BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

The second batch of polling since Kevin Rudd’s leadership takeover has been even more encouraging for Labor than the first, pushing them into the lead on both the BludgerTrack two-party vote and seat projection.

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan this week have pushed Labor over the line into majority territory on both the seat projection and two-party preferred in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The outstanding fact of the present seat projection is that Labor continues to hold the ground where Queensland’s large clump of marginal seats is located. New state breakdowns from Newspoll and Morgan have helped iron out a few quirky results from last week, namely a four-seat loss for Labor in Victoria and a two-seat gain in Western Australia. The state projections in particular should begin to stabilise now that a deeper pool of post-leadership change data is becoming available.

UPDATE: AMR Research has a national online poll of 1107 which turns the tables on the Liberals by showing Labor 51-49 ahead on the present arrangement, but 57-43 behind if Malcolm Turnbull were leader. The primary votes are 42% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 7% for the Greens. This is AMR Research’s second foray into national political polling, the first being a poll conducted in March was roughly in line with the polling trend of the time.

UPDATE 2: ReachTEL has published results of a union-commissioned poll of federal and state voting intention in Queensland, which at federal level has Labor on 40.8%, the Coalition on 44.2%, the Greens on 4.4%, Katter’s Australian Party on 3.9% and the Palmer United Party on 4.6%. Applying 2010 election preferences to this, with everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens condensed into “others”, returns a result of 52-48 to the Coalition, a swing of 3% which if uniform would net Labor six seats. The sample size for the poll was 1613. I’ve covered the state aspects of it as an update to my earlier Queensland Newspoll post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,439 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

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  1. [2399
    Sean Tisme

    Is it true there is a poll that shows the Coalition ahead 55% to Labors 45%?!?!]

    It is LNP nostalgia…like the Howard regime: a figment from the past.

  2. “@EllenBarryNYT: Big news is that #Snowden is applying for political asylum in Russia, despte Putin’s condition that he stop publishing. from @TanyaLokshina”

  3. Sean Tisme

    Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Is it true there is a poll that shows the Coalition ahead 55% to Labors 45%?!?!

    in your dreams

  4. [It is LNP nostalgia…like the Howard regime: a figment from the past.]

    Like Gillard then is to Labor.

    Actually Gillards not even a figment from the past, she’s been completely wiped from the ALP history books and Labors collective memory!

  5. @Sean/2407

    It’s a pitty that Abbott isn’t wiped from Coalition Party history books and Liberals collective memory!

  6. Ashbygate

    If the full bench backs the Rares judgement either in full or part, expect more pressure on Abbott’s leadership, given his strong defence of Brough fron the outset.

  7. The AUD has dropped nearly US 2 cents in overseas markets tonight.

    [Dollar Gains Versus Euro on U.S. Stimulus Outlook; Aussie Drops

    The dollar strengthened against the euro, paring its biggest weekly decline in five weeks, as investors bet the Federal Reserve will withdraw stimulus faster than the European Central Bank.

    The U.S. currency advanced versus most of its 16 major counterparts as data showed American producer prices increased in June more than forecast. The euro was little changed against the yen as a report showed industrial production in the region declined in May. Australia’s dollar weakened to less than 90 U.S. cents for the first time since September 2010. The pound fell after U.K. construction contracted in May.]

  8. Sean Tisme

    Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    It is LNP nostalgia…like the Howard regime: a figment from the past.

    Like Gillard then is to Labor.

    Actually Gillards not even a figment from the past, she’s been completely wiped from the ALP history books and Labors collective memory!
    Prove it, in fact I’d like to see you prove one coment you make, back it up with researched facts…just one.

    or perhaps even debate some of the comments you make.

    You take the lead from Abbott, and run away…gutless chickens the pair of you

    Perhaps you are Abbott…

  9. [2407
    Sean Tisme

    It is LNP nostalgia…like the Howard regime: a figment from the past.

    Like Gillard then is to Labor.

    Actually Gillards not even a figment from the past, she’s been completely wiped from the ALP history books and Labors collective memory!]

    Not at all. She will be allowed a few months peace and comfort. Then, having been martyred in the name of victory, will be made into a saint. We will all point to the miracle of another Labor Government and attribute some of the glory to Our Julia. She will become revered by all, even by those that cast abuse on her.

  10. BRIEFLEY would be possible to write

    another piece more in a nut shell after the long prose

    I would love to read but just don’t have the time

    to stay so long, I am not being sarcastic or rude
    I am serious

  11. 2382
    crikey whitey
    Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 11:09 pm | Permalink


    Would you mind shutting up for one single moment.

    You may think your life is tough.

    And it may be.

    You don’t even start in my category.

  12. I suspect former PM JG will have no shortage of job offers from the likes of the UN and other international bodies. The world noticed that speech for what it was. A line in the sand against misogyny.

  13. Gary

    Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    Thanks AA. In other words It’s BS.

    yep, but don’t tell Sean Tsime …let him have a good nights sleep

  14. my say…you want the executive summary? The original document submitted to the Tribunal took two days to write and edit and covered a lot of ground.

    I wonder how I can condense it?

    K’s story is a triumph of both the human spirit and the law. While it contrasts with the sordid politics of refugees, the outcome shows this country is still a living symbol of hope-fulfilled.

    K’s circumstances – as an innocent but disgraced and ostracised Tamil woman in Malaysia – were cruelly sad, her afflictions those of prejudice and poverty. And they were also intensely precarious right up until the moment a Tribunal decided – after a public hearing in Perth – that she should be “protected”.

    The facts also illustrate two things: while bigotry still persists, the system here is not indifferent to it. For this, we should thank the High Court, which has ensured that great power can be availed by the meekest among us. In a way, the law has redeemed the fortitude and the perseverance of the humblest mother, here and now, in the 21st century.

  15. cw
    I am not comparing life stories. I don’t know where you got that from. My life has nothing to do with it. Putting up with three years of Gillard kicking on PB and then being told to leave poor little ruddy alone after three weeks is a different matter.

  16. My Say,
    I can write both highbrow and lowbrow depending on the audience. Some people need a literary 4×2 between the eyes before they get the understanding.

  17. Hello there friends, Tony Abbott has done it again. He got Rudd sacked just prior to the 2010 election and now Gillard sacked just prior to this 2013 election. ALP has brought back what may well be the biggest traitor in Oz political history now, given he sabotaged the 2010 election campaign with deadly leaks and since then has been plotting to knife a woman who was our first female pm in the back to get the top job. She was his PM too. KR is the worst traitor ever seen in this country and against his own party and pm. ALP is an absolute joke. Even with an unprecedented massive honeymoon that anyone could have gotten realistically, ALP will be convincingly beaten. ALP has enthroned the one man in this world they hate the most. How desperate is that? A joke desperate. That much. The Rudd experiment is already showing cracks, soon to be the grand canyon, where the ALP will be lost forever within, perhaps. Tony Abbott is quite extraordinary and his demolition of the ALP yet again makes him the most successful opposition leader this country has ever seen in politics. True talent. He has not only got labor to sack a second pm but bring back the one man they hate most in the process. He has caused half or so of ALP’s cabinet to resign / retire. ALP policy is a complete shambolic mess. The ALP and NSW branch is in absolute tatters needing radical reconstructive surgery. KR is putting on a show and some are impressed hey! The ALP is nearly dead and on life support. The only thing keeping the ALP alive is that Tony Abbott and the coalition are yet to really send out their message loud and clear. It includes ridiculous debt and a deficit that would make Greece blush if we are honest. Complete dysfunction and chaos in a party seen in policy stuff ups like school halls, pink batts, mining tax, carbon tax and the list is endless. The KR circus is in town and dazzling many with bright lights. But now, soon, the lights will be put out and then KR and the ALP will be shown to be all hollow air and noise and nothing but complete chaos and dysfunction, and then voters incl last min and swing voters will romp home for the coalition. ALP has no record worth noting and no real plan for the future. Just smoke and mirrors. Tony Abbott has KR’s number I think you will find. As he did last time when he got KR sacked. ALP is a union party and hence full of self interest and activists and lobbyists. Not capable of proper govt. None have any real exp running a business, and running a country is far harder than running 1,000’s of diff businesses all at once incl large multinationals, and there is a lot more to manage also. LNP have the answers and a great team this time around. They have great heads and not bad hearts either. ALP try to be all heart, and this is admirable. But you need a good head with tons of common sense too. You need the very best and brightest to run a country like this. A diverse mix of talent if you are to be successful. And Tony Abbott has the team and what it takes. Don’t believe polls as we have not seen the replies and allowed Tony Abbott myth buster to blow away the mirage. I pick a poll of high 50%’s on election day to the coalition. You would be game to think otherwise too. A formidable man Tony Abbott, and a team to be reckoned with. Watch out for Tony Abbott, as he is about to strike again. ALP is extremely weak with the right strategy from LNP, and will wipe the floor with them. This is my first post here. I imagine many will dislike it. I just tell the truth as I see it dear friends. ALP need time in the sin bin, at least. ALP has lost all credibility in reality, also lost — dignity, integrity, honour, honestly, trustworthiness, decency, and they don’t give a fair go or play by the rules. They need a big time out. Thx for your time and bye for now. Viva la LNP !!!

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