BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

The second batch of polling since Kevin Rudd’s leadership takeover has been even more encouraging for Labor than the first, pushing them into the lead on both the BludgerTrack two-party vote and seat projection.

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan this week have pushed Labor over the line into majority territory on both the seat projection and two-party preferred in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The outstanding fact of the present seat projection is that Labor continues to hold the ground where Queensland’s large clump of marginal seats is located. New state breakdowns from Newspoll and Morgan have helped iron out a few quirky results from last week, namely a four-seat loss for Labor in Victoria and a two-seat gain in Western Australia. The state projections in particular should begin to stabilise now that a deeper pool of post-leadership change data is becoming available.

UPDATE: AMR Research has a national online poll of 1107 which turns the tables on the Liberals by showing Labor 51-49 ahead on the present arrangement, but 57-43 behind if Malcolm Turnbull were leader. The primary votes are 42% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 7% for the Greens. This is AMR Research’s second foray into national political polling, the first being a poll conducted in March was roughly in line with the polling trend of the time.

UPDATE 2: ReachTEL has published results of a union-commissioned poll of federal and state voting intention in Queensland, which at federal level has Labor on 40.8%, the Coalition on 44.2%, the Greens on 4.4%, Katter’s Australian Party on 3.9% and the Palmer United Party on 4.6%. Applying 2010 election preferences to this, with everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens condensed into “others”, returns a result of 52-48 to the Coalition, a swing of 3% which if uniform would net Labor six seats. The sample size for the poll was 1613. I’ve covered the state aspects of it as an update to my earlier Queensland Newspoll post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,439 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 49
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  3. OzPol Tragic
    A couple of days ago you mentioned the “Night Witches” . The most decorated “witch” has just died . An amazing tale.

    Nadezhda Popova

    The 588th was not well equipped. …. the women flew 1920s-vintage Polikarpov PO-2 two-seater biplanes, which consisted of fabric strung over a plywood frame, and lacked all but the most rudimentary instruments.

    There was no radio; navigation was done with a stopwatch and a map. The planes carried no guns, no parachutes and had only enough weight allowance to take two bombs, forcing the pilots to make multiple sorties (Nadezhda Popova once flew 18 in a single night),

    The pilots’ tactic was to fly to within a certain distance of the target, and cut their engines. They would then glide in silently, release their bombs, then restart their engines and fly home. The Germans called them the “Nachthexen” (the Night Witches) due to the whooshing sound they made — “like a witch’s broomstick in the night’’ — as they flew past.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/10171897/Nadezhda-Popova.html

  4. Good, OPT. I thought we were in for a 60-90 minute Rudd speech. I haven’t forgotten what a 7-minute answer of his in question time was like.

  7. “@SabraLane: Jon Faine i/v with Lisa Clutterham on why she wants to stand in Lalor: you’ve not live in Melb? No I haven’t. You’ve not studied in Melb? No”

    “@SabraLane: Faine: Any connection with Lalor? No. Have you been to the electorate? I have … How long have you been a member of Labor? Mid June”

  8. confessions

    Apparently Mark Textor is none to happy with Fairfax publishing the article on Ashbygate, as evidenced by some of his tweets being retweeted around the place

  9. OK Bobalot

    Yes I did recall seeing that there were now four candidates in Lalor

    Kitching supported by Shorten – a very dangerous choice given the whole HSU stuff, a school principal supported by Gillard who had let her membership lapse (she seems nice enough but very, very, very average), a daughter of Ralph Willis (here we go again dynastic ambitions) and the very good looking diplomat supported by Richard Marles, but also not a current member.

    Bobalot – I admit to being highly conflicted. It seems fairly obvious that in terms of quality the Marles candidate is miles in front of the others – intelligent, highly trained and very good looking to boot.

    BUT I also strongly support local candidates aka the school principal – pity she let her membership lapse or there would probably NOT be an issue.

    If of course the ALP had been relevant to the younger people, the diplomat would of course have already been a member.

    Noted in Annabel Crabb’s last giggly fest that Emmerson was recruited in a branch stack by Conroy into Mt Ainslie Branch. Clearly we need more branch stacking :).

    Being more serious – in the days when ALP membership was issue driven, lots of young [public servants and diplomats would be members.

    It was NOT unusual in Canberra for local branches to have 100 or more attending often just for membership renewal. And NO they were not always stack driven

  10. I’m not a fan of Kevin Rudd. This antipathy has very little to do with politics and everything to do with good government.

    My view was formed during Rudd’s previous tenure as Prime Minister when I was an industry lobbyist. I witnessed endless briefs being prepared by harried departmental officials who were required to be on-call 24/7 in order to be able to respond to the whims of a micro-manager Prime Minister who nevertheless seemed incapable of making decisions. Meanwhile, ministers shrugged in meetings saying they couldn’t make decisions without Kevin’s imprimatur, which was rarely forthcoming.

    I was told by government staffers of an overflowing in-tray on the Prime Minister’s desk where the briefs languished as the PM chased down the latest news cycle or instructed ministers to tell their departments to prepare briefs on his latest thought bubble. I read about the senior government officials who were left gathering dust like the briefs, literally waiting hours outside the Prime Minister’s office for an audience with the man.

    An account from someone who watched up close how the wheels fell off Labor’s first term in office.
    http://dragonistasblog.com/2013/07/09/kevin-fool-me-once-shame-on-you-fool-me-twice-shame-on-me-2/

  12. castle:

    It was not a pat on the head fran, it was a blessing.

    So PMKR is the messiah … or at least someone like the Pope?

    Had the person arisen and done some nifty hip hop and breakdancing, this would doubtless have helped in the polls and maybe been his first miracle on the way to beatification, but sadly for the annointed one, the footage didn’t show this.

  13. Confessions

    I too read Dragonista’s nonsense.

    She was an INDUSTRY LOBBYIST NOTE:
    that is code for LNP activist hack get it.

    Industry lobbyist is the the LNP what union President is the the ALP.

    Are you for real or SO politically naive that you spout the words of an LNP plant to denigrate an ALP PM.

  14. victoria:

    Ashbygate was an investigative journalist’s dream story, surely? You can only think that the reason the media stayed away from it was because of pressure put onto editors and the like by Team Abbott.

  17. Abbott again shows his cowardly act by not debating rudd today, the media should be all over abbott and his claim if the labor government was that bad, why are you scared to state your case

  18. confessions
    does it do the country any good at this time to
    rake over old coals

    realy don’t think so

    can we just move on

    please
    LETS CONCENTRATE ON WINNING THIS ELECTION

  19. Those dismissing or excusing Rudd’s head-patting incident have NFI. Let me explain why it is a big deal and a huge error by Rudd. It goes way beyond a careless bit of touching by a touchy-feely person, it takes Rudd right into the heart of patronising bastard territory. I have a close family member who often experiences head-pats from complete strangers. It makes him furious, as it makes others who experience the same thoughtless action furious. Here’s why.

    Imagine you use a wheelchair, or are a person of very short stature. You are waiting in the queue at the supermarket, perhaps, or out for a drink with a few friends on a Friday night, just doing the things everyone does. Then a complete stranger walks up and pats you on the head. Maybe they do it while they are talking to someone next to you. Just because you are not at their eye level they assume they have the right to do this, treating you like a child or a dog, even. Actually, it’s worse than that, because we all know that you do not touch random children you see in a public place and we all know it’s a bad idea to pat a strange dog on the head. So why would you do it to another adult? Because you are an ignorant twit who thinks people with disabilities are ‘cute’ or there for you to patronise. It makes people with disabilities feel that they are in some way lesser beings, because no-one pats or touches supposedly ‘normal’ people they have never met before.

    The cuddle for the cameras Rudd gave the woman in question was borderline, the head-pat was appalling. Rudd should have been briefed on appropriate behaviour. Surely Therese would have told him long ago about how to behave when one meets someone with a disability. After all, she’s had plenty of experience. I hope she gave him the rounds of the kitchen when she saw the video.

  20. confessions

    Rudd regaining the leaderahip would have been incumbent on him not conducting himself as he had in the past.

  21. DTT:

    If you think that Drag0nista is an LNP hack then you haven’t read her posts over the years. Like Andrew Elder she is more a disaffected or ex Liberal.

    You need to take off your rose coloured glasses and look objectively at what most other followers of politics can see.

  23. can we pls just leave that over at the other place

    please

    WE NEED TO WIN AN ELECTION

    turning the blogs in to exactly how it was when JG took
    ove,r shoe on other foot

    has no point at all .serves no purpose,
    at this point of time
    there are much more important issues’
    to be won
    AN ELECTION
    .why are not you here for other comments

  25. What the pro coalition has always been scared of is, if people start to listen to Abbott

    John Hewson losing the unlosable election , will be undone by a big way

    Abbott will not only lose the election , but labor will win with a good majority, maybe go close in controlling the senate ?

    thanks to abbott

  28. Confessions

    She is an industry lobbyist.

    Enough said. That means she is to the right of centre and NOT an ALP supporter.

  29. victoria:

    I suppose it really comes down to whether a micro-manager really can learn to be more collegiate and to delegate.

    I guess we’ll find out if Labor are re-elected.

  31. CONNIE WITH RESPECT THAT

    would have to be one of the strangest

    comparisons I have ever seen heard of in my life

    I don’t recall having ever seen any one do that
    except the future father

    shakes head

    what trivia.

    when u get to 65 you may start to realise

    how trivial that all sounds

    over it

  33. I think Gough is resident at Lulworth House in Elizabeth Bay, Sydney if someone wants to send him a card.

    He is there with some famous Australians – Neville Wran, Dame Leonie Kramer and Sir Laurence Street

  34. i see news ltd/abbott coalition is spreading propaganda against rudd’s wife

    Honestly how can people still remain gullible to news ltd/abbott coalition

  36. newsltd/abbott coalition has shown why it should never be elected it has no idea on how to change

    It has nothing but personal propaganda, since Gillard become the pm

  38. FB
    “When one is familar with another person and on good terms, physical contact may underline that, but even then, the head and face are no go areas except in cases of very close friendship. Outside of that, it is considered at best inappopriate and usually infringing personal space.”

    comm studies 101. your erudition is boundless.

  40. Confessions

    Do not be silly

    Pay attention to ALL opinions but do not quote Anti ALP types as if they are genuinely unbiased observers.

    Dragonista presented a view of the Rudd government from the perspective of Big business (say perhpas Malcolm Turnbull).

    Sure this is relevant information but you need to grasp the fact that it is seen through an LNP prism just as the views of a union activist is seen through the prism of labor oriented industrial relations.

    Are you REALLY so naive or are you just a stirrer put up by Menzies House? You sure seem more of an anti ALP type than pro just now.

  41. victoria
    Not exactly a random person, Rudd posed for the cameras with a woman in a wheelchair, giving her a cuddle as part of it. When the photo had been taken he patted her on the head as he walked away. It may have been just a thoughtless action but he should know better. I just hope that the small amount of publicity from that action makes him think about what he does in future.

  42. confessions

    paul osborne has main amongst the biggest culprits of spreading pro coalition propaganda

    hoping people remain gullible

  46. Confessions

    You are going batty now. Leave family politics out of it. Rudd’s brother is a dill pickle carrying a lot of family baggage.

    I think there have been issues since boyhood – K Rudd refused to stay at the boarding school attended by his big brother, which at a quick guess of family dynamics suggests to me that big brother was an active participant in bullying – or at least not a supportive brother.

  49. DTT:

    She was there, working with govt. Sat at the table with ministers and govt officials, and as she says, witnessed the ineffectiveness first hand. That is enough for me to take her opinions seriously.

    By all means stay in your own bubble and refuse to confront reality. That is your choice.

  50. I’ve just started to read “Stalking Julia Gillard” and feel I shall not be able to contribute much to PB for a while. Can’t seem to get into the right mood for the mandatory “Ruddster adoration”.

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