New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan this week have pushed Labor over the line into majority territory on both the seat projection and two-party preferred in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The outstanding fact of the present seat projection is that Labor continues to hold the ground where Queensland’s large clump of marginal seats is located. New state breakdowns from Newspoll and Morgan have helped iron out a few quirky results from last week, namely a four-seat loss for Labor in Victoria and a two-seat gain in Western Australia. The state projections in particular should begin to stabilise now that a deeper pool of post-leadership change data is becoming available.
UPDATE: AMR Research has a national online poll of 1107 which turns the tables on the Liberals by showing Labor 51-49 ahead on the present arrangement, but 57-43 behind if Malcolm Turnbull were leader. The primary votes are 42% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 7% for the Greens. This is AMR Research’s second foray into national political polling, the first being a poll conducted in March was roughly in line with the polling trend of the time.
UPDATE 2: ReachTEL has published results of a union-commissioned poll of federal and state voting intention in Queensland, which at federal level has Labor on 40.8%, the Coalition on 44.2%, the Greens on 4.4%, Katter’s Australian Party on 3.9% and the Palmer United Party on 4.6%. Applying 2010 election preferences to this, with everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens condensed into “others”, returns a result of 52-48 to the Coalition, a swing of 3% which if uniform would net Labor six seats. The sample size for the poll was 1613. I’ve covered the state aspects of it as an update to my earlier Queensland Newspoll post.
“Its a raggy old cricket ball we wouldn’t let the dog play with”. Aaahh, the commentary is as much the joy as the game itself.
[Where do you put the blame for East Timor?]
With Gough Whitlam.
[Where do you put the blame for the Mining Tax which doesn’t recover any funds?]
For the former Labor PM who in 2010 before he was removed didn’t have the stomach for working through a solution to that deadlock.
[Where do you put the blame for the Surplus boast, that never came to be?]
With the former PM, who should’ve been more nuanced in her rhetoric, but allowed herself to be spooked by a whiteanting campaign by her predecessor leaking to the press gallery.
Well, I’m glad Rudd’s back, for the sole reason that Abbott is now much less certain of winning.
I actually think Rudd’s a prick, but less of a prick than Abbott.
I liked Gillard. I thought she was great. The next female PM will have a tradition of unbreakable resilience to live up to.
As a friend said the other day, “Gillard’s future is behind her”.
Sean Tisme
“I am getting NBN on in a few weeks. I will be getting the 25Mb plan, can’t see much reason for going higher”
Oh thank god, we’ll be spared from you uploading your boring, predictable bullshit in HD.
confessions
What you don’t seem able to accept is that the blame is equally distributed over the period since 2007. These people are not part of a world music yoga club. They are all ultra-honed duplicitous bastards. To pretend otherwise for your own little intra-partison coterie is futile on the evidence.
@AW/2254
It will be available in 4K shortly!
Better escape from the Internet!
[is God a media mogul or a merchant banker?]
Everyone knows God is a doctor.
‘intra-partisan’
I blame Mod Lib for everything. It’s simpler and doesn’t take much effort.
BK@2176
I have long thought that a large part of the problem was that too much subjective judgement is involved in AFL.
e.g. In rugby, it is pretty clear when a player is tackled. In AFL it is far less clear when a player has been held.
[With the former PM]
WOW! I think this is the first time I have seen you admit Gillard made a mistake!
Well done. 🙂
jake
no next female PM will have it easy – wont have shadow of mediterranean men overhanging
[DisplayName
Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 10:06 pm | PERMALINK
I blame Mod Lib for everything. It’s simpler and doesn’t take much effort.]
…and you are likely to be right more often than not!
Gillard hasn’t made any mistake, they’re all yours, Mod.
bemused
In rugby union they could just about play a game without the ref.
So Newman is asking for $3.7 billion for Gonski/Better Schools:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/12/queensland-school-funding-plan-gonski
This is after Budget shortfall, cuts, price rises, failed electricity freeze etc.
ah well fond memories of socialist alliance year still linger – the ‘traitors’ within
Sarah Roberts
Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 4:36 pm | PERMALINK
my say
Never thought I would be saying this about another Laborite but you are almost on my scroll-by list.
You spent 24-48 hours screaming in pain, saying you would never vote Labor ever again, before you took the advice of your daughters.
And then changed tack.
That’s good. Labor’s at your very heart.
But I really wish you would give up this sanctimonious attitude to other Laborites who feel differently to you.
Especially considering your own reaction.
Apart from Boerwar, most other Laborites are still Labor. Please stop attacking people, or calling people who disagree with you, trolls.
If you look into your own behaviour, you espoused everything you despised in the aftermath of Julia Gillard’s deposition.
You were forever telling us that “others” were reading this blog, or other blogs, that were seemingly pro-Labor, and we mustn’t ever say anything detrimental.
Yet, you did it without being called a traitor. You were allowed to vent your feelings without being called a traitor. Stop doing it to others.
god is a theologian. if you can find one.
Anyway, I dare Mod to point out something I can’t blame Mod for :).
Jake
[As a friend said the other day, “Gillard’s future is behind her”.]
Exactly, but I suspect she has much to offer outside parliamentary politics, and will be given such soon if Labor wins.
jv:
I’m not pretending anything, nor do I have to pretend anything. I’ve used evidence and the past (objective) record to back my position.
as long as He is not an atheist
[DisplayName
Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 10:10 pm | PERMALINK
Anyway, I dare Mod to point out something I can’t blame Mod for ]
It is impossible for anyone but me not to fail not to miss not blaming Mod for nothing.
…..go work that one out! Hehe 🙂
[WOW! I think this is the first time I have seen you admit Gillard made a mistake!]
I have previously critised Gillard for many things. It’s just that you chose to view PB through your binary, black-is-white filter of how you saw the world.
mod lib
dear me. rudd will reform, not own alp. but you’ll need several packets of popcorn
[evidence ]
“Evidence” used in the Gillardista sense of “opinion”
[confessions
Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 10:11 pm | PERMALINK
WOW! I think this is the first time I have seen you admit Gillard made a mistake!
I have previously critised Gillard for many things]
Don’t want to fill us in, do you?
mod lib
god is not an atheist – this latter day post modern church of god deniers ought to be ashamed – 50000 years to come that conclusion –
maybe god is a politican. hmmmm
Sarah Roberts@2189
Well chalk up one that Player One has sucked in.
So where are the posts where I was attacking Gillard as a psychopath, sociopath or any other like term?
Yes I always thought she was a poor leader and and said so, citing her numerous blunders. I was actually amazed it took caucus so long to replace her.
confessions
In my game, all the relevant evidence must be taken into account, or I risk an appeal. You ignore a raft of relevant evidence before the pre-2010 knifing.
I rush to say, yet again, that it wasn’t ever about a leadership tussle, but it has always been a factional one
Personally, I am a lapsed agnostic.
I’m stalking you, it’s entirely possible.
Jesus was an item with Mary Magdeline but that was unacceptable in the eyes of the church because GOD is GAY 😯
That’s why they wanted Jesus to get with Peter 😈
ML. lapsed agnostic? — sounds like a familiar road to church of unwashed unthinking consuming atheism. actually i always like agnostic tag. whatever happened to that.
Labor now has to find a new candidate for Bennelong – another headache for the national executive.
Then again, as Bennelong is not winnable for the ALP this time, I guess the process is not as urgent as in other seats(Lalor, Rankin etc)
maybe god precedes gender a little … but yes the sexual things in NT little more nuanced that has been taught
@Confessions
I think where you and others make a mistake in criticising Rudd’s first term, is that you forget two important things. First, much of Rudd’s first term was dominated by the global financial crisis. This, correctly, became the Government’s first priority. No one really knew how deep it may be or how long the worst of it may last. But second, the 2007-10 Parliament was, in some ways, at least as difficult if not more so than the current Parliament. For the first 7 months of the Government’s term, the Senate was still controlled by the Liberals. After that it was controlled by a combination of the Greens, Nick Xenofon and Steve Fielding, who all come at politics from very different angles. With the Liberals opposing most of what the Government was trying to implement, it was extremely difficult to get legislation consistently through the Parliament.
Obviously this Parliament has been difficult in it’s own way. The difference being, that it was in everyone’s interest apart from the Coalition that the Parliament be made to work. This created good will that simply was not there between 2007 and 2010. So, I think the criticism of Rudd on this is largely unfair.
Speaking of classic cricket commentary …. Aggers and Johnston …. Boys will be boys …
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3k0qZDdfvZk&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D3k0qZDdfvZk
“Everyone knows God is a doctor.” – PhD in Marxist Studies?
[Don’t want to fill us in, do you?]
Same sex marraige. Never agreed with Gillard on that, and thought it was silly for her not to agree with it personally.
Matt … very helpful points
and?
[I rush to say, yet again, that it wasn’t ever about a leadership tussle, but it has always been a factional one]
Labor’s second term effort simply obliterates that argument.
I repeat: Labor removed the weak link and got stuff done.
The facts speak for themselves.
what?
The reality is the mining tax did what it was intended to do – tax “super” profits.
IT was not the “fault” of the government or the tax that mining companies did not enjoy the high earnings that would have resulted in more tax being paid under the MRRT.
One of the issues with the MMRT or a ‘super’ profits tax is that such a tax should have been introduced during the mining boom of the 1990’s when Howard was PM. The revenue from such a ‘super’ profits tax should have been set aside in a Sovereign fund similar to what Norway has…they now have billions and Aust missed out due to poor management during the Howard years
confessions
second term on bad foundations bit of illusion
Evan Parsons@2285
Pleaeaese…
[geoffrey
Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 10:09 pm | PERMALINK
ah well fond memories of socialist alliance year still linger – the ‘traitors’ within]
You are such a loser you can’t bear friends speaking to each other from the heart.
What a cowardly, pitiless jerk.
[I repeat: Labor removed the weak link and got stuff done.]
the weak link who is now your ALP Prime Minister????
confessions
The fact of the dumping of a carbon scheme in favour of the “Citizens’ Assembly”; or the fact of the lurch to the right on refugees?