BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

The second batch of polling since Kevin Rudd’s leadership takeover has been even more encouraging for Labor than the first, pushing them into the lead on both the BludgerTrack two-party vote and seat projection.

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan this week have pushed Labor over the line into majority territory on both the seat projection and two-party preferred in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The outstanding fact of the present seat projection is that Labor continues to hold the ground where Queensland’s large clump of marginal seats is located. New state breakdowns from Newspoll and Morgan have helped iron out a few quirky results from last week, namely a four-seat loss for Labor in Victoria and a two-seat gain in Western Australia. The state projections in particular should begin to stabilise now that a deeper pool of post-leadership change data is becoming available.

UPDATE: AMR Research has a national online poll of 1107 which turns the tables on the Liberals by showing Labor 51-49 ahead on the present arrangement, but 57-43 behind if Malcolm Turnbull were leader. The primary votes are 42% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 7% for the Greens. This is AMR Research’s second foray into national political polling, the first being a poll conducted in March was roughly in line with the polling trend of the time.

UPDATE 2: ReachTEL has published results of a union-commissioned poll of federal and state voting intention in Queensland, which at federal level has Labor on 40.8%, the Coalition on 44.2%, the Greens on 4.4%, Katter’s Australian Party on 3.9% and the Palmer United Party on 4.6%. Applying 2010 election preferences to this, with everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens condensed into “others”, returns a result of 52-48 to the Coalition, a swing of 3% which if uniform would net Labor six seats. The sample size for the poll was 1613. I’ve covered the state aspects of it as an update to my earlier Queensland Newspoll post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,439 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

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  3. confessions@2194

    jv:

    That creature you allude to managed to legislate a substantial amount of Labor’s agenda when her predecessor could not.

    Yes, it was a lot easier when she only needed to get the support of the Greens in the Senate and not Greens + Xenephon + Fielding.

    Just a small fact you and others continually overlook. It’s OK though, I don’t mind reminding you.

  4. On the subject of refugees, I can claim to have actually helped an applicant for refugee status succeed in her appeal to the Refugee Review Tribunal. The person concerned is a Tamil from Malaysia. She arrived here on a tourist visa and soon afterwards applied for and was refused protection. She was advised by friends to appeal and, through a friend in the local Malay community, was introduced to me. She asked me for work, but was unable to provide a Tax File Number, so I could not offer her more than a couple of weeks work – essentially cash from my own pocket – and to try to help in recording her story and arguing for a favourable Review. Her story is not of a person in flight from war or physical threat. But it is a story of persecution and, at times, inexpressible sorrow, courage and dignity.

    From the time she left school, at the age of 16, “K” endured recurring persecution at work. This, it seems, was her fate first as a young female and then as a vulnerable member of a religious minority. Later on, as a separated – but not divorced – woman with young children she had to deal with the consequences of exclusion by her own family and community. K left her husband because of his drunkenness and violence, but would not divorce him because of the disgrace this would bring her children. This placed her in the position of a social outcast – essentially, almost in the position of a prostitute – and, despite this, K then had to try to find a way to support herself and her two very small children.

    Unable to obtain adequate employment because of her religious affiliation and ethnic heritage, and denied any child support because of her marital status, she eventually lost custody of her two children. They were essentially “taken” by her husband’s family and for more than 10 years K was denied any private physical or verbal contact with them.

    Eventually, rejected by her own family and community and in debt, and after trying to start her own small businesses, K found her only legal means of eking out any money was to sell lottery tickets on commission in Kuala Lumpur. This employment only added to her shame, intensifying both her social exclusion and her poverty. Despairing of her hopes for reunion with her children, and as a last resort, K borrowed the money to come to this country. When I met her she was unable to work here, was essentially destitute and, other than taking some cash-work as vegetable packer, had no income. She was wholly reliant on the small charity of some local Malay Tamils. K had also effectively been written off by her immigration agent, who charged her $3,000 and yet completely failed to represent her to the Department. She faced almost certain arrest and deportation.

    I have to say that while she was not in fear of her life, she had certainly experienced a life a perennial deprivation, persecution and personal grief that is difficult to measure. So I wrote all the details down and helped her put her records together in a form that could be submitted to RRT. She had some help from, I think, the Red Cross in dealing with the Tribunal.

    Last night she came to my office. I was working late, as has lately been my need. She pulled up in an old Ford wagon outside my door and called out to me quite tentatively. I couldn’t quite see her face, it being unlit outside my building. At first I did not know who was calling me, and then she stepped into the light. K was alone and a bit hesitant, but also clearly happy. She declared that her hearing had taken place. The Tribunal had approved her appeal and she was expecting to be granted a visa within a few days. In the meantime, she had also been given a tax file number. She was – as you can imagine – just bubbling with joy as she told me this. She has been able to take a job as a truck driver, working with some other Tamils here in Perth. She will soon have enough money to be able to have her younger child – her now teenaged daughter – restored to her care. K’s many years of suffering appear to be over.

    Justice can be so simple sometimes, and so very humbling. July 2013 has been a good month for settling wrongs, and I am very proud to have helped her.

  5. [ I repeat: Labor removed the weak link and got stuff done.

    the weak link who is now your ALP Prime Minister????]

    Mod,

    It’s kind of like, we love Kevin but we don’t want to be with him.

    It’s a complicated emotion…

  8. Thanks #LNPfilth now we are having trouble recruit a CEO for the NBN because of your whining.
    [ “I have spoken to a few people in the last couple of months who are potential contenders for the role and three of them have said there is no way they would take it. The money is great but they would not be prepared to put themselves through what Quigley has had to go through.”

    Brown said the NBN Co CEO had an awful job.

    “You are squeezed between two political parties and the media. You would have to be very brave to take this role before the election without knowing who your bosses would be and what sort of the network you’d be rolling out. And it is going to need someone who is willing to go down to Canberra every three months and get their feet put in front of the fire and be publicly questioned in Parliamentary Committee hearings.”
    ]
    http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/government-it/nbn-is-not-in-crisis-quigley-20130712-hv0w5.html

  13. ML:

    Yes, it’s unfortunate the weak link has come back, but at least on this occasion Caucus can’t say it didnt’ know what it was signing up to.

    Now, about the Liberal party. When does Abbott get the chop?

  16. You know how good is Rudd?

    As some here may know, I’m opposed to same sex marriage and have made my views clear.

    I’ve had numerous debates with quite a few Bludgers on the issue, however none have even remotely gone close to changing my mind.

    Except Rudd that is?

    I’m still against it, but Rudd said this;

    if it really means so much to so many people and it makes a difference to whether they’re happy or not, why not allow it?

    Fair enough, a better line of argument than I’ve heard around here 😛

  17. Evan Parsons

    Haven’t you nominated Maxine for Bennelong?

    Or are you still in Bart Simpson mode? A juvenile with a smarty lip and nothing else going for you? I expect you still make anonymous phone calls and think it funny.

    You should be in seventh heaven with Rudd back at the helm. Instead, you’re still feeling the pain.

    Here, grab a dictionary and look up the meaning of ‘graciousness.’

    I don’t expect you’ll get it. You’re in bad company; DTT still can’t grasp the meaning, nor bemused, for that matter.

  21. @davidwh/2319

    Is that even possible for an Abbott to be a inflatable one so we can put a pin in him and “make him” go away?

  22. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 10:31 pm | PERMALINK
    Thanks #LNPfilth now we are having trouble recruit a CEO for the NBN because of your whining.]

    …but we were hearing, just last night, how wonderful everything was travelling with regards to the NBN!

    What happened in the last 24 hours? Now no-one wants the poisoned chalice apparently, after it was a triumph of masterful management just hours ago.

  26. Remember what Laura Tingle had to say about the Slipper/Ashby saga when the story firat broke

    [But the path of such stories so often proves to be more complicated than the first set of allegations would suggest.

    Remember Godwin Grech? There is a link in the two controversies in that Lewis broke both stories.

    But what is more significant to remember is how, for maybe five hours one Friday night in 2009, it appeared that a Treasury officer had implicated not just the prime minister but also the treasurer in activity that could have cost both of them their jobs.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/no_one_stays_clean_in_mud_fight_SrX4XX5iHHo8QrXj3oFiGN

  29. [Look at the number of women with commercial radio gigs to right-of-centre audiences.]

    What difference does it make whether it is right of centre or left of centre or centre?

    She is a woman, and she led the radio ratings, so the argument that women do not have the voice of authority is ludicrous.

    If you are talking about the ultra right, aren’t they monarchists?

    Who is the Monarch again?

  30. [ An inflatable Kevin. If you bit him on the bum would he fart in your face and fly away? ]

    It’s a bit hard to tell. The real one does that as well.

  31. The nbn is fine, no problems there. It is dealing with the #lnpfilth that is putting people off, as the articles states.

  32. New2This

    Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    Maybe labor could preselect an inflatable Kevin Kardashian for each seat…
    ——————————————-

    they would still have more life in them than the Coalition front bench

  33. Its nice to see you insulting someone different to the person you intend to vote in as Prime Minister at least, Puff!

  36. Swampy:

    [Quite bizarrely, the Greens have reduced being “left” to mean an unquestioned support for uncontrolled migration of right-wing homophobic (future Liberal voting) religious people.]

    Hmmm … xenophobic strawman …

  37. Mod lib,
    One woman and therefore there is no problem. That is up there in the heights of sexism, you know.

  39. William:

    [I’ve never known Madonna King to be with any radio station other than the ABC (which she chucked in a year or two ago). Someone may correct me if I’m wrong.]

    You’re probably right. I thought she was on a commercial Queensland station. Not sure how I worked that out. She was very right-of-centre, but that’s no excuse.

  40. The merde beneath my shoe is preferable as PM to the anus of the skunk that deposited the merde on the footpath.

  41. Centre
    [if it really means so much to so many people and it makes a difference to whether they’re happy or not, why not allow it?

    Fair enough, a better line of argument than I’ve heard around here :P]

    I’ve said that, as have others here (“Who does equality hurt?”) but the real issue is why didn’t you think of it yourself? Haven’t you ever put yourself in others’ shoes on issues of discrimination?

  44. New2this
    Why don’t you crawl back into the stinking Coalition carcase with the rest of the writhing maggots before a magpie devours you?

  48. William
    [Struggling to get my head around that one, Puff.]

    My head is staying right out of that struggle. That sort of thing sticks.

  50. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 10:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Bilbo
    Keep going, you will get there.]

    William:

    Puff is arguing that the anus is worse than the shit*

    * I think this is to show us how low the political debate has sunk in Australia, but could be wrong** :devil:

    ** DN thinks I usually am

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