A second Newspoll in consecutive weeks has the parties at 50-50, shifting a point in Labor’s direction on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change. Most encouragingly for Labor, they are up three points on the primary vote to 38%, although this is mostly down to a two point drop for the Greens which returns them to the 9% they were on in the last poll under Julia Gillard. The Coalition is down a point to 42%. After a rather mediocre showing the first time around, Kevin Rudd is up seven on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 36%, while Tony Abbott is unchanged at 35% and 56%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has opened up from 49-35 to 53-31. A question on election timing reflects Essential Research in finding a preference for sooner rather than later, although 41% were happy to sign on to the option of not having a preference.
Full tables here courtesty of GhostWhoVotes. Apologies for my tardiness in relating all this – I was a victim of the power blackout which struck Melbourne’s hipster belt last night.
UPDATE (11/7): Newspoll has pleasingly provided state-by-state breakdowns combining this week’s and last week’s polling, and while only primary votes are provided, applying 2010 preference flows to them and rounding to the nearest half a point gives results of 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition in New South Wales; 51-49 to Labor in Victoria; 54.5-45.5 to the Coalition in Queensland; 56-44 to the Coalition in Western Australia; and 51.5-48.5 to Labor in South Australia. This supports the impression from the state breakdowns in the BludgerTrack sidebar, which were calculated off a weak base of data, that the leadership change has meant big gains for Labor in New South Wales but little or no gain in Victoria. However, the gain in Queensland is smaller than might have been expected. Labor is well up in the smaller states, though the samples here would have been small. The primary vote numbers can be perused on GhostWhoVotes’ Twitter feed. This data will be put to use in the next instalment of BludgerTrack, which will hopefully be posted late this evening.
UPDATE 2: Now Morgan comes to the state breakdowns party, with results from its most recent multi-mode poll (the one showing Labor well in front) showing 54.5-45.5 to Labor in New South Wales, 56.5-43.5 to Labor in Victoria, 57-43 to Labor in Queensland (!), 56-44 to the Coalition in Western Australia, 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition in South Australia and 52-48 to Labor in Tasmania, from samples ranging from 1070 in New South Wales to 150 in Tasmania. Read all about it.
‘Rudd must recall Parliament immediately if he will not name an election date!
He is scared of Abbott’
Sean, I get it – you are a parody of a coalition troll. Well done!
I’m not sure Mr Abbott would be demanding a Laurie Oakes or a Paul Kelly to “calm down”.
I think Mr Abbotts instincts of ‘dominance’ got the better of him.
bw
The result is PMKR is getting Labor policy done. The complaints we have heard that he simultaneously works too hard and blocks getting work done.
Rudd result is Labor in power and LNP not.
Australia will survive Rudd as PM. I am not so sure about Abbott as PM
On Rudd sucking oxygen from our Labor Government:
‘On 1 August Rudd’s heart operation gets full media attention,…. It’s routine surgery7, but his family are marshalled at the hospital and wife Therese Rein is at the ready with a media quote…
Few other MPs would thrust their medical lives into centre stage in such a public manner. Many have and will continue to endure cancers, heart problems, mental illnesses and a range of other medical conditions, and endure their ailments quietly. The three-ring circus that is Rudd Inc. plays to the crowd with such regularity that his limelight-hogging behaviour is normalised. The only thing his colleagues can do is grit their teeth and watch with fascinated horror.’
Walsh
Reforms are bad because clearly Rudd is Hitler, therefore anything he supports is bad.
Hypocrisy check – people saying Rudd’s clearly appalling behaviour of his staff is irrelevant are the same ones who would crucify Abbott if similar details were to emerge of his behaviour. No doubt citing it as evidence of his explosive violent temper and general instability which make him an unsuitable candidate for PM.
Rudd is doing well, but let’s not pretend he’s something he’s not. People have welcomed him back DESPITE his obvious flaws, not in ignorance of them.
Spray of the day about Abbott comes from a comment in the Aus Grauniad.
[The reason the polls indicate a large swing back to Labor is because.The Mad Monk is a lazy, useless, ambitious, born to rule, conceited, arrogant little man who excels in mediocrity and whose stupidity is only exceeded by his lack of intelligence. He is inarticulate, negative and lacking in sincerity. He is an intellectual rust bucket and suffers from a constipated brain—————–other than his selfish ambition he has nothing to offer whatsoever. He is a cold-blooded, calculating, unprincipled usurper, without a virtue; no statesman, knowing nothing of commerce, political economy, or civil government, and supplying ignorance by bold presumption.]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/08/kevin-rudd-bolster-labor-pms
Not going to retract the ‘mentally ill’ statement Boerwar, or provide any evidence?
You are as gutless as Abbott!
“@latikambourke: Tasmania the latest state to sign up to the Commonwealth’s national funding plan for schools. @ABCNews24 standing by for Minister Shorten.”
Briefly
Maybe you should take your own advice at top paragraph post 141.
I predicted that the AUD would fall well before you AND you made numerous posts predicting that Australia is heading towards a recession.
I know that for a fact because I responded to many of your posts where you made those claims.
If you want to backtrack…do it, I really couldn’t care less – truly!
I’ll let you get the last word in, I’d rather that than responding any further – you are a yawn!
I watched that video where abbott told that reporter to calm down
and to no surprise to me to see in the background Hockey was covered in later of sweat
Amused how some seem to think politics should be under Marquess of Queensberry rules.
Its a tough hard business with massive egos and undermining bastards everywhere. You want a friend in politics – get a dog, is the old saying.
I have a feeling most people dont harbour ill feeling toward Rudd and the polls are showing it.
He is also showing that he is a devestating campaigner, has taken the high ground, and initiative, has rattled the opposition, and they are on the back foot.
Abbott is looking tired and stressed as this reality is coming home to roost. The MSM is giving Rudd and Labor a good run and Abbott is loking more and more Rudderless (excuse the pun).
Dredging up making sooky hosties cry and pink batts only show the desperation of the LNP while Rudd has shot holes in their only policy which is to start an international incident with Indonesia.
Things are looking grimm for the LNP as the Labor ace campaigner gets into gear. They are on the back foot and it seems the momentum has swung totally.
lather of sweat i mean 🙂
g
‘The result is PMKR is getting Labor policy done.’
Despite the usual modus operandi of Rudd’s MSM Faffstorm, I am not aware of a single substantive difference actually delivered by Rudd since his Resurrection: apart, that is, from re-naming Gonski and re-badging of the NDIS as Rudd’s original idea.
Not a single substantive change to public policy. Not one.
Observers of the Late First Ruddan Empire period will recall that the routine of government business was a Rudd-instigated MSM faffstorm combined with little or no real substantive progress.
Have we forgotten the shambles of AGW response, the MRRT, the MDB Plan shambles, the health reform mayhem, the failure of the grandiose Defence White Paper… etc, etc…
guytaur @ 138
[Sean
Your comedy is getting better. Keep it up you may get to professional stand up yet.]
Perhaps he should have his own ‘Tonight Show’ … or perhaps more fittingly, his own hate and bigotry-filled talkback radio show on 2GB?
BW
The reason Rudd’s hear operation was of interest was because of the hung parliament and the fact he had a marginal seat. I feel sure that there would have been media interest if any marginal or independent MP had heart surgery.
You really are stretching at straws for support.
So, who’s right, centre….you or Gail Kelly?
Sean Tisme reminds me of an annoying mosquito.
Has anyone got the mortein handy? 👿
DTR I thought Rudd’s operation was before the election?
J
‘Amused how some seem to think politics should be under Marquess of Queensberry rules.’
Not really. We have been ‘taught’ not to expect decency, integrity, honesty, respect for others, committment to values, principles and policies. Like sheep, most of us accept it as ‘normal’.
The opposite of all these qualities are embodied by Rudd and Abbott: take your pick.
But there is no particular reason why we should continue to accept utter cynicism, casual and serial dishonesty, disloyalty, an utter lack of integrity, routinely bastard behaviour to peers and subordinates, a lack of committment to values, principles and policies as acceptable.
I don’t accept it any more.
I exhort everyone who is sick to death of narcissists and sociopaths rising to the top of our nation’s political life because they have whatever it takes to stop supporting them in the ballot box: find a decent independent instead or vote informal.
Is it me, or does the Oppo seem more like an Oppo thesedays ?
BW
Hm!!! in less than two weeks Ridd seems to have made a good start in reforming the ALP, got a communique with Indonesia regarding AS and an agreement to a regional forum, progressed the Gonski and NDIS, held several cabinet meeting at which some big issues have clearly been discussed if not finalised.
If this is dysfunctional government GIVE ME MOORE!!!
If Rudd keeps Abbott from entering The Lodgei will be eternally grateful. Full stop.
Nah I’m wrong again 🙁
guytaur,
Iread they are actually expanding in to international markets as well.
davidwh@169
I may be wrong, but my recollection is it was gall bladder op after the coup but before the election and heart surgery after the election.
[Winning is everything. Apparently.]
It is if you want to preserve policies you firmly believe in.
Bemused you are correct. Apparently it took them another 12 months to find his heart.
Sorry.
David
No it was mid 2011. He actually went off line for 6 weeks or so, giving Gillard the “clear air” she demanded – Walsh as usual being a little selective with the truth.
Rudd was off the radar for 6 weeks or more. Just about the time she Carbon Taxed herself into a bit of difficulty.
Bemused
You are right
‘ We have been ‘taught’ not to expect decency, integrity, honesty, respect for others, committment to values, principles and policies. Like sheep, most of us accept it as ‘normal’.’
Look in the mirror cry baby. This coming from someone who can refer to another person as ‘mentally ill’ and worse, but when challenged refuses to either retract or provide proof.
What about your ‘honesty’, ‘respect’ etc etc, hypocrite?
BW
Out of curiosity
Have you ever MET Rudd?
Gary,
You and I used to disagree about Rudd. Then you and I used to disagree about the timing of Rudd.
Now we just agree.
Tas Premier Giddings on now 24
Borewar@170
Bore war, why don’t you take your rants to Bullshit Bill’s Blog of Batshit Insanity where I am sure you will find a more appreciative audience?
Out of interest, does anyone know if (without a war or terrorist attack) a government’s poll numbers have ever gone UP this much this quickly?
[164 Boerwar
Posted Tuesday, July 9, 2013 at 3:08 pm | Permalink
g
‘The result is PMKR is getting Labor policy done.’
Despite the usual modus operandi of Rudd’s MSM Faffstorm, I am not aware of a single substantive difference actually delivered by Rudd since his Resurrection: apart, that is, from re-naming Gonski and re-badging of the NDIS as Rudd’s original idea.
Not a single substantive change to public policy. Not one.
Observers of the Late First Ruddan Empire period will recall that the routine of government business was a Rudd-instigated MSM faffstorm combined with little or no real substantive progress.
Have we forgotten the shambles of AGW response, the MRRT, the MDB Plan shambles, the health reform mayhem, the failure of the grandiose Defence White Paper… etc, etc…]
Come on, mate. Give it a rest. You becoming too obsessive with KR. Whatever his faults and whatever he has done, the main game game is to defeat the Libs and Tony Abbott. If we can do that and if we can improve on the policies that we have put in place for the last 5-6 years, we going to make Australia a better place to live in. Thats the main game and all of us should be focussed on this.
Going through your archieve and pulling out the dirt on KR does us no favours and supplies the Libs with material to attack us, the progressive side of politics. This makes no sense and is just scoring an own goal just for the sake of it. Stop, Boerwar!!
Gary Morgan discusses his latest poll with 2GB
http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/10173
with bonus lead in by Steve Price dissing Kevin Rudd. For those who haven’t tasted the delights of 2GB, this gives an insight…
Bill Shorten looks a lot more relaxed in his education presser
‘The rats in the ranks haven’t let the grass grow under their feet since the High Court junked the Malaysia Solution. The Rudd forces have decided to seize the opportunity to ramp up the pressure and have been backgrounding journalists about the alleged dissension in cabinet ranks. Senior Gillard loyalists believe that in the last forty-eight hours Rudd has set his time on a countdown for a lunge back at his old job. They expect the burn to increase, but they firmly believe it iwll hit a dead end unless themdiea give and his small force oxygen.
on cure, a hefty blast of hot air pumps up news reporting this second day of spring. Gillard would not be a happy prime minister as she wakens to the fruits of Team Ruddd’s labours, with a rash of media outlets reporting that her time is up.’
Rudd white-anting a Labor Government.
Walsh.
It’s amazing how Abbott brings people together BG. Lol.
adrian,
Self appointed moralists like you are the most dreary posters of all.
Really, no one gives a toss about you tapping your foot, arms crossed as you expect others to conform to your perverted view of the righteous world.
guytaur
Posted Tuesday, July 9, 2013 at 3:23 pm | PERMALINK
Tas Premier Giddings on now 24
—————————
Its another boot into Abbott and his cronies
Patrick
Just for you.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/flood-hero-anna-bligh-turns-the-tide-with-the-greatest-recovery-in-newspoll-history/story-fn59niix-1226027044987
‘The coming election campaign will be a platform for every budding new Laurie Oakes or Michelle Grattan to make their name by getting Tony Abbott to say something ignorant, sexist or stupid.’
Come come, Iwouldn;t rule out Tone’s giving us a trifecta;
ignorant, sexist AND stupid..
davidwh@178
No apology sought or required.
Rudd has never sought sympathy, but, based on experience with a close relative, I believe he would have been a very sick man in the lead up to that gall bladder operation and the sandwich issue may have assumed greater than usual significance because of a medical ordered diet.
Some other extremes of behaviour in that period might also be attributable to that. Maybe he needed sick leave rather than dumping. A sensitive deputy would have picked up on such things and acted.
Please note you are now watching a Green Minister
Sean Tisme is a bit like Meguire Bob except that Bob is right and Sean is wrong.
BTW Bob is the only consistent poster on here who is likely to be proved 100% correct when the election is called.
Psephs of the world, hold your collective heads in shame.
daretotread@180
As occasionally happens. 😉
Rudd vanquished the Rodent and is set to do Tony.
He will truly dwell amongst gods if this comes to pass.
Here endeth the lesson.