BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

The second batch of polling since Kevin Rudd’s leadership takeover has been even more encouraging for Labor than the first, pushing them into the lead on both the BludgerTrack two-party vote and seat projection.

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan this week have pushed Labor over the line into majority territory on both the seat projection and two-party preferred in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The outstanding fact of the present seat projection is that Labor continues to hold the ground where Queensland’s large clump of marginal seats is located. New state breakdowns from Newspoll and Morgan have helped iron out a few quirky results from last week, namely a four-seat loss for Labor in Victoria and a two-seat gain in Western Australia. The state projections in particular should begin to stabilise now that a deeper pool of post-leadership change data is becoming available.

UPDATE: AMR Research has a national online poll of 1107 which turns the tables on the Liberals by showing Labor 51-49 ahead on the present arrangement, but 57-43 behind if Malcolm Turnbull were leader. The primary votes are 42% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 7% for the Greens. This is AMR Research’s second foray into national political polling, the first being a poll conducted in March was roughly in line with the polling trend of the time.

UPDATE 2: ReachTEL has published results of a union-commissioned poll of federal and state voting intention in Queensland, which at federal level has Labor on 40.8%, the Coalition on 44.2%, the Greens on 4.4%, Katter’s Australian Party on 3.9% and the Palmer United Party on 4.6%. Applying 2010 election preferences to this, with everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens condensed into “others”, returns a result of 52-48 to the Coalition, a swing of 3% which if uniform would net Labor six seats. The sample size for the poll was 1613. I’ve covered the state aspects of it as an update to my earlier Queensland Newspoll post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,439 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

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  1. BK@2265

    bemused
    In rugby union they could just about play a game without the ref.

    Yes, a game played by gentlemen. πŸ˜†

    Oh, the ladies also play too. πŸ˜‰

  2. Rudd maybe merde beneath my shoe, but he is just one pile of merde, Abbott is an anus which produces many piles of merde, therefore I will vote for a pile rather than a pile-maker.

    Which means that our poltical scene is in the sewer.

  3. The betting seems to have consolidated:

    Average Best Odds Available:

    LNP $1.40

    ALP $3.10

    Don’t get too confident Bludgers, we are still behind but we have a contest 😎

  4. Bilbo
    Even two bob watches give the correct time.

    To whoever it was going on about the knifing of ST Kevin. Julia was too soft, she made him FM. She should have knifed him, knifed him again, cut off his goolies, stuffed them down his sexist throat and thrown him to the crocodiles, and then had him thrown out of the party.

    You can’t be nice to people like that, every kindness just brings its own punishment,

  5. jv

    Who does equality hurt?

    Put yourself in others shoes?

    Discrimination?

    No, that’s NOT was Rudd was saying as I have expressed in my post!

    Quit while your ahead or I will stick to my original views πŸ˜›

  6. @UN: She’s here! Ban Ki-moon just welcomed Malala to the United Nations. Friday is #MalalaDay & #UNYouthTakeover. http://t.co/5REAdJRdPJ

    24 broadcasting from 11:30for those wanting to see a real warrior for woman’s rights

  7. Hang on a second….I think I have GOT IT!

    Puff likes Gillard and Puff doesn’t like Rudd.

    Did I do good? πŸ™‚

  8. Life is a series of mistakes, it’s not a question of being right, it’s a question of not being too wrong too often ;).

  9. Rossmore “PMD 2354 Think policy, not personality and your dilemma will be easier to manage.”

    Well that post was a resounding success, wasnt it?

  10. Rossmore, if at first you don’t succeed, try and try again?

    Wait, is that the advice some others are following? Hmmm.

  11. Puffy

    Rudd’s goolies were safe on the back bench 😯

    Unfortunately, had Julia not listened to the Greens, as she was warned on numerous occasions here at PB that they’re bad news, she more than likely would have still been in the job.

    No such problems with Rudd, or Bowen for that matter, they know, they don’t need to be told πŸ˜€

  12. confessions@2293


    I repeat: Labor removed the weak link and got stuff done.

    The facts speak for themselves.

    Indeed they do. Just look at how Labor’s electoral fortunes have turned around since the weakest link was removed last month. πŸ‘Ώ

  13. Centre

    as she was warned on numerous occasions here at PB

    Well obviously the first mistake for any politican to make is not to read PB …

  14. Puff.

    Would you mind shutting up for one single moment.

    You may think your life is tough.

    And it may be.

    You don’t even start in my category.

  15. Centre

    No, it has always been the direct point of the simple removal of discrimination with no resulting harm to anyone from my quarter. The offending words have only been in the Marriage Act since the Howard Government anyway. It isn’t as if it is written on stone tablets, as Gillard and Emerson tried to imply.

  16. Well, seeing as I have only been here for a few minutes, and have obviously upset the Tea and Cucumber Sandwiches set, I will leave all you precious petals to your Gillard kicking.

  17. ML:

    [What difference does it make whether it is right of centre or left of centre or centre?]

    {sigh} Left-of-centre people will mostly give the ALP their effective preference. VoA is important to right-of-centre folk. Right-of-centre folk get male talk commentators.

    She is a woman, and she led the radio ratings, so the argument that women do not have the voice of authority is ludicrous.

    [If you are talking about the ultra right, aren’t they monarchists? Who is the Monarch again?]

    The Queen

    a) doesn’t stand for election
    b) hardly speaks in public
    c) doesn’t make claims about politics so needs no VoA

    FTR, the ultra right isn’t composed entirely of monarchists, though that’s moot anyway.

  18. Is this tweet authentic?

    Kimberley Kitching ‏@kimbakit 5h
    After carefully considering my friend Kevin Rudd’s and the former PM’s wishes, I’ve decided to support educator Joanne Ryan in Lalor.

    It’s a bit odd, because Kitching was still running this afternoon.

  19. it always gives me the pip when people have to use
    the anatomy of a male in descriptions,
    its really quite un clasey

  20. Puff, j-v, confessions, guytaur…

    It must be a good thing for us to be brought to the point of quite rare agreement. K is one very brave woman – indomitable.

    πŸ™‚

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