New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan this week have pushed Labor over the line into majority territory on both the seat projection and two-party preferred in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The outstanding fact of the present seat projection is that Labor continues to hold the ground where Queensland’s large clump of marginal seats is located. New state breakdowns from Newspoll and Morgan have helped iron out a few quirky results from last week, namely a four-seat loss for Labor in Victoria and a two-seat gain in Western Australia. The state projections in particular should begin to stabilise now that a deeper pool of post-leadership change data is becoming available.
UPDATE: AMR Research has a national online poll of 1107 which turns the tables on the Liberals by showing Labor 51-49 ahead on the present arrangement, but 57-43 behind if Malcolm Turnbull were leader. The primary votes are 42% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 7% for the Greens. This is AMR Research’s second foray into national political polling, the first being a poll conducted in March was roughly in line with the polling trend of the time.
UPDATE 2: ReachTEL has published results of a union-commissioned poll of federal and state voting intention in Queensland, which at federal level has Labor on 40.8%, the Coalition on 44.2%, the Greens on 4.4%, Katter’s Australian Party on 3.9% and the Palmer United Party on 4.6%. Applying 2010 election preferences to this, with everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens condensed into “others”, returns a result of 52-48 to the Coalition, a swing of 3% which if uniform would net Labor six seats. The sample size for the poll was 1613. I’ve covered the state aspects of it as an update to my earlier Queensland Newspoll post.
DTT:
You seem to have a serious problem being confronted with views you disagree with.
That is your issue, not mine.
Hello GECKO 93
Well put;I was just going to bed as past midnight over here;I fully agree with you
How are things going on the home front?
lizzie:
No such adulation from me on that front.
🙂
Gecko
I am quite serious re confessions. There are a number of posters here who while pretending to be ALP were very damaging to the overall cause. Most of those who dumped viciously on Rudd I regard as having behaved in a foolish, detrimental, anti-labor and treacherous fashion, most through naivety, rather than deliberate anti-labor intent.
Some have continued to undermine Labor, now more publicly. Of these I suspect several were always LNP plants, set up to help stir animosity in the ALP and to prevent traction on the greatest ALP story – getting us through the GFC. Dumping viciously on Rudd was the easiest way to trash that very, very good story.
Confessions is one that I suspect.
Wonder what or who Hockey will blame for the au dollar rising again
DTT
Funny I used to think the same about you as you think about Confessions,in pre Rudd days 😀
These accusations were boring when they were used against people who dumped viciously on Gillard.
Now they’re boring and hypocritical too.
dtt
And who’s fault is that?
It is the public’s.
If they vote for whoever their preferred party puts up without question, then of course the preferred party is going to take advantage of that.
If people want real political change – and better choices of political candidates – the power is in their own hands.
If they willingly vote for party hacks – and noone’s out there in voterland compelling them to do so – then they’ll get party hacks.
And that’s their democratic right. If they continue to vote for Labor (or Liberal) regardless of who the candidate is, because they can’t be bothered doing anything else, that’s their choice.
Of course parties will take advantage of that. You can’t blame them for that, any more than you can ‘blame’ the voters.
The only way to ‘fix’ this that I can see is for some third party, outside of politics, to encourage voters to cast their votes according to the quality of the candidates on offer (which of course includes looking at the policies each espouses).
lizzie
I’ve been doing the same, feel the same way.
People are just starting to wake up to the fact Rudd is a Dudd… then the polls will tighten
Hi Leone
So disappointed but not surprised Rob O is not restanding in Lyne Now off to sleep
I’ve always suspected certain Labor politicians were actually Liberal plants.
From previous thread – response to briefly.
bemused@2126 on Newspoll: 50-50 | The Poll Bludger
leone
Very nice to read one of your thoughtful posts again. 🙂
It’s a shame that some people try to practise censorship on this blog. After all, nasty carping fools like ST are “tolerated”.
DTT, you suspect confessions of being an LNP plant?
Golly, if all we can talk about here is whether the PM patted someone on the head or not, it is as silly as wondering why PMJG wore red or blue into parliament.
Surely to goodness, this is trivia of the first order.
I would posit that there is nothing Rudd has done in his actions in the last two weeks that has added one ioto of extra knowledge about Rudd for the Oz electorate that they did not already know.
And it is right here the conservatives are making their biggest mistake.
The electorate know Rudd is long-winded, short-tempered at times, nit-picking (and ear picking!), nerdy looking and probably a dozen other foibles.
So what?
I think the electorate also thinks it knows Abbott – warts and all.
The question the electorate is pondering is which of these two humans it wants as PM for the next three years.
And, without wanting to sound churlish, the general public would not give a toss whether Rudd’s desk is neat or untidy.
I really admired PMJG ability to be right across so many details which suggested a very ordered mind and person.
This was not enough apparently for the Oz public.
lizzie, “tolerated” is such a loaded word, better not to be :D.
DN
Thanks. I need the humour 😆
zoomster
I’d add that this is not necessarily a bad thing. The parliament needs a good range of people, it needs people who have policy skills and who will make good ministers just as much as it needs people who will be popular in their community or who have a prior record of service.
The cartoon from Dragonista’s piece is worth a look 🙂
Half the Labor Party is leaving because of Kev.
Two ways of looking at this… Australians can’t stand Labor anymore, or Labor can’t stand Kevin anymore
Hello Mari! OH in hospital overnight but I will hopefully have her back today. To be expected and all is going okay considering… just management of treatment induced stuff. Hopefully we will be OS ourselves next month sipping cocktails and putting on some much needed weight. Travel safe…. sounds life a terrific time from what I’ve read. All the best.
Tricot
Hence why Rudd was reinstated as leader. Ultimately, the party wants to be re elected, rather than face a wipeout
I just find it amazing that some just can’t get enthused about stopping Abbott getting into power and distroying JG’s legacy.
This seems to be the Rudd candidate for Lalor?
Bugger – destroying
Gary
Some are of the belief that Labor would have won under PMJG or a close loss. For those of us who believe otherwise, seem to be accepting the switch to Rudd. And i am no fan of Rudd. In fact, I cant bear to listen to him at the best of times. But i have accepted why the change was made. I am comfortable with him wearing a loss too
DTT
Dumping on Rudd… dumping on Julia… hands up anyone who is not guilty at one time or another. Me, you, Confessions, BB, Bemused (note I include the 2 feuding warriors deliberately) … True Believers are a passionate lot but you’ve gotta luv em either way because we are ALL diverse, ALL antsy and opinionated, ALL Labor… wouldn’t have it any other way comrade. 😉
Federal Labor Candidate forced to front up to new ICAC Inquiry:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/icac-calls-up-labor-candidate-20130710-2pqg2.html
The Labor sleeze continues…
I’ve been decisively in the wait-and-go-late camp. However, I’m starting to suspect that Labor is quickly clearing the decks so that Rudd can pull the trigger early next week (after caucus meets) with an August 31 poll. I can see a lot of reasons for that. He’s pounding tony right now. Why give the libs a chance to recover (and maybe draft Turnbull).
Also means he doesn’t have to recall parliament.
Only issue is how the regional forum gets shoe-ed in during an election campaign. Maybe that will just have to be postponed.
And since its Gough’s birthday:
Abbott’s a country member.
‘Are you REALLY so naive or are you just a stirrer put up by Menzies House? You sure seem more of an anti ALP type than pro just now.’
Just clutching at whatever straws drift her way. And ‘Dragonista’ is hardly the equivalent of Andrew Elder, being basically anti-Labor.
Vic I’m also comfortable with a close loss if it happens. Abbott will be shackled if that occurs. BTW I can’t even to begin to explain how JG could have made the election a close race. There was no way that was going to happen but that’s all over now.
Wrath, Greed, Sloth, Pride, Lust, Envy, Gluttony and Head Touching.
Lets talk about how the faceless men in the Liberal Party destroyed one man’s career and put his mother in hospital.
There may be some chosen/preferred candidates for seats but Labor and Unions have not stooped this low. Only the Liberals could do this low act.
———————————————————-
Towke is also a long-serving member of the Liberal Party. In July 2007 he won preselection for the then safe federal Liberal seat of Cook. He was set to replace the outgoing member, Bruce Baird. The contest attracted a large field, including Paul Fletcher, who recently won Liberal preselection for Bradfield (vacated by the former Liberal leader Brendan Nelson), and a former state director of the NSW Liberal party, Scott Morrison.
Towke won easily. On the first ballot, he polled 10 times as many votes as Morrison, 82 votes to 8, who was eliminated in the first round. His victory meant that a Lebanese Australian would represent the Liberal Party in the seat where the Cronulla riot and revenge raids had taken place 18 months earlier, in December 2005. ”The campaign against me started four days after preselection,” Towke said.
Two senior people within the Liberal Party, whose identity is known to a widening circle within the party, went through Towke’s nomination papers to find every possible discrepancy and weakness. Then they started calling selected journalists to tell them Towke was a liar. The first story appeared in The Daily Telegraph on July 18, 2007, under the headline, ”Liberal ballot scandal in Howard’s backyard.” Three days later, on July 21, a second story appeared in the Telegraph: ”Towke future on hold.” The next day, in The Sunday Telegraph, a third story: ”Party split as Liberal candidate faces jail.”
”That was the story that sent my mother to hospital,” Towke told me.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/society-and-culture/nasty-saga-you-nearly-missed-20091025-hem5.html#ixzz2YgoPenMP
KEVIN BONHAM – Kevin, finally caught up with your reply, on Newspoll preferences. Thanks.
Morgan State by State breakdown doesn’t paint a very pretty picture for the LNP. Will be tighter on election day. At this stage looking like another hanging or a small victory to the ALP.
Gary
I had come to the conclusion back in January, that barring a huge scandal on the tory side, Labor were going to lose big.
I know many believe Rudd and his cohorts stalking Julia was the reason etc.
I have another view. For the majority of the electorate, they digest politics as soumd bites. Nothing more. JG could not compete with Abbott, married with three daughters. Pushing the sexist line by many was counterproductive and it was backfiring.
WAZNAKI – I actually think it’s going to be a romp to labor (I know, I know). But I just imagine all those people, all over Australia, standing over their ballots with their stubby pencils wondering if they can trust tony or should stick with Rudd. I think a lot of shivers will down a lot of spines.
Anyhow off for a while. Talk later
Gary:
A couple of things …
1. As repulsive and shameful a leader as Abbott will prove, there’s not much of ‘the legacy’ that he can in practice destroy. Indeed, PMJG’s legacy on ‘boats’ is something he is going to try building on, in his own xenophobic and rightwing populist way. He is not in practice, going to be able to do much on carbon pricing, nor roll back NDIS, though he might take a swing at Gonski. Populism is a double edged-sword though so he will probably find that difficult. He’s asking for a wedge with NSW to begin with. The NBN has contracts in place and there is no rolling that back either. Regional areas and those on the urban fringes are very keen on getting it. It would be a huge overreach for him to try that. If he does get in, one suspects he will get one term only. It will be an absolute mess.
2. A victory to PMKR comes with a huge overhead since he too is repulsive and shameful. Even those who think him less repulsive and shameful than Abbott would be holding their noses. Few who fancy themselves left-of-centre like the idea that people who put their personal ambition before the bigger picture should get rewarded. Doing that in concert with the enemies of that bigger picture — in this case Murdoch, his trolls and the LNP makes it especially egregious. The idea that such a person must be hailed for abating the harm that he helped cause and can now use the party as his plaything fills many ALP folk with the sense that a bad moon is rising. Some are putting that fear to one side in the hope that Abbott’s political demise will be worth the risk, but it’s easy to see why many are not enthusiastic.
Vic, I agree. I’ve experienced those very criticisms of JG. In the last 12 months, other than a couple of very close personal friends, I had many people tell me how they hated JG. Hated.
Smaug
Regardless of “the Libs repeated reminders” you are spot on with the rest of that comments that is exactly why the public never forgave Julia.
They voted for Kevin and ended up getting Julia and they didn’t forget it. The opinion polls are now reflecting that very fact.
Thanks, poroti.
Vale, one of my earliest heroes! What an inspiration you and your colleagues were!
The Soviets’ female warriors’ feats were newsworthy in allied countries during & just after WW2; originally positively, then increasingly less so; esp in the USA, as tentacles of what became “McCarthyism” – an even more viciously rabid version of Santamaria’s Groupers, with all their intolerance of women who aspired to a life beyond “bare-foot & pregnant” – poisoned what had been a bastion of Liberty & Equality; and, in its god-bothering TeaParty renaissance, continues to do so.
But not before I fell in love with planes, flying & a vision of myself as a fighter pilot (until I had to see an opthamologist for my “erratic left eye”). If Russia’s women pilots were so successful & such outstanding heroes, and a woman was Germany’s most celebrated Test Pilot, damned if I could see why “Western Bloc” women, inc Australians, couldn’t also be fighter pilots.
Sometimes I wonder how much of my feminist activism was born of that example of white, male-suprematist arrogance!
Denigration of USSR’s women in US magazines – Look, Readers’ Digest & the like (my war bride aunt sent them to Nan) were disgracefully nasty about working women “doing men’s jobs”, from engineers & pilots, to bricklayers & street-cleaners; with nary a word about the impact of the appalling carnage, especially of males, resulting from several wars (2 World Wars), revolutions & purges on the USSR’s Western states.
Nor was that sort of carnage confined to the USSR. I recall OH’s saying to me during our first trip to Vienna: “Have you noticed there are lots of older women, but almost no men?” That would remain true across a sweep of states from the North Sea to the farthest reaches (in Russia) of the Eastern Front; as would vast, empty plains, dotted with occasional towns of tall buildings, rushed up to house those who survived the carnage – the most poignant indicator of the horrific cost of Russia’s very successful survival strategy Scorched Earth Policy
I often wonder if that male carnage explains why North European women enjoy had more successful careers sooner, esp in politics, than those from WW2’s “Allies”.
Thanks for the inspiration & determination, you wonderful Night Witches!
KEVEN-ONE the Morgan poll does indicate a romp (LNP losing around 20 seats), but usually things tighten somewhat on the day.
A small swing to Labor in Qld, NSW, SA and WA and a small swing to LNP in Vic means another hung parliament.
I much prefer Rudd, faults and all, to Abbott faults and all. If you see those two as equally bad then it comes down to policy and there Labor leaves the Libs for dead.
Gecko:
As an early admirer of Gough, I recall this jibe. I even thought it witty at the time, but it really should remain in the 1970s. It trades on a term that, IMO, non-misogynists should never adduce.
victoria
The sound bites are the point. Fed by the Rudd camp and the RW Press, a constant barrage of criticism and a determination to get rid of the Gillard government worked its poison over three years.
poroti@53
Fran
Yes, I guess you’re right.