
He’s upset Indonesia, he’s had his snout in the trough, being so greedy that he even claimed money for private weddings and “charity” sports events.
He didn’t have any policies, after all, no plans for the future like he said he had when he was trying to seduce us. Turns out those stories he told us about being ready to take over government at any time in the past 3 years were just bragging. He had nothing.
He wasn’t so tough as he claimed, either. At the first sign of resistance from the neighbours his macho promises of standing up to them went to water, and he spent days crafting a grovelling letter to them, giving them just about everything they wanted.
So, in the cold light of day, the promises he whispered have turned to vapour. He got his scalp, but, I suspect, hell hath no fury like an electorate scorned.
BW @271 – that was unlike any Scott Morrison interview I’ve ever seem. He sounded calm and almost reasonable. He was respectful of Indonesia. The usual bluster was dialled right down. The word must have gone out to Ministers and Liberal MPs to walk on eggshells when talking about anything relating to Indonesia.
Boerwar
Yes Laura tingle is always good value
BK
Glad to hear that you and Mrs BK are on the mend
Meanwhile in Vic state politics
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/mps-to-deliver-blunt-message-to-napthine-fix-it-or-lose-poll/story-e6frgczx-1226767374964#
MPs to deliver blunt message to Napthine fix it or lose poll
Abbott increasingly puts me in mind of a terrier who just caught the semi-trailer he’s been chasing.
dave
Michael Gordon is probably trying to say that team Labor should not get too confident. Things can turn around very quickly
Steve777
Did Morrison say anything about turning boats back?
Grog sums it up perfectly on twitter
[To recap: no boat turnaround, no budget emergency, no debt limit problem, no APS “natural attrition” & now no Gonski “unity ticket”]
Newspoll is due tomorrow. Will be interesting to see what they come up with
Labor and the Greens need a 7% primary vote swing to get three quotas between them in the WA Senate revote if it happens. Leaving aside the latest Nielsen, Bludgertrack is currently showing a 4% swing for the WA House vote. Add a few points because a revote may be like a byelection and it does start to look interesting, although of course that’s unpredictable.
It would be a bit unfair if you worry about the left right split, because the right got 4 the first time whichever way it went and probably deserved it, but maybe it will make up for the NSW result where a 3:3 split may have been fairer.
[To recap: no boat turnaround, no budget emergency, no debt limit problem, no APS “natural attrition” & now no Gonski “unity ticket”]
Remember that time-honoured saying: oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them.
Still, 3 years to go and plenty of time for the coalition to turn things around.
victoria
Abbott is definitely the PM of No.
[272
mikehilliard
Posted Monday, November 25, 2013 at 8:06 am | PERMALINK
Morning all
What a wonderful start to the week.
And to rummel crank a Co a big OUCH.]
Oh well, that’s life.
Perhaps I can start complaining about the bias media rigging the polls 🙂
Kitney –
[ Voters suddenly seem to have changed their minds about the Labor Party.
And you don’t have to look far to see why.
The first opinion poll since the formal end of the years of leadership turmoil that surrounded Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard has shown a bounce in Labor’s vote.
It is no coincidence that the jump in Labor’s primary support in the first post-election The Australian Financial Review/Nielsen poll has followed the resignation from federal Parliament of Rudd. The poison from the bitter rivalry between Rudd and Gillard has been purged.
The political cost of that rivalry was massive – a minority government in 2010 and heavy defeat in 2013.
The remarkable Labor bounce in this new poll confirms a lot of potential Labor voters who could not bring themselves to vote for a Labor Party divided against itself over the competing ambitions of Rudd and Gillard are prepared to come back to Labor now that they have gone.
…Shorten has been telling colleagues he was convinced it would be possible to win the next election because of voters’ problems with Abbott.]
http://www.afr.com/p/national/end_look_gillard_rudd_era_has_voters_ULiugxvQHjhEHbALHmmESO
Turnbull will have a spring in his step this morning as well…
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Nielsen Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45 ALP 55 #auspol]
I love the smell of Rogue Poll in the Morning.
45% TPP to LNP in Queensland? Pull the other one!!!
[ rummel
Posted Monday, November 25, 2013 at 8:51 am | Permalink
272
mikehilliard
Posted Monday, November 25, 2013 at 8:06 am | PERMALINK
Morning all
What a wonderful start to the week.
And to rummel crank a Co a big OUCH.
Oh well, that’s life.
Perhaps I can start complaining about the bias media rigging the polls ]
Nah the next step for you if the Polls keep going this way will be for you to start saying (again) you never liked abbott or his policies anyway.
The weather vane thingy….
Sean Tisme@297
Is that the best bolt could come up with?
It looks as if a considerable number of the 66% of Liberals who followed Abbott and the Nationals into the climate-change-is-crap blind alley are also having major second thoughts.