Newspoll: 50-50

A second Newspoll in consecutive weeks finds Labor up three points on the primary vote and a surge in Kevin Rudd’s approval rating, although a drop for the Greens blunts the impact somewhat on two-party preferred.

A second Newspoll in consecutive weeks has the parties at 50-50, shifting a point in Labor’s direction on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change. Most encouragingly for Labor, they are up three points on the primary vote to 38%, although this is mostly down to a two point drop for the Greens which returns them to the 9% they were on in the last poll under Julia Gillard. The Coalition is down a point to 42%. After a rather mediocre showing the first time around, Kevin Rudd is up seven on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 36%, while Tony Abbott is unchanged at 35% and 56%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has opened up from 49-35 to 53-31. A question on election timing reflects Essential Research in finding a preference for sooner rather than later, although 41% were happy to sign on to the option of not having a preference.

Full tables here courtesty of GhostWhoVotes. Apologies for my tardiness in relating all this – I was a victim of the power blackout which struck Melbourne’s hipster belt last night.

UPDATE (11/7): Newspoll has pleasingly provided state-by-state breakdowns combining this week’s and last week’s polling, and while only primary votes are provided, applying 2010 preference flows to them and rounding to the nearest half a point gives results of 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition in New South Wales; 51-49 to Labor in Victoria; 54.5-45.5 to the Coalition in Queensland; 56-44 to the Coalition in Western Australia; and 51.5-48.5 to Labor in South Australia. This supports the impression from the state breakdowns in the BludgerTrack sidebar, which were calculated off a weak base of data, that the leadership change has meant big gains for Labor in New South Wales but little or no gain in Victoria. However, the gain in Queensland is smaller than might have been expected. Labor is well up in the smaller states, though the samples here would have been small. The primary vote numbers can be perused on GhostWhoVotes’ Twitter feed. This data will be put to use in the next instalment of BludgerTrack, which will hopefully be posted late this evening.

UPDATE 2: Now Morgan comes to the state breakdowns party, with results from its most recent multi-mode poll (the one showing Labor well in front) showing 54.5-45.5 to Labor in New South Wales, 56.5-43.5 to Labor in Victoria, 57-43 to Labor in Queensland (!), 56-44 to the Coalition in Western Australia, 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition in South Australia and 52-48 to Labor in Tasmania, from samples ranging from 1070 in New South Wales to 150 in Tasmania. Read all about it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,126 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 1 of 43
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  4. I can’t believe we have to deal with this absolute moron AGAIN!

    We couldn’t vote him out in 2010 because the ALP wouldn’t let us… then we couldn’t vote out Gillard because the ALP wouldn’t let us… now we got this idiot again and everyone has such short memories we forgot we were going to dump him in 2010 because of the disaster his government was.

    FFS what is wrong with this country? If we elect this douche blast again in 6 months everyone will be scratching their heads wondering how they could have forgotten how completely useless Rudd was.

  6. In Rudds first poll back he had 28% undecided over his performance.

    7% of these made their mind up. They all broke to Rudd. not a single % point against. And the 2PP shifted.

    If any more of these undecideds shift, then I suggest that the 2PP can shift a bit more. Usually undecideds for performance stays around 10-12%, that means there is still about 10% still to form a view.

  9. [4
    Sean Tisme

    I can’t believe we have to deal with this absolute moron AGAIN!]

    I’m swinging around to Rudd-luv purely for the derangement value. Maintain the ranting, b-t. So funny!!

  11. [Why would people vote for the Labor shenanigans of the last 6 years, for another 3 years]

    Further: maybe its because the Coalition is led by a clueless bully boy who couldn’t lie straight in bed…. is negative… is divisive… full of slogans and full of shit?

    Or, that the alternative represents a return to a past already rejected… y’know little things like: AWB, Never ever, Children Overboard, War on a Lie, Higher tax, 7 interest rate rises in a row, No Infrastructure spend, No Education spend, No Health spend, Profligate waste to get reelected… simple stuff like that.

    Just tossing it out there.

  12. The question is this:

    ‘Did Abbott use Commonwealth property for personal gain?’

    If so, he has committed a crime.

  13. From Previous thread.

    bemused@1131 on Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition; Morgan 54.5-45.5 to Labor | The Poll Bludger

    bluegreen@1115

    Bemused

    I have noted some things.

    Especially the positioning from the Rudds ad about “Australians want a positive political blah blah blah”.

    Just think through the logic of the rhetoric.

    Australians want a positive blah blah blah

    Unsaid in this is:
    We currently have a negative political landscape.
    But who is causing this negative political landscape?
    Well if it is not Kevin Rudd (cause he is saying this), then who is it?

    Then next time Abbott speaks, he answers Rudd’s unsaid question about who is causing the negativity. And thus reinforcing Rudd as the one to fix the negativity.

    Its pretty clever.

    Yes, I think part of the cleverness is that when the Libs release their torrent of negative advertising it will just reinforce Rudd’s message and rebound badly on them. The more they spend, the worse it will get.

  14. Twitter is going troppo with stuff like this.

    @TonyAbbottMHR It’s time YOU calmed down and answered LEGITIMATE questions about YOUR conduct as anaspiring PM. #calmdownbridie

  15. @briefly/10

    I was talking with my parents other day about Rudd needing another set of stimulus, they agreed.

    Some other changes are needed as well.

  16. briefly

    I’m swinging around to Rudd-luv purely for the derangement value. Maintain the ranting, b-t. So funny!!

    ST is a plant trying to give doubters reasons (like ST moving to NZ) to convert to Ruddism.

  17. ST
    “”FFS what is wrong with this country? “”

    Absolutely NOTHING!.

    The only thing holding this country back, is a useless OPPOSITION!,they keep saying NO NO NO!.

  21. Sean Tisme: “We couldn’t vote him out in 2010 because the ALP wouldn’t let us… then we couldn’t vote out Gillard because the ALP wouldn’t let us… now we got this idiot again and everyone has such short memories we forgot we were going to dump him in 2010 because of the disaster his government was.”

    It’s fairly simple really. If you don’t like the Labor party after the last 6 years of shenanigans, you can vote Liberal.

    Alternatively, if you also don’t like the Labor party after the last 6 years of shenanigans, you can vote Labor and watch them choke on Rudd for another 3 years – only this time, it’s guaranteed!

    It’s a tough call for any voter.

  22. Now would be a good time for the coalition to release all their (is it 50?) fully costed policies.
    …
    They haven’t been telling lies, have they?
    Oops, thats a bit embarrassing.

  24. [16
    DisplayName

    briefly

    I’m swinging around to Rudd-luv purely for the derangement value. Maintain the ranting, b-t. So funny!!

    ST is a plant trying to give doubters reasons (like ST moving to NZ) to convert to Ruddism.]

    It’s very entertaining.

  27. Would someone who uses twitter please ask Emma Griffiths why the ABC took 3 days to report on Abbott’s rorting of expenses.

  28. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 4m

    Seeney makes humiliating backflip on politicians pay. Blaming union bosses in 3…..2…….1…..

  31. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 41s

    Seeney claims he wasn’t aware that Ministers pay goes up too and that’s what changed his mind. o_O WTF is that? The “I was a dope” excuse?

  32. I thought I would go and check the Plan to see what the Liberals say their policies are on asylum seekers. But, to read the full Plan online you have to become a ‘premium reader’. Single day cost = $9.

    I wouldn’t give a brass razoo to read it so I am either none the wiser or no less ignorant than I was before.

    Looking at Morrison the general Liberal Plan seems to be to cover boat borne asylum seekers with spittle in order to encourage them to go back and get raped, robbed, tortured or murdered in their homelands.

  33. Chris O’Brien ‏@ChrisOBrienABC 6m

    Acting Prem @JeffSeeney wasn’t aware that ministerial and premieral pay would also go up by 42% , that’s what’s changed his mind. @abcnews
    Retweeted by Possum Comitatus

  35. [I thought I would go and check the Plan to see what the Liberals say their policies are on asylum seekers. But, to read the full Plan online you have to become a ‘premium reader’. Single day cost = $9.]

    Is it normal for a party to charge for access to a policy statement? Sounds like the LNP don’t want people to know what their ‘policy’ is.

  36. The ABC is now more pro-Abbott than Murdoch. Opening lines from the pie company interview:

    [ABC: Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has accused Prime Minister Kevin Rudd of organising a dirt campaign against him over an incorrect claim for travel expenses.

    Telegraph: OPPOSITION leader Tony Abbott has come under fire after telling a female journalist to “calm down” when questioned on claims for travel expenses he was asked to repay following his Battlelines book tour. (rest of article paywalled)]

    Is Murdoch switching? Has the ABC been told yet?

  38. Hmm, that’s about the most analytical post you’ve written Bluegreen 😉

    It looked real good two posts down from Tisme 😆

  40. It seems to me that PMKRs proposal to amend the manner in which leaders are chosen for the parliamentary party, if I understand it correctly, may well be a worthwhile reform. I suspect the threshhold is too high — 75% for a spill is catastrophe territory. 60% is plenty. I assume, though I don’t know ‘weighted vote’ implies that ultimately the two form a single ‘electorate’ so that if the leader was popular with caucus then it wouldn’t be a veto, as much as requiring a much more decisive vote for a change and vice versa.

    What this episode does affirm, again, is that Tony Abbott and his advisers are politically inept. Abbott’s response was that {PMKR} was only doing this to protect himself against the factions.

    Ya think? In one pithy grab, Abbott declared that his opponent was taking up the fight against the factions and faceless men that were of such concern to people in his view and allowed that that the measure might be successful. PMKR really ought to send Abbott some flowers.

    Really, whatever PMKRs motives, having Abbott endorse his fight must be a huge bonus.

  42. Bemused
    Thanks but I must decline!

    If they do have policies stuffed in a drawer somewhere then Rabbott has left himself wide open.

    A successful challenger to Rabbott’s leadership could walk in and differentiate themselves from Rabbott by simply producing those alleged policies. 😀
    Note: alleged 😀

  43. Boerwar @ 32

    [I wouldn’t give a brass razoo to read it so I am either none the wiser or no less ignorant than I was before.]

    If you had read it you would probably end up considerably more ignorant.

  44. From the previous thread:

    889
    Gary
    [I actually think dumping Rudd was the right thing to do for the party just as I believe dumping Gillard and reinstalling Rudd was the right thing for the party this time.]

    Indeed.

    Doesn’t seemed to have occurred to a few here that a little justified humiliation and some enforced time in the political desert for Rudd to take a long hard look at himself, while Gillard, et al, got on with actually running a very effective government and doing the hard practical yards to help cement in place much of Rudd’s own agenda, (and paying the hard political price for it,)… That all this might just be the real political making of Rudd, that this is what will give him the chance to evolve, mature, differentiate himself from Abbott, and show he is a real leader.

    How would history have treated him (and Labor) if he had seriously crashed and burned, and dealt himself completely out of the game, the first time around? Especially if it had happened before the 2010 election?

    It is a serious possibility that Rudd is going to be a much better leader for it. Not to mention Labor (independently) being a much more effective political force for it, no matter how painful it has been.

    Interestingly, and of more than passing relevance and significance, one point on which I think Rudd can easily and legitimately differentiate himself from Abbott is sexism/misogyny. Whatever his faults, I see no significant evidence Rudd suffers from that.

    One thing Gillard could never do, as the first female PM (and unmarried, living in sin, childless, etc), is neutralise that issue, especially with somebody like Abbott as her opponent who was determined to milk it for all he could. Rudd’s re-ascension has largely killed of that as a major negative for Labor.

  45. bluegreen@6

    In Rudds first poll back he had 28% undecided over his performance.

    7% of these made their mind up. They all broke to Rudd. not a single % point against. And the 2PP shifted.

    If any more of these undecideds shift, then I suggest that the 2PP can shift a bit more. Usually undecideds for performance stays around 10-12%, that means there is still about 10% still to form a view.

    If the undecideds on PM approval keep shifting to Rudd then the Labor 2PP is likely to rise in the short term. PM net satisfaction is a leading indicator (in both senses) of 2PP change.

  46. FB
    [I suspect the threshhold is too high — 75% for a spill is catastrophe territory.]

    Yes, it is much too high. Even a real lemon can’t be removed if that’s the requirement. Someone on News 24 said earlier that it’s 75% who believe the leader is bringing the party into disrepute, which might be a harsh assessment even for a pretty bad leader.

  48. Briefly, you are hilarious.

    Go back to the last thread and find the post I made relating to information on the outlook of the Australian economy in a Newsletter addressed to Westpac Shareholders.

    You should learn to read proper formguides written by real experts 😉

  49. For any deluded souls here who still don’t think 457 visas are a major rort, I suggest you read this: NAB staff call for truth on IT job cuts
    [An employee said: “It annoyed me because (NAB chief) Cameron Clyne has said it’s ‘(restructuring) being handled through natural attrition’, which is absolute bullshit because they’re actually making people redundant.”

    Another staff member said “it’s coming close to 100 people” who’ve been asked to go.

    Their positions, mainly in IT testing, will be replaced by Indian IT firm Infosys.
    …

    Another NAB worker claimed their role would be replaced by foreign skilled labour on 457 visas via Infosys. The spokesman declined to comment on the 457 visas but said: “Infosys is the primary provider of testing services to NAB, with the relationship into its fifth year as part of our strategy to partner with global experts.”]
    So there you are, not a case of importation of skilled workers to make up a skills shortage, but Australians being displaced from the jobs they are in by cheap foreign labour.

    And further down.
    [Many IT workers are in the firing line because of more outsourcing and offshoring as firms rush to protect profits amid softening economic sentiment.

    As reported in The Australian last month, IBM Australia is using various techniques to slash costs, including ramping up on 457 visas, sending jobs offshore and downsizing offices as it retrenches 1400 workers. IBM was relying on recruitment firm Manpower to hire workers from India on 457 visas to be based in Australia. Some of them have commodity IT skills such as with Microsoft Windows and Citrix. The computing giant said it fully complied with 457 visa laws.]
    So no attempt to hire locally, just straight to bringing in overseas workers as cheap labour.

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