BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

The second batch of polling since Kevin Rudd’s leadership takeover has been even more encouraging for Labor than the first, pushing them into the lead on both the BludgerTrack two-party vote and seat projection.

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan this week have pushed Labor over the line into majority territory on both the seat projection and two-party preferred in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The outstanding fact of the present seat projection is that Labor continues to hold the ground where Queensland’s large clump of marginal seats is located. New state breakdowns from Newspoll and Morgan have helped iron out a few quirky results from last week, namely a four-seat loss for Labor in Victoria and a two-seat gain in Western Australia. The state projections in particular should begin to stabilise now that a deeper pool of post-leadership change data is becoming available.

UPDATE: AMR Research has a national online poll of 1107 which turns the tables on the Liberals by showing Labor 51-49 ahead on the present arrangement, but 57-43 behind if Malcolm Turnbull were leader. The primary votes are 42% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 7% for the Greens. This is AMR Research’s second foray into national political polling, the first being a poll conducted in March was roughly in line with the polling trend of the time.

UPDATE 2: ReachTEL has published results of a union-commissioned poll of federal and state voting intention in Queensland, which at federal level has Labor on 40.8%, the Coalition on 44.2%, the Greens on 4.4%, Katter’s Australian Party on 3.9% and the Palmer United Party on 4.6%. Applying 2010 election preferences to this, with everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens condensed into “others”, returns a result of 52-48 to the Coalition, a swing of 3% which if uniform would net Labor six seats. The sample size for the poll was 1613. I’ve covered the state aspects of it as an update to my earlier Queensland Newspoll post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,439 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

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  1. [Sean Tisme
    Posted Thursday, July 11, 2013 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    You were all getting worked up about Abbott telling some rude journalist from the leftie rag Guardian to calm down, but Rudd pats a disabled woman on the head like she is his pet poodle and suddenly all is well

    The first is about a reporter trying to find out about $9000 being stolen from the commonwealth. The second requires some weird interpretation of events.

  2. SO much for Rudd’s claptrap about giving more power to the members. He’s parachuting his own candidate (who is a non-local) into Lalor.

  3. I remember thinking when Keating went from being treasurer to the back bench and then to PM replacing Bob Hawke that things in politics move quickly.
    I wasn’t particularly politically engaged but understood why Keating took over. Bob had run out of steam.
    When Rudd was replaced I was more politically engaged but wasn’t privy to the reasons why. From an external perspective he was toppled while he still had a contribution to give, there was a degree of dysfunction but no more than Howard had displayed at times.
    I think that is why, two weeks after regaining the PMship the numbers have swung so far so quickly. The public had the perception (true or false) that Rudd wasn’t given a fair go and ironically the Libs have spent three years telling us that Kevin was shafted. It very much is a case of beware of what you wish for because the electorates mood seems to be “thank God, we don’t need to vote for Abbott anymore”. I really believe the Australian sense of a fair go had been compromised by Julia replacing Kevin and NOTHING she could have done would have corrected it given the Libs repeated reminders of poor Kevin.

  4. Smaug 4
    I think your comment re what the average Australian thinks is correct, rightly or wrongly. But really believe that the average punter was influenced by the MSM and the well timed leaks starting with Laurie Oakes at the NPC speech in 2010

  5. Smaug 4
    I think your comment re what the average Australian thinks is correct, rightly or wrongly. But really believe that the average punter was influenced by the MSM and the well timed leaks starting with Laurie Oakes at the NPC speech in 2010

  6. FTR, on the head pat …

    As briefly points out, in many places, physical contact with the head/face is considered insulting without a clear invitation. In schools here in Australia, we have a ‘hands off’ policy with the students too save in cases where there is a pressing hazard to a child.

    When one is familar with another person and on good terms, physical contact may underline that, but even then, the head and face are no go areas except in cases of very close friendship. Outside of that, it is considered at best inappopriate and usually infringing personal space.

    In more than a decade in my current workplace, I’ve never seen a staff member make contact with anything above the shoulders of another staff member.

    To try this with an unfamiliar person, and particularly a disabled person, strikes me as socially inept at best, and more probably, the (misplaced) sense by PMKR that his office comes with a social licence that normal folk don’t have. Perversely, the opposite may well be the case at the moment.

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Mark Kenny thinks the unions will be a bit windy of Rudd if he wins. He also reckons Abbott looks rattled.
    Coventry would have been closer!
    Richard Torbay. What a treasure!
    I’m sorry, but this stuff makes me so angry I could throw up!
    Could this be the “Convoy of Consequence” for Abbott and friends?
    Apple has been price gouging for ages.
    Piece by piece Victoria and WA are being cornered.
    Let’s hope the police have a retributive streak.
    Bruce Petty is unimpressed with the depth of political reporting.

    David Rowe signals that Labor has taken the new ball in the Political Ashes.
    Ron Tandberg has really got it in for Abbott lately.

  8. Crazy USA News:

    Indiana steps up persecution of Same Sex Marriage applicants

    [ Like this article?Join our email list:Stay up to date with the latest headlines via email.
    On July 1 of next year, same-sex couples applying for a marriage license in Indiana will have committed a felony punishable by 18 months in prison an a $10,000 fine. The new crime stems from the revival of a1997 law forbidding false information on a marriage license as a Class D felony. It will also make it a Class B misdemeanor — punishable by up to 180 days in a jail and a maximum fine of $1,000 — for clergy, judges, and others to perform a same-sex marriage.

    Because Indiana marriage license forms have a space for “male applicant” and “female applicant”, any same-sex couple filling out the form would automatically violate the law.]

  9. [SO much for Rudd’s claptrap about giving more power to the members. He’s parachuting his own candidate (who is a non-local) into Lalor.

    When Rudd was replaced I was more politically engaged but wasn’t privy to the reasons why.]

    For me replacing rudd showed that the essential strenght of the party that it was stronger than one person and was not all about one person.

    The mps are elected by the public, the mps determine who is pm, approve policy and legislation. rudd lost the support of the mps and was replaced. Where this went off the rail is when he was then rewarded for his continual three campaign of misogynist and undermining of labor policies and directions.

    To decry union influence in the labor party is narrow minded as it is an expression of greater participation and democracy than many other parties.

    rudd speaks of greater community involvement in the party which already exists with the unions.

    The union reps are elected by their members to put their views, these union reps then put those forward to the party. With unions representing around 20% of the workforce what greater community participation can you get.

    If people are unhappy about the union influence then join a union and vote for the rep you want of stand as a delegate same as now with mps.

    The inherent democracy and wider participation of the community via the unions in labor seems to have been portrayed as a negative as per the whole msm campaign as union boo!

  10. Question from the floor without notice.

    What time is PMKR appearing at the NPC for the debate. I saw somewhere it was 11.30am to 1.30pm.

    Then on ABC24 this morning they said watch from 12.30pm

    Thanks in advance

  11. [FTR, on the head pat …

    strikes me as socially inept at best, and more probably, the (misplaced) sense by PMKR that his office comes with a social licence that normal folk don’t have.]

    It was not a pat on the head fran, it was a blessing.

    rudd and his supporters were most likely stunned when the ungrateful fuck did not jump out of her wheel chair crying praise rudd I am cured.

  12. say
    Posted Thursday, July 11, 2013 at 7:45 am | Permalink
    what a lot of rot, and Julia had done that the same people would of ignored it, {re patting head}
    I am not sure she would of but that’s not the point.
    we are all different

    I also noticed at another blog the news said blalbla
    that mr rudd was not happy about the captains pick
    read in the newspaper
    low behold, KR said he was happy with it, so an opinion was given blah
    the same people took with a grain of salt what the papers
    regarding what JG said
    and reacted in situation, and what right to do so at the time
    can we stick to that now sigh

    put in perspective, no one thought it was strange to kiss a fish

  13. Castle

    I think that your story of union involvement is lala land.

    First just what sort of a worker (with kids) on say 1000 per week and 750 after tax can AFFORD to donate a week’s wages to the union.
    After absolute essentials are removed from the budget – say 280 for rent and utilities and 70 for transport (public and or car), 150 for food, you are asking the worker to hand over something close to 2 weeks of disposable income – and I have not included child care.

    Unions are about as representative of workers as the ALP is of youth and those with kids – bugger all.

    If union membership was say $100 per year then you might make a case for them being genuinely reflective of workers – but at $500-$600 per year I laugh my socks off.

  14. Hey Kevin

    Much as I love you – and I do think you are great, GO slower on the touchy feely stuff.

    If KR staff read this please take note. Just a bit of a sense of a touch too much.

    By the by a friend pointed out the other day that JG was a “knee squeezer,” a tried and true women’s trick to get men to do as you ask with their tongues hanging out. Ros Kelly was a dab hand at it.

    Men can backslap other men for a similar effect and maybe squeeze a woman’s hand but these days their scope is more constrained.

  15. Good (bleary-eyed) morning to you, Dawn Patrol.

    Bug*ar Old Age! After most of a lifetime’s listening/ watching Ashes Tests in the Land of the Poms, I couldn’t last past Lunch Break. I doubt, at my age, I can train myself to be what (according to my annoyed Mum) I wasn’t even as a toddler – a day-time sleeper. Damn & blast. I LUV the Ashes!

    I see Fairfax seems to have exited the bed on the wrong side this morning.

    China warns of grim trade outlook after surprise 3% fall in exports
    Figures defy expectations and likely to raise fresh concerns about extent of slowdown in economy and global demand

    Little wonder consumer confidence – at least where “bricks & mortar” selling is concerned – is dropping; though we don’t know (?don’t want to know) about online shopping. That will also, I assume, fall somewhat as A$ drops. But since online OS+postage was still way cheaper even when A$ was in the pits – as are Oz discount “supermarkets” like Kogan, Catch of the Day, Fishpond – I doubt Aussie buyers will drift back to “bricks & mortar”.

  16. I want to listen on the Net to PMKR at the press club starting 11.30. I can’t see a live broadcast link on the press club site. Does ABC News Radio broadcast the event?

  17. Castle posts some waffle about ‘community involvement’ and ‘unions’ and somehow misses the point that Rudd is parachuting a non-local candidate over the will of local members.

    It appears nothing Rudd does is wrong even if it’s the opposite of what he advocates.

  18. Rudd likes to physically engage with those he meets on the campaign trail.
    He embraces people kisses kids puts his arm around shoulders. Perhaps
    with hindsight he should not have touched this woman’s head but I can’t
    help feeling that the confected level of outrage at what is clearly an attempt
    to connect with this person just underscores the desperate wish in some
    quarters to tear Rudd down over anything. Anybody who believes Rudd has
    anything but respect for people such as this woman is trying far too hard to
    find fault. And for fair minded Australians who don’t live their lives on
    political correctness red alert this will only enhance Rudd’s popularity.

  19. The conventional wisdom says that the polls show a ‘sugar hit’ for Rudd, but I am not yet convinced that there will be a default drift of support back to the Coalition. The trend could just as easily continue to consolidate on the Labor side, especially as Abbott is so one-dimensional. The Coalition’s polling support was always a mile wide, but an inch deep.

    I don’t think that Abbott and the Coalition have any idea as yet how to counter Rudd except to double down on their slogans ‘Boats!!! Debt!!!Labor faceless men!!!Carbon Tax!!!’ and despite their claims to the contrary, they show no signs of activating such a Plan B. Their arrogance and hubris has left them with no way to reverse their current faltering, dare I say it, floundering campaign.

    PM Rudd can continue to set the pace, look Prime Ministerial, cruise around to various photo op locations (including off to the G20 Meeting in Russia to rub shoulders with Obama, Putin, et al) play ‘cat and mouse’ on the election date, and Abbott continues to writhe and squirm like the simian vermin that he is, unable to lay a glove on Rudd as he stumbles around like ‘The Mummy’ …. just like Foreman did against Ali in ‘the Rumble in the Jungle’ in 1975 – it’s ‘rope a dope’ all over again!

    Saturday September 21st has firmed as the election date … it’s also Rudd’s 56th Birthday.


    Why The Pink Batts Scheme Failed

    By Ian McAuley


    pink batts

    ian mcauley


    public service


    Partisan hacks who blame Kevin Rudd for the pink batts deaths have got it wrong. The deregulators who eroded the insulation industry’s safeguards deserve scrutiny, writes Ian McAuley

    The Queensland Coroner has strongly criticised the parties involved in the Homeowner Insulation Scheme – hardly a surprise. The contractors whose negligence led to deaths, the State Government which failed to regulate the industry and the Commonwealth which funded the scheme all bear responsibility for the deaths, fires and lesser shortcomings.
    – See more at:

  21. [misses the point that Rudd is parachuting a non-local candidate over the will of local members.]

    No worries bobalot saw your apologies, was the point i was making that involvement of the unions is a wider community involvement in itself and for all rudds talk he goes and does as you say.

  22. Tom Hawkins
    Posted Thursday, July 11, 2013 at 8:08 am | Permalink
    I want to listen on the Net to PMKR

    I will look up new radio web site

  23. DTR, he’s parachuting his own candidate into Lalor and since she hasn’t been a member for a year, he’s getting that prerequisite waived. I’m pretty sure it’s on the frontpage of crikey atm (on mobile atm, bit awkward for me to check)

  24. Touchgate

    Merely the peoples princess administering the royal touch, the traditional medication for scrofula but perhaps Rudd can cure all disabilities

  25. In the past News Radio has broadcast the NPC, and past where News 24 usually cuts out mid-sentence when it goes overtime. I am not sure of times, though. It’s usually one hour from 12.30, but if it starts at 11.30 is it two hours or is Rudd due somewhere else at the usual time? Two hours seems like too long to me.

  26. [I want to listen on the Net to PMKR at the press club starting 11.30. I can’t see a live broadcast link on the press club site]

    Just checked ABC programme guide. NPC @ 12.30 AEST on ABC 1 & 24, which usually (?always) streams in real time. Should get it on your IT devise.

    Check Radio National programme guide.

  27. In the UK, the big political news is Milliband giving a speech saying Labour needs to move away from the unions to remain relevant.

    There is some scepticism how much that will actually happen.

  28. morning all

    The touchy feely thing by Rudd can be seen as disrespectul and condescending. He should be more mindful about doing this sort of thing. I dont believe that was his intention. People tend to do these things unconsciously. It is done as a way to connect to those who perhaps cannot engage in expression at a ceberal level

  29. [It’s Gough Whitlam’s birthday. He’s 97 – born 11 July 1916.]

    Happy birthday, Gough! Though you’re not one to hold grudges, I sure hope you’re enjoying the Brits’ version of I’m going to do you slowly, Rupert!

  30. On touchy feely thing. As young Ashton moved to his bowling position a team member did the hair thing and touched his bum.

    So maybe we should be glad PMKR did not generate worse headlines

  31. Castle

    The problem with your lala land scenario about the MPs being elected by the public is that that is about as realistic as the tooth fairy.

    In reality what happens is that the left and right factions get together and decide which seats belong to which. Then each faction pulls out of its bottom drawer some acceptable union hack candidate- an ex organiser or official or a staffer for a current union hack pollie. Usually they will never have actually WORKED in the industry, except perhaps as barmen or shop assistants during university vacations. They will never have actually had to live on the wage of their union members, always pulling in graduate or organiser salaries.

    Then when the left or right has chosen thir candidate all others are “persuaded” to withdraw. Now their might be (and often is) a great local person possibly loosley aligned to a faction, but these people are “persuaded” not to stand. The local community activist or popular teacher, branch member who is an author, or well known academic etc are told that there is no point standing.

    So then there is a “rank and file” ballot which means that members get to choose between one pretty boy/girl lefty chosen by United Voice or a union heavy weight chosen by AWU, SDA or AMWU. Usually both candidates are below average and about as representative of the actual ALP members as an orange-man is of catholic Ireland.

    In unwinnable or unlikely seats they will allow rank and file ballots, but other wise it is one huge joke.

    The public has next to no role – come election time if they are in a safe seat they get the ALP factional hack forced upon them.

  32. tom I have look at new radio, ive tweeted them
    its a disgrace they still have listed their preferred propgrame from the usa all things considered in that time area
    so it time to really start tweeting the abc radio national

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